olivLaw · US equity research
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. IDYA
Pharmaceutical Preparations · SIC 2834 · Vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)
IDEAYA Biosciences is a precision oncology company developing targeted therapies, mainly for uveal melanoma and for solid tumors with MTAP deletions, using synthetic lethality and ADC combinations. It matters now because the registrational OptimUM-02 trial met its primary endpoint and the company held about $1.24 billion in cash at June 30, 2026.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA) stock was 32.36 USD (+3.29% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.1 bn USD, beta 1.06, 52-week range 27.60–42.48 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 10.2 m USD (−95.1% YoY), net income of -125.7 m USD (−205.5% YoY), diluted EPS -1.22 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 39.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 30.93 – 36.97
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.24 · band width 17.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 36.71 / 33.96
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.30 / -1.13
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −15.0% | −2.0% | −13.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −10.2% | −2.2% | −8.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +12.6% | +4.3% | +8.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −6.4% | +10.6% | −17.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +6.2% | +10.5% | −4.3 pp | +19.9% |
| 3 years | +11.7% | +73.7% | −61.9 pp | +31.3% |
| 5 years | +37.2% | +61.7% | −24.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.0 m | — | — | 207.8 m | 10.9 m | 6.6 m | 8.9 m | 10.2 m |
| Research & development | 140.2 m | 70.9 m | 74.2 m | 83.0 m | 86.6 m | 95.7 m | 83.0 m | 121.6 m |
| Operating income | -144.1 m | -84.4 m | -88.8 m | 108.5 m | -94.6 m | -108.5 m | -122.3 m | -137.6 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 572.0 k | 600.0 k | 700.0 k | 700.0 k | 721.0 k | 688.0 k | 700.0 k | 700.0 k |
| Income tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ |
| Net income | -130.3 m | -72.2 m | -77.5 m | 119.2 m | -83.3 m | -98.5 m | -112.5 m | -125.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | -1.49 ≈ | -0.82 | -0.88 | 1.33 | -0.94 ≈ | -1.11 | -1.22 | -1.22 |
| Operating cash flow | -121.7 m | -60.3 m | -62.5 m ≈ | 142.2 m ≈ | -90.5 m | -75.2 m | -88.2 m ≈ | -93.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 1.1 m | 1.3 m | 663.0 k ≈ | 42.0 k ≈ | 333.0 k | 967.0 k | 866.0 k ≈ | 273.0 k ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | 0 | 19.5 m | 27.9 m | 50.9 m | 23.4 m | 7.0 m | 218.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +43.0% | +82.3% | −54.1% | −70.1% | +3,024.4% |
| Net income | -34.3 m | -42.0 m | -34.5 m | -49.8 m | -58.7 m | -113.0 m | -274.5 m | -113.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | -1.40 | -1.41 | -1.42 | -1.96 | -3.36 | -1.28 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | -176.6% | -178.1% | -115.2% | -483.0% | -3,921.1% | -52.0% |
| Free cash flow | -29.3 m | -40.7 m | 55.0 m | -58.4 m | -90.6 m | -117.6 m | -251.4 m | -73.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 112.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 1.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 1.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 11.34x
- ROE
- -10.9%
- ROA
- -10.2%
- FCF margin
- -33.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.5 m | 27.9 m | 50.9 m | 23.4 m | 7.0 m | 218.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 39.7 m | 58.2 m | 89.5 m | 129.5 m | 294.7 m | 314.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -35.3 m | -50.3 m | -62.5 m | -134.4 m | -327.0 m | -159.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.4 m | 1.7 m | 2.1 m | 2.5 m | 2.4 m | 2.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -34.0 m ≈ | -48.5 m ≈ | -60.4 m ≈ | -132.0 m ≈ | -324.6 m ≈ | -156.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Income tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -34.5 m | -49.8 m | -58.7 m | -113.0 m | -274.5 m | -113.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.40 | -1.41 | -1.42 | -1.96 | -3.36 | -1.28 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 24.7 m | 35.3 m | 41.4 m | 57.5 m | 81.7 m | 88.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 72.0 m | 92.0 m | 68.6 m | 157.0 m | 84.4 m | 112.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 288.6 m | 251.0 m | 370.5 m | 532.6 m | 689.7 m | 666.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.3 m | 4.8 m | 6.5 m | 6.2 m | 9.0 m | 8.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 298.3 m | 381.3 m | 388.0 m | 649.3 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 953.0 k | 2.1 m | 4.3 m | 6.6 m | 15.4 m | 17.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 38.6 m | 45.2 m | 31.7 m | 27.1 m | 46.1 m | 58.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 100.0 m | 79.8 m | 38.5 m | 28.2 m | 64.9 m | 86.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 198.3 m † | 301.5 m † | 349.5 m † | 621.1 m † | 1.1 bn † | 1.0 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 55.5 m | -55.8 m | -87.2 m | -115.2 m | -247.6 m | -71.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 493.0 k | 2.6 m | 3.4 m | 2.4 m | 3.9 m | 2.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 55.0 m ≈ | -58.4 m ≈ | -90.6 m ≈ | -117.6 m ≈ | -251.4 m ≈ | -73.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -146.2 m | -69.7 m | -33.4 m | -158.5 m | -502.6 m | 70.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 128.8 m | 145.5 m | 97.2 m | 362.7 m | 677.6 m | 29.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -1,149.6% | 12 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 62.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 31% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 9.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -11.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 31% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial12/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 218.7 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 3,024.4%; net margin -1,149.6%; ROE -38.5%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 62.5%
- Current ratio: 9.0x
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -1,149.6%
- FCF yield: -11.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly And Company | 1,325.9 bn | 45.7 | 86.1% | 31.9% | +44.7% | +31% / +138% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | 640.8 bn | 40.4 | 20.0% | 16.2% | +6.0% | +29% / +72% |
| ONCBeone Medicines Ltd. | 524.7 bn | 817.5 | 14.7% | 10.7% | +40.2% | +4% / +90% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | 505.5 bn | 49.2 | — | 15.7% | +8.6% | +26% / +101% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | 356.9 bn | 115.6 | 7.0% | 4.8% | +1.3% | +38% / +41% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | 190.6 bn | 30.6 | 12.4% | 13.9% | +5.7% | −15% / +5% |
| PFEPfizer Inc | 171.0 bn | 42.7 | 4.4% | 6.3% | −1.6% | +17% / −2% |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | 134.6 bn | 34.2 | 20.8% | 30.7% | +8.9% | +22% / +50% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | 126.1 bn | 13.7 | 44.1% | 18.5% | −0.2% | +25% / +25% |
| TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited | 48.9 bn | 97.6 | 6.6% | 3.6% | +4.3% | +56% / +327% |
| ZTSZoetis Inc. | 34.3 bn | 13.7 | 64.4% | 27.5% | +2.3% | −35% / −53% |
| ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd. | 26.0 bn | — | -6.2% | -3,535.0% | −71.6% | +73% / +277% |
| UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporation | 25.8 bn | 21.5 | 19.3% | 41.6% | +10.6% | +24% / +151% |
| RPRXRoyalty Pharma plc | 25.8 bn | 37.6 | 8.5% | 32.1% | +5.1% | +66% / +145% |
| INSMInsmed Inc | 22.9 bn | — | -72.5% | -39.9% | +66.7% | −50% / +317% |
| VTRSViatris Inc. | 21.7 bn | — | -23.6% | -23.9% | −3.0% | +77% / +106% |
| ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 21.4 bn | 8.1 | 126.6% | 52.8% | +65.2% | −65% / −5% |
| TGTXTg Therapeutics, Inc. | 9.4 bn | 22.5 | 100.3% | 55.2% | +87.3% | +85% / +381% |
| BLRXBioLineRx Ltd | 4.9 bn | — | -12.8% | -171.7% | −95.9% | −46% / −97% |
| IDYAIDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. | 3.1 bn | — | -38.5% | -1,149.6% | +3,024.4% | +6% / +12% |
| AGIOAgios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 1.9 bn | — | -34.3% | -418.2% | +48.0% | +7% / +41% |
| SLSSELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc. | 1.8 bn | — | -39.6% | — | −100.0% | +464% / +779% |
| SVRASavara Inc | 957.4 m | — | -105.5% | — | unavailable | −26% / +21% |
| PBYIPuma Biotechnology, Inc. | 551.8 m | 20.5 | 22.0% | 11.6% | −0.9% | +112% / +174% |
| STTKShattuck Labs, Inc. | 516.9 m | — | -39.2% | -5,256.8% | −82.5% | +145% / +163% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for IDYA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).
In brief
IDEAYA Biosciences is a precision oncology company developing targeted therapies, mainly for uveal melanoma and for solid tumors with MTAP deletions, using synthetic lethality and ADC combinations. It matters now because the registrational OptimUM-02 trial met its primary endpoint and the company held about $1.24 billion in cash at June 30, 2026 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a broad clinical pipeline with potentially first-in-class candidates and an advanced lead program, darovasertib, which met its primary endpoint in a randomized trial.
- Partnerships with Servier, Hengrui, Gilead and Roche can share costs and extend reach into markets.
- After the June 2026 offering the company holds a relatively strong cash position, giving more time to advance its programs.
Weaknesses
- The company has no approved products and no product sales revenue, so it depends on regulatory success.
- It reports recurring net losses and high development spending, which increases the need for future capital.
- It does not yet have a full sales and marketing organization, which could slow a launch if approval comes.
Opportunities
- If OptimUM-01 and OptimUM-02 data support an expanded indication, the company could reach a broader uveal melanoma population.
- Adjuvant and neoadjuvant studies could extend darovasertib beyond metastatic disease if results are favorable.
- The DLL3 program with IDE849 could become a major opportunity if registrational studies start on schedule.
Threats
- A major study failure or enrollment delays could push back the commercial timeline and weaken investor confidence.
- Reliance on partners for some programs can limit control over timing and resources.
- Funding conditions and banking-sector volatility could restrict access to additional capital if markets deteriorate.
Risks
- No approved productshigh
The company has no approved therapy and no product revenue, so any approval delay could directly affect its financial plans 1.
- Recurring losseshigh
The company has reported net losses and a significant accumulated deficit, and future losses are expected to continue as programs advance 1.
- Need for additional fundingmedium
The company says its cash covers at least 12 months, but its plans may require additional funds sooner through capital raises or collaborations 1.
- Partner dependencemedium
Several programs depend on collaborations, and GSK's notice to terminate the agreements for IDE705 and IDE275 shows that partnerships can be interrupted 12.
- Clinical and regulatory uncertaintymedium
Efficacy and safety results may differ in later studies, and regulators may ask for further data before approval 23.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the darovasertib NDA is accepted and expansion studies confirm benefit, the company could become the first to offer a targeted option for HLA*A2(-) metastatic uveal melanoma patients 13.
- A varied portfolio, from ADCs to MTAP programs, could reduce reliance on any single clinical outcome if several programs advance in parallel 12.
- Partnerships with Servier, Hengrui and Roche could bring funding and commercial experience if these collaborations remain active 13.
What would break the thesis
- The company could go a long time without product revenue, and development spending may create a need for additional capital in the coming period 1.
- Several programs depend on collaborations, and the interruption of one, as happened with GSK, could slow progress or reduce available resources 12.
- If overall survival data from OptimUM-02 do not confirm the early trend, the company could face difficulty convincing regulators and payers 3.
What to watch
- NDA submission for darovasertib in metastatic uveal melanomaH2 2026
- Updated OptimUM-01 and OptimUM-09 data presented at ESMOQ4 2026
- Overall survival update from OptimUM-02 at the planned interim analysis2027
- Start of a registrational trial of IDE849 in SCLC and NECend 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).
The business
IDEAYA is a precision oncology company focused on discovering, developing and commercializing cancer therapies, using small-molecule chemistry, structural biology and translational biomarkers 1. Its pipeline includes nine potential first-in-class candidates across four clinical areas: darovasertib for uveal melanoma, ADC and DDR combinations, the MTAP pathway and next-generation therapies 1. The company has no approved products and no product sales revenue; its revenue has come only from collaborations, mainly the Servier license 1.
The most advanced program is darovasertib, an oral protein kinase C inhibitor studied in metastatic, neoadjuvant and adjuvant uveal melanoma 1. In April 2026 the Phase 2/3 OptimUM-02 trial of the crizotinib combination met its primary endpoint for progression-free survival, and an NDA filing is underway with completion expected in the second half of 2026 23. The company says it could seek accelerated approval in the United States if the data support that path 1.
Other programs include IDE849, a DLL3-directed TOP1 ADC developed with partner Hengrui; IDE161, a PARG inhibitor; IDE397 (MAT2A) and IDE892 (PRMT5) targeting MTAP-deleted tumors; and IDE705, which is moving out of the GSK collaboration after GSK gave notice of termination 12. The company says its funds are sufficient for at least 12 months from the 2026 annual report 1.
Segments
Darovasertib for uveal melanoma
Darovasertib is the most advanced program, aimed at rare, aggressive uveal melanoma, where about 95% of patients carry activating GNAQ/11 mutations 1. The company is pursuing metastatic, neoadjuvant and adjuvant indications, and OptimUM-02 showed median progression-free survival of 6.9 months versus 3.1 months in the comparator arm 3.
Market context
The company targets precision oncology for molecularly defined solid tumors, and it states that no FDA-approved systemic therapies exist for primary uveal melanoma or for HLA*A2(-) metastatic uveal melanoma 1. By the company's estimate, about 1,500 new metastatic uveal melanoma cases arise each year in the United States, and HLA*A2(-) patients make up 60-65% of metastatic cases 1.
Market dynamics depend on clinical and regulatory success, the ability to secure partnerships, and reimbursement conditions for new therapies, which the company notes can shape patient access 23. Approval and launch timing remain uncertain, so the market opportunity depends on results from upcoming studies 1.
Trends
- Accelerated regulatory designationstailwind
Darovasertib has Breakthrough Therapy designation for primary uveal melanoma, and the crizotinib combination has Fast Track status; these could support faster review if the data hold up 1.
- Rolling NDA under RTORtailwind
The company has started pre-submitting NDA components under the Real-Time Oncology Review program, which could make review more efficient if the data stay consistent 2.
- Reallocation and enrollment pressuresheadwind
The company is reviewing capital allocation because of recruitment considerations for the OptimUM-10 Phase 3 trial, which could delay some programs if resources shift 23.
- Funding needs and capital marketsmixed
The company reports recurring net losses and an accumulated deficit, and its funding needs depend on market conditions; a June 2026 public offering raised substantial net proceeds, but capital access stays sensitive to the wider environment 13.
Competitive position
The sources do not give a full competitive analysis, but they note that industry consolidation among competitors or collaboration partners could change operating results 1. In uveal melanoma, the sources state that no systemic therapies are FDA-approved for HLA*A2(-) patients, so a launch would face existing alternatives in practice 1.
In TOP1 ADC and MTAP-directed oncology, competition comes from developers working on PRMT5 and MAT2A inhibitors or similar ADCs, and partners such as Hengrui and Roche may also become competitors in some areas 13. The sources give no market share figures or direct efficacy comparisons, so the assessment remains preliminary.
- Pfizer (crizotinib partner)
Pfizer supplies crizotinib, the c-MET inhibitor used with darovasertib in OptimUM-02; its role is partner rather than direct competitor.
- Servier
Servier holds the ex-US license for darovasertib and is also a development partner, so it acts as both collaborator and influencer of the competitive landscape.
- Gilead
Gilead collaborates on the IDE397 study with Trodelvy, a Trop-2 ADC; this is an alliance but also places it among ADC developers.
- Roche
Roche collaborates on IDE892 with RG6505, a pan-RAS inhibitor, while also developing targeted oncology therapies, so it could be a competitor as well as a partner.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Jun 2026Shareholder vote · Other events
- Current report10 Jun 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Jun 2026Other events
- Current report01 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. · 17 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.