olivLaw · US equity research
Amgen Inc. AMGN
Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) · SIC 2836 · Vertical: Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) (SIC 2836)
Amgen is one of the largest independent biotechnology companies in the world, with medicines for cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, inflammation and oncology, present in about 100 countries. The company relies on growth from products such as Repatha and IMDELLTRA, while sales of some older medicines decline under biosimilar competition and US pricing pressure.
At the close of 02 Nov 2026, Amgen Inc. (AMGN) stock was 465.45 USD (−0.12% on the day), with market capitalisation 251.6 bn USD, P/E 28.9 on diluted EPS of 16.10 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.59%, beta 0.44, 52-week range 296.30–466.01 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 10.1 bn USD (+9.5% YoY), net income of 2.4 bn USD (+65.9% YoY), diluted EPS 4.37 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 70.9
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 397.01 – 471.62
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.92 · band width 17.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 420.49 / 375.46
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 13.46 / 10.32
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +15.5% | −2.3% | +17.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +22.9% | −0.8% | +23.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +43.7% | +4.7% | +39.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +42.2% | +10.2% | +32.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +56.0% | +10.3% | +45.7 pp | −17.3% |
| 3 years | +72.5% | +73.0% | −0.6 pp | −33.3% |
| 5 years | +113.4% | +61.8% | +51.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.5 bn | 9.1 bn | 8.1 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.6 bn | 9.9 bn | 8.6 bn | 10.1 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 3.3 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn |
| SG&A | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Operating income | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.5 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 198.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 220.0 m | 232.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 222.0 m |
| Interest expense | 776.0 m | 747.0 m | 723.0 m | 694.0 m | 685.0 m | 653.0 m | 657.0 m | 673.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 3.1 bn | 782.0 m | 2.0 bn | 1.6 bn | 3.9 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.8 bn |
| Income tax | 271.0 m | 155.0 m | 243.0 m | 136.0 m | 705.0 m | 181.0 m | 265.0 m | 393.0 m |
| Net income | 2.8 bn | 627.0 m | 1.7 bn | 1.4 bn | 3.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 5.22 | 1.16 ≈ | 3.20 | 2.65 | 5.93 | 2.46 ≈ | 3.34 | 4.37 |
| Operating cash flow | 3.6 bn ≈ | 4.8 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.3 bn ≈ | 4.7 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn | 2.2 bn | 4.0 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 257.0 m ≈ | 371.0 m | 411.0 m | 369.0 m ≈ | 436.0 m ≈ | 642.0 m | 712.0 m | 513.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 81 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 14.3, median 20.6, max 67.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23.7 bn | 23.4 bn | 25.4 bn | 26.0 bn | 26.3 bn | 28.2 bn | 33.4 bn | 36.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +3.9% | −1.6% | +8.8% | +2.2% | +1.3% | +7.1% | +18.6% | +10.0% |
| Net income | 8.4 bn | 7.8 bn | 7.3 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.7 bn | 4.1 bn | 7.7 bn |
| Net income YoY | +324.2% | −6.6% | −7.4% | −18.9% | +11.2% | +2.5% | −39.1% | +88.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 12.62 | 12.88 | 12.31 | 10.28 | 12.11 | 12.49 | 7.56 | 14.23 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +369.1% | +2.1% | −4.4% | −16.5% | +17.8% | +3.1% | −39.5% | +88.2% |
| net % | 35.3% | 33.6% | 28.6% | 22.7% | 24.9% | 23.8% | 12.2% | 21.0% |
| Free cash flow | 10.6 bn | 8.5 bn | 9.9 bn | 8.4 bn | 8.8 bn | 7.4 bn | 10.4 bn | 8.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 9.1 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 54.6 bn USD
- Net debt
- 45.5 bn USD
- Equity
- 8.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 90.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 6.31x
- Current ratio
- 1.14x
- ROE
- 106.1%
- ROA
- 8.5%
- FCF margin
- 22.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25.4 bn | 26.0 bn | 26.3 bn | 28.2 bn | 33.4 bn | 36.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 6.2 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.4 bn | 8.5 bn | 12.9 bn | 12.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 19.3 bn ≈ | 19.5 bn ≈ | 19.9 bn ≈ | 19.7 bn ≈ | 20.6 bn ≈ | 24.7 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 5.7 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 9.1 bn | 7.6 bn | 9.6 bn | 7.9 bn | 7.3 bn | 9.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 3.6 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.1 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 12.7 bn ≈ | 11.0 bn ≈ | 13.0 bn ≈ | 12.0 bn ≈ | 12.9 bn ≈ | 14.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 8.1 bn | 6.7 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 9.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 869.0 m | 808.0 m | 794.0 m | 1.1 bn | 519.0 m | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 7.3 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.7 bn | 4.1 bn | 7.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 12.31 | 10.28 | 12.11 | 12.49 | 7.56 | 14.23 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 590.0 m | 573.0 m | 541.0 m | 538.0 m | 541.0 m | 542.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 6.56 | 7.22 | 7.95 | 8.64 | 9.13 | 9.66 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 6.3 bn | 8.0 bn | 7.6 bn | 10.9 bn | 12.0 bn | 9.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 4.5 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.6 bn | 7.3 bn | 6.8 bn | 9.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 3.9 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.9 bn | 9.5 bn | 7.0 bn | 6.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 21.1 bn | 19.4 bn | 22.2 bn | 30.3 bn | 29.0 bn | 29.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.9 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 14.7 bn | 14.9 bn | 15.5 bn | 18.6 bn | 18.6 bn | 18.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 16.6 bn | 15.2 bn | 16.1 bn | 32.6 bn | 27.7 bn | 22.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 62.9 bn | 61.2 bn | 65.1 bn | 97.2 bn | 91.8 bn | 90.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 91.0 m | 87.0 m | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 32.9 bn | 33.2 bn | 37.4 bn | 63.2 bn | 56.5 bn | 50.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 11.7 bn | 12.2 bn | 15.7 bn | 18.4 bn | 23.1 bn | 25.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 9.4 bn † | 6.7 bn † | 3.7 bn † | 6.2 bn † | 5.9 bn † | 8.7 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 10.5 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.7 bn | 8.5 bn | 11.5 bn | 10.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 608.0 m | 880.0 m | 936.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 9.9 bn ≈ | 8.4 bn ≈ | 8.8 bn ≈ | 7.4 bn ≈ | 10.4 bn ≈ | 8.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -5.4 bn | 733.0 m | -6.0 bn | -26.2 bn | -1.0 bn | -1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -4.9 bn | -8.3 bn | -4.0 bn | 21.0 bn | -9.4 bn | -10.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 3.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 3.5 bn | 5.0 bn | 6.4 bn | 0 | 200.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 55 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
02 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 251.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality98
- Growth67
- Valuation26
- Balance sheet36
- Returns57
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 126.94 – 552.39 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)311.24 – 552.39 (Mid 401.95)WACC 8.5% · starting FCFF 12.4 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 17.6%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E342.42 – 382.56 (Mid 347.29)3 companies used · median multiple 21.6x · quartiles 21.3x – 23.8xEXEL, NBIX, QGEN
- Dividend discount (DDM)126.94 – 170.72 (Mid 145.61)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 55/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 17.6% | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 23.0% | 94 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 116.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 11.8% | 98 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.5% | 37 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 3.1x | 27 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.3x | 43 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 48 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 28.9x | 33 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 20.9x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.0% | 51 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.1% | 30 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 51.9% | 97 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet36/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth67/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality98/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns57/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation26/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
Amgen Inc. (AMGN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 36.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 10.0%; net margin 23.0%; ROE 91.5%; net debt/EBITDA 3.1x.
The estimated value range is 311.24–382.56 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 347.29 USD, the price of 465.45 USD leaves a potential of -25.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -34.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 55/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 17.6%
- Net margin: 23.0%
- FCF conversion: 116.4%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.8%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 51.9%
What contradicts it
- Net debt / EBITDA: 3.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 20.9x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Versus the vertical median
Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) (SIC 2836) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | 251.6 bn | 28.9 | 91.5% | 23.0% | +10.0% | +56% / +72% |
| GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. | 211.3 bn | — | -22.3% | -12.5% | +2.4% | +35% / +122% |
| MRNAModerna, Inc. | 88.2 bn | — | -39.0% | -141.4% | −39.9% | +750% / +184% |
| RVMDRevolution Medicines, Inc. | 40.3 bn | — | -79.1% | — | unavailable | +142% / +707% |
| BIIBBiogen Inc. | 36.8 bn | 106.4 | 1.9% | 3.4% | +2.2% | +37% / +6% |
| EXELExelixis, Inc. | 17.1 bn | 21.0 | 44.3% | 35.5% | +7.0% | +59% / +222% |
| NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc. | 14.7 bn | 21.6 | 20.4% | 19.0% | +21.4% | −4% / +25% |
| RGENRepligen Corp | 11.1 bn | — | -0.6% | -1.5% | +16.4% | +1% / +10% |
| QGENQiagen N.V. | 10.9 bn | 26.0 | 11.6% | 20.3% | +5.7% | +5% / +19% |
| CRSPCrispr Therapeutics AG | 4.8 bn | — | -25.6% | -1,812.1% | −90.6% | −7% / −25% |
| IOVAIovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. | 3.6 bn | — | -40.4% | -89.1% | +60.6% | +225% / +32% |
| BEAMBeam Therapeutics Inc. | 2.7 bn | — | -8.1% | -54.7% | +120.0% | +2% / −8% |
| RXRXRecursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 2.4 bn | — | -48.7% | -697.1% | +26.9% | −17% / −44% |
| MAZEMaze Therapeutics, Inc. | 1.7 bn | — | -37.3% | -5,343.6% | unavailable | −20% / unavailable |
| NVAXNovavax Inc | 1.6 bn | — | — | -59.9% | +64.7% | +35% / +73% |
| ALVOAlvotech | 1.4 bn | 44.8 | — | 4.8% | +19.7% | −12% / −53% |
| EVAXEvaxion A | 1.2 bn | — | -100.2% | -102.4% | +125.1% | −51% / −93% |
| DNAGinkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. | 627.6 m | — | -56.3% | -260.0% | −25.1% | +6% / −81% |
| RGNXREGENXBIO Inc. | 472.7 m | — | -137.6% | -112.6% | +104.5% | −47% / −63% |
| FENCFennec Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 369.6 m | — | -18.6% | -5.5% | −6.1% | +29% / +23% |
| SRZNSurrozen, Inc. | 341.1 m | — | — | -2,885.3% | −67.4% | +75% / +303% |
| XFORX4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc | 332.1 m | — | -113.1% | -1,040.1% | +150.0% | −8% / −86% |
| ALGSAligos Therapeutics, Inc. | 196.0 m | — | -113.6% | -2,031.1% | −39.5% | −52% / −74% |
| CGENCompugen Ltd | 187.2 m | 5.2 | 44.8% | 48.6% | +161.1% | +27% / +200% |
| IVVDInvivyd, Inc. | 171.5 m | — | -95.9% | -183.9% | +110.5% | −76% / −62% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AMGN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 296.54 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 522.56 Total return 14% · Per year 14% | 784.78 Total return 71% · Per year 71% |
| 3 years | 331.37 Total return -25% · Per year -9% | 652.76 Total return 46% · Per year 14% | 1,070.00 Total return 137% · Per year 33% |
| 5 years | 370.29 Total return -13% · Per year -3% | 815.41 Total return 87% · Per year 13% | 1,458.88 Total return 228% · Per year 27% |
- Exit P/E± 163.19
- Net margin± 114.23
- Annual revenue growth± 87.66
- Annual dilution± 9.60
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Amgen is one of the largest independent biotechnology companies in the world, with medicines for cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, inflammation and oncology, present in about 100 countries. The company relies on growth from products such as Repatha and IMDELLTRA, while sales of some older medicines decline under biosimilar competition and US pricing pressure.
SWOT
Strengths
- A diversified portfolio of fast-growing medicines, including Repatha and IMDELLTRA, supported by several Phase 3 programmes.
- Global presence in many countries and an in-house manufacturing network that supports large-scale supply.
- Solid operating cash flow that funds investment, debt reduction and a growing dividend.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on a few large products and on the US market can amplify the effect of pricing pressure.
- Sales of some mature products fall quickly after loss of exclusivity or the arrival of biosimilars.
- Research and development costs remain high, and clinical results can be uncertain.
Opportunities
- Broader indications for products such as Repatha and IMDELLTRA could open new patient segments.
- Success of the MariTide programme could provide significant long-term growth.
- Rising demand for biologic treatments in emerging markets could support sales.
Threats
- US pricing pressure, including the IRA and MFN policies, could significantly reduce net revenues.
- Trade tariffs and geopolitical instability can affect supply chains and costs.
- Growing competition from biosimilars and generics could erode market share.
Risks
- TAVNEOS regulatory decisionhigh
The US regulator asked for TAVNEOS to be withdrawn from the market, and Amgen declined, but discussions with the agency continue, adding uncertainty around this product.
- Pricing pressure and public policyhigh
US pricing policies, including the IRA and MFN, could reduce net prices and profitability if they expand.
- Biosimilarsmedium
The launch of biosimilars for Prolia and XGEVA shows how loss of exclusivity can quickly reduce sales.
- Tariffs and supply chainsmedium
Trade measures and geopolitical conflict could raise costs and disrupt production.
- Research and development riskmedium
Drug development is uncertain, and Phase 3 studies may not confirm earlier results.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Strong growth in newer products such as Repatha, EVENITY and IMDELLTRA suggests the portfolio can offset the decline of mature medicines.
- Broader indications and an advanced pipeline, including the MariTide programme, could support long-term growth.
- Operating cash flow funds investment in manufacturing and debt reduction, strengthening the company's position.
What would break the thesis
- If US pricing pressure intensifies, net revenues could fall faster than volumes grow.
- Declines in Prolia, XGEVA and ENBREL under biosimilar pressure could outpace growth in newer products.
- Uncertainty around TAVNEOS and other regulatory decisions could weigh on investor confidence.
What to watch
- Sales trajectory of Repatha, IMDELLTRA and TEZSPIREQ3 2026
- Final status of TAVNEOS on the US market2026
- Impact of MFN policies and the GENEROUS model on net pricesnext 10-K
- Phase 3 results for MariTide2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Amgen discovers, develops, manufactures and delivers innovative medicines for hard-to-treat diseases, with a focus on areas of high unmet medical need. The company was incorporated in California in 1980 and operates one segment, human therapeutics 1. Product sales reached 35,148 million USD in 2025, up 10% from the prior year, according to the annual report 1.
Segments
Human therapeutics
Amgen reports a single segment, human therapeutics, which covers all of its products from osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease to oncology and rare diseases 1.
Trends
- Growth from newer productstailwind
Products such as Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE and UPLIZNA are growing strongly, which could offset the decline of mature medicines if the trend holds 13.
- Biosimilar competitionheadwind
Prolia and XGEVA sales are falling as biosimilars launched globally, and more biosimilars are expected, which could continue to weigh on these products 13.
- US pricing pressureheadwind
The IRA and the expanded 340B program are reducing net prices, and ENBREL and Otezla were selected for Medicare price setting from 2026 and 2027 if the framework is not changed 12.
- Pipeline and late-stage developmentmixed
The MariTide programme for weight management and diabetes is in Phase 3, and Amgen is investing in manufacturing capacity, which could support long-term growth but involves high research costs 13.
Competitive position
Amgen competes with other biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies in cardiovascular, osteoporosis and oncology, and pressure is rising from biosimilars and generics 1. The company itself expects increasing competition from biosimilars and generics across several products 1.
Amgen differentiates through medicines with new mechanisms and broader indications, such as Repatha and IMDELLTRA, but losing exclusivity on older products can reduce market share 1.
- Biosimilar and generic manufacturers
Makers of biosimilars and generics are named in the filing as the main pressure on products that have lost exclusivity.
- Pharmaceutical companies with cardiovascular therapies
Competition in cardiovascular care comes from companies developing similar therapies, which makes broadened indications relevant.
- Companies with oncology therapies
In oncology Amgen competes with standard treatments and other targeted therapies, and its advantage depends on clinical data.
- Companies with obesity treatments
In weight management the MariTide programme enters a crowded market where competition is intense.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- The Icelandic DNA Behind Amgen’s Hunt for the Next OzempicBloomberg Markets · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Amgen says drug combo cuts risk of death by 58% in patients with aggressive lung cancerCNBC — Top News · 24 Oct 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Lennar, Capri, Vicor, Amgen & moreCNBC — Top News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Amgen or Merck: Which Drugmaker Has the Stronger Dividend Growth Story?Yahoo Finance — News · 19 Sept 2026 · EN
- A Failed Cholesterol Drug Raises the Stakes for Amgen (AMGN) and Eli Lilly (LLY) TooYahoo Finance — News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Amgen (AMGN) Fell 5% on a Drug That Isn’t Even Its Own. Here’s the Lp(a) Bet Now in Question.Yahoo Finance — News · 13 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Weighs Amgen (AMGN) After Novartis Trial FailureYahoo Finance — News · 12 Sept 2026 · EN
- Amgen vs. Revolution Medicines: Which Healthcare Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?Yahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Positive Lung Cancer Data Lifts the Case for Amgen and AstraZenecaYahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Here Are Thursday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Advanced Micro Devices, Amgen, AngloGold Ashanti, Caterpillar, Chewy, Meta Platforms, Novartis, NVIDIA, SK hynix, and MoreYahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Amgen's Forward Multiple Looks Cheap Until You Price The Margins It AssumesYahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Could AstraZeneca (AZN)’s Stronger Growth Make it a Better Bet than Amgen (AMGN)?Yahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Amgen Falls 10% as Novartis Trial Failure Clouds a Cholesterol Drug Class; NVS Stock Drops 14%Yahoo Finance — News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Amgen, Qualcomm, Expedia, CoreWeave & moreCNBC — Top News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Disappointing Clinical Trial Results Are Dragging Novartis, Amgen and the Dow Lower TuesdayYahoo Finance — News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Stocks to Watch: Amgen, Nike, Rigetti; Bloom EnergyYahoo Finance — News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Here Are Tuesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Amgen, Baidu, Best Buy, Circle Internet, Corning, Intel, Lockheed Martin SpaceX, TeraWulf and MoreYahoo Finance — News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Markets News, Sept. 8, 2026: Dow Drops, Indexes End Lower to Start Holiday-Shortened Week; Oil Prices Rise; Shares of Amgen, Salesforce FallYahoo Finance — News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- How Is Amgen’s Stock Performance Compared to Other General Drug ManufacturersYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
- Amgen vs. Axsome Therapeutics: Which Healthcare Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?Yahoo Finance — News · 29 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report27 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Jul 2026Material cybersecurity incident
- Current report20 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report19 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report01 May 2026
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement07 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Amgen Inc. · 13 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Amgen Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Amgen Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.