olivLaw · US equity research
Gerdau S.A. GGB
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling & Finishing Mills · SIC 3310 · Vertical: Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling & Finishing Mills (SIC 3310)
Gerdau is a steel producer operating in Brazil and North America, with long, flat and special steel operations. In 2025 it reorganized its reporting into three geographic segments, Brazil, North America and South America, which makes regional dynamics easier to follow. The company is exposed to the real-dollar exchange rate and to global steel price cycles, factors discussed in its 2025 annual report.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Gerdau S.A. (GGB) stock was 4.60 USD (−1.29% on the day), with beta 1.11, 52-week range 3.26–5.24 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 40.2
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.45 – 5.41
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.16 · band width 19.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.89 / 4.45
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.09 / -0.04
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −11.0% | −1.1% | −9.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −10.5% | −0.5% | −10.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −6.7% | +4.4% | −11.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +24.7% | +12.3% | +12.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +34.5% | +13.5% | +21.0 pp | +6.4% |
| 3 years | +18.2% | +76.4% | −58.2 pp | +15.9% |
| 5 years | +30.8% | +63.7% | −32.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 46.2 bn | 39.6 bn | 43.8 bn | 78.3 bn | 82.4 bn | 68.9 bn | 67.0 bn | 69.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +25.0% | −14.1% | +10.5% | +78.8% | +5.2% | −16.4% | −2.7% | +4.2% |
| Net income | 2.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 15.5 bn | 11.4 bn | 7.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −47.8% | +96.5% | +554.9% | −26.3% | −34.3% | −39.1% | −69.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.34 | 0.70 | 1.38 | 9.04 | 6.50 | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −47.8% | +97.1% | +555.1% | −28.1% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 5.0% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 19.8% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 2.0% |
| Free cash flow | 804.7 m | -103.8 m | 4.8 bn | 9.5 bn | 6.9 bn | 5.9 bn | 5.6 bn | 1.3 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 5.9 bn BRL
- Financial debt
- unavailable BRL
- Net debt
- unavailable BRL
- Equity
- 53.8 bn BRL
- Total assets
- 81.7 bn BRL
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.89x
- ROE
- 2.5%
- ROA
- 1.6%
- FCF margin
- 1.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (BRL)
Margins
Income statement · BRL
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 43.8 bn | 78.3 bn | 82.4 bn | 68.9 bn | 67.0 bn | 69.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 37.9 bn | 57.5 bn | 63.7 bn | 57.6 bn | 57.8 bn | 61.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 5.9 bn | 20.8 bn | 18.8 bn | 11.3 bn | 9.2 bn | 8.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 5.2 bn | 21.0 bn | 17.8 bn | 10.5 bn | 7.5 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 7.7 bn ≈ | 23.7 bn ≈ | 20.6 bn ≈ | 13.5 bn ≈ | 10.6 bn ≈ | 7.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 3.5 bn | 20.3 bn | 15.9 bn | 9.3 bn | 5.5 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.1 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.4 bn | 1.8 bn | 864.7 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.4 bn | 15.5 bn | 11.4 bn | 7.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.38 | 9.04 | 6.50 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2023verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.48 | 9.31 | 10.30 | 4.47 | 2.30 | 1.79 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · BRL
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.6 bn | 4.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 7.8 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 9.2 bn | 16.9 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2022verified |
| Current assets | 23.4 bn | 32.6 bn | 31.3 bn | 29.2 bn | 32.7 bn | 28.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 17.3 bn | 18.7 bn | 20.4 bn | 22.9 bn | 29.6 bn | 30.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 12.1 bn | 12.4 bn | 11.6 bn | 10.8 bn | 13.9 bn | 12.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 622.6 m | 509.8 m | 415.2 m | 373.7 m | 400.6 m | 691.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 63.1 bn | 73.8 bn | 73.8 bn | 74.9 bn | 86.8 bn | 81.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 11.5 bn | 14.0 bn | 13.5 bn | 11.3 bn | 10.9 bn | 9.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 32.0 bn | 31.0 bn | 27.5 bn | 25.6 bn | 28.6 bn | 27.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 31.1 bn | 42.8 bn | 46.3 bn | 49.2 bn | 58.2 bn | 53.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 573.6 m | 573.6 m | 571.9 m | 600.5 m | 720.0 m | 717.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · BRL
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 6.4 bn | 12.5 bn | 11.2 bn | 11.1 bn | 11.4 bn | 8.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 4.8 bn ≈ | 9.5 bn ≈ | 6.9 bn ≈ | 5.9 bn ≈ | 5.6 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.2 bn | -3.0 bn | -4.5 bn | -5.8 bn | -5.0 bn | -7.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.5 bn | -10.0 bn | -8.3 bn | -4.1 bn | -2.7 bn | -1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 274.8 m | 5.3 bn | 5.9 bn | 2.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | — | 1.1 bn | — | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.0% | 50 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 94.1% | 92 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -5.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 5 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 98.5% | 31 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet43/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial31/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GERDAU S.A. (GGB). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 69.9 bn BRL in 2025; YoY growth 4.2%; net margin 2.0%; ROE 2.5%.
The estimated value range is 26.67–29.56 BRL per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 94.1%
- Current ratio: 2.9x
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -5.4%
- Interest coverage: 1.8x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling & Finishing Mills (SIC 3310) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WORWorthington Enterprises, Inc | 3.2 bn | 19.6 | 16.3% | 11.5% | +19.7% | +18% / +47% |
| WSWorthington Steel, Inc. | 2.1 bn | — | -3.6% | -0.7% | +11.3% | +20% / +47% |
| ROCKGibraltar Industries, Inc. | 1.3 bn | — | -15.6% | -10.4% | +11.0% | −13% / −35% |
| IIINInsteel Industries Inc. | 559.5 m | 19.1 | 7.9% | 4.0% | +14.2% | −5% / −15% |
| FRDFriedman Industries Inc | 279.8 m | 17.9 | 10.4% | 2.7% | −13.9% | +91% / +223% |
| SIDNational Steel Co | — | — | -17.4% | -5.9% | −3.9% | −51% / −76% |
| GGBGerdau S.A. | — | — | 2.5% | 2.0% | +4.2% | +35% / +18% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GGB from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 13 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (27 Oct 2026), 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (01 Sept 2026).
In brief
Gerdau is a steel producer operating in Brazil and North America, with long, flat and special steel operations. In 2025 it reorganized its reporting into three geographic segments, Brazil, North America and South America, which makes regional dynamics easier to follow. The company is exposed to the real-dollar exchange rate and to global steel price cycles, factors discussed in its 2025 annual report.
SWOT
Strengths
- Presence across three regions, with separate segments for Brazil, North America and South America.
- The ability to redirect production to exports when domestic demand falls.
- Integrated operations with access to iron ore in Brazil.
Weaknesses
- Metallic inputs are the largest component of production costs.
- Exposure to the real-dollar exchange rate, with effects on foreign-currency debt and receivables.
- Cost structure differs widely between segments, which makes uniform comparison difficult.
Opportunities
- U.S. infrastructure demand could support long steel prices.
- Segment reporting by geography can clarify performance in each region.
- Brazilian exports could grow if foreign markets remain accessible.
Threats
- Global steel oversupply, especially from China, can keep prices under pressure.
- Export restrictions and import tariffs can change competitive conditions.
- Economic swings in Brazil and the United States can affect steel demand.
Risks
- Steel priceshigh
Prices are cyclical and sensitive to demand and available capacity, which can affect the company's results 1.
- Exchange ratemedium
Fluctuations between the Brazilian real and the dollar can affect results and financial position 1.
- Raw material costshigh
Metallic inputs make up most of costs, and their variation can change margins 1.
- Trade policymedium
Export restrictions and tariffs can change prices and producer competitiveness 1.
- Economic conditionsmedium
Growth and the cost of financing in Brazil and the United States influence demand and access to credit 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If infrastructure demand in the United States holds, the North America segment could benefit from steadier prices.
- The ability to export surplus production can support capacity utilization in periods of weak domestic demand.
- Segment reporting by geography could make it easier to assess the performance of each region.
What would break the thesis
- Global oversupply, especially from China, can limit steel prices and producer margins.
- Real appreciation against the dollar can affect reported revenues and costs of the Brazilian operations.
- The high share of metallic inputs in costs makes profitability sensitive to raw material price moves.
What to watch
- Price trends for long steel in the United States2027
- Pace of Brazilian exports and their share of total shipments2027
- Real-dollar exchange rate and effect on foreign-currency debtnext 10-K
- Production cost structure by segment, especially the share of metallic inputsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 13 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (27 Oct 2026), 6-K (26 Oct 2026), 6-K (01 Sept 2026).
The business
According to the 2025 annual report (Form 20-F), Gerdau reports from 2025 three segments: Brazil, which includes long, flat and special steel operations and the iron ore operation in Brazil; North America, which includes long and special steel operations in Canada and the United States; and South America, which covers operations in Argentina, Peru and Uruguay 1. The former Special Steel Segment was integrated into the two geographic segments to reflect the regionalization of markets and local currencies 1. The company reports revenues and costs by these segments, and the new segment structure is presented as a change in format compared with prior periods 1.
Raw materials account for the largest share of production costs. For 2025, metallic inputs represented about 47.4% of production costs, energy and reducing agents 13.1%, personnel 12.6%, and specific materials 10.2% 1. Costs are distributed differently across segments: in Brazil energy and reducing agents were higher, while in South America metallic inputs represented the largest share 1.
Exports from the Brazilian operations rose in 2025 by 18.2% over 2024, from 1.1 to 1.3 million tonnes, representing 21.4% of total Brazil shipments 1. Export revenue totaled 4,792 million reais in 2025, compared with 3,822 million in 2024 1. The company says that when domestic demand falls, exports help maintain capacity utilization 1.
Segments
North America
The North America segment comprises long and special steel operations in Canada and the United States, along with joint ventures in Canada and Mexico 1. The report shows metallic inputs represented 50.0% of segment costs in 2025 1. U.S. real GDP growth was 2.0% in 2025, according to the report 1.
Market context
The global steel market stayed under pressure in 2025, with prices generally stable or slightly lower than in 2024, due to oversupply, especially from China 1. In the United States domestic prices showed relative resilience, supported by infrastructure spending and trade measures, though they remained well below 2021 levels 1. Brazil's 2.3% economic growth and the real's 11.1% appreciation against the U.S. dollar describe the context in which the company operates 1.
Long steel products such as rebar and merchant bars are largely treated as commodities, while special steels and drawn products have prices that are harder to compare due to differences in shape and specifications 1. Steel prices are sensitive to world and local demand and to available capacity, and governments can influence prices through export restrictions and import tariffs 1.
Trends
- Global steel oversupplyheadwind
Oversupply, especially from China, and elevated exports kept pressure on international prices in 2025 1. If this persists, producer margins could remain limited.
- Regionalization of marketsmixed
The report explains the new segment format through the regionalization of markets, business dynamics and local currencies 1. This change could make performance in each region easier to assess.
- U.S. infrastructuretailwind
Infrastructure spending and trade measures supported domestic U.S. prices in 2025, although levels stayed below 2021 1. If this spending continues, demand for long steel could remain solid.
- Real-dollar exchange ratemixed
The real appreciated 11.1% against the dollar in 2025 1. Currency appreciation can affect reported costs and revenues of the Brazilian operations, and the company notes effects on foreign-currency debt and receivables 1.
Competitive position
The 20-F does not explicitly name competitors for Gerdau, so they cannot be presented based on this source. The company does, however, operate in markets where prices are influenced by global oversupply and imports, factors the report mentions 1.
Competitive position depends on cost structure, access to raw materials and the ability to export when domestic demand is weak 1. The report gives no comparative data on competitors' market shares.
- Not identified in source
The 20-F does not name direct competitors of Gerdau, so no competing firms are presented in this profile.
- Chinese imports and producers
Chinese exports and global oversupply are cited as factors pressuring prices, without naming specific producers 1.
- U.S. importers
The report shows import penetration rose in the U.S. long steel segment, without identifying firms 1.
- Other regional suppliers
The source discusses local market competition in general, without naming companies; a ticker cannot be confirmed.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Aug 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Gerdau S.A. · 13 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.