Alerta Intel Hub: Possible downgrade rating, 30-45% chance. The dominant scenario suggests a possible downgrade of the rating, with consequences for the Romanian economy.
Context and factors
The Romanian economy is facing multiple challenges, including an 88% increase in imports and a 7% decrease in net production in 2024. These changes can influence the decision of rating agencies.
Impact and scenarios
A downgrade rating could have negative consequences for the Romanian economy, including an increase in borrowing costs and a decrease in foreign investments. The dominant scenario suggests a possible downgrade of the rating, with a probability of 30-45%.
Factors and influences
Factors that can influence the decision of rating agencies include the state of the economy, fiscal and monetary policy, as well as geopolitical events. For example, [the shares of software companies are growing](https://www.mediafax.ro/tehnologie/actiunile-companiilor-software-cresc-traderii-mizeaza-pe-noi-castiguri-23739782), which can influence the decision of rating agencies.
Limitations of analysis
Our analysis is based on data available up to April 9, 2026. We cannot exclude the possibility of significant changes in the Romanian economy or in the decision of rating agencies. To obtain a complete picture, it is necessary to conduct continuous and updated analysis of data and events.