olivLaw · US equity research
Hillman Solutions Corp. HLMN
Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware · SIC 3420 · Vertical: Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware (SIC 3420)
Hillman Solutions is one of the largest North American providers of hardware products and merchandising services, selling small parts such as fasteners, keys and protective gear to retailers. Net sales reached 1552.2 million USD in fiscal 2025, and in the first half of 2026 the company raised its outlook and agreed to acquire Kanebridge, making it relevant to investors following consolidation in industrial distribution.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) stock was 8.53 USD (−2.85% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.7 bn USD, P/E 66.6 on diluted EPS of 0.13 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.06, 52-week range 6.94–10.74 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 457.5 m USD (+7.7% YoY), net income of 6.3 m USD (−72.9% YoY), diluted EPS 0.03 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 71.1
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.48 – 8.61
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.96 · band width 28.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 7.36 / 8.09
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.31 / 0.15
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +21.2% | −5.9% | +27.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.0% | −4.6% | −1.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +8.2% | +0.2% | +8.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −1.5% | +7.4% | −8.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −6.5% | +8.2% | −14.7 pp | +50.4% |
| 3 years | +22.9% | +68.4% | −45.5 pp | +33.4% |
| 5 years | −21.1% | +56.5% | −77.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 26 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 349.6 m | 359.3 m | 402.8 m | 424.9 m | 365.1 m | 370.1 m | 442.3 m | 457.5 m |
| Cost of revenue | 182.9 m | 190.7 m | 208.3 m | 205.4 m | 191.4 m | 201.5 m | 234.2 m | 225.2 m |
| SG&A | 118.7 m | 119.1 m | 123.7 m | 138.3 m | 120.9 m | 124.6 m | 134.0 m | 157.9 m |
| Operating income | 14.0 m | 15.0 m | 36.3 m | 45.9 m | 16.7 m | 7.2 m | 40.9 m | 37.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 33.6 m | 34.8 m | 35.1 m ≈ | 35.4 m ≈ | 35.8 m | 37.3 m | 37.8 m ≈ | 38.0 m ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | -928.0 k | -351.0 k | 22.4 m | 31.2 m | 3.3 m | -5.8 m | 27.9 m | 10.0 m |
| Income tax | 294.0 k | -34.0 k | 6.6 m | 8.0 m | 1.7 m | -1.1 m | 6.8 m | 3.8 m |
| Net income | -1.2 m | -317.0 k | 15.8 m | 23.2 m | 1.6 m | -4.7 m | 21.1 m | 6.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.01 ≈ | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.01 ≈ | -0.02 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| Operating cash flow | 43.1 m | -655.0 k | 48.7 m ≈ | 26.2 m ≈ | 30.9 m | -19.5 m | 88.0 m ≈ | 69.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 21.0 m | 20.7 m | 17.5 m ≈ | 17.2 m ≈ | 14.8 m | 14.8 m | 17.8 m ≈ | 18.8 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 3.2 m ≈ | 9.3 m | 10.1 m | 13.3 m ≈ | 5.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 46 percentile of its own 13-quarter history (min 38.9, median 92.5, max 501.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +12.7% | +4.2% | +4.2% | −0.7% | −0.3% | +5.4% |
| Net income | 0 | -28.9 m | -38.3 m | -16.4 m | -9.6 m | 17.3 m | 40.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +133.6% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.96 | -0.27 | -0.28 | -0.08 | -0.05 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +122.2% |
| net % | 0.0% | -2.1% | -2.7% | -1.1% | -0.6% | 1.2% | 2.6% |
| Free cash flow | -57.8 m | -46.5 m | -161.8 m | 49.4 m | 172.3 m | 98.1 m | 35.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 27 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 27.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 683.2 m USD
- Net debt
- 655.9 m USD
- Equity
- 1.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.56x
- Current ratio
- 2.51x
- ROE
- 3.3%
- ROA
- 1.7%
- FCF margin
- 2.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 781.8 m | 859.6 m | 846.6 m | 829.0 m | 764.7 m | 795.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 586.5 m ≈ | 566.4 m ≈ | 639.8 m ≈ | 647.5 m ≈ | 707.9 m ≈ | 756.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 2.9 m | 2.4 m | 2.3 m | 2.6 m | 1.3 m | 1.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 398.5 m | 437.9 m | 481.0 m | 452.1 m | 488.7 m | 502.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -1.3 m | 10.3 m | 39.9 m | 60.9 m | 88.8 m | 114.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 126.9 m | 120.7 m | 120.0 m | 121.6 m | 130.0 m | 141.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 125.6 m ≈ | 131.0 m ≈ | 159.9 m ≈ | 182.6 m ≈ | 218.8 m ≈ | 255.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -28.9 m | -50.1 m | -14.7 m | -7.4 m | 26.6 m | 56.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 0 | -11.8 m | 1.8 m | 2.2 m | 9.3 m | 16.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -28.9 m | -38.3 m | -16.4 m | -9.6 m | 17.3 m | 40.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.27 | -0.28 | -0.08 | -0.05 | 0.09 | 0.20 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 9.7 m | 134.7 m | 194.2 m | 194.7 m | 198.9 m | 199.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.0 m | 14.6 m | 31.1 m | 38.6 m | 44.5 m | 27.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 121.2 m | 107.2 m | 87.0 m | 103.5 m | 109.8 m | 114.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 391.7 m | 533.5 m | 489.3 m | 382.7 m | 403.7 m | 485.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.1 m | 668.3 m | 631.6 m | 548.0 m | 573.2 m | 646.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 182.7 m | 174.3 m | 190.3 m | 200.6 m | 224.2 m | 231.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 816.2 m | 825.4 m | 823.8 m | 825.0 m | 828.6 m | 830.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 826.0 m | 794.7 m | 734.5 m | 655.3 m | 605.9 m | 546.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 501.2 m | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 127.5 k | 186.1 m | 131.8 m | 140.3 m | 139.1 m | 141.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 11.5 m | 11.4 m | 10.6 m | 10.0 m | 13.0 m | 14.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.5 bn | 906.5 m | 884.6 m | 731.7 m | 691.7 m | 668.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 127.5 k | 277.3 m | 215.4 m | 223.1 m | 253.7 m | 257.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 73.3 m | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 5.0 m † | 1.2 bn † | 1.2 bn † | 1.2 bn † | 1.2 bn † | 1.2 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -1.3 m | -110.3 m | 119.0 m | 238.0 m | 183.3 m | 105.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 45.3 m | 51.6 m | 69.6 m | 65.8 m | 85.2 m | 70.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -46.5 m ≈ | -161.8 m ≈ | 49.4 m ≈ | 172.3 m ≈ | 98.1 m ≈ | 35.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -500.0 m | -90.5 m | -72.8 m | -67.9 m | -143.4 m | -70.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 502.3 m | 193.3 m | -28.7 m | -162.0 m | -39.3 m | -52.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 12.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 35 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality35
- Growth12
- Balance sheet29
- Returns32
- Valuation46
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.60 – 12.15 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA3.68 – 12.15 (Mid 11.98)6 companies used · median multiple 12.9x · quartiles 6.5x – 13.0xACU, EML, LCUT, RECT, SNA, SSD
- Peers: P/E2.60 – 2.88 (Mid 2.70)6 companies used · median multiple 21.1x · quartiles 20.3x – 22.5xACU, CIX, EML, SNA, SSD, SWK
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 35/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 3.5% | 17 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.5% | 0 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 424.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 1.5% | 12 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 3.7x | 0 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 66.6x | 0 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 10.2x | 67 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.2% | 78 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.3% | 32 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet29/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial12/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality35/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial32/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation46/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-26.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.4%; net margin 1.5%; ROE 2.0%; net debt/EBITDA 3.7x.
The estimated value range is 3.14–7.51 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.34 USD, the price of 8.53 USD leaves a potential of -14.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -16.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 35/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 424.7%
- Current ratio: 2.6x
- FCF yield: 6.2%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 3.5%
- Net margin: 1.5%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.5%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 3.7x
- P/E (TTM): 66.6x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware (SIC 3420) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNASnap-on Inc | 18.9 bn | 19.1 | 17.0% | 19.2% | unavailable | +8% / +33% |
| SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | 17.1 bn | 20.6 | 9.4% | 5.5% | unavailable | +61% / +27% |
| SSDSimpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | 8.1 bn | 21.5 | 18.3% | 15.6% | +4.5% | +19% / +19% |
| HLMNHillman Solutions Corp. | 1.7 bn | 66.6 | 2.0% | 1.5% | +5.4% | −6% / +23% |
| CIXCompx International Inc | 451.8 m | 22.8 | 16.3% | 14.0% | +8.5% | +63% / +56% |
| ACUAcme United Corp | 263.9 m | 28.9 | 8.4% | 4.6% | +1.1% | +86% / +91% |
| LCUTLifetime Brands, Inc. | 178.6 m | 6.0 | 14.5% | 4.3% | −5.1% | +104% / +21% |
| EMLThe Eastern Company | 163.7 m | 20.3 | 6.3% | 3.4% | unavailable | +40% / +50% |
| RECTRectitude Holdings Ltd | 18.4 m | 6.7 | 13.9% | 7.0% | +22.0% | −37% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HLMN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 4.77 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 8.45 Total return -1% · Per year -1% | 12.75 Total return 49% · Per year 49% |
| 3 years | 4.35 Total return -49% · Per year -20% | 8.70 Total return 2% · Per year 1% | 14.45 Total return 69% · Per year 19% |
| 5 years | 3.97 Total return -53% · Per year -14% | 8.96 Total return 5% · Per year 1% | 16.38 Total return 92% · Per year 14% |
- Exit P/E± 2.18
- Net margin± 1.52
- Annual revenue growth± 1.29
- Annual dilution± 0.13
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Hillman Solutions is one of the largest North American providers of hardware products and merchandising services, selling small parts such as fasteners, keys and protective gear to retailers. Net sales reached 1552.2 million USD in fiscal 2025, and in the first half of 2026 the company raised its outlook and agreed to acquire Kanebridge, making it relevant to investors following consolidation in industrial distribution.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
Two large retailers generate close to half of sales; losing one could seriously affect results 1.
- Tariffs and import costshigh
Most products are sourced from abroad, and new tariffs could reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 12.
- Debt and acquisition integrationmedium
Refinancing and the 315 million USD Kanebridge purchase could add pressure on cash flow if integration does not go well 3.
- Housing market demandmedium
If home sales stay low, remodel projects could remain subdued, affecting volumes 1.
- Currencylow
Exposure to the Canadian dollar and Asian currencies could affect reported results 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Second-quarter sales growth and a raised outlook suggest the distribution model is working even in a weak market 3.
- Cash generation rose sharply, which could allow debt reduction or share repurchases 3.
- Recent acquisitions extend categories and channels, which could reduce dependence on large customers over time 23.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on a few large customers and on the housing market limits the ability to grow quickly 1.
- New tariffs could erase part of the benefit from refunds, and higher prices could reduce demand 2.
- Debt remains significant, and continued acquisitions could strain the balance sheet if synergies are delayed 3.
What to watch
- Closing of the Kanebridge acquisition and its effect on guidanceQ4 2026
- Evolution of tariffs after the court ruling and IEEPA refundsQ4 2026
- Full-year 2026 results and confirmation of guidance2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Hillman Solutions Corp. (Nasdaq: HLMN), headquartered in Cincinnati, operates through its subsidiary Hillman and sells to hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants and pet supply stores, mainly in the United States, Canada and Mexico 1. Its range includes thousands of hard-to-manage small items such as fasteners, threaded rod, keys, builder's hardware, protective equipment and identification products, supported by in-store merchandising and replenishment 1. Operations are organized in three segments, and key customers are big box chains, especially Home Depot and Lowe's 1.
The business model relies on a field sales and service force of over 1200 people who visit stores, reorder stock and propose new products, which the company describes as its main competitive advantage 1. Hillman runs 24 distribution centers in North America and ships direct to stores rather than only through customers' distribution networks 1. The company has also grown through acquisitions, including Koch, Intex and, in 2026, Campbell Chain and Fittings and Delaney Hardware 12.
Beyond physical products, Hillman operates a robotic kiosk division for key duplication and engraving of identification tags, which contributes a smaller share of sales but has seen margins improve in recent years 13. In the second quarter of 2026 net sales grew 9.8 percent, supported by steady demand for hardware products and growth in the robotics division 3.
Segments
Hardware and Protective Solutions
The largest segment, which generated about 1194.0 million USD in 2025 and represents roughly three quarters of sales, covers fasteners, builder's hardware, threaded rod, rope and chain, tags and protective gear such as gloves and eyewear 1. Growth in 2025 came mainly from price increases that offset tariffs, and the Intex acquisition added cleaning products 1.
Canada
The segment generated about 138.1 million USD in 2025, down from prior years, reflecting lower volumes and an unfavorable Canadian dollar exchange rate 1.
Market context
Hillman competes in the North American hardware and retail merchandising market, serving large home improvement chains and cooperatives of independent stores 1. Demand depends on repair and remodel activity, and existing home sales in the U.S. in 2025 hit a 30-year low, limiting growth 1.
The customer base is concentrated: the two largest retailers made up about 43 percent of 2025 revenue, which makes the company sensitive to their decisions 1. The company says repair projects are less sensitive to the economic cycle than remodel projects, which could stabilize revenue in weaker periods 1.
Trends
- Tariffsmixed
Most products are imported and tariffs raised costs, though the company passed some on through higher prices; the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariffs in February 2026 and Hillman sued for refunds, but new tariffs could offset the benefit 12. If tariff levels stay volatile, margin pressure could persist 2.
- Housing and construction demandheadwind
The housing market remains weak and consumer confidence and existing home sales have limited demand for remodel projects; if the market stabilizes, demand could recover 12.
- Acquisition-led consolidationtailwind
Hillman completed the Campbell and Delaney acquisitions in 2026 and agreed to buy Kanebridge, expanding categories and channels in the U.S. 23. Integrating these businesses could bring synergies but also operational difficulties 3.
- Currency exposuremixed
Purchases priced in U.S. dollars from China and Taiwan and sales in Canadian dollars expose the company to currency moves; the dollar weakened against the yuan in 2025 and 2026, which helped costs but could reverse 12.
Competitive position
Hillman competes with other hardware distributors and with key and engraving equipment suppliers, and its stated edge is service through its field sales force and direct-to-store delivery 1. It also supplies cooperatives of independent stores, which places it against distributors serving the same networks 1.
Competition in key and engraving kiosks is led by a few niche players, and proprietary innovation such as MinuteKey is the main differentiator 13. The risk is that large retailers or rivals could introduce similar products, pressuring margins 1.
- Ace Hardware cooperative
A cooperative of independent stores that is both an important Hillman customer and a competing distribution channel for hardware products 1.
- Do It Best cooperative
A hardware store cooperative to which Hillman ships products; the company has received vendor of the year recognition from this customer 1.
- Independent hardware distributors
Regional and national distributors selling small parts and fasteners to the same stores, where Hillman defends its position through in-store service 1.
- Key and engraving kiosk manufacturers
Suppliers of automated key duplication and engraving equipment that compete with Hillman's robotics segment 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Revamped Food Opera food court at Ion Orchard has Cantonese eatery Hillman, Ming Chung White Lor Mee and moreCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 25 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 25 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
- Current report02 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Sept 2026Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Material agreement · Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Jul 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Jul 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report28 Apr 2026
- Current report27 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-27 · SEC / Hillman Solutions Corp. · 17 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / Hillman Solutions Corp. · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Hillman Solutions Corp. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.