olivLaw · US equity research
HSBC Holdings plc HSBC
Savings Institution, Federally Chartered · SIC 6035 · Vertical: Savings Institution, Federally Chartered (SIC 6035)
HSBC Holdings plc is one of the largest international banks, active in retail, wealth, commercial banking and investment banking. It reported revenue of 68.3 bn USD in 2025, and its current context is shaped by organisational simplification and medium-term growth targets.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) stock was 89.37 USD (+5.78% on the day), with market capitalisation 1,535.0 bn USD, P/E 74.5 on diluted EPS of 1.20 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.88%, beta 0.91, 52-week range 67.56–107.86 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 43.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 83.71 – 97.82
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.40 · band width 15.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 97.40 / 93.48
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -3.18 / -3.05
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −7.6% | −1.1% | −6.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −13.0% | −0.5% | −12.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −2.2% | +4.4% | −6.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +13.6% | +12.3% | +1.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +27.9% | +13.5% | +14.4 pp | +26.3% |
| 3 years | +138.7% | +76.4% | +62.3 pp | +71.9% |
| 5 years | +204.8% | +63.7% | +141.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 60 percentile of its own 10-quarter history (min 35.6, median 65.4, max 574.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 13.7 bn | 7.4 bn | 5.2 bn | 13.9 bn | 16.0 bn | 24.6 bn | 25.0 bn | 23.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | +27.1% | −46.2% | −29.2% | +166.2% | +15.2% | +53.2% | +1.8% | −7.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.63 | 0.30 | 0.19 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 1.14 | 1.24 | 1.20 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +31.3% | −52.4% | −36.7% | +226.3% | +16.1% | +58.3% | +8.8% | −3.2% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 31.3 bn | 28.4 bn | 180.8 bn | 103.2 bn | 18.1 bn | 38.0 bn | 64.0 bn | 28.3 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 432.9 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 205.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3,233.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 11.6%
- ROA
- 0.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 8.8 bn | 18.9 bn | 17.1 bn | 30.3 bn | 32.3 bn | 29.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 5.2 bn | 13.9 bn | 16.0 bn | 24.6 bn | 25.0 bn | 23.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.19 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 1.14 | 1.24 | 1.20 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.10 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 0.63 | 0.95 | 0.78 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 468.3 bn | 574.0 bn | 521.7 bn | 490.9 bn | 434.9 bn | 432.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2,984.2 bn | 2,953.8 bn | 2,949.3 bn | 3,038.7 bn | 3,017.0 bn | 3,233.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2,779.2 bn | 2,757.5 bn | 2,764.1 bn | 2,846.1 bn | 2,824.8 bn | 3,027.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 205.0 bn | 196.3 bn | 185.2 bn | 192.6 bn | 192.3 bn | 205.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 20.7 bn | 20.6 bn | 20.3 bn | 19.3 bn | 17.9 bn | 17.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 2.0 bn | 6.4 bn | 7.0 bn | 12.2 bn | 17.1 bn | 13.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | — | 2.3 bn | 5.8 bn | 11.3 bn | 9.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Banking
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1,535.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 10.32 – 19.05 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income11.98 – 12.51 (Mid 12.24)
- Justified P/B14.16 – 19.05 (Mid 16.25)
- Dividend discount (DDM)10.32 – 13.87 (Mid 11.83)
- Peers: P/E13.45 – 16.06 (Mid 14.90)10 companies used · median multiple 12.4x · quartiles 11.2x – 13.4xAX, BKU, CFFN, EBC, FCAP, HFBL, HTB, KRNY, NRIM, WNEB
- Peers: P/B11.81 – 15.87 (Mid 13.20)12 companies used · median multiple 1.1x · quartiles 1.0x – 1.4xAX, BKU, CFFN, EBC, FCAP, FDSB, HFBL, HTB, KFFB, KRNY, NRIM, WNEB
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 12.1% | 79 (vs peers) | 28% |
| ROA · Quality | 0.7% | 24 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Cost-to-income · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net interest margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 18.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| NPL ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Cost of risk · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Loan-to-deposit · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/B · Valuation | 7.7x | 0 (vs peers) | 17% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 74.5x | 0 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 0.9% | 9 (vs peers) | 14% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality64/100 · 2/4 factors with a value
- Returns9/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC (HSBC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 12.1%.
The estimated value range is 11.98–15.87 USD per share (median of 5 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 13.20 USD, the price of 89.37 USD leaves a potential of -85.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -577.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROE: 12.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 18.6%
What contradicts it
- ROA: 0.7%
- P/B: 7.7x
- P/E (TTM): 74.5x
- Dividend yield: 0.9%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Cost-to-income, Net interest margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, NPL ratio, Cost of risk, Loan-to-deposit.
Versus the vertical median
Savings Institution, Federally Chartered (SIC 6035) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSBCHsbc Holdings PLC | 1,535.0 bn | 74.5 | 12.1% | — | unavailable | +28% / +139% |
| AXAxos Financial, Inc. | 5.4 bn | 10.7 | 16.7% | 624.8% | +23.5% | +15% / +147% |
| EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc. | 5.3 bn | 13.3 | 9.4% | 257.2% | +19.1% | +24% / +95% |
| TFSLTfs Financial Corporation | 4.7 bn | 46.0 | 5.3% | — | unavailable | +17% / +26% |
| BKUBankUnited, Inc. | 3.2 bn | 12.3 | 9.2% | 1,154.5% | +7.4% | +4% / +63% |
| CFFNCapitol Federal Financial, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 13.4 | 8.0% | 508.2% | +6.5% | +33% / +63% |
| HTBHomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 798.6 m | 12.5 | 11.0% | — | −1.9% | +17% / +107% |
| KRNYKearny Financial Corp. | 605.1 m | 16.4 | 4.8% | — | +36.0% | +36% / +18% |
| NRIMNorthrim Bancorp, Inc. | 545.0 m | 9.9 | 16.6% | 21.8% | +30.4% | −0% / +99% |
| WNEBWestern New England Bancorp, Inc. | 281.6 m | 16.7 | 6.9% | — | −34.3% | +15% / +79% |
| FCAPFirst Capital, Inc. | 215.3 m | 11.6 | 13.9% | 252.8% | +1.6% | +29% / +145% |
| FDSBFifth District Bancorp, Inc. | 92.5 m | 52.4 | 1.3% | 273.6% | −2.3% | +29% / unavailable |
| HFBLHome Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana | 67.7 m | 11.1 | 10.8% | 364.5% | +30.0% | +40% / +72% |
| KFFBKentucky First Federal Bancorp | 44.4 m | 32.0 | 2.9% | — | −11.8% | +31% / +18% |
| BYFCBroadway Financial Corporation | — | — | -7.6% | -11,027.1% | +18.7% | +86% / +54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HSBC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (30 Oct 2026).
In brief
HSBC Holdings plc is one of the largest international banks, active in retail, wealth, commercial banking and investment banking. It reported revenue of 68.3 bn USD in 2025 1, and its current context is shaped by organisational simplification and medium-term growth targets 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Notable itemshigh
Disposal losses, the BoCom dilution and legal provisions reduced reported profit 1.
- Capital risk in 2026medium
The Hang Seng Bank privatisation could push CET1 below the target range, with buy-backs paused until it recovers 1.
- Commercial real estate creditmedium
Provisions for the Hong Kong CRE sector increased in 2025 1.
- Interest ratesmedium
Lower rates could reduce interest income on deposits 1.
- Restructuring costslow
Restructuring added costs in 2025 and could add more 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- CET1 return to the target range after the Hang Seng Bank privatisation2026
- Completion of the 1.5 bn USD annualised cost reductionJune 2026
- RoTE excluding notable items against the 17% or better target2026-2028
- Credit loss charges for Hong Kong CREnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (04 Nov 2026), 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (30 Oct 2026).
The business
HSBC organises its activity into four businesses: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and Wealth and Commercial Banking, each contributing distinctly to group profit 1. The bank describes its model as highly capital generative, with a CET1 ratio of 14.9% at 31 December 2025 1. Total assets reached 3.2 tn USD 1.
Segments
Hong Kong
The Hong Kong business, covering Retail Banking and Wealth and Commercial Banking for HSBC Hong Kong and Hang Seng Bank, contributed 9.6 bn USD to group profit before tax 1. Wealth fee income grew significantly in 2025 1.
Market context
HSBC operates in markets across Asia, Europe and the Middle East, with strong positions in Hong Kong and the UK 1. Revenue rose to 68.3 bn USD in 2025 1.
Client demand for wealth products and trading in volatile markets supported fee income in 2025 1. Growth in deposit balances and mortgages contributed to interest income 1.
Trends
- Organisational simplificationtailwind
The reorganisation has generated cost savings and could support margins if the cost reduction target is confirmed 1.
- Privatisation of Hang Seng Bankheadwind
The privatisation could temporarily push capital below the target range in the first half of 2026 1.
- Hong Kong commercial property marketheadwind
Oversupply of non-residential property continues to pressure values, raising credit loss charges 1.
- Market volatilitymixed
Elevated volatility supported revenue in Global Foreign Exchange and Debt and Equity Markets, but this could reverse 1.
Competitive position
HSBC competes with other large international banks in transaction banking, investment banking and wealth management, as well as with local banks in retail markets 1. The sources provided do not detail competitors' relative positions.
Competitive strengths cited include the leading position in Hong Kong and the cross-border transaction banking network 1. Pressure on deposit margins in a lower rate environment remains a concern 1.
- International investment and transaction banks
Compete in the CIB division, where HSBC leads in cross-border transaction banking 1.
- Local banks in Hong Kong
Compete in retail and commercial banking, especially on deposits and lending 1.
- UK retail and digital banks
Compete on mortgages, deposits and retail products in the UK division 1.
- Asset managers and wealth managers
Compete in the Wealth division, where HSBC grew fee income 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- When datacenters lose power, generators should kick in. That didn’t happen for Google in LondonThe Register · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Corporate green reports: Do independent checks really help companies deliver measurable action?Phys.org · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- HSBC to open Hong Kong AI Institute following Singapore launchCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- HSBC to open Hong Kong AI Institute following Singapore launchThe Straits Times — Asia · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Viața la 5,5 lei sau 6 lei pentru un euro. Cât m-ar costa aceleași rate și facturiHotNews.ro · 31 Oct 2026 · RO
- Uber Joins HSBC, Franklin Templeton in Blockchain Investing TestBloomberg Markets · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- HSBC Seeks to Hedge Data Center Debt With Credit Risk InsuranceBloomberg Markets · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Lloyds formează dublu minim înainte de bugetul Regatului Unit și rezultatele T3 - InvezzSurge — Google News · 28 Oct 2026 · RO
- Un trimestru fantastic pentru marile bănci europene, care raportează profituri de miliarde de euro. HSBC (8,6 mld. euro), BNP Paribas (3,5 mld. euro), UBS (2,4 mld. euro) şi Deutsche Bank (1,9 mld. euro) depăşesc aşteptările analiştilor, în ciuda turbulenţelor de pe pieţeZiarul Financiar · 28 Oct 2026 · RO
- Рынки акций Европы выросли во вторник, кроме БританииInterfax Russia (RU) · 28 Oct 2026 · RU
- HSBC pierde 6,5% la bursă după ce veniturile au ratat estimările analiştilor. Cea mai mare bancă europeană anunţă răscumpărări de acţiuni de 1 mld. dolariZiarul Financiar · 27 Oct 2026 · RO
- HSBC says ‘no pressure’ to move HQ out of UK despite prospect of higher bank taxesThe Guardian World · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Customers are chasing higher-rate products, and that’s bad news for banks like HSBCMarketWatch — Top Stories · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- European shares dip as HSBC results weigh on banks ahead of Big Tech earningsCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- European Stocks Pulled Lower by Banks as HSBC Results DisappointBloomberg Markets · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- HSBC Earnings: Profit Jump and $1 Billion Buyback Fall Short of Investors HopesBloomberg Markets · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- HSBC Reports Profit Miss, Announces Buyback (Video)Bloomberg Markets · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- FTSE 100 Live: UK Stocks Set to Fall as HSBC Profit Falls ShortBloomberg Markets · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- HSBC's third-quarter profit jumps 32%, launches buyback of up to $1 billionCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- HSBC quarterly profit jumps but shares slide after flat revenue for wealth businessCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / HSBC Holdings plc · 26 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.