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olivLaw · US equity research

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. DNA

Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) · SIC 2836 · Vertical: Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) (SIC 2836)

11.65USD+8.27% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Ginkgo Bioworks provides biological R&D services and laboratory automation tools to customers in pharmaceuticals, agriculture, industrial biotechnology and government. In 2026 the company is repositioning toward autonomous labs, amid public investment in the United States, while quarterly revenue fell sharply, by 48 percent, and losses persist with 302 million USD in cash at June 30 2026.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (DNA) stock was 11.65 USD (+8.27% on the day), with market capitalisation 742.2 m USD, beta 2.56, 52-week range 5.48–14.98 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 20.2 m USD (−48.5% YoY), net income of -46.7 m USD, diluted EPS -0.75 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
742.2 m USD
shares as of 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -5.01 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-42.96%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
2.56
Volatility (1y) 104%
52-week range
5.4814.98

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
53.9
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
8.92 – 13.27
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.63 · band width 39.2%
SMA 50 / 200
9.76 / 8.61
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.27 / 0.34
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−22.2%−2.0%−20.2 pp—
3 months+24.3%−2.2%+26.5 pp—
6 months+15.6%+4.3%+11.3 pp—
Year to date+40.2%+10.6%+29.6 pp—
1 year+0.5%+10.5%−9.9 pp−3.8%
3 years−82.2%+73.7%−155.9 pp+18.6%
5 years−97.9%+61.7%−159.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−52.7%
05 Nov 2025 → 30 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−99.1%
08 Nov 2021 → 09 Sept 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
−53.9%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
20.2 m USD
−48.5% YoY
Net income
-46.7 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.75
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-231.7% / -290.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue89.0 m43.8 m38.2 m39.1 m38.8 m33.4 m19.5 m20.2 m
Cost of revenue——4.1 m5.4 m——3.1 m1.7 m
Research & development77.0 m76.4 m70.9 m53.4 m69.4 m50.1 m49.9 m46.2 m
Operating income-55.2 m-103.6 m-81.0 m-58.2 m-90.0 m-70.8 m-71.4 m-58.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation17.2 m ≈15.7 m14.8 m15.2 m ≈15.3 m ≈13.7 m12.8 m12.3 m ≈
Interest expense-9.3 m31.4 m——————
Pre-tax income-56.8 m-107.9 m-83.2 m-53.5 m-80.8 m-81.4 m-76.1 m-57.2 m
Income tax-375.0 k-325.0 k88.0 k-283.0 k1.0 k-643.0 k-80.0 k128.0 k
Net income-56.4 m-107.5 m-91.0 m-60.3 m-80.8 m-80.8 m-82.6 m-46.7 m
Diluted EPS-1.08-2.00 ≈-1.68-1.10-1.45-1.42 ≈-1.39-0.75
Operating cash flow-103.5 m ≈-42.4 m-51.5 m-40.3 m ≈-31.6 m ≈-47.7 m-46.7 m-44.3 m ≈
Capex15.1 m ≈13.7 m7.6 m38.0 k ≈0 ≈5.0 k1.9 m2.6 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2019202020212022202320242025
Revenue54.2 m76.7 m313.8 m477.7 m251.5 m227.0 m170.2 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+41.5%+309.4%+52.2%−47.4%−9.7%−25.1%
Net income-119.3 m-126.6 m-1.8 bn-2.1 bn-892.9 m-547.0 m-312.8 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-0.10-0.10-1.39-50.20-18.37-10.54-5.64
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-220.2%-165.2%-583.1%-440.6%-355.1%-240.9%-183.8%
Free cash flow-66.9 m-193.7 m-310.3 m-304.5 m-336.3 m-382.1 m-178.7 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
167.2 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
508.6 m USD
Total assets
1.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
4.92x
ROE
-51.1%
ROA
-25.0%
FCF margin
-105.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
251.5 m
2024
227.0 m
2025
170.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
580.6 m
2024
424.1 m
2025
243.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-864.4 m
2024
-559.8 m
2025
-315.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
70.5 m
2024
63.0 m
2025
59.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-793.9 m ≈
2024
-496.7 m ≈
2025
-256.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
93.0 k
2024
94.0 k
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-892.9 m
2024
-547.5 m
2025
-313.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-71.0 k
2024
-479.0 k
2025
-837.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-892.9 m
2024
-547.0 m
2025
-312.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-18.37
2024
-10.54
2025
-5.64

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
48.6 m
2024
51.9 m
2025
55.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
944.1 m
2024
561.6 m
2025
167.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
17.2 m
2024
21.9 m
2025
24.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
46.0 k
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Feb 2024verified

Current assets
2023
1.0 bn
2024
602.7 m
2025
471.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
188.2 m
2024
203.7 m
2025
167.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
49.2 m
2024
0
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
82.7 m
2024
72.5 m
2025
53.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
9.3 m
2024
14.2 m
2025
10.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
163.9 m
2024
107.3 m
2025
96.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
568.2 m
2024
661.4 m
2025
611.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.1 bn
2024
716.1 m
2025
508.6 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-295.5 m
2024
-319.6 m
2025
-171.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
40.8 m
2024
62.5 m
2025
7.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-336.3 m ≈
2024
-382.1 m ≈
2025
-178.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-80.7 m
2024
-62.2 m
2025
-240.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-3.2 m
2024
-1.7 m
2025
17.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-25.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-29.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
17.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
-211.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-259.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-260.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-156.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-56.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-26.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-31.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
insufficient data

Liquidity

Current ratio
4.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-170.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
4.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-174.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
57 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
742.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-43.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
6.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-23.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 4 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

11.65 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 742.2 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
742.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-56.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-260.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-25.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 839derived 72

Score by group

27% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) (SIC 2836)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-260.0%34 (vs peers)23%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-29.1%0 (on a fixed band)31%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet4.6x100 (on a fixed band)15%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-23.6%0 (on a fixed band)31%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial34/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

GINKGO BIOWORKS HOLDINGS, INC. (DNA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 170.2 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -25.1%; net margin -260.0%; ROE -56.3%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 4.6x

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -29.1%
  • FCF yield: -23.6%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) (SIC 2836) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 38.4x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 20.7x
P/S
6.6x
vertical median 7.3x
below median (−9.5%)
P/B
1.8x
vertical median 5.8x
below median (−69.7%)
ROE
-56.3%
vertical median -38.1%
below median
Net margin
-260.0%
vertical median -102.9%
below median
EBIT margin
-259.9%
vertical median -122.7%
below median
Revenue YoY
-25.1%
vertical median 4.4%
below median (−675.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 3.1x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.8%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
AMGNAmgen Inc.249.4 bn28.791.5%23.0%+10.0%+34% / +71%
GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.207.7 bn—-22.3%-12.5%+2.4%+33% / +119%
MRNAModerna, Inc.91.2 bn—-39.0%-141.4%−39.9%+779% / +194%
RVMDRevolution Medicines, Inc.41.6 bn—-79.1%—unavailable+150% / +733%
BIIBBiogen Inc.36.8 bn106.41.9%3.4%+2.2%+37% / +6%
MESOMesoblast Limited18.5 bn—-19.0%-593.9%+191.4%−17% / +425%
EXELExelixis, Inc.17.6 bn21.644.3%35.5%+7.0%+64% / +232%
HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.14.8 bn38.4173.7%24.9%+37.6%+83% / +238%
KYMRKymera Therapeutics, Inc.11.6 bn—-27.3%-341.8%−16.7%+101% / +556%
TWSTTwist Bioscience Corporation8.9 bn—-29.6%-31.7%+20.3%+345% / +493%
SCNIScinai Immunotherapeutics Ltd.6.2 bn—-91.9%-633.6%+99.2%−96% / −99%
CGONCG Oncology, Inc.6.0 bn—-26.4%-3,602.7%+254.7%+51% / unavailable
TARSTarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.3.4 bn—-319.8%-102.9%+146.7%−14% / +318%
DNLIDenali Therapeutics Inc.3.4 bn—-33.9%-1,470.5%unavailable+8% / +13%
ADMAAdma Biologics, Inc.2.3 bn14.941.9%33.0%+19.6%−45% / +183%
VCELVericel Corporation2.3 bn107.77.2%7.9%+16.5%+13% / +28%
BCRXBiocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.2.1 bn——-40.9%+94.1%+15% / +40%
VIRVir Biotechnology, Inc.2.0 bn—-26.1%-83.0%−7.6%+83% / +24%
ALVOAlvotech1.5 bn46.7—4.8%+19.7%−8% / −51%
INBXInhibrx Biosciences, Inc.1.3 bn—-1,773.6%—+550.0%+3% / unavailable
EVAXEvaxion A1.2 bn—-100.2%-102.4%+125.1%−50% / −93%
DNAGinkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc.742.2 m—-56.3%-260.0%−25.1%+1% / −82%
CADLCandel Therapeutics, Inc.692.5 m—-81.8%—0.0%+90% / +907%
SRZNSurrozen, Inc.372.0 m——-2,885.3%−67.4%+91% / +340%
AUTLAutolus Therapeutics plc367.3 m—-133.0%-238.7%+644.9%−2% / −68%

1- and 3-year price returns: for DNA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
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Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Ginkgo Bioworks provides biological R&D services and laboratory automation tools to customers in pharmaceuticals, agriculture, industrial biotechnology and government. In 2026 the company is repositioning toward autonomous labs, amid public investment in the United States, while quarterly revenue fell sharply, by 48 percent, and losses persist with 302 million USD in cash at June 30 2026 3.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The platform benefits from a large autonomous lab, Nebula, and reusable data assets that can improve services with each project 13.
    • The company holds commissions from universities and government agencies for autonomous labs 3.
    • Through remote support, Apex Support can resolve most system errors without client intervention 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Revenue fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026, while operating costs remain high relative to revenue 3.
    • The company has a history of losses and expects to keep losing money for the foreseeable future 1.
    • Downstream value income is uncertain, as it depends on customers developing and commercializing their products 1.

    Opportunities

    • Public investment in autonomous labs could bring new contracts from governments and universities 3.
    • If the ADME-One service keeps its price advantage, it could attract U.S. pharmaceutical customers 3.
    • Integrating autonomous labs with third-party AI models could open new product categories 3.

    Threats

    • If government funding shrinks or is delayed, autonomous lab projects could be postponed 1.
    • Competitors with greater resources could lower prices or win customers with similar services 1.
    • Securities litigation could create costs and divert management attention 1.

    Risks

    • Persistent losses and need for capitalhigh

      The company has not reached profitability and could need additional capital, which could dilute existing shareholders 1.

    • Falling quarterly revenuehigh

      Program rationalization reduced revenue in the second quarter of 2026, and if the trend continues, pressure on cash flow could increase 3.

    • Uncertain demand for biosecuritymedium

      Demand for biosecurity services is uncertain, and the segment has been divested, changing the company's risk profile 12.

    • Dependence on public budgetsmedium

      If government budget priorities change or funding is interrupted, contracts could be delayed 3.

    • Securities litigationlow

      The company has been a target of legal actions, and the outcome of pending matters is uncertain and could affect its reputation 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If public investment in autonomous labs turns into large contracts, revenue could recover and the Nebula platform could become a competitive advantage 3.
    • Lower-priced services for U.S. pharmaceutical customers could attract new clients quickly, as early signs from ADME-One suggest 3.
    • Through reusable data and AI models, the company could improve margins over time as the number of programs grows 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • If falling revenue continues and costs stay high, losses could persist and require additional capital 13.
    • Public funding has been announced but is not assured, and any delay could push back contracts 3.
    • The divestiture of the biosecurity segment reduces the revenue base and could make the company more dependent on research services with volatile demand 2.

    What to watch

    • Development of cell engineering revenue compared with the second quarter of 2026Q3 2026
    • Whether 2026 total cash burn stays within the 125 to 150 million USD range2026
    • Number of new autonomous lab contracts with universities and governmentsnext 10-K
    • Expansion of the ADME-One service and number of new customersQ3 2026

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Ginkgo does not make end products; it sells biological R&D services on its cell engineering platform, which help customers bring their products to market 1. The company operates two segments: cell engineering, offering tools and R&D services, and biosecurity, with services for governments such as Canopy and Horizon 1. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue was 20 million USD, compared with 39 million USD in the same period of the prior year 3. The company reported that on April 3, 2026 it completed the divestiture of its Biosecurity business, which is now presented as discontinued operations 2.

    Segments

    Cell engineering

    This is the main segment, covering cell engineering solutions paid through fixed fees for a defined scope and sometimes through milestone payments tied to technical criteria, as well as automation tools such as RAC systems and Datapoints services 12. In recent years the company tied part of its revenue to downstream value share, through royalties and commercial milestones, but removed this from certain program types from the second quarter of 2024 1.

    Biosecurity (divested)

    The biosecurity segment, with the Canopy and Horizon offerings, provided government services for monitoring biological threats 1. On April 3, 2026 the business was transferred in exchange for a minority interest in the purchaser, and its results are presented as discontinued operations 2.

    Market context

    The autonomous lab market has gained important public support: the White House called for building autonomous laboratories backed by 5 billion USD through the Genesis Mission, and the NSF is investing about 400 million USD in a national network of cloud labs 3. Ginkgo has received commissions linked to these programs, including universities and a 97-instrument lab at PNNL worth 47 million USD 3. If these investments turn into contracts they could support future revenue, though the same source indicates demand is still in an early ramp phase.

    Trends

    • Public investment in autonomous labstailwind

      Government programs and the NSF could open contracts for automated laboratory infrastructure, which could support demand for Ginkgo systems and services 3.

    • Shift of experiments toward automation and AItailwind

      Pharmaceutical companies seek high-quality data for AI models, and automated labs could deliver it faster than manual work 13.

    • Program rationalization and falling revenueheadwind

      Revenue declined because of program rationalization under the restructuring, and losses remain significant 3.

    • Reliance on funding and government demandmixed

      Demand for biosecurity services and public funding are uncertain, and the company has no commitments for future funding 1.

    Competitive position

    Ginkgo competes with contract research organizations and with customers' own in-house labs, which the sources describe as traditional alternatives 1. The sources do not name listed competitors, so only competitive categories are given here; the company also compares its ADME-One service with a provider in China, without naming a listed company 3.

    • Contract research organizations (CROs)

      They provide specific workflows that pharmaceutical customers outsource 1.

    • Customers' in-house labs

      They perform cell engineering by hand, an alternative to the Ginkgo platform 1.

    • Chemical service providers in Asia

      The company compares its ADME-One service with a provider in China, not named as a listed company 3.

    • Other automated laboratory providers

      The sources do not identify them, but the autonomous lab market is expanding with public investment 3.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 28 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

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