olivLaw · European equity research
Ponsse Oyj PON1V.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
Ponsse Oyj designs and sells forest machines, together with service and spare parts, across several regions of the world. In fiscal 2025 revenue was 749.9 million EUR, while new orders fell slightly from the prior year. The main issue for investors is how the company maintains its profit margin in a more uncertain demand environment.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Ponsse Oyj (PON1V.HE) stock was 18.90 EUR (−3.08% on the day), with market capitalisation 528.7 m EUR, P/E 17.3 on diluted EPS of 1.09 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.65%, beta 0.24, 52-week range 18.90–27.30 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 26.5
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 18.54 – 22.09
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.10 · band width 17.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 22.16 / 23.51
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.85 / -0.82
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −16.0% | +0.4% | −16.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −19.9% | −3.3% | −16.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −16.7% | +4.0% | −20.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −27.0% | +8.1% | −35.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −20.9% | +10.7% | −31.6 pp | −1.2% |
| 3 years | −20.3% | +50.1% | −70.3 pp | +6.8% |
| 5 years | −58.2% | +43.6% | −101.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 23.8, median 33.7, max 44.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 821.8 m | 750.4 m | 749.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −8.7% | −0.1% |
| Net income | 18.9 m | 12.5 m | 30.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −33.8% | +143.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.67 | 0.45 | 1.09 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −32.8% | +142.2% |
| net % | 2.3% | 1.7% | 4.1% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 58.1 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 338.2 m EUR
- Total assets
- 571.4 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.41x
- ROE
- 9.2%
- ROA
- 5.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 821.8 m | 750.4 m | 749.9 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 47.2 m | 36.8 m | 41.6 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 31.3 m | 36.0 m | 35.2 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 78.5 m ≈ | 72.8 m ≈ | 76.8 m ≈ | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 42.9 m | 21.5 m | 40.0 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 12.9 m | 9.0 m | 9.5 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 18.9 m | 12.5 m | 30.5 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.67 | 0.45 | 1.09 | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 74.0 m | 83.6 m | 58.1 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 98.4 m | 78.0 m | 92.1 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 240.8 m | 219.1 m | 240.0 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 414.4 m | 381.7 m | 398.8 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 6.7 m | 6.5 m | 6.6 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 52.7 m | 48.2 m | 42.9 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 606.0 m | 563.1 m | 571.4 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 141.4 m | 121.8 m | 135.1 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 210.2 m | 165.6 m | 165.8 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 321.8 m | 327.2 m | 338.2 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 28.2 m | 27.8 m | 28.0 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 528.7 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 6.80 – 20.16 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E8.98 – 20.16 (Mid 12.10)23 companies used · median multiple 11.1x · quartiles 8.2x – 18.5xALMA.HE, APETIT.HE, ASPO.HE, ATRAV.HE, BIOBV.HE, CAPMAN.HE, CONSTI.HE, DIGIA.HE, ELEAV.HE, ELISA.HE, ENENTO.HE, ETTE.HE, FORTUM.HE, FSECURE.HE, GLA1V.HE, GRK.HE, HARVIA.HE, ICP1V.HE, ILKKA.HE, INVEST.HE, KALMAR.HE, KAMUX.HE, KCR.HE
- Dividend discount (DDM)6.80 – 9.27 (Mid 7.85)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.1% | 51 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.3x | 43 (vs peers) | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.6% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial51/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial38/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial43/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Ponsse Oyj (PON1V.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 749.9 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth -0.1%; net margin 4.1%; ROE 9.2%.
The estimated value range is 7.89–14.72 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 9.97 EUR, the price of 18.90 EUR leaves a potential of -47.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -89.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.4x
What contradicts it
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| PON1V.HEPonsse Oyj | 528.7 m | 17.3 | 9.2% | 4.1% | −0.1% | −26% / −19% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PON1V.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 10.66 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 18.89 Total return 3% · Per year 3% | 28.51 Total return 54% · Per year 54% |
| 3 years | 9.41 Total return -45% · Per year -18% | 18.86 Total return 8% · Per year 3% | 31.39 Total return 76% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 8.32 Total return -47% · Per year -12% | 18.83 Total return 13% · Per year 2% | 34.55 Total return 100% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 4.71
- Net margin± 3.30
- Annual revenue growth± 2.83
- Annual dilution± 0.28
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Ponsse Oyj designs and sells forest machines, together with service and spare parts, across several regions of the world. In fiscal 2025 revenue was 749.9 million EUR 1, while new orders fell slightly from the prior year. The main issue for investors is how the company maintains its profit margin in a more uncertain demand environment 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A relatively solid balance sheet, with high equity and liquidity secured through bank credit facilities without financial covenants 1.
- Own sales and service network across several continents, supporting customer relationships 1.
- Skilled staff and modern production, declared as key competitive assets 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Weaker demand for forest machineshigh
Global economic uncertainty could reduce orders, especially in emerging markets 1.
- Loss-making service contractsmedium
The Brazilian service contract generated losses, and the risk could reappear if other long-term contracts are not profitable 1.
- Tariffs and trade restrictionsmedium
Trade measures can raise costs and limit access to export markets 1.
- Currency volatilitymedium
Exchange rate fluctuations can affect revenue and results in markets outside the euro area 1.
- Cyber and supply chain riskslow
Cyber attacks and supply chain interruptions can delay production and deliveries 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for forest machines recovers, the order backlog and margins could improve quickly, and the solid balance sheet provides room for manoeuvre.
- The gradual rise in operating margin shows that efficiency measures can deliver results, especially if costs stay under control.
- The service network and recurring service revenue could stabilise income in periods of weak demand.
What would break the thesis
- The order backlog fell significantly from the prior year, which could limit revenue in the years ahead.
- The operating margin remains low, and any demand or cost shock could quickly affect results.
- Exposure to emerging markets and trade tariffs could increase revenue volatility.
What to watch
- Development of new orders and the order backlogQ1 2027
- Operating margin and the effect of personnel costs2026
- Development in the South American market after the loss-making contracts2026
- Impact of tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty on exportsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Ponsse Oyj is a Finnish company that handles forest machines, service and spare parts. Its sales and service organisation is structured across five market areas: Nordics and Baltics, Central and Southern Europe, South America, North America, and Asia, Australia and Africa 1. In fiscal 2025 the company reported revenue of 749.9 million EUR and an operating profit of 41.6 million EUR 1.
Revenue comes from sales of new machines and from long-term service contracts, which bring steadier income. The company says its competitive advantage rests on skilled staff, modern production, a flexible supply chain and relationships with key suppliers 1. At the end of fiscal 2025 it had 2,117 employees 1.
The balance sheet is relatively solid: the equity ratio was 59.5 percent at the end of 2025 1, and net debt was 20.5 million EUR 1. Research and development expenses were 26.9 million EUR in 2025 1.
Segments
Machine sales and services in European markets
Central and Southern Europe accounted for 25.3 percent of revenue in 2025, and the Nordic and Baltic markets complete the European weight 1. The activity includes delivering machines and the associated service.
North and South American markets
North America represented 14.7 percent of sales and South America 11.6 percent in 2025, the latter declining from the prior year 1. Exposure to Brazil produced a loss-making long-term service contract, for which the company set up a provision of 6.3 million EUR 1.
Service contracts and spare parts
The company describes long-term service contracts as an important pillar of the business, with an effect on revenue stability 1. Amounts broken down for this category are not separated in the available source.
Market context
The forest machinery market depends on activity in the wood industry and on global economic conditions. Management notes that geopolitical uncertainty, slower economic growth and interest rate levels could weaken demand for forest machines, especially in emerging markets where exchange rates are volatile 1. Revenue stayed close to the previous year at 749.9 million EUR 1.
New orders were 702.7 million EUR in 2025, close to the prior year level, but the order backlog fell to 141.4 million EUR at year end 1. This development suggests that revenue prospects for the coming years depend on the ability to win new orders.
Trends
- Geopolitical uncertainty and trade tariffsheadwind
Geopolitical tensions can bring special tariffs and protectionism, which raises uncertainty in export markets 1. The effect on the company depends on how quickly these measures are applied.
- Financing costs and interest ratesheadwind
Higher financing costs could reduce demand for forest machines, especially among customers who depend on credit 1. The company says it has kept liquidity through bank credit facilities without financial covenants 1.
- Operational efficiency and marginsmixed
The recovery of operating margin in 2025 was supported by better cost management, although personnel costs rose 1. If this trend holds, margins could improve gradually.
- Digitalisation and technologytailwind
The company is investing in digitalisation and new technologies, including cybersecurity, which can support efficiency and product appeal 1. Development costs nevertheless remain a significant expense.
Competitive position
Ponsse operates in a competitive forest machinery market where the main rivals are international manufacturers with extensive distribution networks. The supplied source does not detail competitors' positions, so the analysis relies on the advantages the company itself declares: service network, skilled staff and flexible production 1.
The advantage the company declares is the combination of customer relationships, service and production capacity, all described as intangible assets supporting the long-term growth strategy 1. Differentiation from competitors depends on maintaining these elements in periods of weak demand.
- European forest machinery manufacturers
Direct competition in European markets, especially in the forest harvesting machine segment; the source gives no further detail.
- North American forest equipment manufacturers
Competition in the North American market, where Ponsse achieves part of its sales; the source does not name the competitors.
- Asian forest equipment manufacturers
Presence in the Asia, Australia and Africa region, where the company is less present; the source gives no detail.
- Forest machinery service providers
Competition in service and spare parts, an important segment for recurring revenue; the source names no companies.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202518 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202418 Mar 2025
- Annual report 202318 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Ponsse Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.