olivLaw · European equity research
Neste Oyj NESTE.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Neste Oyj (NESTE.HE) stock was 27.57 EUR (−2.10% on the day), with market capitalisation 20.9 bn EUR, P/E 145.1 on diluted EPS of 0.19 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.73%, beta 0.00, 52-week range 15.97–35.82 EUR.
Data as of · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 31.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 26.88 – 34.04
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.10 · band width 23.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 32.02 / 28.27
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.26 / -0.94
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −13.7% | +0.4% | −14.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.0% | −3.3% | +0.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +1.0% | +4.0% | −2.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +43.3% | +8.1% | +35.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +61.6% | +10.7% | +50.9 pp | −1.2% |
| 3 years | −15.2% | +50.1% | −65.3 pp | +6.8% |
| 5 years | −44.8% | +43.6% | −88.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 101.3, median 101.3, max 101.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20.6 bn | 19.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −7.8% |
| Net income | -95.0 m | 144.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.12 | 0.19 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -0.5% | 0.8% |
| Free cash flow | -371.0 m | 837.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.4 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 7.3 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 15.7 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.89x
- ROE
- 2.0%
- ROA
- 0.9%
- FCF margin
- 4.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20.6 bn | 19.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 25.0 m | 503.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 156.0 m | 205.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -113.0 m | 199.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -19.0 m | 55.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -95.0 m | 144.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.12 | 0.19 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.20 | 0.20 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 955.0 m | 1.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 5.6 bn | 5.8 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 514.0 m | 478.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 164.0 m | 130.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 15.6 bn | 15.7 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.2 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 8.2 bn | 8.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 7.4 bn | 7.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 791.7 m | 757.9 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.5 bn | 910.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -371.0 m ≈ | 837.0 m ≈ | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.5 bn | -988.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -314.0 m | -312.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 20.9 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1.56 – 3.71 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E1.56 – 3.51 (Mid 2.11)23 companies used · median multiple 11.1x · quartiles 8.2x – 18.5xALMA.HE, APETIT.HE, ASPO.HE, ATRAV.HE, BIOBV.HE, CAPMAN.HE, CONSTI.HE, DIGIA.HE, ELEAV.HE, ELISA.HE, ENENTO.HE, ETTE.HE, FORTUM.HE, FSECURE.HE, GLA1V.HE, GRK.HE, HARVIA.HE, ICP1V.HE, ILKKA.HE, INVEST.HE, KALMAR.HE, KAMUX.HE, KCR.HE
- Dividend discount (DDM)2.72 – 3.71 (Mid 3.14)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.8% | 38 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 581.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 15 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 90 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 145.1x | 4 (vs peers) | 25% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.0% | 50 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet45/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality69/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation24/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Neste Oyj (NESTE.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 19.0 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -7.8%; net margin 0.8%; ROE 2.0%.
The estimated value range is 2.14–3.61 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.62 EUR, the price of 27.57 EUR leaves a potential of -90.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -950.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 581.2%
- Current ratio: 1.9x
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.5x
- P/E (TTM): 145.1x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NESTE.HENeste Oyj | 20.9 bn | 145.1 | 2.0% | 0.8% | −7.8% | +66% / −21% |
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NESTE.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 14.74 Total return -46% · Per year -46% | 26.19 Total return -4% · Per year -4% | 39.63 Total return 45% · Per year 45% |
| 3 years | 11.70 Total return -56% · Per year -24% | 23.64 Total return -12% · Per year -4% | 39.63 Total return 46% · Per year 13% |
| 5 years | 9.29 Total return -64% · Per year -19% | 21.33 Total return -20% · Per year -4% | 39.63 Total return 48% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 5.91
- Net margin± 4.14
- Annual revenue growth± 3.74
- Annual dilution± 0.35
AI analysis
The qualitative analysis has not been written for this company yet.
Products, market & competition
The qualitative analysis has not been written for this company yet.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.