olivLaw · US equity research
Howmet Aerospace Inc. HWM
Rolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals · SIC 3350 · Vertical: Primary metal industries (SIC 335x)
Howmet Aerospace is a global supplier of advanced metal components for jet engines, fastening systems, aircraft structures and forged aluminum wheels for trucks. The company is in a growth phase, supported by demand in aerospace and gas turbines, and by the Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing acquisition of roughly 1.8 billion USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) stock was 213.56 USD (−4.28% on the day), with market capitalisation 84.9 bn USD, P/E 41.8 on diluted EPS of 5.11 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.23%, beta 1.21, 52-week range 185.91–292.65 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.7 bn USD (+29.4% YoY), net income of 567.0 m USD (+47.3% YoY), diluted EPS 1.42 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 49.4
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 185.84 – 234.06
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.57 · band width 23.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 226.05 / 248.60
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -5.47 / -8.20
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −7.0% | −1.1% | −5.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −26.7% | −0.5% | −26.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −16.7% | +4.4% | −21.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +4.2% | +12.3% | −8.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +4.2% | +13.5% | −9.4 pp | +7.9% |
| 3 years | +345.1% | +76.4% | +268.7 pp | +73.8% |
| 5 years | +539.4% | +63.7% | +475.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Research & development | 7.0 m | 8.0 m | 9.0 m | 10.0 m | 10.0 m | 9.0 m | 8.0 m | 11.0 m |
| SG&A | 77.0 m | 85.0 m | 89.0 m | 100.0 m | 96.0 m | 111.0 m | 148.0 m | 120.0 m |
| Operating income | 445.0 m | 494.0 m | 521.0 m | 542.0 m | 489.0 m | 753.0 m | 711.0 m | 777.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 73.0 m | 69.0 m | 69.0 m | 72.0 m | 73.0 m | 74.0 m | 84.0 m | 93.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 392.0 m | 446.0 m | 469.0 m | 495.0 m | 430.0 m | 708.0 m | 649.0 m | 721.0 m |
| Income tax | 78.0 m | 102.0 m | 62.0 m | 110.0 m | 58.0 m | 128.0 m | 115.0 m | 154.0 m |
| Net income | 314.0 m | 344.0 m | 407.0 m | 385.0 m | 372.0 m | 580.0 m | 534.0 m | 567.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.77 ≈ | 0.84 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.92 ≈ | 1.44 | 1.33 | 1.42 |
| Operating cash flow | 480.0 m | 253.0 m | 446.0 m ≈ | 531.0 m ≈ | 654.0 m | 453.0 m | 583.0 m ≈ | 709.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 102.0 m | 119.0 m | 102.0 m ≈ | 108.0 m ≈ | 124.0 m | 94.0 m | 104.0 m ≈ | 147.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 33.0 m | 42.0 m | 41.0 m ≈ | 48.0 m ≈ | 50.0 m | 48.0 m | 49.0 m ≈ | 56.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 190.0 m | 125.0 m | 175.0 m ≈ | 200.0 m ≈ | 200.0 m | 300.0 m | 300.0 m ≈ | 500.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 59 percentile of its own 32-quarter history (min 10.0, median 37.5, max 112.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | ⚠ 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.8 bn | 7.1 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.6 bn | 7.4 bn | 8.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | — | +4.7% | −25.9% | −5.5% | +13.9% | +17.3% | +11.9% | +11.1% |
| Net income | 642.0 m | 470.0 m | 261.0 m | 258.0 m | 469.0 m | 765.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Net income YoY | — | −26.8% | −44.5% | −1.1% | +81.8% | +63.1% | +51.0% | +30.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.30 | 1.03 | unavailable | 0.59 | 1.11 | 1.83 | 2.81 | 3.71 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | — | −20.8% | unavailable | unavailable | +88.1% | +64.9% | +53.6% | +32.0% |
| net % | 9.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 18.3% |
| Free cash flow | -551.0 m | -180.0 m | -258.0 m | 250.0 m | 540.0 m | 682.0 m | 977.0 m | 1.4 bn |
The series breaks before 2018: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 742.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 3.1 bn USD
- Net debt
- 2.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 5.4 bn USD
- Total assets
- 11.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.57x
- Current ratio
- 2.13x
- ROE
- 30.4%
- ROA
- 13.9%
- FCF margin
- 17.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.3 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.6 bn | 7.4 bn | 8.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 17.0 m | 17.0 m | 32.0 m | 36.0 m | 33.0 m | 37.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 277.0 m | 251.0 m | 288.0 m | 333.0 m | 347.0 m | 370.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 626.0 m | 748.0 m | 919.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 338.0 m | 270.0 m | 265.0 m | 272.0 m | 277.0 m | 283.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 964.0 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 317.0 m | 259.0 m | 229.0 m | 218.0 m | 195.0 m | 176.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 171.0 m | 324.0 m | 606.0 m | 975.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -40.0 m | 66.0 m | 137.0 m | 210.0 m | 228.0 m | 332.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 261.0 m | 258.0 m | 469.0 m | 765.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | 0.59 | 1.11 | 1.83 | 2.81 | 3.71 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 439.0 m | 435.0 m | 421.0 m | 416.0 m | 410.0 m | 406.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 0.26 | 0.44 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.6 bn | 720.0 m | 791.0 m | 610.0 m | 564.0 m | 742.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 328.0 m | 367.0 m | 506.0 m | 675.0 m | 689.0 m | 779.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 4.1 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 571.0 m | 549.0 m | 521.0 m | 505.0 m | 475.0 m | 457.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 11.4 bn | 10.2 bn | 10.3 bn | 10.4 bn | 10.5 bn | 11.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 599.0 m | 732.0 m | 962.0 m | 982.0 m | 948.0 m | 845.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 376.0 m | 5.0 m | 0 | 206.0 m | 6.0 m | 191.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 4.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.7 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 7.9 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.0 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.6 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn † | 4.6 bn † | 5.4 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 9.0 m | 449.0 m | 733.0 m | 901.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 267.0 m | 199.0 m | 193.0 m | 219.0 m | 321.0 m | 453.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -258.0 m ≈ | 250.0 m ≈ | 540.0 m ≈ | 682.0 m ≈ | 977.0 m ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 271.0 m | 107.0 m | -135.0 m | -215.0 m | -316.0 m | -438.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -369.0 m | -1.4 bn | -526.0 m | -868.0 m | -1.0 bn | -1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 11.0 m | 19.0 m | 44.0 m | 73.0 m | 109.0 m | 181.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 73.0 m | 430.0 m | 400.0 m | 250.0 m | 500.0 m | 700.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 64 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 84.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet68
- Valuation20
- Quality93
- Growth100
- Returns55
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 75.41 – 187.96 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)75.41 – 122.05 (Mid 93.45)WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 2.1 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA129.02 – 139.37 (Mid 138.89)3 companies used · median multiple 19.4x · quartiles 18.1x – 19.4xCRS, HXL, TDG
- Peers: P/E174.10 – 187.96 (Mid 185.39)5 companies used · median multiple 36.3x · quartiles 34.1x – 36.8xATI, CRS, HXL, TDG, WWD
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate5.78 – 7.78 (Mid 6.63)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
- ATI — specialty alloys and forgings for jet engines; same customer base (GE, RTX, Safran), same aerospace cycle
- CRS — specialty alloys for aerospace and defence (about 60% of sales); smaller, upstream of HWM
- TDG — proprietary aerospace components with a large aftermarket; structurally higher multiples (different pricing model and leverage)
- HEI — aerospace replacement parts and components (FAA-PMA) — the same aftermarket; high multiples, partial comparability on valuation
- HXL — composite materials for airframes; the same customers (Boeing, Airbus), no engines
- WWD — control systems for aircraft engines and industrial use; comparable on the aerospace segment, not the industrial one
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 64/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 25.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 21.1% | 83 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 94.0% | 91 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 13.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 49.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 40 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 15.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 88 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 41.8x | 33 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 29.1x | 0 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.3% | 28 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.8% | 25 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 10.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet68/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality93/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns55/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation20/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
HOWMET AEROSPACE INC. (HWM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 11.1%; net margin 21.1%; ROE 37.7%; net debt/EBITDA 1.3x.
The estimated value range is 129.02–139.37 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 138.89 USD, the price of 213.56 USD leaves a potential of -35.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -53.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 64/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 25.7%
- Net margin: 21.1%
- FCF conversion: 94.0%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 13.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 49.5%
- Interest coverage: 15.5x
- Current ratio: 1.9x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 10.5%
What contradicts it
- EV/EBITDA: 29.1x
- FCF yield: 2.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.8%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Primary metal industries (SIC 335x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLWCorning Inc | 102.3 bn | 48.1 | 17.1% | 12.1% | +19.1% | +41% / +317% |
| HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc. | 84.9 bn | 41.8 | 37.7% | 21.1% | +11.1% | +4% / +345% |
| MLIMueller Industries, Inc | 12.0 bn | 13.9 | 26.2% | 17.3% | +10.9% | +0% / +166% |
| BDCBelden Inc. | 4.1 bn | 23.6 | 13.4% | 5.6% | +10.3% | −7% / +58% |
| KALUKaiser Aluminum Corporation | 1.8 bn | 8.6 | 24.5% | 4.8% | +11.5% | +15% / +89% |
| NXQuanex Building Products Corporation | 1.0 bn | 22.8 | 6.2% | 2.4% | +43.8% | +74% / −27% |
| TGTredegar Corporation | 254.4 m | 7.6 | 15.8% | — | +16.1% | −7% / +55% |
| OCCOptical Cable Corporation | 99.1 m | 38.6 | 15.6% | 3.1% | +9.5% | +38% / +329% |
| APWCAsia Pacific Wire & Cable Corporation Limited | 23.1 m | 6.6 | 2.2% | 0.7% | +11.0% | −34% / −17% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HWM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 139.01 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 244.79 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 367.41 Total return 72% · Per year 72% |
| 3 years | 160.04 Total return -24% · Per year -9% | 314.63 Total return 48% · Per year 14% | 514.81 Total return 142% · Per year 34% |
| 5 years | 184.25 Total return -13% · Per year -3% | 404.40 Total return 91% · Per year 14% | 721.34 Total return 240% · Per year 28% |
- Exit P/E± 78.66
- Net margin± 55.06
- Annual revenue growth± 41.66
- Annual dilution± 4.63
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Howmet Aerospace is a global supplier of advanced metal components for jet engines, fastening systems, aircraft structures and forged aluminum wheels for trucks. The company is in a growth phase, supported by demand in aerospace and gas turbines, and by the Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing acquisition of roughly 1.8 billion USD.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in its main markets, proprietary technology and vertical integration for engine and structural components 1.
- Strong cash generation and significant debt reduction in recent years, giving flexibility for investment and share repurchases 13.
- Well-recognized brands and a large portfolio of patents and registered trademarks 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- If demand for spare parts and gas turbines continues, the company could expand capacity and market share 13.
- Acquisitions in aerospace fastening and defense could add revenue and margin in coming years 13.
- Growing demand for missiles, drones and collaborative combat aircraft could support the defense segment 3.
Threats
- The cyclicality of aerospace and dependence on Boeing and Airbus production rates can quickly affect volumes 1.
- Tariffs and volatile energy and metal prices could reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.
- Asian suppliers entering the aluminum wheel market could pressure prices in commercial transportation 1.
Risks
- Dependence on large customershigh
A few companies account for a significant share of sales, and losing one of them could have a material adverse effect 1.
- Boeing production ratehigh
Boeing quality issues and delays have already affected production rates, which directly influence financial results 1.
- Tariffs and trademedium
New tariffs and retaliatory measures by other countries could raise material costs and reduce competitiveness 1.
- Supply chainmedium
Reliance on single suppliers for titanium and alloys could halt production if disruptions occur 1.
- Acquisition integrationlow
Integrating CAM and Brunner could generate unexpected costs or delay expected synergies 23.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If growth in aerospace, defense and gas turbines continues, revenue and margins could keep improving 3.
- Strong cash generation gives room for capacity investment and share repurchases, which could support results over the medium term 3.
- A leading position in critical engine and structural components could protect the company from Asian competition over the long term.
What would break the thesis
- If Boeing or Airbus production falls again, volumes for engine and fastening parts could drop quickly and profitability could suffer.
- The CAM acquisition and its associated debt could reduce financial flexibility if integration does not go as planned.
- The commercial transportation market remains weak, and Asian competition could pressure aluminum wheel prices over the long term.
What to watch
- Completion of CAM integration and its effect on Fastening Systems segment marginsQ3 2026
- Delivery against the raised 2026 guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA2026
- Level of capital expenditure announced for capacity expansion in 20272027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Howmet Aerospace Inc., headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 1, produces cast and forged parts for jet and gas turbine engines, aerospace fasteners and structural components, and forged aluminum wheels for commercial vehicles. The company took its current identity after the 2016 and 2020 separations from Alcoa and Arconic 1.
On August 6, 2026, the company reported second quarter 2026 results, with revenue up 24% and adjusted EBITDA margin at 32.1% 3. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised, and the CAM acquisition closed in April 2026 23.
Trends
- Growth in commercial aircraft productiontailwind
A record backlog for commercial aircraft and growing need for engine spare parts support demand for the Engine Products segment. If OEM production rates stay high, aerospace revenue could keep growing.
- Demand for gas turbinestailwind
Growth in data centers and electricity needs has led to strong demand for gas turbines, which customers have been revising upward 13. This market could offset weakness in other segments.
- Weakness in commercial transportationheadwind
Volumes for aluminum truck wheels fell in 2025 and in the first quarter of 2026, and the recovery is only starting 13. Asian competition in the aluminum wheel market adds pricing pressure.
- Raw material costs and tariffsmixed
Prices for titanium, nickel, aluminum and energy are volatile, and new tariffs could raise costs 1. The company seeks to pass increases on to customers, but this is not always immediate 1.
Competitive position
Competition is intense across segments: Berkshire Hathaway (through Precision Castparts), VSMPO, ATI, Lisi Aerospace, Aubert & Duval, Doncasters and Weber Metals compete for aerospace metal components 1. In aluminum wheels, competitors include Accuride, Speedline, Nippon Steel and suppliers from China and India 1.
The company's edge comes from technology, capacity, quality and long customer relationships, but many products can be made by other players 1. It can remain a market leader, though pressure from Asian wheel suppliers could grow if prices fall.
- Berkshire Hathaway (Precision Castparts)BRK.B
Competes in titanium, precision forgings, seamless rolled rings and aerospace fasteners 1.
- ATI Inc.ATI
Its high-performance materials segment competes in titanium and precision forgings 1.
- Lisi Aerospace
French company competing in aerospace fastening systems 1.
- Accuride Corporation
Competitor in aluminum wheels for the commercial transportation industry 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Faces New Competitive Pressure after GE’s $11.75 Billion CPP DealYahoo Finance — News · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Suggests Waiting for a Lower Entry on Howmet Aerospace (HWM)Yahoo Finance — News · 13 Sept 2026 · EN
- Is Howmet Aerospace Stock Outperforming the S&P 500?Yahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Robust Aftermarket Boosts Howmet Aerospace (HWM) PerformanceYahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Should You Buy Howmet Stock After Its Turbine Blade Scare?Yahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Howmet Aerospace Stock Is Sliding on SpaceX Fears. Here’s Why That Could Be a Buying Opportunity.Yahoo Finance — News · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
- SpaceX Just Dealt a Big Blow to Howmet Aerospace StockYahoo Finance — News · 05 Sept 2026 · EN
- Elon Musk’s Tweet Scared Howmet Investors. It Shouldn’t Have.Yahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: PG&E, Edison International, Apple, Howmet Aerospace, Eli Lilly & moreCNBC — Top News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 14 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report06 Apr 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Proxy statement06 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Howmet Aerospace Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Howmet Aerospace Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Howmet Aerospace Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.