olivLaw · US equity research
Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. ACAD
Pharmaceutical Preparations · SIC 2834 · Vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)
Acadia Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company that markets NUPLAZID for hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis and DAYBUE for Rett syndrome, both the first and only drugs approved for these conditions. Product sales reached 576.0 million USD in the first half of 2026, and investors now watch the Phase 2 readout of remlifanserin in Alzheimer's disease psychosis.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) stock was 21.24 USD (−1.07% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.7 bn USD, P/E 10.1 on diluted EPS of 2.10 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.86, 52-week range 18.62–30.57 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 342.3 m USD (+22.8% YoY), net income of 53.5 m USD (−25.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.31 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 52.1
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 18.71 – 21.45
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.92 · band width 13.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 23.03 / 23.57
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.37 / -0.76
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +7.6% | −5.9% | +13.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −25.3% | −4.6% | −20.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −5.9% | +0.2% | −6.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −20.5% | +7.4% | −27.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −4.9% | +8.2% | −13.1 pp | +13.7% |
| 3 years | −11.4% | +68.4% | −79.9 pp | +15.7% |
| 5 years | +6.1% | +56.5% | −50.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 259.6 m | 244.3 m | 264.6 m | 278.6 m | 284.0 m | 268.1 m | 308.0 m | 342.3 m |
| Cost of revenue | 21.8 m | 20.4 m | 20.7 m | 21.6 m | 26.2 m | 24.8 m | 28.3 m | 35.1 m |
| Research & development | 100.7 m | 78.3 m | 78.0 m | 87.8 m | 84.8 m | 76.9 m | 81.6 m | 76.3 m |
| SG&A | 130.1 m | 126.4 m | 133.5 m | 133.4 m | 155.6 m | 171.0 m | 160.3 m | 159.2 m |
| Operating income | 153.5 m | 19.3 m | 32.4 m | 35.8 m | 17.4 m | -4.6 m | 37.8 m | 71.7 m |
| Pre-tax income | 161.1 m | 27.8 m | 40.2 m | 44.6 m | 26.3 m | 4.0 m | 46.5 m | 80.4 m |
| Income tax | 17.3 m | 8.8 m | 13.5 m | -27.2 m | -247.2 m | 344.0 k | 15.0 m | 26.9 m |
| Net income | 143.7 m | 19.0 m | 26.7 m | 71.8 m | 273.6 m | 3.6 m | 31.5 m | 53.5 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.86 ≈ | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.42 | 1.59 ≈ | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| Operating cash flow | 40.4 m | 20.3 m | 64.0 m ≈ | 74.3 m ≈ | -48.7 m | 34.0 m | 100.8 m ≈ | 11.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 453.0 k | 0 | 297.0 k ≈ | 388.0 k ≈ | 4.0 m | 5.2 m | 5.1 m ≈ | 1.2 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 10 percentile of its own 10-quarter history (min 9.6, median 12.8, max 90.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 223.8 m | 339.1 m | 441.8 m | 484.1 m | 517.2 m | 726.4 m | 957.8 m | 1.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +79.2% | +51.5% | +30.3% | +9.6% | +6.8% | +40.4% | +31.8% | +11.9% |
| Net income | -245.2 m | -235.3 m | -281.6 m | -167.9 m | -216.0 m | -61.3 m | 226.5 m | 391.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +72.7% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | -1.79 | -1.05 | -1.34 | -0.37 | 1.36 | 2.30 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +69.1% |
| net % | -109.6% | -69.4% | -63.7% | -34.7% | -41.8% | -8.4% | 23.6% | 36.5% |
| Free cash flow | -169.6 m | -152.3 m | -143.8 m | -126.8 m | -114.0 m | 16.7 m | 157.2 m | 105.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 177.7 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 1.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 1.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.83x
- ROE
- 39.9%
- ROA
- 28.4%
- FCF margin
- 9.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 441.8 m | 484.1 m | 517.2 m | 726.4 m | 957.8 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 10.2 m | 19.1 m | 10.2 m | 41.6 m | 81.8 m | 89.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 431.5 m | 473.3 m | 507.1 m | 684.8 m | 876.0 m ≈ | 982.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 319.1 m | 239.4 m | 361.6 m | 351.6 m | 303.2 m | 328.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 388.7 m | 396.0 m | 369.1 m | 406.6 m | 488.4 m | 548.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -286.6 m | -170.4 m | -223.6 m | -73.4 m | 230.8 m | 104.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -281.0 m | -167.5 m | -213.4 m | -51.0 m | 258.1 m | 138.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 611.0 k | 351.0 k | 2.5 m | 10.3 m | 31.6 m | -252.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -281.6 m | -167.9 m | -216.0 m | -61.3 m | 226.5 m | 391.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.79 | -1.05 | -1.34 | -0.37 | 1.36 | 2.30 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 157.3 k | 160.5 k | 161.7 m | 163.8 m | 166.4 m | 169.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 326.0 m | 147.4 m | 114.8 m | 188.7 m | 319.6 m | 177.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 48.2 m | 64.4 m | 62.2 m | 98.3 m | 98.7 m | 121.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 9.7 m | 14.1 m | 11.6 m | 40.4 m | 91.7 m | 111.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 717.6 m | 617.8 m | 507.9 m | 616.1 m | 938.3 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 9.2 m | 8.0 m | 6.0 m | 4.6 m | 4.2 m | 7.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.1 m | 0 | 0 | 65.5 m | 119.8 m | 108.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 782.6 m | 700.1 m | 587.8 m | 749.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 8.5 m | 6.9 m | 12.7 m | 17.5 m | 16.2 m | 10.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 106.0 m | 96.1 m | 125.6 m | 254.3 m | 394.9 m | 277.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 155.6 m | 159.2 m | 187.4 m | 317.2 m | 455.0 m | 336.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 627.0 m † | 540.9 m † | 400.4 m † | 431.8 m † | 732.8 m † | 1.2 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -136.2 m | -125.7 m | -114.0 m | 16.7 m | 157.7 m | 109.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 7.6 m | 1.1 m | 0 | 50.0 k | 523.0 k | 4.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -143.8 m ≈ | -126.8 m ≈ | -114.0 m ≈ | 16.7 m ≈ | 157.2 m ≈ | 105.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 192.5 m | -71.1 m | 73.2 m | 32.0 m | -30.5 m | -302.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 81.0 m | 18.2 m | 8.2 m | 25.1 m | 6.8 m | 49.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 29.20 – 89.02 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E29.20 – 89.02 (Mid 44.80)15 companies used · median multiple 21.3x · quartiles 13.9x – 42.4xABBV, ABT, ALNY, BMY, IRWD, JNJ, LLY, OGN, OMER, PFE, REGN, RPRX, UTHR, VRTX, ZTS
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 30.1% | 81 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 22.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 27.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.1x | 83 (vs peers) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.2% | 28 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation59/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC. (ACAD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 11.9%; net margin 30.1%; ROE 31.4%.
The estimated value range is 29.20–89.02 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 44.80 USD, the price of 21.24 USD leaves a potential of 110.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 52.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 30.1%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 27.5%
- Current ratio: 3.8x
- P/E (TTM): 10.1x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 22.6%
- FCF yield: 2.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly And Company | 1,283.9 bn | 44.3 | 86.1% | 31.9% | +44.7% | +27% / +131% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | 655.6 bn | 41.3 | 20.0% | 16.2% | +6.0% | +32% / +76% |
| ONCBeone Medicines Ltd. | 575.0 bn | 640.9 | 18.4% | 13.9% | +40.2% | +14% / +107% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | 509.5 bn | 49.6 | — | 15.7% | +8.6% | +27% / +102% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | 362.2 bn | 151.2 | 5.1% | 3.6% | +1.3% | +40% / +43% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | 196.7 bn | 42.3 | 9.2% | 9.7% | +5.7% | −12% / +9% |
| PFEPfizer Inc | 170.3 bn | 42.6 | 4.4% | 6.3% | −1.6% | +16% / −2% |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | 137.5 bn | 34.9 | 20.8% | 30.7% | +8.9% | +25% / +53% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | 129.0 bn | 14.0 | 44.1% | 18.5% | −0.2% | +28% / +28% |
| TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited | 48.8 bn | 97.3 | 6.6% | 3.6% | +4.3% | +55% / +325% |
| ZTSZoetis Inc. | 33.4 bn | 13.8 | 57.6% | 26.4% | +2.3% | −36% / −54% |
| ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd. | 26.5 bn | — | -6.2% | -3,535.0% | −71.6% | +76% / +283% |
| RPRXRoyalty Pharma plc | 26.2 bn | 47.7 | 6.9% | 25.7% | +5.1% | +69% / +150% |
| UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporation | 24.1 bn | 21.3 | 19.1% | 38.6% | +10.6% | +16% / +136% |
| INSMInsmed Inc | 23.9 bn | — | -72.5% | -39.9% | +66.7% | −48% / +335% |
| VTRSViatris Inc. | 21.7 bn | — | -24.3% | -23.9% | −3.0% | +77% / +107% |
| ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 21.0 bn | 7.9 | 126.6% | 52.8% | +65.2% | −65% / −7% |
| BBIOBridgeBio Pharma, Inc. | 14.5 bn | — | — | -61.3% | +126.3% | +3% / +159% |
| MDGLMadrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 9.3 bn | — | -24.8% | -10.9% | +432.1% | −33% / +97% |
| ACADAcadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 3.7 bn | 10.1 | 31.4% | 30.1% | +11.9% | −5% / −11% |
| OGNOrganon & Co. | 3.6 bn | 18.0 | 20.3% | 3.5% | −2.9% | +79% / +22% |
| ZLABZai Lab Limited | 2.0 bn | — | -30.0% | -44.9% | +15.3% | +11% / −17% |
| SLSSELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc. | 1.6 bn | — | -39.6% | — | −100.0% | +386% / +658% |
| OMEROmeros Corp | 1.2 bn | 9.9 | — | — | −34.0% | +76% / +679% |
| IRWDIronwood Pharmaceuticals Inc | 667.2 m | 4.5 | — | 37.4% | −15.7% | +15% / −59% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ACAD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 13.86 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 24.39 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 36.59 Total return 72% · Per year 72% |
| 3 years | 16.44 Total return -23% · Per year -8% | 32.26 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 52.69 Total return 148% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 19.50 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 42.66 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 75.87 Total return 257% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 8.06
- Net margin± 5.65
- Annual revenue growth± 4.21
- Annual dilution± 0.47
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (05 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Acadia Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company that markets NUPLAZID for hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis and DAYBUE for Rett syndrome, both the first and only drugs approved for these conditions. Product sales reached 576.0 million USD in the first half of 2026, and investors now watch the Phase 2 readout of remlifanserin in Alzheimer's disease psychosis. 1 2 3
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has two approved products for which no other FDA-approved treatments exist. Revenue grew in 2026 and guidance was raised.
- Being the first and only approved therapy offers commercial protection and an advantage in building adoption.
- The pipeline includes late-stage candidates, notably remlifanserin, supported by the Fast Track designation granted by the FDA.
Weaknesses
- The company has long-running operating losses linked to heavy research and development spending.
- Sales depend heavily on two products, so any safety or reimbursement problem would have a major impact.
Opportunities
- A favorable RADIANT readout could open a large market in Alzheimer's disease psychosis.
- EU approval and expansion into Japan could enlarge the patient base for DAYBUE.
- A larger sales force and direct-to-consumer campaigns could accelerate NUPLAZID adoption.
Threats
- Payor pressure and government price negotiation could reduce revenue per unit.
- The boxed warning on NUPLAZID and public attention to patient deaths could discourage prescribing.
- Clinical failures or approval delays could limit the value of the pipeline.
Risks
- Dependence on two productshigh
Revenue depends almost entirely on NUPLAZID and DAYBUE, so a slowdown in adoption would affect financial results.
- NUPLAZID safety perceptionhigh
The boxed warning and public attention to patient deaths could limit prescribing, even if the perceptions are unfounded.
- Reimbursement and pricingmedium
If coverage is not provided or out-of-pocket costs are too high, product use could decline.
- Clinical trial failuremedium
Remlifanserin topline results are expected in the autumn of 2026, and a failure could significantly reduce the pipeline's potential.
- EU approvallow
If the European Commission does not grant authorization for DAYBU, international expansion could be delayed or limited.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The second-quarter growth in DAYBUE sales and the raised guidance point to strong commercial momentum.
- If the RADIANT results are favorable, the company could access a large market in Alzheimer's disease psychosis.
- Being the only approved therapy for two indications offers a durable advantage if adoption continues.
What would break the thesis
- The company remains unprofitable on the basis of accumulated losses and still depends on sales of two products.
- The boxed warning on NUPLAZID could limit growth if physicians remain cautious.
- Earlier study failures show that pipeline outcomes are uncertain and could delay growth.
What to watch
- Topline results of the RADIANT Phase 2 study of remlifanserinSeptember-October 2026
- European Commission decision on DAYBU authorization2026
- DAYBUE STIX sales trend and revised guidanceQ3 2026
- NUPLAZID new-to-brand prescription pace after the sales force expansionQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (05 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
The strategy aims to grow NUPLAZID in the United States, drive new patient adoption of DAYBUE, expand trofinetide outside the U.S. (notably the EU and Japan) and develop early-stage candidates. The company also invests in four capabilities: precision medicine, data innovation including AI and machine learning, globalization and patient empowerment. 1
In the second quarter of 2026, GAAP total revenues were 308 million USD, and the company raised its 2026 total revenue guidance to 1.24-1.30 billion USD. DAYBUE guidance was raised to 480-510 million USD and NUPLAZID guidance was reaffirmed at 760-790 million USD. 3
Segments
NUPLAZID
NUPLAZID (pimavanserin) is a selective 5-HT2A inverse agonist and antagonist, approved by the FDA in April 2016 for hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis. Second-quarter 2026 net sales were 183 million USD, and the company expanded its sales force to increase new-to-brand prescriptions. 1 3
DAYBUE
DAYBUE (trofinetide) has been FDA-approved since March 2023 for Rett syndrome, and the DAYBUE STIX formulation launched in 2026. Sales were 125 million USD in the second quarter of 2026, up 30% year over year, and the CHMP issued a positive opinion for EU authorization under the name DAYBU. 2 3
Market context
The company estimates about 130,000 Parkinson's disease patients are treated annually with atypical antipsychotics in the U.S., of whom about 20% currently receive NUPLAZID. For Rett syndrome, it estimates a prevalent population of 6,000-9,000 people in the U.S. and 9,000-12,000 in the EU. 1
Because no approved competitors exist for these two indications, estimating market potential is difficult, and adoption by physicians, patients and payors will depend on safety profile, reimbursement and pricing. NUPLAZID's market is also shaped by the boxed warning in its label. 1
Trends
- DAYBUE STIX adoptiontailwind
The launch of DAYBUE STIX, a dye- and preservative-free powder, supported DAYBUE sales growth in the second quarter of 2026. If adoption continues, it could support further guidance increases. 1 3
- Pricing and reimbursement pressureheadwind
Payors are increasingly seeking to control costs, and the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program could affect NUPLAZID pricing after 2029. These measures could reduce revenue per unit. 1
- European and Asian expansionmixed
The CHMP positive opinion for DAYBU, if followed by European Commission approval, could open a new market for Rett syndrome. Reimbursement and pricing in the EU remain uncertain. 2 3
- Expanded sales forcemixed
The expanded NUPLAZID sales force showed traction in new prescriptions in 2026, but higher SG&A costs could weigh on operating margins if growth does not materialize. 3
Competitive position
The company states that no FDA-approved treatments exist for the same indications as NUPLAZID and DAYBUE, which places it in a distinctive position. However, patients may be treated with off-label antipsychotics, and most Alzheimer's disease psychosis patients receive off-label antipsychotics. 1
Over the medium term, competition could come from drugs treating psychosis linked to neurodegenerative diseases or from the company's own candidates such as remlifanserin, if approved. The analyzed sources do not identify competitors with a U.S. ticker. 1 2
- Off-label antipsychotics
Atypical antipsychotics prescribed off-label for Alzheimer's disease psychosis, which the source says are used for most patients. 1
- Atypical antipsychotics for Parkinson's
Atypical antipsychotics used in Parkinson's disease patients that compete indirectly with NUPLAZID in clinical practice. 1
- Developers of Alzheimer's psychosis candidates
Companies developing therapies for psychosis in Alzheimer's disease that could compete with remlifanserin in the future, not identified in the analyzed sources. 1
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Acadia Pharmaceuticals Announces Phase 3 Enabling Topline Results from Phase 2 RADIANT Study of Remlifanserin for the Treatment of Alzheimer Disease Psychosis ( ADP )Surge — GDELT DOC · 24 Sept 2026 · RO
- Războiul rețelelor vs. Războiul iluziilor (Kill web, Acadia si strategia generalului Schill)Adevărul · 24 Jun 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 24 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 05 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report05 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report24 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.