olivLaw · US equity research
MGIC Investment Corp. MTG
Surety Insurance · SIC 6351 · Vertical: Surety Insurance (SIC 6351)
MGIC Investment Corp. is a holding company whose main subsidiary MGIC provides private mortgage insurance for low down payment loans, helping homebuyers qualify for mortgages. In 2025 the company reported total revenues of 1.2 billion USD, and in the second quarter of 2026 a net income of 182.1 million USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG) stock was 29.13 USD (+1.71% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.8 bn USD, P/E 9.0 on diluted EPS of 3.22 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.13%, beta 0.55, 52-week range 24.86–31.47 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 299.1 m USD (−1.8% YoY), net income of 175.0 m USD (−8.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.85 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 26.78 – 29.37
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.91 · band width 9.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 28.90 / 27.78
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.12 / -0.07
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +7.4% | −1.1% | +8.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −4.8% | −0.5% | −4.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +10.3% | +4.4% | +5.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −0.3% | +12.3% | −12.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +3.8% | +13.5% | −9.8 pp | −13.3% |
| 3 years | +64.2% | +76.4% | −12.2 pp | +36.3% |
| 5 years | +84.7% | +63.7% | +21.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 301.4 m | 306.2 m | 304.2 m | 304.5 m | 298.7 m | 297.1 m | 295.4 m | 299.1 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.0 m | 2.7 m | 2.5 m ≈ | 900.0 k ≈ | 821.0 k | -84.0 k | 2.0 m ≈ | 954.0 k ≈ |
| Interest expense | 8.9 m | 8.9 m | 8.9 m | 8.9 m | 8.9 m | 8.9 m | 8.9 m | 8.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 234.7 m | 234.7 m | 246.1 m | 235.1 m | 212.7 m | 206.8 m | 229.9 m | 221.3 m |
| Income tax | 50.0 m | 49.2 m | 53.6 m | 44.0 m | 43.4 m | 41.5 m | 47.8 m | 46.3 m |
| Net income | 184.7 m | 185.5 m | 192.5 m | 191.1 m | 169.3 m | 165.3 m | 182.1 m | 175.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.72 ≈ | 0.75 | 0.81 | 0.83 | 0.75 ≈ | 0.76 | 0.86 | 0.85 |
| Operating cash flow | 182.4 m | 223.7 m | 183.0 m ≈ | 215.4 m ≈ | 230.8 m | 76.9 m | 185.0 m ≈ | 216.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 514.0 k | 125.0 k | 20.0 k ≈ | 279.0 k ≈ | 601.0 k | 184.0 k | 473.0 k ≈ | 111.0 k ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 32.9 m | 33.9 m | 30.8 m ≈ | 34.4 m ≈ | 33.4 m | 35.2 m | 31.6 m ≈ | 34.8 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 194.7 m | 225.2 m | 186.4 m ≈ | 187.9 m ≈ | 189.2 m | 192.4 m | 184.7 m ≈ | 151.7 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 70 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 3.4, median 8.1, max 15.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +5.4% | +8.0% | −1.2% | −1.1% | −1.1% | −1.5% | +4.6% | +0.5% |
| Net income | 670.1 m | 673.8 m | 446.1 m | 635.0 m | 865.3 m | 712.9 m | 763.0 m | 738.3 m |
| Net income YoY | +88.4% | +0.5% | −33.8% | +42.3% | +36.3% | −17.6% | +7.0% | −3.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.78 | 1.85 | 1.29 | 1.85 | 2.79 | 2.49 | 2.89 | 3.14 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +87.4% | +3.9% | −30.3% | +43.4% | +50.8% | −10.8% | +16.1% | +8.7% |
| net % | 59.6% | 55.5% | 37.2% | 53.6% | 73.8% | 61.7% | 63.2% | 60.8% |
| Free cash flow | 530.3 m | 603.9 m | 729.0 m | 692.2 m | 646.8 m | 711.0 m | 723.9 m | 851.8 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 369.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 5.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 6.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 14.3%
- ROA
- 11.2%
- FCF margin
- 70.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 559.3 m | 801.8 m | 1.1 bn | 902.2 m | 968.7 m | 928.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 446.1 m | 635.0 m | 865.3 m | 712.9 m | 763.0 m | 738.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.29 | 1.85 | 2.79 | 2.49 | 2.89 | 3.14 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2021verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 288.0 m | 284.7 m | 327.4 m | 363.7 m | 229.5 m | 369.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 7.4 bn | 7.3 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 662.8 m | 643.2 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Feb 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.7 bn † | 4.9 bn † | 4.6 bn † | 5.1 bn † | 5.2 bn † | 5.1 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 82.1 m | 94.2 m | 110.9 m | 123.0 m | 130.5 m | 132.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 120.0 m | 290.8 m | 385.6 m | 337.2 m | 569.5 m | 788.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 55 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 5.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet100
- Valuation47
- Quality67
- Growth27
- Returns63
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 16.61 – 47.50 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income26.31 – 27.53 (Mid 26.91)
- Justified P/B35.32 – 47.50 (Mid 40.51)
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate0.79 – 1.06 (Mid 0.90)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
- Peers: P/E29.01 – 31.07 (Mid 30.29)5 companies used · median multiple 9.4x · quartiles 9.0x – 9.6xAGO, ESNT, NMIH, ORI, RDN
- Peers: P/B16.61 – 29.04 (Mid 25.66)6 companies used · median multiple 1.1x · quartiles 0.7x – 1.2xAGO, ESNT, NMIH, ORI, OSG, RDN
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 55/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 13.8% | 67 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 4.0% | 40 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 1.1% | 11 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 10.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/B · Valuation | 1.2x | 33 (vs peers) | 16% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.0x | 60 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 2.1% | 40 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 19.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth27/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial67/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns63/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation47/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MGIC Investment Corp (MTG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 0.5%; net margin 58.1%; ROE 13.8%.
The estimated value range is 27.66–30.05 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 28.60 USD, the price of 29.13 USD leaves a potential of -1.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -1.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 55/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: quality. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROA: 10.6%
- Payout ratio (EPS): 19.2%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio.
Versus the vertical median
Surety Insurance (SIC 6351) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORIOld Republic International Corporation | 9.6 bn | 9.0 | 17.9% | 11.2% | +11.0% | −13% / +36% |
| ESNTEssent Group Ltd. | 6.2 bn | 9.7 | 12.0% | 51.5% | +1.5% | +10% / +43% |
| MTGMGIC Investment Corp | 5.8 bn | 9.0 | 13.8% | 58.1% | +0.5% | +4% / +64% |
| RDNRadian Group Inc | 4.8 bn | 9.4 | 11.5% | 32.6% | −0.8% | +3% / +42% |
| NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 8.6 | 15.4% | 54.1% | +8.5% | +15% / +60% |
| AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd. | 3.2 bn | 9.6 | 6.3% | 37.3% | +27.3% | −20% / +7% |
| OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc. | 235.2 m | — | -20.4% | -49.6% | +6.5% | −42% / −65% |
| MBIMbia Inc. | 230.6 m | — | — | -149.5% | +90.5% | −40% / −38% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MTG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 17.95 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 31.79 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 47.95 Total return 67% · Per year 67% |
| 3 years | 16.27 Total return -39% · Per year -15% | 32.52 Total return 19% · Per year 6% | 54.03 Total return 94% · Per year 25% |
| 5 years | 14.74 Total return -41% · Per year -10% | 33.27 Total return 26% · Per year 5% | 60.87 Total return 125% · Per year 18% |
- Exit P/E± 8.13
- Net margin± 5.69
- Annual revenue growth± 4.83
- Annual dilution± 0.48
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
MGIC Investment Corp. is a holding company whose main subsidiary MGIC provides private mortgage insurance for low down payment loans, helping homebuyers qualify for mortgages. In 2025 the company reported total revenues of 1.2 billion USD, and in the second quarter of 2026 a net income of 182.1 million USD 13.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a solid financial position, with holding company liquidity and compliance with PMIERs requirements 13.
- The company improved the financial strength rating of MGIC, which supports lender confidence 1.
- The company reduced operating costs through streamlined processes and workflow optimization 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenue depends heavily on loans purchased by the GSEs, which makes the company vulnerable to changes in their practices 1.
- The PMI market lost share to government programs, especially in segments with lower credit scores 1.
- Loss reserves rely on estimates that may differ substantially from actual claim payments 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on the GSEshigh
Most new insurance written comes from loans purchased by the GSEs, so changes in their practices could directly affect revenue 1.
- PMIERs eligibilityhigh
If available assets fall below the minimum required, the company could lose eligibility to insure GSE-purchased loans 1.
- Economic cyclemedium
Unemployment and falling home prices could increase delinquencies and claims 1.
- Loss reserve estimatesmedium
Loss reserves depend on management judgment, and actual payments could differ substantially 1.
- State capital requirementslow
State capital requirements could limit new business if reinsurance is not fully recognized 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Quarterly profitability remains high, and the return on equity points to efficient use of capital 3.
- The company returned capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, and the board approved a new repurchase program 3.
- The improved rating and solid financial position could support market share if the industry remains stable 1.
What to watch
- Development of net losses and the delinquency rateQ3 2026
- Adoption of VantageScore 4.0 and its impact on business mix2027
- Progress of GSE reform and FHFA conservatorshipnext 10-K
- Level of PMIERs excess over minimum required assetsQ4 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
The company provides private mortgage insurance, helping lenders cover the risk of default on low down payment loans 1. Its main asset is MGIC, licensed in all 50 US states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and Guam 1. Its 2026 strategy focuses on creating value, differentiating through customer experience and building digital and analytical advantages 1.
In 2025 the company earned 738 million USD of net income and paid 800 million USD of dividends from MGIC to the holding company, a 7% increase over 2024 1. It repurchased 12% of its shares outstanding at the start of the year 1. Underwriting and other expenses fell 8% in 2025 1.
Segments
Market context
Trends
- Credit score modernizationmixed
The GSEs began a phased rollout of VantageScore 4.0, which could change borrower eligibility and the mix of insured business 2.
- GSE reformheadwind
Reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remains uncertain and could change demand for private mortgage insurance 1.
- Mortgage origination volumetailwind
Total mortgage originations are forecast to be higher in 2026 than in 2025, which could support NIW volume 1.
- Pricing pressureheadwind
Price has become a key competitive factor, and the industry increasingly uses risk-based pricing, which could compress premium yields 1.
Competitive position
The company competes with five other private mortgage insurers as well as government agencies such as FHA and VA 1. Competition is described as intense and expected to remain so 1. Key factors are price, underwriting requirements, financial strength and customer relationships 1.
- Essent GroupESNT
Private mortgage insurer among the five competitors referenced in the industry, per source 1.
- Radian GroupRDN
Private mortgage insurer part of the group of five competitors named in the annual report 1.
- Federal Housing Administration
Government agency offering mortgage insurance and holding the largest share of the alternative market 1.
- Department of Veterans Affairs
Government program competing with private insurance, including loans with zero down payment 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Apr 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Apr 2026Shareholder vote
- Proxy statement20 Mar 2026
- Annual report25 Feb 2026
- Current report02 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / MGIC Investment Corp. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / MGIC Investment Corp. · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / MGIC Investment Corp. · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.