olivLaw · European equity research
Baltic Horizon Fund NHCBHFFT.TL
Estonia · Nasdaq Tallinn · Vertical: Listed companies from Estonia
Baltic Horizon Fund is a property fund holding a diversified portfolio of retail, office and leisure assets in the Baltic capitals. In 2020 the pandemic hit city-centre shopping centres hardest, and the fund responded by reducing distributions and negotiating with tenants while the portfolio stayed well occupied.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Baltic Horizon Fund (NHCBHFFT.TL) stock was 0.19 EUR (+10.00% on the day), with beta 0.18, 52-week range 0.14–0.21 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.1
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.16 – 0.19
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.89 · band width 18.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.19 / 0.18
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.00 / -0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.1% | −0.6% | −1.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −4.0% | −4.2% | +0.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −3.5% | +4.3% | −7.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +19.1% | +7.5% | +11.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −12.2% | +9.9% | −22.2 pp | −7.5% |
| 3 years | −48.2% | +49.8% | −98.0 pp | −8.1% |
| 5 years | −83.2% | +42.8% | −126.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 8.8 m | -13.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −254.0% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2020 · 31 Dec 2020
- Cash
- 13.3 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 195.7 m EUR
- Net debt
- 182.3 m EUR
- Equity
- 136.3 m EUR
- Total assets
- 355.6 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 1.44x
- Current ratio
- 1.05x
- ROE
- -9.4%
- ROA
- -3.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 9.8 m | 13.3 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Receivables | 1.8 m | 1.9 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Current assets | 12.7 m | 15.6 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 0 | 2.0 k | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Total assets | 371.7 m | 355.6 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.2 m | 3.6 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Long-term debt | 205.7 m | 195.7 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Current liabilities | 4.3 m | 14.8 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Total liabilities | 219.2 m | 219.3 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Equity | 152.5 m | 136.3 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
21% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -2.0% | 11 (vs peers) | 50% |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -1.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 30% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 21 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet8/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial11/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Baltic Horizon Fund (NHCBHFFT.TL). Latest full fiscal year: 2020; data up to 2020-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE -9.4%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -2.0%
- Interest coverage: -1.5x
- Current ratio: 1.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Estonia · same country · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAL1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallink Grupp | 479.7 m | 34.4 | 2.0% | 1.8% | +61.7% | +15% / −4% |
| TSM1T.TLaktsiaselts TALLINNA SADAM | 327.2 m | 17.1 | 5.1% | 16.0% | +2.5% | −1% / +7% |
| TVE1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallinna Vesi | 217.4 m | 16.4 | 11.2% | 20.6% | +5.3% | +2% / +0% |
| LVN1T.TLLiven AS | 38.2 m | 70.0 | 3.1% | 2.0% | −23.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SFG1T.TLAktsiaselts Silvano Fashion Group | 37.2 m | 3.8 | 20.1% | 16.9% | +1.6% | −7% / −6% |
| NCN1T.TLNordecon AS | 17.6 m | 7.1 | 7.7% | 0.8% | +26.5% | −10% / −8% |
| HPR1T.TLHepsor AS | 16.3 m | 11.7 | 7.2% | 10.8% | −14.0% | −31% / −41% |
| PRF1T.TLAS PRFoods | 2.0 m | 5.1 | 3.8% | 1.5% | −53.5% | −12% / −75% |
| PKG1T.TLAS Pro Kapital Grupp | — | — | 106.4% | 69.0% | +216.0% | −47% / −46% |
| TKM1T.TLTallinna Kaubamaja Grupp AS | — | — | 8.8% | 2.6% | +3.4% | −4% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NHCBHFFT.TL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Baltic Horizon Fund is a property fund holding a diversified portfolio of retail, office and leisure assets in the Baltic capitals. In 2020 the pandemic hit city-centre shopping centres hardest, and the fund responded by reducing distributions and negotiating with tenants while the portfolio stayed well occupied.
SWOT
Strengths
- Diversified portfolio across three segments and high occupancy, with long-term office leases.
- Ability to protect cash flow by retaining distributions during the pandemic.
- Presence in the Baltic capitals with solid local, governmental and international tenants.
Weaknesses
- High exposure to city-centre shopping centres, which were strongly affected by restrictions.
- Significant declines in like-for-like rental income in the retail and leisure segments in 2020.
- Construction commitments that could rise depending on approval of the Meraki project phases.
Opportunities
- Refurbishment and expansion projects could attract new anchor tenants after the pandemic.
- Interest from international retailers in expanding in the region could support occupancy.
- Demand for modern office space could grow as the tech sector develops.
Threats
- A new wave of restrictions could again hit rental income from shopping centres.
- A shift to remote work could reduce long-term demand for office space.
- Growth in online shopping could reduce footfall in shopping centres.
Risks
- Pandemic uncertaintyhigh
New waves of the virus and associated restrictions could again reduce tenant activity and fund income 1.
- Dependence on retail tenantshigh
Retail tenants received discounts and payment deferrals, and some could face prolonged financial difficulties 1.
- Development riskmedium
The Meraki project and the Europa SC refurbishment depend on signing anchor tenants and on approvals, which could delay completion 1.
- Office demandmedium
Adoption of flexible working could reduce the space tenants lease when contracts are renewed 1.
- Geographic concentrationlow
The portfolio is concentrated in the Baltic capitals, exposing the fund to the economic performance of a single region 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Baltic economic rebound is confirmed, rental income could gradually return to pre-pandemic levels.
- High occupancy and long-term office leases could provide a degree of income stability.
- Completing the development projects could add modern leasable space to the portfolio.
What would break the thesis
- If restrictions return, city-centre shopping centres could again see significant revenue declines.
- Growth in remote work could reduce office demand when leases are renewed.
- Construction commitments could rise and projects could be delayed, putting pressure on financing.
What to watch
- Trend in like-for-like net rental income in the retail segment2021
- Pace of signing anchor tenants for the Meraki project2021
- Progress of the Europa SC refurbishment and Postimaja expansion2022
- Level of unitholder distributions after the pandemic-related reductionnext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Baltic Horizon Fund owns and manages income-generating properties leased to tenants in Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius, administered by Northern Horizon Capital AS. According to the 2020 annual report, the portfolio comprised 15 cash flow generating properties and one property under development, with a portfolio value of 340.0 million EUR 1 and an occupancy rate of 94.3% 1. The fund's strategy relies on strong local, governmental and shared-service tenants and the Baltic headquarters of international companies 1.
Segments
Retail
Retail assets made up 49.0% of the portfolio at 31 December 2020 1. City-centre shopping centres were most affected by restrictions, and like-for-like net rental income in retail fell by 15.4% in 2020 1. Properties in the central business districts accounted for 29.2% of total portfolio NOI in 2020 1.
Office
Office assets made up 46.8% of the portfolio at 31 December 2020 1. Fixed long-term lease agreements limited the impact of the pandemic, and net rental income in offices decreased by only 0.1% in 2020 1. The Meraki project in Vilnius, with about 15,800 sq m of leasable space, was under construction at the end of 2020 1.
Market context
Baltic economies recorded some of the smallest quarter-on-quarter fluctuations in the EU in 2020, and the source expects them to grow quickly once the pandemic is controlled through vaccination 1. The share of goods bought online in the Baltics was still among the lowest in Europe, which suggests shopping centres could recover part of their activity 1. Demand for offices could shift toward more flexible contracts and working hours, depending on tenants' needs 1.
Trends
- Economic and retail reboundtailwind
The source indicates a rapid rebound in the economy and retail spending once restrictions are removed, which could support retail rents 1.
- Remote work and office flexibilityheadwind
Many firms adopted remote working, and tenants could ask for more flexible leases, which could add pressure on office demand 1.
- Rising wages and the tech sectortailwind
Wages have risen considerably over the past five years and the start-up tech sector keeps growing, which could support demand for quality office space 1.
- Online shopping in retail centresmixed
Growth in e-commerce reduces footfall in shopping centres, but centrally located assets could offset this through services and pick-up points, according to the source 1.
Competitive position
The source does not explicitly name the fund's competitors, but it refers to other retail and office properties in the Baltic capitals and international retailers expanding in the region 1. Competition for tenants could become more intense, particularly for space in city centres.
- Other shopping centres in the Baltic capitals
The source does not name individual competitors; centres in Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius compete for the same tenants and shoppers 1.
- International retailers expanding in the region
Several international retailers have expressed interest in entering or expanding in the region for 2021-2023, which could intensify competition for space 1.
- Online shopping platforms
E-commerce, though still limited in the Baltics, could draw shoppers away from shopping centres over the long term 1.
- Local office developers
New office buildings in the capitals could compete with the fund's projects for SME and services tenants 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202018 May 2021
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2020-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Baltic Horizon Fund · 31 Dec 2020
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.