olivLaw · European equity research
Fabryka Obrabiarek RAFAMET S.A. RAF.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLRFMET00016 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
Fabryka Obrabiarek RAFAMET is a Polish industrial group producing machine tools and executing long-term industrial contracts; its 2022 annual report shows especially how sensitive revenue is to cost estimates on those projects. For investors the focus stays on the dependencies in long-term contracts and accounting estimates described in the 2022 annual report.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Fabryka Obrabiarek RAFAMET S.A. (RAF.WA) stock was 39.15 PLN (+4.40% on the day), with market capitalisation 169.1 m PLN, beta 0.46, 52-week range 35.20–76.00 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 46.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 36.66 – 40.72
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.61 · band width 10.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 42.54 / 49.60
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.17 / -1.42
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −5.7% | +0.4% | −6.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −18.4% | −3.3% | −15.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −42.8% | +4.0% | −46.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +11.2% | +8.1% | +3.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −25.4% | +10.7% | −36.1 pp | +6.3% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +50.1% | unavailable | +3.0% |
| 5 years | +130.3% | +43.6% | +86.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 103.2 m | 116.5 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +12.8% |
| Net income | -288.0 k | -8.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.07 | -1.97 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -0.3% | -7.3% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2022 · 31 Dec 2022
- Cash
- 3.6 m PLN
- Financial debt
- unavailable PLN
- Net debt
- unavailable PLN
- Equity
- 83.5 m PLN
- Total assets
- 233.9 m PLN
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.18x
- ROE
- -9.7%
- ROA
- -3.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 103.2 m | 116.5 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Cost of revenue | 78.3 m | 99.3 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Gross profit | 24.9 m | 17.1 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Operating income | 2.3 m | -4.5 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Interest expense | 2.5 m | 5.6 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Pre-tax income | -193.0 k | -9.8 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Income tax | 95.0 k | -1.3 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Net income | -288.0 k | -8.5 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.07 | -1.97 | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.7 m | 3.6 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Inventories | 27.1 m | 26.6 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Current assets | 127.1 m | 129.4 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 75.3 m | 81.1 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.8 m | 1.5 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Total assets | 220.9 m | 233.9 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Current liabilities | 95.4 m | 109.7 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Total liabilities | 128.8 m | 150.4 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Equity | 92.0 m | 83.5 m | esef· 16 May 2023verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 4.1 m | 4.3 m | esef· 16 May 2023derived |
Cash flow · PLN
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 169.1 m PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
17% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -7.3% | 13 (vs peers) | 38% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 38% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 32 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet13/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial13/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Fabryka Obrabiarek RAFAMET S.A. (RAF.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2022; data up to 2022-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 116.5 m PLN in 2022; YoY growth 12.8%; net margin -7.3%; ROE -9.7%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -7.3%
- Interest coverage: -0.8x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.7 bn | 39.2 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +22% / +211% |
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.2 bn | 36.0 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +20% / +36% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 130.9 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.8 bn | 20.2 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +9% / +55% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.6 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −16% / −27% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 11.9 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +11% / +85% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 1.1 bn | 28.7 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +80% / +186% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 887.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −27% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 585.6 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +36% / +17% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 463.4 m | 7.5 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +4% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 386.3 m | 1.6 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −33% / −73% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 301.0 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −10% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 231.4 m | 17.8 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +49% / +14% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 196.8 m | 9.6 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | +0% / −20% |
| RAF.WAFabryka Obrabiarek RAFAMET S.A. | 169.1 m | — | -9.7% | -7.3% | +12.8% | −22% / +145% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 159.1 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −35% / −48% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 158.1 m | 17.3 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +38% / +52% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 72.4 m | 4.6 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −18% / −56% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 51.9 m | 1.0 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | −4% / +5% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 38.1 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −30% / −58% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.4 m | 63.8 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −44% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 32.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −26% / −40% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.4 m | 17.4 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +6% / +3% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for RAF.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Fabryka Obrabiarek RAFAMET is a Polish industrial group producing machine tools and executing long-term industrial contracts; its 2022 annual report shows especially how sensitive revenue is to cost estimates on those projects. For investors the focus stays on the dependencies in long-term contracts and accounting estimates described in the 2022 annual report 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A consolidated industrial group with subsidiaries and a formalised governance structure, according to audited financial statements 1.
- Detailed accounting policies and application of EU-endorsed IFRS for the parent, which supports comparability 1.
- A portfolio of long-term contracts that gives visibility on future revenue, provided estimates prove realistic 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenue is tied to cost estimates that can be exceeded, and adjustments can be significant 1.
- The report mentions retrospective corrections of 2021 and reclassifications, indicating complexity in accounting 1.
- Management changes, including a vice-president leaving in 2022, can create managerial discontinuity 1.
Opportunities
- If contract execution stays under control, margins could be protected and revenue stabilised over the medium term 1.
- Development of research funding, such as projects co-financed by national agencies, could support new projects 1.
- Optimising the structure of subsidiaries and associates could reduce operational complexity 1.
Threats
- Rising execution costs can reduce recognised revenue and generate expected losses 1.
- Economic uncertainty and pandemic effects may affect project continuity, according to notes in the report 1.
- Geopolitical risks linked to the Russian associate, already removed from the register, may influence results from former investments 1.
Risks
- Contract cost estimation riskhigh
An overrun of costs on long-term contracts can significantly reduce revenue and require immediate recognition of losses 1.
- Recognition of deferred tax assetmedium
The deferred tax asset depends on future taxable profits; a deterioration of results could require reassessment 1.
- Retrospective corrections of financial statementsmedium
The report describes corrections of 2021 and lease reclassifications, indicating a risk of accounting errors 1.
- Management continuitylow
Changes in executive management can affect strategy execution, especially in complex project environments 1.
- Exposure to international associationsmedium
The removal of the Russian joint venture shows that exposure to foreign markets can generate adjustments and losses on investments 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the group keeps its discipline in cost estimation, revenue from long-term contracts could remain predictable and margins stable 1.
- The report flags no major uncertainty about going concern, which supports the assumption of sustainable short-term operations 1.
- The group structure with subsidiaries and associates could offer flexibility in organising activities 1.
What would break the thesis
- The sensitivity of revenue to estimated costs shows that a cost overrun could quickly reduce reported results 1.
- The need for corrections to 2021 and reclassifications suggests accounting processes may be more fragile than they appear 1.
- The deferred tax asset could be reassessed if future taxable profits do not materialise 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of cost estimates on long-term contracts and any revenue adjustmentsnext 10-K
- Recognition of expected losses on contracts, if any arise2023
- Assessment of recoverability of the deferred tax asset2023
- Effects of new IFRS 17 and IAS 1 amendments on reporting2024
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the annual report for the year ended 31 December 2022, the RAFAMET Group includes the parent Fabryka Obrabiarek RAFAMET S.A. and subsidiaries it controls, and consolidated statements are presented in Polish zloty (PLN) 1. The group applies the percentage-of-completion method to long-term contracts, so revenue depends on the estimated total costs of each project 1. At year-end 2022 the parent was led by a president of the management board, and a vice-president left in November 2022 1.
Segments
Long-term industrial contracts
The main segment described in the report is long-term contracts recognised under the percentage-of-completion method 1. Revenue from these contracts is sensitive to cost estimates, and the report shows that a 10% rise in estimated costs would reduce revenue by about 5,333 thousand PLN 1.
Associates and joint ventures
The group accounts for investments in associates and joint ventures under the equity method, with local accounting standards adjusted before consolidation for some of them 1. The report also mentions a Russian joint venture removed from the commercial register in 2022 1.
Market context
The annual report provided does not describe the size of the machine-tool market or market shares; the source focuses on consolidated financial statements and accounting policies 1. The accounting framework is IFRS as endorsed by the EU, except for some subsidiaries keeping books under Polish standards 1. Market context should be completed from separate sources.
Trends
- Cost estimates on long-term contractsheadwind
If total project costs rise above the group's estimates, recognised revenue falls and expected losses are recognised immediately 1. This mechanism could become a pressure if inflation or execution costs rise.
- Deferred tax and future taxable profitheadwind
The group recognises a deferred tax asset on the assumption that future taxable profit will be achieved; if tax results deteriorate, this assumption could become unjustified 1.
- New accounting standardsmixed
The group applied several IFRS amendments from 2022 without significant impact and stated that new standards for 2023-2024, such as IFRS 17 and the IAS 1 amendments, are not expected to change reported amounts substantially 1.
Competitive position
The annual report does not explicitly identify competitors or market shares, so the source contains no competitor list 1. A comparative analysis would require additional industry sources.
- Competitors not named in the source
The annual report provided does not name competitors; no direct competitor can be established from the source.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202216 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2022-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Fabryka Obrabiarek RAFAMET S.A. · 31 Dec 2022
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.