olivLaw · US equity research
MBIA Inc. MBI
Surety Insurance · SIC 6351 · Vertical: Surety Insurance (SIC 6351)
MBIA Inc. is a financial guarantee insurer that now runs off its insured portfolios, with its main goals being holding-company liquidity and recovery of paid claims. Its main portfolio, through National, stood at 22.3 billion USD gross par at 31 December 2025, and the PREPA dispute remains the central risk.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, MBIA Inc. (MBI) stock was 4.52 USD (+2.03% on the day), with market capitalisation 230.6 m USD, dividend yield 176.99%, beta 0.69, 52-week range 4.26–7.72 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 26.0 m USD (+73.3% YoY), net income of -23.0 m USD, diluted EPS -0.49 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 51.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.34 – 4.59
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.72 · band width 5.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.53 / 5.66
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.03
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.1% | −1.1% | +2.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −14.9% | −0.5% | −14.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −25.9% | +4.4% | −30.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −36.9% | +12.3% | −49.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −33.3% | +13.5% | −46.9 pp | +2.8% |
| 3 years | −31.6% | +76.4% | −108.0 pp | +42.2% |
| 5 years | −71.2% | +63.7% | −134.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 37.0 m | 14.0 m | 23.0 m | 15.0 m | 28.0 m | 24.0 m | 27.0 m | 26.0 m |
| Interest expense | 50.0 m | 50.0 m | 48.0 m | 50.0 m | 48.0 m | 47.0 m | 48.0 m | 46.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -50.0 m | -62.0 m | -56.0 m | -7.0 m | -56.0 m | -41.0 m | -43.0 m | -23.0 m |
| Income tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net income | 831.0 m | -62.0 m | -56.0 m | -8.0 m | -51.0 m | -40.0 m | -43.0 m | -23.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 17.40 ≈ | -1.28 | -1.12 | -0.17 | -1.03 ≈ | -0.80 | -0.91 | -0.49 |
| Operating cash flow | 3.0 m | -43.0 m | 1.0 m ≈ | 90.0 m ≈ | -10.0 m | -33.0 m | -4.0 m ≈ | -73.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 7.0 m | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 1.0 m | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 162.0 m | 280.0 m | 282.0 m | 189.0 m | 154.0 m | 7.0 m | 42.0 m | 80.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | −62.6% | +72.8% | +0.7% | −33.0% | −18.5% | −95.5% | +500.0% | +90.5% |
| Net income | -296.0 m | -359.0 m | -578.0 m | -445.0 m | -195.0 m | 477.0 m | 435.0 m | -177.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −8.8% | −140.7% |
| Diluted EPS | -3.33 | -4.43 | -9.78 | -8.99 | -3.92 | -10.18 | -9.43 | -3.58 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -182.7% | -128.2% | -205.0% | -235.4% | -126.6% | 6,814.3% | 1,035.7% | -221.3% |
| Free cash flow | -320.0 m | -368.0 m | -390.0 m | 510.0 m | -418.0 m | -195.0 m | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 71.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- -2.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -8.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | -578.0 m | -445.0 m | -148.0 m | -484.0 m | -441.0 m | -181.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -578.0 m | -445.0 m | -195.0 m | 477.0 m | 435.0 m | -177.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -9.78 | -8.99 | -3.92 | -10.18 | -9.43 | -3.58 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | — | 8.00 | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2025verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 167.0 m | 160.0 m | 78.0 m | 108.0 m | 87.0 m | 71.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 5.8 bn | 4.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 5.6 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 149.0 m | -300.0 m | -876.0 m | -1.6 bn | -2.1 bn | -2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | — | 0 | 0 | 409.0 m | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 200.0 m | 1.0 m | 3.0 m | 38.0 m | 4.0 m | 7.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 26.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 230.6 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
26% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 105.13 – 141.38 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual incomeunavailable · input data missing
- Justified P/Bunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)105.13 – 141.38 (Mid 120.59)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Bunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 26.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -19.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 31% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | -8.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 31% |
| P/B · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 177.0% | 100 (vs peers) | 38% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MBIA INC. (MBI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 90.5%; net margin -149.5%.
The estimated value range is 105.13–141.38 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 120.59 USD, the price of 4.52 USD leaves a potential of 2,567.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 96.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 26.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Dividend yield: 177.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -19.6%
- ROA: -8.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROE, Loss ratio, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/B, P/E (TTM), Payout ratio (EPS).
Versus the vertical median
Surety Insurance (SIC 6351) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORIOld Republic International Corporation | 9.6 bn | 9.0 | 17.9% | 11.2% | +11.0% | −13% / +36% |
| ESNTEssent Group Ltd. | 6.2 bn | 9.7 | 12.0% | 51.5% | +1.5% | +10% / +43% |
| MTGMGIC Investment Corp | 5.8 bn | 9.0 | 13.8% | 58.1% | +0.5% | +3% / +66% |
| RDNRadian Group Inc | 4.8 bn | 9.4 | 11.5% | 32.6% | −0.8% | +3% / +42% |
| NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 8.6 | 15.4% | 54.1% | +8.5% | +15% / +60% |
| AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd. | 3.2 bn | 9.6 | 6.3% | 37.3% | +27.3% | −20% / +7% |
| OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc. | 235.2 m | — | -20.4% | -49.6% | +6.5% | −42% / −65% |
| MBIMbia Inc. | 230.6 m | — | — | -149.5% | +90.5% | −33% / −32% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MBI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
MBIA Inc. is a financial guarantee insurer that now runs off its insured portfolios, with its main goals being holding-company liquidity and recovery of paid claims. Its main portfolio, through National, stood at 22.3 billion USD gross par at 31 December 2025, and the PREPA dispute remains the central risk.12
SWOT
Strengths
- The public finance portfolio has a broad credit base spread across several revenue categories, which reduces risk concentration.
- The company maintains liquidity that it considers sufficient to service its obligations over the next several years without accessing capital markets.
- The sale of PREPA custodial receipts reduced uncertainty around part of the most risky exposure.
Weaknesses
- The company no longer writes new policies, and its revenues depend on recovering and administering a portfolio in run-off.
- GAAP results remain negative, and the gap to adjusted measures shows reliance on non-GAAP adjustments.
- Loss reserves rest on complex financial models, and small changes in assumptions can significantly move estimates.
Opportunities
- If state and local finances improve, the credit quality of insured issuers could rise and potential losses could fall.
- A settlement with PREPA creditors could clarify claims and support recoveries, although the terms remain uncertain.
- Recoveries at MBIA Corp. and other remediation actions could support holding-company liquidity in the coming years.
Threats
- The PREPA process continues, and a restructuring plan different from the one expected could sharply affect National's reserves and recoveries.
- Correlation risk could produce simultaneous losses on several credits if one economic event affects many sectors.
- Regulatory or accounting standard changes could raise capital requirements and limit dividends.
Risks
- PREPA exposurehigh
PREPA is in a bankruptcy-like process under PROMESA, and repeated defaults could generate further claims and losses for National.12
- Loss reserve uncertaintyhigh
Reserves rest on subjective estimates and financial models, and differences from actual losses could affect results.1
- NYSDFS regulationmedium
New York regulators could restrict dividends or start reorganization proceedings if surplus capital is insufficient.1
- Concentration and correlation riskmedium
Portfolio diversification has limits, and one economic event could affect several credits at once.1
- Interest rate and inflation risklow
Rate changes can affect both the investment portfolio value and the present value of reserves, in opposite directions.12
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If recoveries on PREPA come in close to those proposed, the holding company could have a more predictable position, and the adjusted profit in 2025 could point to a positive direction.
- A run-off portfolio with declared sufficient liquidity and no need to access markets near term could reduce the holding company's funding risk.
- Better economic conditions for municipal issuers could reduce National's potential losses, which would support results.
What would break the thesis
- If the PREPA process ends with a less favorable plan, reserves and recoveries could be significantly affected and losses could rise.
- GAAP results remain negative, and reliance on adjusted measures may mask the operating difficulties of a portfolio in run-off.
- Estimation models and regulatory assumptions are sensitive to change, and a revision could sharply alter the financial picture.
What to watch
- Appeals court ruling on the PREPA administrative expense claim2026
- Creditor response to the 3 billion USD settlement proposalQ3 2026
- PREPA payment record and National's gross claims paidQ4 2026
- Annual results and any reserve changes in the next 10-Knext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
MBIA Inc., a Connecticut corporation incorporated in 1986, provides financial guarantee insurance on US public finance bonds through National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation, guaranteeing principal and interest on insured obligations. According to the fiscal 2025 Form 10-K, National stopped writing new policies in 2017, and its main activity is surveilling the existing portfolio and remediating troubled credits.1 MBIA Insurance Corporation, which manages the international and structured portfolio, had 2.1 billion USD gross par outstanding at 31 December 2025, and the company does not expect it to have a material economic impact on the parent.1 MBIA Services Corporation provides support services to the other entities on a fee-for-service basis.1
The capital structure aims to let the holding company meet its obligations without accessing capital markets over the near term. At 31 December 2025, 705 million USD of unsecured debt was outstanding, and National paid dividends of 63 million USD to the parent in fiscal 2025.1 The company repurchased no shares in 2025 or 2024, leaving 71 million USD of authorization under the 2023 program.1
Fiscal 2025 results were still negative on a GAAP basis, with a loss of 3.58 USD per basic and diluted share, while adjusted net income per diluted share was 0.46 USD and total revenues were 80 million USD.1 The gap between the two measures mostly reflects non-GAAP adjustments described in the report, so the figures should be read together with the context of a portfolio in run-off.1
Segments
US public finance (National)
The US public finance segment, run through National, guarantees municipal bonds, utilities, airports, health care and education institutions. The portfolio stood at 22.3 billion USD gross par at 31 December 2025, spread across 782 credits, and the ten largest credits represented 32.3% of the total.1 Policies in force have an average life of 8 years.1
International and structured finance (MBIA Corp.)
MBIA Corp. manages international and structured policies, with 2.1 billion USD gross par at 31 December 2025, and its main objective is paying claims to policyholders and maximizing recoveries.1 The company notes that expected recoveries for MBIA Corp. are not assured in full or on the projected timeline.1
Market context
The US public finance guarantee market has been shaped by municipal debt growth, but National has not written new policies since 2017, so market developments affect the company mainly through the value of the existing portfolio. The company notes that state and local economic improvement strengthens the credit quality of insured issuers and could reduce National's potential incurred losses.1 The federal funds rate was held at 3.50% to 3.75%, and inflation remains elevated, factors that affect investment portfolio yield and the present value of loss reserves.2
On the policy side, the context is dominated by the PREPA process under PROMESA, where a June 2024 appeals decision supported bondholder claims, yet the dispute continues. In June 2026 the Oversight Board proposed a 3 billion USD settlement, roughly 35% of the claims of non-settling bondholders.2
Trends
- PREPA process under PROMESAheadwind
PREPA debt remains the largest source of uncertainty. In 2026 National recorded further defaults and paid gross claims of 11 million USD on 1 January and 46 million USD on 1 July.12 If the restructuring confirms a different plan, National's reserves and recoveries could be significantly affected.1
- Sale of PREPA custodial receiptstailwind
In August 2025 National sold about 374 million USD face amount of PREPA custodial receipts, roughly 47% of its bond claims, which reduced near-term volatility and remediation risk.1 The sale price was above the earlier estimate, producing a gain recorded within losses and loss adjustment expense.1
- Interest rate and inflation pathmixed
Higher rates could reduce the value of the investment portfolio but raise investment yield and income and lower the present value of loss reserves.2 Rate changes therefore have offsetting effects on the balance sheet and earnings.2
- Regulatory stabilityheadwind
The regulatory environment remains important, since the NYSDFS can restrict dividends or start rehabilitation proceedings if surplus at the subsidiaries is insufficient.1 The company also notes that accounting standard changes can alter reported results.1
Competitive position
The supplied sources do not explicitly name direct competitors of MBIA. The company describes itself as operating in the financial guarantee insurance industry, and because its portfolio is largely in run-off, its competitive position is determined mainly by its ability to manage and recover losses on existing policies.1
Comparative positioning should be interpreted with caution, because the sources provide no market share data or details on other insurers in the sector. A comparative analysis requires information from other sources.1
- Other US financial guarantee insurers
The sources do not name specific competitors; comparative analysis needs additional data.
- International financial guarantee insurers
Not identified in the supplied sources.
- Unwrapped municipal bond issuers
An indirect alternative could be issuing bonds without a guarantee, but the sources do not detail this.
- Structured finance providers
Not named in the supplied sources.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement23 Mar 2026
- Current report26 Feb 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report26 Feb 2026
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / MBIA Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / MBIA Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / MBIA Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.