olivLaw · US equity research
Innoviva, Inc. INVA
Pharmaceutical Preparations · SIC 2834 · Vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)
Innoviva combines a royalty portfolio from respiratory products partnered with GSK and a critical care and infectious disease platform, Innoviva Specialty Therapeutics (IST). As product sales grow, total revenue reached $411.3 million in fiscal 2025, and the company reported 46% growth in net product sales in the second quarter of 2026.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) stock was 19.24 USD (−9.50% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.4 bn USD, P/E 9.7 on diluted EPS of 1.97 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.20, 52-week range 19.24–24.24 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 106.1 m USD (−1.6% YoY), net income of -73.9 m USD (−182.2% YoY), diluted EPS -1.03 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 32.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 20.07 – 21.84
- below the lower band · %B -0.47 · band width 8.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 20.95 / 21.91
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.11 / -0.00
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −7.6% | −5.9% | −1.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −8.9% | −4.6% | −4.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −15.6% | +0.2% | −15.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −3.8% | +7.4% | −11.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +5.5% | +8.2% | −2.7 pp | +13.7% |
| 3 years | +41.0% | +68.4% | −27.5 pp | +19.7% |
| 5 years | +6.2% | +56.5% | −50.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 91.8 m | 88.6 m | 100.3 m | 107.8 m | 114.6 m | 98.0 m | 119.6 m | 106.1 m |
| Gross profit | 78.1 m | 73.3 m | 83.1 m | 75.5 m | 75.7 m | 75.8 m | 90.6 m | 84.4 m |
| Research & development | 3.7 m | 4.4 m | 8.0 m | 13.7 m | 4.6 m | 5.2 m | 5.2 m | 5.2 m |
| SG&A | 31.3 m | 27.5 m | 26.4 m | 27.3 m | 32.1 m | 32.4 m | 34.6 m | 37.0 m |
| Operating income | 43.1 m | 41.4 m | 48.8 m | 34.6 m | 39.0 m | 38.2 m | 50.9 m | 42.2 m |
| Interest expense | 4.7 m | 4.7 m | 4.7 m | 4.0 m | 3.3 m | 5.4 m | 5.5 m | 5.5 m |
| Pre-tax income | 24.7 m | -38.6 m | 72.6 m | 97.8 m | 195.0 m | 234.6 m | -108.0 m | -97.6 m |
| Income tax | 4.4 m | 8.0 m | 8.9 m | 7.9 m | 30.9 m | 48.0 m | -24.6 m | -23.7 m |
| Net income | 20.3 m | -46.6 m | 63.7 m | 89.9 m | 164.2 m | 186.6 m | -83.4 m | -73.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.19 ≈ | -0.74 | 0.77 | 1.08 | 1.92 ≈ | 2.22 | -1.14 | -1.03 |
| Operating cash flow | 59.2 m | 48.6 m | 44.1 m ≈ | 49.7 m ≈ | 54.5 m | 35.3 m | 52.0 m ≈ | 41.7 m ≈ |
| Capex | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 1.1 m ≈ | 10.0 k | 492.0 k | 429.0 k ≈ | 24.0 k ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 4.5 m | 20.2 m | 31.1 m ≈ | 26.1 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 64 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 3.1, median 7.0, max 145.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 261.0 m | 261.0 m | 336.8 m | 391.9 m | 331.3 m | 310.5 m | 358.7 m | 411.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | +20.2% | +0.0% | +29.0% | +16.4% | −15.4% | −6.3% | +15.5% | +14.7% |
| Net income | 406.3 m | 191.0 m | 293.8 m | 368.8 m | 220.3 m | 179.7 m | 23.4 m | 271.2 m |
| Net income YoY | +202.6% | −53.0% | +53.8% | +25.5% | −40.3% | −18.4% | −87.0% | +1,059.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.53 | 1.43 | 2.02 | 2.87 | 2.37 | 2.20 | 0.36 | 3.30 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +201.7% | −59.5% | +41.3% | +42.1% | −17.4% | −7.2% | −83.6% | +816.7% |
| net % | 155.7% | 73.2% | 87.2% | 94.1% | 66.5% | 57.9% | 6.5% | 65.9% |
| Free cash flow | 223.5 m | 257.4 m | 313.1 m | 363.8 m | 201.7 m | 140.7 m | 188.4 m | 195.8 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 550.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- 257.7 m USD
- Net debt
- -293.2 m USD
- Equity
- 1.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 1.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.22x
- Current ratio
- 14.64x
- ROE
- 29.1%
- ROA
- 18.5%
- FCF margin
- 47.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 336.8 m | 391.9 m | 331.3 m | 310.5 m | 358.7 m | 411.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | 246.0 m | 296.2 m | 307.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 1.8 m | 576.0 k | 41.4 m | 33.9 m | 13.7 m | 30.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 13.9 m | 16.2 m | 63.5 m | 98.2 m | 115.7 m | 113.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 321.1 m | 375.1 m | — | 113.9 m | 166.9 m | 163.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 13.8 m | 13.8 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2022verified |
| EBITDA | 335.0 m ≈ | 388.9 m ≈ | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2022derived |
| Interest expense | 18.3 m | 19.1 m | 15.8 m | 19.2 m | 22.2 m | 16.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 354.2 m | 445.3 m | 286.9 m | 194.1 m | 37.4 m | 326.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 60.4 m | 76.4 m | 66.7 m | 14.4 m | 14.0 m | 55.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 293.8 m | 368.8 m | 220.3 m | 179.7 m | 23.4 m | 271.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.02 | 2.87 | 2.37 | 2.20 | 0.36 | 3.30 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 113.6 m | 94.3 m | 95.2 m | 86.9 m | 74.2 m | 84.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 246.5 m | 201.5 m | 291.0 m | 193.5 m | 305.0 m | 550.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 0 | 55.9 m | 40.7 m | 33.7 m | 39.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 342.1 m | 313.7 m | 443.5 m | 344.2 m | 554.3 m | 727.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 28.0 k | 12.0 k | 170.0 k | 483.0 k | 514.0 k | 1.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 0 | 26.7 m | 17.9 m | 17.9 m | 17.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 0 | 252.9 m | 230.3 m | 208.4 m | 182.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 999.6 m | 926.4 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 66.0 k | 27.0 k | 2.9 m | 6.7 m | 2.1 m | 5.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 0 | 96.2 m | 0 | 192.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 385.5 m | 394.7 m | 444.2 m | 446.2 m | 256.3 m | 257.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 6.1 m | 5.8 m | 135.0 m | 38.1 m | 236.1 m | 49.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 607.8 m | 525.9 m | 565.8 m | 675.0 m | 691.2 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 313.1 m | 363.8 m | 201.7 m | 141.1 m | 188.7 m | 196.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 13.0 k | 0 | 67.0 k | 411.0 k | 270.0 k | 1.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 313.1 m ≈ | 363.8 m ≈ | 201.7 m ≈ | 140.7 m ≈ | 188.4 m ≈ | 195.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -314.9 m | 43.7 m | -56.6 m | -66.8 m | -63.8 m | 40.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -29.8 m | -452.5 m | -55.6 m | -171.8 m | -13.5 m | 8.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2022verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 394.1 m | 8.5 m | 75.7 m | 14.8 m | 4.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 87 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.4 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Returns86
- Growth70
- Balance sheet100
- Valuation94
- Quality89
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 33.50 – 85.74 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)47.30 – 72.77 (Mid 56.95)WACC 8.6% · starting FCFF 199.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E33.50 – 85.74 (Mid 68.93)15 companies used · median multiple 34.9x · quartiles 17.0x – 43.4xABBV, ABT, ALNY, BMY, CRMD, JAZZ, JNJ, LLY, LQDA, PFE, REGN, RPRX, UTHR, VRTX, ZTS
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 87/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 18.3% | 83 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | 44.1% | 97 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 94.3% | 92 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 7.5% | 62 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 11.7% | 78 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 8.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 15.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.7x | 89 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 13.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 6.0% | 86 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth70/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality89/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial86/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation94/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
INNOVIVA, INC. (INVA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 411.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 14.7%; net margin 44.1%; ROE 17.0%.
The estimated value range is 40.40–79.26 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 62.94 USD, the price of 19.24 USD leaves a potential of 227.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 69.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 87/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 18.3%
- Net margin: 44.1%
- FCF conversion: 94.3%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 11.7%
- Interest coverage: 8.6x
- Current ratio: 15.4x
- P/E (TTM): 9.7x
- FCF yield: 13.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly And Company | 1,283.9 bn | 44.3 | 86.1% | 31.9% | +44.7% | +27% / +131% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | 655.6 bn | 41.3 | 20.0% | 16.2% | +6.0% | +32% / +76% |
| ONCBeone Medicines Ltd. | 575.0 bn | 640.9 | 18.4% | 13.9% | +40.2% | +14% / +107% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | 509.5 bn | 49.6 | — | 15.7% | +8.6% | +27% / +102% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | 362.2 bn | 151.2 | 5.1% | 3.6% | +1.3% | +40% / +43% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | 196.7 bn | 42.3 | 9.2% | 9.7% | +5.7% | −12% / +9% |
| PFEPfizer Inc | 170.3 bn | 42.6 | 4.4% | 6.3% | −1.6% | +16% / −2% |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | 137.5 bn | 34.9 | 20.8% | 30.7% | +8.9% | +25% / +53% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | 129.0 bn | 14.0 | 44.1% | 18.5% | −0.2% | +28% / +28% |
| TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited | 48.8 bn | 97.3 | 6.6% | 3.6% | +4.3% | +55% / +325% |
| ZTSZoetis Inc. | 33.4 bn | 13.8 | 57.6% | 26.4% | +2.3% | −36% / −54% |
| ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd. | 26.5 bn | — | -6.2% | -3,535.0% | −71.6% | +76% / +283% |
| RPRXRoyalty Pharma plc | 26.2 bn | 47.7 | 6.9% | 25.7% | +5.1% | +69% / +150% |
| UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporation | 24.1 bn | 21.3 | 19.1% | 38.6% | +10.6% | +16% / +136% |
| INSMInsmed Inc | 23.9 bn | — | -72.5% | -39.9% | +66.7% | −48% / +335% |
| VTRSViatris Inc. | 21.7 bn | — | -24.3% | -23.9% | −3.0% | +77% / +107% |
| ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 21.0 bn | 7.9 | 126.6% | 52.8% | +65.2% | −65% / −7% |
| JAZZJazz Pharmaceuticals plc | 14.6 bn | 74.1 | 5.1% | 4.4% | +4.9% | +29% / +92% |
| TVTXTravere Therapeutics, Inc. | 4.7 bn | — | -252.7% | -18.7% | +110.5% | +38% / +678% |
| LQDALiquidia Corporation | 4.0 bn | 32.1 | 131.8% | 30.7% | +1,031.2% | +36% / +521% |
| ABCLAbCellera Biologics Inc. | 3.4 bn | — | -17.3% | -248.8% | +160.6% | +198% / +136% |
| BHCBausch Health Companies Inc. | 3.0 bn | — | — | -7.6% | +6.7% | +25% / +11% |
| PRGOPerrigo Company plc | 2.2 bn | — | -51.4% | -43.3% | −2.8% | +18% / −48% |
| SRPTSarepta Therapeutics, Inc. | 1.9 bn | — | -7.6% | -5.9% | +15.6% | −18% / −78% |
| INVAInnoviva, Inc. | 1.4 bn | 9.7 | 17.0% | 44.1% | +14.7% | +6% / +41% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for INVA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 16.14 Total return -16% · Per year -16% | 28.50 Total return 48% · Per year 48% | 42.88 Total return 123% · Per year 123% |
| 3 years | 16.62 Total return -14% · Per year -5% | 32.92 Total return 71% · Per year 20% | 54.24 Total return 182% · Per year 41% |
| 5 years | 17.11 Total return -11% · Per year -2% | 38.03 Total return 98% · Per year 15% | 68.62 Total return 257% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 8.23
- Net margin± 5.76
- Annual revenue growth± 4.60
- Annual dilution± 0.48
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Innoviva combines a royalty portfolio from respiratory products partnered with GSK and a critical care and infectious disease platform, Innoviva Specialty Therapeutics (IST). As product sales grow, total revenue reached $411.3 million in fiscal 2025 1, and the company reported 46% growth in net product sales in the second quarter of 2026 23.
SWOT
Strengths
- The royalty portfolio generates stable and predictable revenue from products partnered with GSK, and the company has solid liquidity resources for investments and share repurchases.
- The IST platform has five approved or marketed products and fast-growing sales, which reduces dependence on a single product.
- The company holds valuable strategic stakes, including in Armata, which can generate gains from the revaluation of investments.
Weaknesses
- Most royalty revenue depends on GSK, and the company has limited control over the partner's sales efforts.
- Net income is strongly influenced by changes in the fair value of investments, which makes quarterly profit volatile.
- IST sales are concentrated in a few products, and commercial costs rise as activity expands.
Opportunities
- Growth in XACDURO® and ZEVTERA® sales in the U.S. and the NUZOLVENCE® launch could expand the product revenue base.
- Regional partnerships, such as the one with Dr. Reddy's for emerging markets, could bring licensing revenue without large commercial costs.
- The LYNX platform from Nortiva Bio could enable less frequent oral versions of existing medicines.
Threats
- Generic entry for partnered respiratory products could significantly reduce royalties from GSK.
- Government price negotiation and PBM pressure may reduce realized prices for both partnered and proprietary products.
- A decline in the Armata share price could reduce the value of strategic stakes and reported net income.
Risks
- Dependence on GSKhigh
Royalties from RELVAR®/BREO® ELLIPTA® and ANORO® ELLIPTA® make up most of the predictable revenue, and the company does not control GSK's commercial efforts 1.
- Generic competitionhigh
If approved generics reach the market, royalties received could be lower than management expects 1.
- Pricing pressuremedium
Lower prices and reimbursement rates, along with IRA negotiation, could affect revenue from partnered products 1.
- Volatility of strategic investmentsmedium
Changes in the value of holdings, especially in Armata, produced a net loss in the second quarter of 2026 23.
- Debt and liquiditylow
Convertible notes rank ahead of common stockholders, and payments on them could limit distributions or investments 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If IST sales keep growing in the U.S. and the NUZOLVENCE® launch succeeds, product revenue could become as important a growth source as royalties.
- Cash flow from royalties, together with a solid liquidity position, could support share repurchases and strategic investments.
- If Nortiva Bio demonstrates its LYNX platform through external partnerships, the company could diversify its drug development income sources.
What would break the thesis
- If generics reduce GSK product sales, royalties could fall faster than growth in proprietary products can offset.
- Net income could remain volatile, since changes in the value of strategic investments dominate the result in many quarters.
- If IRA price negotiation and PBM pressure intensify, realized prices could stay below expectations.
What to watch
- U.S. IST net product sales against the target of at least $150 million2026
- NUZOLVENCE launch and choice between partnered or independent commercializationsecond half of 2026
- GSK royalty levels and any effect of Advair generics on RELVAR/BREO ELLIPTAnext 10-K
- Value of the Armata stake and its effect on reported net incomeQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
Innoviva, Inc. is a diversified biopharmaceutical company based in Burlingame, California, operating in three areas: a royalty portfolio, the IST platform and strategic healthcare assets 1. Royalties come from RELVAR®/BREO® ELLIPTA® and ANORO® ELLIPTA®, partnered with GSK, and gross royalty revenue was $250.3 million in fiscal 2025 1. The IST platform includes five approved or marketed products, among them GIAPREZA®, XACDURO®, XERAVA®, ZEVTERA® and NUZOLVENCE®, approved by the FDA in December 2025 1.
Segments
GSK royalties
The royalty segment relates to respiratory products partnered with GSK. For RELVAR®/BREO® ELLIPTA® the company receives 15% of the first $3.0 billion of annual global net sales and 5% above that threshold, while ANORO® ELLIPTA® royalties tier upward from 6.5% to 10% 1. Gross royalty revenue was $59.8 million in the second quarter of 2026, roughly stable versus the prior quarter 3.
Innoviva Specialty Therapeutics (IST)
IST is the critical care and infectious disease platform with a hospital focus. Net product sales reached $172.1 million in fiscal 2025, up 77% 1, and were $51.8 million in the second quarter of 2026 3. Management said the company remains on track to achieve at least $150 million in IST U.S. net product sales in 2026 3.
Market context
Innoviva operates in respiratory bronchodilator therapy for asthma and COPD, a market led by products from large companies such as GSK, AstraZeneca and Boehringer Ingelheim 1. In critical care and hospital infections, companies target effective antibiotics against multidrug-resistant bacteria such as Acinetobacter, which is considered a global threat in hospitals 1. IST growth can develop in this niche, but pricing pressure and U.S. regulation quickly affect revenue.
Trends
- Generics for respiratory productsheadwind
Generic versions of Advair and ICS/LABA products could reduce the royalties received from GSK if they compete with RELVAR®/BREO® ELLIPTA® or ANORO® ELLIPTA® 1.
- Price negotiation under the Inflation Reduction Actheadwind
RELVAR®/BREO® ELLIPTA® was selected for price negotiation by CMS, with the negotiated maximum fair price scheduled to take effect from January 1, 2027, and ANORO® ELLIPTA® is included in a later cycle 1. This could lead to lower realized prices in the Medicare channel.
- Growth of the hospital antibiotic markettailwind
IDSA treatment guidance for carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii infections named XACDURO® the preferred agent in combination with a carbapenem 1. If this positioning strengthens, it could support U.S. sales growth.
- NUZOLVENCE launch and regional partnershipsmixed
The company plans to commercialize NUZOLVENCE® in the second half of 2026, either with a partner or independently 1, and the XACDURO® license for South and Central America, the Caribbean and other countries extends access to emerging markets 3. These could contribute to growth but depend on execution.
Competitive position
In royalties, RELVAR®/BREO® ELLIPTA® and ANORO® ELLIPTA® compete with a large number of approved bronchodilators, including Advair/Seretide (GSK), Symbicort (AstraZeneca), Spiriva (Boehringer Ingelheim) and Breztri Aerosphere (AstraZeneca) 1. In antibiotics and critical care, competition comes from other broad-spectrum antibiotics and established hospital products 1.
- GlaxoSmithKline
Partner that commercializes RELVAR®/BREO® ELLIPTA® and ANORO® ELLIPTA® and also makes Advair, a direct competitor to the royalty products.
- AstraZeneca
Markets Symbicort, Breztri Aerosphere and Bevespi Aerosphere, products that compete with the respiratory royalty portfolio.
- Boehringer Ingelheim
Markets Spiriva and Stiolto, competitors in COPD treatment in the same therapeutic market.
- Basilea Pharmaceutica
Licensor of ZEVTERA® for U.S. commercialization, so more a partner than a competitor, but also an actor in the antibiotic market.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Proxy statement24 Mar 2026
- Current report25 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Innoviva, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Innoviva, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Innoviva, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.