olivLaw · US equity research
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional SID
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling & Finishing Mills · SIC 3310 · Vertical: Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling & Finishing Mills (SIC 3310)
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional is one of Brazil's largest and most diversified industrial groups, with integrated operations across steel, mining, cement, logistics and energy. It is now carrying out a divestment plan to improve liquidity after successive credit rating downgrades in January and February 2026.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID) stock was 0.78 USD (+9.38% on the day), with beta 1.37, 52-week range 0.71–2.12 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 35.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.61 – 1.43
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.20 · band width 79.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.10 / 1.26
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.11 / -0.07
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −37.4% | −1.1% | −36.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −20.8% | −0.5% | −20.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −44.5% | +4.4% | −48.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −51.5% | +12.3% | −63.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −52.6% | +13.5% | −66.2 pp | +19.1% |
| 3 years | −69.5% | +76.4% | −146.0 pp | +35.3% |
| 5 years | −79.9% | +63.7% | −143.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18.5 bn | 23.0 bn | 25.4 bn | 30.1 bn | 47.9 bn | 44.4 bn | 45.4 bn | 43.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +8.0% | +24.0% | +10.7% | +18.2% | +59.4% | −7.4% | +2.4% | −3.9% |
| Net income | 10.3 m | 5.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 12.3 bn | 1.6 bn | -318.2 m | -2.6 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +49,297.7% | −64.7% | +112.1% | +223.1% | −87.3% | −120.5% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.01 | 3.69 | 1.30 | 2.75 | 8.91 | 1.17 | -0.24 | -1.95 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +48,710.8% | −64.9% | +112.1% | +224.0% | −86.9% | −120.5% | unavailable |
| net % | 0.1% | 22.1% | 7.0% | 12.6% | 25.6% | 3.5% | -0.7% | -5.9% |
| Free cash flow | -487.6 m | 891.0 m | 2.7 bn | 7.9 bn | 11.9 bn | -1.3 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.2 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 23.3 bn BRL
- Financial debt
- 56.9 bn BRL
- Net debt
- 33.6 bn BRL
- Equity
- 15.5 bn BRL
- Total assets
- 103.9 bn BRL
- Debt / equity
- 3.68x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- -14.7%
- ROA
- -2.7%
- FCF margin
- 7.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (BRL)
Margins
Income statement · BRL
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25.4 bn | 30.1 bn | 47.9 bn | 44.4 bn | 45.4 bn | 43.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 17.3 bn | 19.1 bn | 25.8 bn | 31.1 bn | 33.5 bn | 32.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 8.2 bn | 10.9 bn | 22.1 bn | 13.3 bn | 12.0 bn | 11.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Operating income | 3.5 bn | 5.7 bn | 20.5 bn | 7.6 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 5.8 bn | 7.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.4 bn | 4.9 bn | 18.6 bn | 4.1 bn | 1.0 bn | -1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | -833.8 m | 625.5 m | 5.0 bn | 2.0 bn | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Apr 2023verified |
| Net income | 1.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 12.3 bn | 1.6 bn | -318.2 m | -2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.30 | 2.75 | 8.91 | 1.17 | -0.24 | -1.95 | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.38 | 0.22 | 2.37 | 2.83 | 3.00 | 1.91 | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025derived |
Balance sheet · BRL
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.1 bn | 9.9 bn | 16.6 bn | 12.0 bn | 16.0 bn | 23.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Receivables | 2.0 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Inventories | 5.3 bn | 4.8 bn | 10.9 bn | 11.3 bn | 9.6 bn | 10.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Current assets | 12.7 bn | 23.4 bn | 35.0 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 18 May 2022verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 19.7 bn | 21.5 bn | 26.4 bn | 26.4 bn | 27.9 bn | 30.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | — | 11.4 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Apr 2023verified |
| Total assets | 50.9 bn | 63.0 bn | 79.4 bn | 85.4 bn | 91.5 bn | 103.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | — | — | 4.4 bn | 5.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 5.1 bn | 4.1 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.2 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 22.8 bn | 31.1 bn | 27.0 bn | 35.7 bn | 37.2 bn | 48.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 11.6 bn | 14.7 bn | 24.5 bn | 22.5 bn | 25.0 bn | 25.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 419.9 m | 344.5 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Apr 2021verified |
| Equity | 11.4 bn | 11.3 bn | 23.4 bn | 21.8 bn | 19.7 bn | 15.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
Cash flow · BRL
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 4.9 bn | 9.6 bn | 14.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 7.3 bn | 8.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Capex | 2.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.7 bn ≈ | 7.9 bn ≈ | 11.9 bn ≈ | -1.3 bn ≈ | 2.9 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.2 bn | -1.9 bn | 447.9 m | -11.5 bn | -4.6 bn | -1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -3.8 bn | 1.2 bn | -8.5 bn | 4.7 bn | 1.3 bn | -103.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.9 bn | 309.4 m | 3.3 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 7.4% | 41 (on a fixed band) | 29% |
| Net margin · Quality | -5.9% | 17 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -3.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 80.3% | 57 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial57/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NATIONAL STEEL CO (SID). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 43.7 bn BRL in 2024; YoY growth -3.9%; net margin -5.9%; ROE -17.4%.
The estimated value range is 18.75–23.17 BRL per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -5.9%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -3.0%
- Interest coverage: 0.6x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling & Finishing Mills (SIC 3310) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WORWorthington Enterprises, Inc | 3.2 bn | 19.6 | 16.3% | 11.5% | +19.7% | +18% / +47% |
| WSWorthington Steel, Inc. | 2.1 bn | — | -3.6% | -0.7% | +11.3% | +20% / +47% |
| ROCKGibraltar Industries, Inc. | 1.3 bn | — | -15.6% | -10.4% | +11.0% | −13% / −35% |
| IIINInsteel Industries Inc. | 559.5 m | 19.1 | 7.9% | 4.0% | +14.2% | −5% / −15% |
| FRDFriedman Industries Inc | 279.8 m | 17.9 | 10.4% | 2.7% | −13.9% | +91% / +223% |
| GGBGerdau S.A. | — | — | 2.5% | 2.0% | +4.2% | +28% / +24% |
| SIDNational Steel Co | — | — | -17.4% | -5.9% | −3.9% | −53% / −70% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SID from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (09 Oct 2026), 6-K (29 Sept 2026), 6-K (15 Sept 2026), 6-K (14 Sept 2026), 6-K (03 Sept 2026).
In brief
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional is one of Brazil's largest and most diversified industrial groups, with integrated operations across steel, mining, cement, logistics and energy. It is now carrying out a divestment plan to improve liquidity after successive credit rating downgrades in January and February 2026.
SWOT
Strengths
- Full integration from mining to finished products gives control over raw material costs and proprietary infrastructure.
- A strong presence in the domestic flat steel market and export exposure give flexibility in managing sales.
- Energy self-sufficiency achieved after 2023 reduces exposure to energy costs across all segments.
Weaknesses
- High indebtedness and the 2026 rating downgrades limit access to financing at moderate cost.
- Dependence on the Brazilian market and local macroeconomic conditions makes revenues sensitive to domestic cycles.
- Energy assets such as the Jacuí hydroelectric plant remain inoperative, reducing expected revenue from that segment.
Opportunities
- Divestments in cement and infrastructure could reduce debt and improve the capital structure.
- Strategic steel partnerships could bring capital and know-how for capacity projects.
- Expansion into higher value-added products such as tin plate could support margins.
Threats
- Cheap imports from Asia and unpredictable protective measures can affect prices and sales volumes.
- Volatile iron ore prices, linked to Chinese demand, could reduce mining revenues.
- Movements of the real against the dollar affect revenues, costs and dollar-denominated debt.
Risks
- Liquidity and credit ratinghigh
The 2026 rating downgrades and negative outlooks could raise the cost of debt and limit market access.
- Execution of the divestment planhigh
The sale of cement and infrastructure stakes depends on market conditions and negotiations, and delays could prolong financial pressure.
- Protectionism and importsmedium
Protective measures may be removed or could provoke retaliation from other countries, while cheap imports could keep weighing on prices.
- Currency exposuremedium
Export revenues are in dollars while costs are in reais, so currency swings can affect margins and unhedged debt.
- Climate risk to energy assetslow
Flooding in 2024 in Rio Grande do Sul affected CEEE-G assets, and a delayed recovery of the Jacuí plant could weigh on results.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Vertical integration and access to proprietary iron ore can support steady results even when commodity prices are volatile.
- If divestments are completed on favorable terms, debt could fall meaningfully and liquidity pressure could ease.
- Energy self-sufficiency and expansion in logistics and higher value-added products could improve long-term margins.
What would break the thesis
- The 2026 rating downgrades and ratings under review can make financing more expensive and harder to obtain.
- If the divestment plan is delayed or completed at weak prices, the company could be forced to finance itself under difficult conditions.
- Cheap imports and volatile iron ore prices could pressure steel and mining revenues in the coming years.
What to watch
- Progress of the divestment plan for cement and infrastructure2026
- Evolution of credit ratings and negative outlooks2026
- Application of steel import quotas and protective measures2026
- Return of the Jacuí hydroelectric plant and CEEE-G asset recovery2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (09 Oct 2026), 6-K (29 Sept 2026), 6-K (15 Sept 2026), 6-K (14 Sept 2026), 6-K (03 Sept 2026).
The business
CSN was established in 1941 as a state-owned enterprise and privatized through auctions in 1993 and early 1994, when the government sold its 91% stake. The company runs a vertical integration strategy from iron ore mining to finished steel, supported by its own mines, railways and port terminals. In 2025 the steel segment accounted for 49.2% of net revenues according to its annual report 1.
Beyond its core business, the group expanded into cement, logistics and energy through acquisitions. In 2025 it consolidated 70% of Estrela, the holding company of Grupo Tora, and acquired Gramperfil in Portugal and Galvacolor in Spain to strengthen its Iberian downstream operations 1.
In January 2026 the company announced a divestment plan that contemplates a potential sale of a controlling interest in its cement segment, a sale of a minority interest in infrastructure and strategic partnerships for steel. Timing and terms remain subject to market conditions and approvals 1.
Segments
Steel
The steel segment, headquartered at the Presidente Vargas Steelworks in Volta Redonda, produces slabs, hot- and cold-rolled products, galvanized products and tin mill products. The company held about 22.7% of the Brazilian domestic flat steel market in 2025, and international sales accounted for 26.9% of its flat steel sales 1.
Mining
Mining focuses on iron ore mines in Brazil's Iron Ore Quadrangle through subsidiary CSN Mineração. More than 89% of mining revenues in 2025 came from exports, and the P15 project could add premium iron ore capacity 1.
Cement
The cement division uses slag from the Volta Redonda blast furnaces and reached an installed capacity of approximately 17.0 million tons per year after its 2021 and 2022 acquisitions, making it one of the leading producers in Brazil 1. The segment is part of the divestment plan.
Market context
The Brazilian steel market saw crude steel output dip slightly in 2025 while apparent domestic consumption rose, and rolled steel imports climbed 20.5%, indicating pressure from cheap products, mainly from China 1. The government introduced import quotas on eleven types of alloy products, but how long these measures will last is not predictable 1. Iron ore prices fell in 2025 and were shaped by Chinese demand.
Externally, credit ratings were lowered in 2026 by S&P, Fitch and Moody's, and the company obtained a US$1.2 billion bridge loan at SOFR plus 6.0%. If divestments are not completed quickly, financing costs could remain high 1.
Trends
- Import pressure on Brazilian steelmixed
Rolled steel imports rose 20.5% in 2025 and protective measures were introduced, but their duration is uncertain. If protection is extended, local producers could recover part of the market.
- Iron ore pricesmixed
Average iron ore prices fell in 2025 versus 2024 but recovered in the third and fourth quarters on Chinese stimulus. Mining revenues could be affected if prices remain volatile.
- Cost of financing and ratingsheadwind
The 2026 rating cuts and the new high-rate bridge loan raise the cost of capital. If the divestments succeed, liquidity pressure could ease.
- Energy integrationtailwind
The energy self-sufficiency achieved after 2023 reduced energy costs across all segments, with energy sourced entirely from renewables. Recovery of the Jacuí hydroelectric plant is expected only in 2027.
Competitive position
In Brazilian flat steel, CSN competes with other integrated producers and imports, and its main advantage is access to its own iron ore, which domestic rivals must largely buy 1. In cement and logistics it competes with regional players and rail and port operators.
In export markets the company sells products from Europe and the United States, and competition comes from global steelmakers, especially in Asia, where large supply puts pressure on prices 1. The sources analyzed do not name US-listed competitors.
- Brazilian integrated flat steel producers
Direct rivals in the domestic flat steel market that partly depend on purchased ore, unlike CSN.
- Asian steel producers
Exporters of low-priced steel that could influence prices in the Brazilian and external markets.
- Regional cement producers
Competitors in the Brazilian cement market, where the company grew capacity through acquisitions.
- Brazilian rail and logistics operators
Competitors in rail and intermodal transport, where CSN expanded through Grupo Tora.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)09 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)11 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)11 Aug 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional · 30 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.