olivLaw · US equity research
Chagee Holdings Ltd. CHA
Retail-Eating & Drinking Places · SIC 5810 · Vertical: Retail-Eating & Drinking Places (SIC 5810)
Chagee Holdings Ltd. is a Chinese freshly-made tea drink chain that operates mainly through franchising, with a network of 7,453 teahouses at the end of 2025. The company listed on Nasdaq in April 2025, and net revenues reached 12.9 billion RMB in 2025, while same-store sales growth slowed visibly toward year end.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Chagee Holdings Ltd. (CHA) stock was 12.77 USD (+1.35% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.4 bn USD, P/E 14.5 on diluted EPS of 0.88 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 7.24%, beta 0.46, 52-week range 9.16–16.24 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 11.40 – 13.11
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.80 · band width 13.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 11.89 / 11.15
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.21 / 0.19
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +14.1% | −1.1% | +15.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +16.4% | −0.5% | +16.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +16.5% | +4.4% | +12.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +9.8% | +12.3% | −2.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −14.2% | +13.5% | −27.7 pp | −16.8% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +6.1% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 13.2, median 13.2, max 13.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | 1.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | unavailable | unavailable | 167.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | 0.88 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | 9.1% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | 175.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.1 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 1.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 1.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.11x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 10.2%
- FCF margin
- 9.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Research & development | 11.5 m | 193.5 m | 268.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | — | — | 192.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | — | 20.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | — | 213.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | — | — | 231.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | — | — | 61.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | — | — | 167.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | 0.88 | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 152.7 m | 100.6 m | 164.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 0.92 | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | 681.9 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | — | 20.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | — | 32.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | — | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | — | 83.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | 14.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | — | 1.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | — | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | — | 90.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | — | 407.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | — | 555.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | — | — | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 190.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | — | — | 235.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | — | — | 59.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | — | 175.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | — | — | -118.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | — | — | 292.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | 176.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 210.1 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.4 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
46% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 12.15 – 58.68 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E43.01 – 58.68 (Mid 54.76)4 companies used · median multiple 62.2x · quartiles 48.9x – 66.7xBROS, SBUX, SHAK, WEN
- Dividend discount (DDM)12.15 – 16.34 (Mid 13.93)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 9.1% | 100 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 104.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 14.5x | 80 (vs peers) | 23% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.2% | 90 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 15.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 100.5% | 28 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns71/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation84/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Chagee Holdings Ltd. (CHA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.8 bn USD in 2025; net margin 9.1%; ROE 16.0%.
The estimated value range is 27.58–37.51 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 34.35 USD, the price of 12.77 USD leaves a potential of 169.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 62.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 9.1%
- FCF conversion: 104.8%
- Current ratio: 3.1x
- P/E (TTM): 14.5x
- FCF yield: 7.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 15.9%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Payout ratio (FCF): 100.5%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Eating & Drinking Places (SIC 5810) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUXStarbucks Corporation | 125.1 bn | 63.2 | — | 5.2% | +2.8% | +26% / +10% |
| BROSDutch Bros Inc. | 6.8 bn | 61.3 | 12.9% | 4.9% | +27.9% | −25% / +65% |
| CHAChagee Holdings Ltd. | 2.4 bn | 14.5 | 16.0% | 9.1% | unavailable | −14% / unavailable |
| WENWendy's Co | 1.5 bn | 11.6 | 108.0% | 5.7% | −3.1% | −9% / −59% |
| CNNECannae Holdings, Inc. | 792.4 m | — | -13.3% | -38.2% | −6.4% | +13% / +2% |
| SDOTSadot Group Inc. | 7.8 m | — | -486.7% | -24.1% | −64.8% | −90% / −99% |
| BRCBBlack Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. | — | 190.7 | 2.8% | 0.7% | +24.5% | −52% / unavailable |
| SHAKShake Shack Inc. | — | 77.2 | 7.7% | 2.6% | +15.4% | −17% / +20% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CHA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Aug 2026), 6-K (29 May 2026).
In brief
Chagee Holdings Ltd. is a Chinese freshly-made tea drink chain that operates mainly through franchising, with a network of 7,453 teahouses at the end of 2025. The company listed on Nasdaq in April 2025, and net revenues reached 12.9 billion RMB in 2025, while same-store sales growth slowed visibly toward year end.
SWOT
Strengths
- A large teahouse network present in nearly all provinces of China, giving scale and bargaining power with suppliers.
- A dominant franchise model that generates product sales and recurring fees without requiring the company to fund every location.
- Investment in technology, a mobile mini program and a membership program that support consumer engagement.
Weaknesses
- Same-store performance deteriorated significantly toward the end of 2025, with declines across all regions.
- Heavy reliance on franchising exposes the company to the operating quality of franchisees, which it controls only in part.
- General and administrative expenses rose sharply in 2025, weighing on operating profitability.
Opportunities
- International expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and the United States, could diversify revenue if the model proves itself there.
- Growth in company-owned stores could give better control over customer experience and product standards.
- Supply chain optimization could further reduce raw material and logistics costs.
Threats
- A slowdown in Chinese consumption and pressure on discretionary spending could reduce traffic to teahouses.
- Regulatory risks tied to overseas listing, cross-border audits and CSRC requirements could affect trading in the shares.
- Intense competition in the tea drink market could force price cuts or higher marketing spending.
Risks
- Decline in same-store GMVhigh
Continued falling sales in existing stores, after rapid network expansion, could signal market saturation and could reduce franchisee profitability.
- US listing and audit riskhigh
If US authorities cannot inspect the company's auditor, trading in its securities could be prohibited under the HFCAA, which could affect the value of an investment.
- Compliance with Chinese regulationmedium
Licenses, CSRC notices and cybersecurity requirements are complex and evolving; non-compliance could bring fines or suspension of operations.
- Fire safety compliance at storesmedium
Some company-owned teahouses have not completed all fire safety checks, and the company says it is still rectifying this, which could lead to sanctions.
- Dependence on franchisingmedium
The model exposes franchisees to margin pressure, and any conflict with franchisees could affect the brand's reputation and revenue.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the teahouse network stabilizes operationally, its scale could support a stream of recurring revenue from franchise fees and product sales.
- A lower materials and logistics cost ratio, if sustained, could improve margins over the medium term.
- International expansion could open new growth markets if the model proves repeatable outside China.
What would break the thesis
- Continued decline in same-store sales could indicate that the Chinese market is less receptive than the rapid expansion suggests.
- Regulatory and cross-border audit risks could limit access to US capital markets or raise compliance costs.
- Rising general and marketing expenses could erode profitability if revenue does not grow at the same pace.
What to watch
- Trend in same-store GMV across ChinaQ1 2027
- Number of company-owned teahouses and the pace of new openings2027
- Developments under the HFCAA regime and PCAOB reports on the company's auditor2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Aug 2026), 6-K (29 May 2026).
The business
The franchise model is the core of the business: franchised teahouses generated 88.5% of net revenues in fiscal 2025, with the remaining 11.5% coming from company-owned stores 1. Franchise revenue includes sales of raw materials, packaging and equipment, as well as service fees, the most important being monthly royalties calculated as a percentage of each teahouse's income or profit 1.
Segments
Franchised teahouses
Franchised teahouses accounted for 88.5% of net revenues in fiscal 2025, with products sold to franchisees and franchise services as the main components 1. Sales of raw materials and packaging carried the largest weight within this segment 1.
Franchising and other services
Franchising and other service revenue, including royalties, initial franchise fees and annual brand license fees, grew in 2025 compared with prior years 1. This segment depends on the performance of franchised teahouses and on the company's ability to keep them operating 1.
Market context
The company operates in China's freshly-made tea drink market, which depends on urbanization, per capita disposable income and consumer spending on food and beverages 1. The filing stresses that consumer demand, preferences and expectations for value-for-money directly influence the company's results 1.
Trends
- International expansionmixed
Overseas teahouses reached 345 at the end of 2025, and the company targets markets in Southeast Asia and the United States through dedicated entities 1. Expansion could diversify revenue sources if overseas performance stabilizes.
- Rising weight of company-owned storesmixed
Directly owned stores have grown quickly, bringing higher operating and staff costs and a revenue mix less concentrated in franchising 1. The shift could improve quality control but adds exposure to fixed costs.
- Lower materials and logistics cost ratiotailwind
The cost of materials, storage and logistics has fallen as a share of revenues in recent years, suggesting better supply chain efficiency 1. If this continues, it could support margins over the medium term.
Competitive position
The company's filing does not explicitly name competitors, but it describes a freshly-made tea market with many operators and price-sensitive consumers 1. Competition plays out through store count, customer acquisition and retention, and marketing costs, which reached 10.6% of revenues in 2025 1.
The company aims to differentiate through technology, a membership program, a mobile mini program and strict quality standards for franchisees 1. Its scale could lower acquisition costs, but the document offers no direct comparison with other players.
- Other freshly-made tea chains in China
The source document does not name individual competitors; competition is described generically within China's tea drink market.
- Coffee and beverage chains in China
Indirect competition for consumers choosing hot or cold drinks in urban locations, not explicitly identified in the source.
- Beverage chains in Southeast Asia
Possible competition in overseas markets where the company has expanded, mentioned only generically in the document.
- Food service franchise operators
Competition for potential franchisees and investors, mentioned in the context of the company's franchise model.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Chagee’s (CHA) Overseas Boom Masks A Bruising Home Market FightYahoo Finance — News · 05 Sept 2026 · EN
- Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares Q2 2026 Earnings Call SummaryYahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 May 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)29 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)31 Mar 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Nov 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Aug 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Chagee Holdings Ltd. · 29 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.