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olivLaw · US equity research

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc JAZZ

Pharmaceutical Preparations · SIC 2834 · Vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)

227.32USD−3.13% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc is a global biopharmaceutical company developing and selling medicines for rare diseases across sleep disorders, epilepsy and oncology. Its oxybate franchise remains central, with Xywav accounting for 41% of total net product sales in 2025, while Epidiolex contributed 26%.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) stock was 227.32 USD (−3.13% on the day), with market capitalisation 14.6 bn USD, P/E 74.1 on diluted EPS of 3.07 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.75, 52-week range 131.16–261.62 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.2 bn USD (+10.4% YoY), net income of -483.4 m USD (−292.3% YoY), diluted EPS -7.48 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
14.6 bn USD
shares as of 26 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
74.1
Diluted EPS TTM 3.07 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
1.35%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.75
Volatility (1y) 37%
52-week range
131.16261.62

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
55.4
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
199.02 – 229.99
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.91 · band width 14.4%
SMA 50 / 200
229.71 / 217.77
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.38 / -4.81
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−1.8%−5.9%+4.2 pp—
3 months−11.4%−4.6%−6.8 pp—
6 months+0.2%+0.2%−0.1 pp—
Year to date+33.7%+7.4%+26.3 pp—
1 year+65.7%+8.2%+57.5 pp+15.7%
3 years+71.2%+68.4%+2.8 pp+12.0%
5 years+68.3%+56.5%+11.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−21.6%
04 Aug 2026 → 28 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−42.0%
07 Apr 2022 → 09 May 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+11.0%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.2 bn USD
+10.4% YoY
Net income
-483.4 m USD
−292.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
-7.48
−283.3% YoY
net / operating
-38.9% / -33.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue1.1 bn897.8 m1.0 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn
SG&A369.3 m514.0 m358.4 m530.6 m406.3 m352.7 m389.2 m407.9 m
Operating income190.8 m-55.9 m-686.4 m57.5 m254.6 m336.6 m248.2 m-413.4 m
Pre-tax income133.2 m-109.8 m-735.6 m9.0 m208.5 m299.2 m211.0 m-458.9 m
Income tax-57.9 m-17.8 m-17.2 m-242.4 m5.0 m6.1 m18.1 m24.5 m
Net income191.1 m-92.5 m-718.5 m251.4 m203.5 m293.1 m192.8 m-483.4 m
Diluted EPS3.11 ≈-1.52-11.744.083.34 ≈4.432.78-7.48
Operating cash flow398.6 m429.8 m88.8 m ≈474.7 m ≈362.5 m408.2 m415.7 m ≈506.1 m ≈
Capex13.3 m13.9 m12.9 m ≈15.2 m ≈16.8 m19.7 m18.1 m ≈16.2 m ≈
Share repurchases0——0 ≈23.0 k——225.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 86 percentile of its own 29-quarter history (min 12.3, median 20.3, max 1,728.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.9 bn2.2 bn2.4 bn3.1 bn3.7 bn3.8 bn4.1 bn4.3 bn
Revenue YoY+16.8%+14.3%+9.3%+30.9%+18.3%+4.8%+6.1%+4.9%
Net income447.1 m523.4 m238.6 m-329.7 m-224.1 m414.8 m560.1 m-356.1 m
Net income YoY−8.4%+17.1%−54.4%−238.2%unavailableunavailable+35.0%−163.6%
Diluted EPS7.309.094.22-5.52-3.586.108.65-5.84
Diluted EPS YoY−8.3%+24.5%−53.6%−230.8%unavailableunavailable+41.8%−167.5%
net %23.6%24.2%10.1%-10.7%-6.1%10.8%13.8%-8.3%
Free cash flow778.5 m736.3 m884.6 m750.9 m1.2 bn1.1 bn1.4 bn1.3 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
1.4 bn USD
Financial debt
5.4 bn USD
Net debt
4.0 bn USD
Equity
4.3 bn USD
Total assets
11.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.24x
Current ratio
1.86x
ROE
-8.5%
ROA
-3.0%
FCF margin
30.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
3.8 bn
2024
4.1 bn
2025
4.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
578.6 m
2024
716.6 m
2025
-430.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
30.4 m
2024
32.8 m
2025
41.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
609.0 m ≈
2024
749.4 m ≈
2025
-388.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
32.8 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2024verified

Pre-tax income
2023
297.9 m
2024
470.4 m
2025
-627.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-119.9 m
2024
-91.4 m
2025
-272.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
414.8 m
2024
560.1 m
2025
-356.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
6.10
2024
8.65
2025
-5.84

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
72.1 m
2024
66.0 m
2025
61.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.5 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Receivables
2023
705.8 m
2024
716.8 m
2025
830.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Inventories
2023
597.0 m
2024
480.4 m
2025
417.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Current assets
2023
3.4 bn
2024
4.6 bn
2025
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2021verified

Goodwill
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
5.4 bn
2024
4.8 bn
2025
4.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Total assets
2023
11.4 bn
2024
12.0 bn
2025
11.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
102.8 m
2024
77.9 m
2025
122.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
605.0 m
2024
31.0 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
5.1 bn
2024
6.1 bn
2025
4.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.0 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Equity
2023
3.7 bn †
2024
4.1 bn †
2025
4.3 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
24.0 m
2024
38.1 m
2025
58.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
1.1 bn ≈
2024
1.4 bn ≈
2025
1.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-163.1 m
2024
-508.2 m
2025
-1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-305.3 m
2024
20.5 m
2025
-873.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
269.8 m
2024
311.4 m
2025
125.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
4.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
5.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
12.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-160.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-163.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-167.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-4.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
9.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
9.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
34.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
5.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
3.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
7.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
70.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
787.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
362.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
63 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
14.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
18.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
70.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
74.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
1.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
3.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
3.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
38.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
42.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
3.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
9.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
11.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 40 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

227.32 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 14.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
14.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
74.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
3.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
38.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
5.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
4.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 26 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 02 Nov 2026
verified 2368derived 161

Score by group

  • Quality49
  • Growth44
  • Balance sheet24
  • Returns22
  • Valuation43

Estimated value range

Low
33.95
USD per share
Mid
63.77
USD per share
High
119.91
USD per share
Price: 227.32 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -71.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -256.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: same comparison basis (not independent confirmations) · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 28.23 – 129.95 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA28.23 – 109.87 (Mid 64.18)
    4 companies used · median multiple 16.4x · quartiles 11.4x – 22.6x
    INDV, TEVA, VRTX, VTRS
  • Peers: P/E39.66 – 129.95 (Mid 63.37)
    16 companies used · median multiple 20.6x · quartiles 12.9x – 42.3x
    ABBV, ABT, ACAD, ALNY, BMY, INDV, JNJ, LLY, PFE, RDY, REGN, RLYB, RPRX, UTHR, VRTX, ZTS
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 40/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality4.3%20 (vs peers)13%
Net margin · Quality4.4%45 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Quality787.4%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth5.3%44 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet7.6x0 (vs peers)13%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.8x85 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation74.1x20 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation38.8x20 (vs peers)13%
FCF yield · Valuation11.1%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.5%22 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet24/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial44/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality49/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial22/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation43/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.9%; net margin 4.4%; ROE 5.1%; net debt/EBITDA 7.6x.

The estimated value range is 33.95–119.91 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 63.77 USD, the price of 227.32 USD leaves a potential of -71.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -256.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 40/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 787.4%
  • Current ratio: 1.8x
  • FCF yield: 11.1%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 4.3%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 7.6x
  • P/E (TTM): 74.1x
  • EV/EBITDA: 38.8x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.5%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
74.1x
vertical median 38.1x
above median (+94.4%)
EV/EBITDA
38.8x
vertical median 20.1x
above median (+92.6%)
P/S
3.1x
vertical median 6.6x
below median (−53.1%)
P/B
3.5x
vertical median 4.7x
below median (−25.3%)
ROE
5.1%
vertical median -6.2%
above median
Net margin
4.4%
vertical median 6.3%
below median (−31.1%)
EBIT margin
9.0%
vertical median 3.2%
above median (+185.7%)
Revenue YoY
4.9%
vertical median 6.0%
below median (−19.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
7.6x
vertical median -0.1x
above median
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.3%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LLYEli Lilly And Company1,283.9 bn44.386.1%31.9%+44.7%+27% / +131%
JNJJohnson & Johnson655.6 bn41.320.0%16.2%+6.0%+32% / +76%
ONCBeone Medicines Ltd.572.4 bn891.714.7%10.7%+40.2%+14% / +107%
ABBVAbbVie Inc.509.5 bn49.6—15.7%+8.6%+27% / +102%
MRKMerck & Co., Inc.362.2 bn151.25.1%3.6%+1.3%+40% / +43%
ABTAbbott Laboratories196.7 bn42.39.2%9.7%+5.7%−12% / +9%
PFEPfizer Inc170.3 bn42.64.4%6.3%−1.6%+16% / −2%
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc137.5 bn34.920.8%30.7%+8.9%+25% / +53%
BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company129.0 bn14.044.1%18.5%−0.2%+28% / +28%
TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited48.8 bn97.36.6%3.6%+4.3%+55% / +325%
ZTSZoetis Inc.33.4 bn13.857.6%26.4%+2.3%−36% / −54%
ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd.26.5 bn—-6.2%-3,535.0%−71.6%+76% / +283%
RPRXRoyalty Pharma plc26.2 bn47.76.9%25.7%+5.1%+69% / +150%
UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporation24.1 bn21.319.1%38.6%+10.6%+16% / +136%
INSMInsmed Inc23.9 bn—-72.5%-39.9%+66.7%−48% / +335%
VTRSViatris Inc.21.8 bn—-23.6%-23.9%−3.0%+77% / +107%
ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.21.0 bn7.9126.6%52.8%+65.2%−65% / −7%
JAZZJazz Pharmaceuticals plc14.6 bn74.15.1%4.4%+4.9%+66% / +71%
RDYDr. Reddy’s Laboratories Limited12.1 bn18.417.0%17.4%+13.8%+3% / +4%
PRAXPraxis Precision Medicines, Inc.7.3 bn—-38.9%—−100.0%+34% / +1,343%
INDVIndivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.4.3 bn10.2—32.8%+4.3%+8% / +114%
ACADAcadia Pharmaceuticals Inc.3.7 bn10.131.4%30.1%+11.9%−15% / −5%
ARQTArcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.3.4 bn125.214.9%5.9%+91.3%−12% / +1,367%
CYRXCryoport, Inc.813.7 m—-8.3%-21.5%+12.4%+67% / +14%
AVTXAvalo Therapeutics, Inc.383.4 m—-33.6%-150,259.3%−86.6%−65% / −61%

1- and 3-year price returns: for JAZZ from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
141.53
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
250.12
Total return 10% · Per year 10%
376.63
Total return 66% · Per year 66%
3 years
139.46
Total return -39% · Per year -15%
277.12
Total return 22% · Per year 7%
457.86
Total return 101% · Per year 26%
5 years
137.42
Total return -40% · Per year -10%
307.03
Total return 35% · Per year 6%
556.63
Total return 145% · Per year 20%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 69.28
  • Net margin± 48.50
  • Annual revenue growth± 39.52
  • Annual dilution± 4.07

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 03 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026), 8-K (26 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc is a global biopharmaceutical company developing and selling medicines for rare diseases across sleep disorders, epilepsy and oncology. Its oxybate franchise remains central, with Xywav accounting for 41% of total net product sales in 2025 1, while Epidiolex contributed 26% 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Jazz holds a leading position in oxybate therapy for rare sleep disorders, with Xywav recognized as a standard of care 1. A diversified portfolio across sleep, epilepsy and oncology reduces reliance on a single product 1. The company runs a scalable operating model with integrated global capabilities 1.
  • Xywav coverage includes all three major U.S. PBMs, with benefit coverage for a large share of commercial lives 1. This supports patient access and revenue stability 1.
  • The company has secured accelerated and conditional approvals for newer oncology products, showing an ability to bring medicines to market 12.

Weaknesses

  • Revenue remains concentrated in the oxybate franchise, and a substantial decline there would materially affect financial results 1.
  • Xyrem is losing ground to generic and authorized generic entrants, a decline that may be hard to offset quickly 1.
  • Oncology products are still small in sales terms, so their contribution to revenue is limited in 2025 1.

Opportunities

  • If Xywav gains further patients with idiopathic hypersomnia, expanding that indication could support sales growth 1.
  • Approvals in the EU, Canada and the U.K. for Ziihera and other products open new markets 12.
  • Acquisitions of new products could complement the existing portfolio and reduce dependence on oxybates 1.

Threats

  • Introduction of generics and alternative products can reduce prices and market share in oxybates 1.
  • A stronger competitor following Alkermes' acquisition of Avadel could intensify competitive pressure on Xywav 1.
  • Patent applications and litigation over intellectual property could affect product exclusivity 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on oxybateshigh

    If oxybate revenue declines significantly, the company could be forced to reduce operating expenses or seek additional funds 1.

  • Generic and authorized generic competitionhigh

    Generic and authorized generic versions of high-sodium oxybates have already entered the market and may continue to erode Xyrem and Xywav sales 1.

  • Patent litigationmedium

    Patent lawsuits concerning Xyrem and Xywav are ongoing, and their outcome could affect product exclusivity 1.

  • REMS regulatory requirementsmedium

    The REMS program imposes strict controls on oxybate distribution, and non-compliance could lead to FDA enforcement and added costs 1.

  • Pricing pressuremedium

    Third-party payors may require larger rebates or impose coverage restrictions, which could reduce net revenue 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If Xywav keeps its leading position in narcolepsy and grows in idiopathic hypersomnia, the oxybate franchise could remain a solid revenue base 1.
  • Diversification into epilepsy and oncology could reduce reliance on oxybates, especially if newer products reach higher sales 1.
  • Recent approvals in several jurisdictions could widen the accessible market for oncology products 12.

What would break the thesis

  • If generic and authorized generic entrants keep arriving, Xyrem and Xywav sales could fall faster than anticipated 1.
  • Combined competition from a close alternative such as Lumryz could reduce Xywav's share in narcolepsy 1.
  • Newer oncology products could take longer to become meaningful contributors to revenue 1.

What to watch

  • Sales trajectory of Xywav and the number of patients with IHQ1 2027
  • Impact of generic and authorized generic entry on Xyrem and Xywav sales2027
  • Outcome of patent litigation concerning Xywavnext 10-K
  • Progress of Ziihera and Modeyso in new markets and confirmatory trials2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 03 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026), 8-K (26 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

Jazz Pharmaceuticals states its purpose as innovating to transform the lives of patients and their families, focusing on medicines for rare diseases that often have limited or no therapeutic options 1. Its portfolio covers epilepsies, cancers and sleep disorders, with products approved in multiple countries 1. The company runs an efficient, scalable commercial model and pursues indication expansion and entry into new markets 1.

Segments

Rare sleep disorders

Jazz is the leader in developing and commercializing oxybate therapy for rare sleep disorders. Xywav contains 92% less sodium than Xyrem and generated $1,657.0 million of net product sales in 2025 1. Xyrem contributed $146.0 million in the same year 1.

Rare epilepsies

Epidiolex, acquired in 2021 as part of the GW Acquisition, treats seizures associated with rare forms of epilepsy such as LGS, DS and TSC 1. It is launched and reimbursed in more than 40 countries 1. Its 2025 net product sales were $1,059.2 million 1.

Rare oncology

The oncology business includes Ziihera, Modeyso, Zepzelca and Rylaze/Enrylaze 1. Ziihera and Modeyso are still early commercially, with 2025 net product sales of $24.8 million and $48.0 million respectively 1. Modeyso was added through the Chimerix Acquisition completed in April 2025 1.

Market context

Jazz targets rare diseases with small patient populations and high unmet needs, where call points are concentrated and efficient 1. Narcolepsy affects about one in 2,000 people in the U.S., and an estimated 37,000 people in the U.S. have been diagnosed with IH 1. In the oxybate market, generic and authorized generic competition has pushed down net prices 1.

Trends

  • Generic competition in oxybatesheadwind

    Authorized generic and generic versions of high-sodium oxybate have entered the Xyrem market, which could reduce oxybate franchise revenue if the trend continues 1. The company says this has already had a negative impact on sales 1.

  • Low-sodium advantage of Xywavtailwind

    Its reduced sodium content and the absence of a high-sodium warning support Xywav as a preferred treatment option, and FDA has recognized its orphan drug exclusivity in narcolepsy and IH 1.

  • Expansion in rare oncologytailwind

    Recent approvals for Ziihera and Modeyso, including in the EU and Canada, open new markets for the company's oncology products 12.

  • Payer pricing and reimbursement pressuremixed

    Pressure from third-party payors and rebate requirements for market access could limit net revenue, especially if competing products gain broader coverage 1.

Competitive position

In sleep disorders, competition comes from generic and authorized generic high-sodium oxybates and from Lumryz, a product of Alkermes following its acquisition of Avadel 1. Other products for excessive daytime sleepiness, such as Wakix and Sunosi, also compete, and several developers are working on orexin 2 receptor agonists 1. In epilepsy and oncology, competitive dynamics depend on indications and specific approvals 1.

  • AlkermesALKS

    Its Lumryz, a high-sodium oxybate, competes directly with Xywav and Xyrem in narcolepsy; the company acquired Avadel in February 2026 1.

  • Axsome TherapeuticsAXSM

    Acquired Wakix and Sunosi from Jazz in 2022, which treat excessive daytime sleepiness in narcolepsy 1.

  • Harmony BiosciencesHRMY

    Pitolisant is a treatment competing in narcolepsy, and the company announced a phase 3 study for idiopathic hypersomnia 1.

  • Hikma Pharmaceuticals

    Launched an authorized generic of high-sodium oxybate and holds the right to launch its own generic product, intensifying competition 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 29 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report02 Nov 2026
  • Current report02 Nov 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report26 Oct 2026
    Results of operations
  • Current report09 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers
  • Current report23 Sept 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report15 Sept 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure
  • Current report31 Aug 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Item 3.02 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report25 Aug 2026
    Other events
  • Current report10 Aug 2026
    Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report10 Aug 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc · 24 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc · 03 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.