olivLaw · US equity research
Markel Group Inc. MKL
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance · SIC 6331 · Vertical: Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance (SIC 6331)
Markel Group (MKL) is a holding company whose cornerstone is Markel Insurance, which generated operating revenues of 15.5 billion USD in fiscal 2025. The Markel Insurance combined ratio was 95% in 2025. The first half of 2026 shows an improved combined ratio, though losses from the Middle East conflict weighed on results.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Markel Group Inc. (MKL) stock was 1,954.51 USD (+2.96% on the day), with market capitalisation 23.9 bn USD, P/E 14.1 on diluted EPS of 138.40 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.51, 52-week range 1,712.45–2,191.90 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 4.2 bn USD (+5.7% YoY), net income of 259.3 m USD (−65.5% YoY), diluted EPS 18.15 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 71.8
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1,753.89 – 1,950.01
- above the upper band · %B 1.02 · band width 10.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1,804.68 / 1,894.02
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 33.13 / 25.58
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.2% | −1.1% | +14.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +4.1% | −0.5% | +4.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +9.5% | +4.4% | +5.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −9.1% | +12.3% | −21.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −1.4% | +13.5% | −14.9 pp | +13.7% |
| 3 years | +46.2% | +76.4% | −30.2 pp | +58.9% |
| 5 years | +48.9% | +63.7% | −14.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn |
| Operating income | 595.5 m | 282.5 m | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 795.1 m | -273.3 m | 1.6 bn | 383.2 m |
| Interest expense | 52.8 m | 52.1 m | 53.1 m | 50.7 m | 50.0 m | 50.9 m | 52.4 m | 50.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 723.5 m | 157.8 m | 862.4 m | 978.4 m | 734.2 m | -269.9 m | 1.5 bn | 346.8 m |
| Income tax | 162.1 m | 28.4 m | 185.2 m | 214.7 m | 152.1 m | -65.6 m | 332.9 m | 76.6 m |
| Net income | 549.2 m | 121.7 m | 657.1 m | 751.3 m | 576.8 m | -212.3 m | 1.2 bn | 259.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 42.51 ≈ | 12.08 | 49.67 | 59.25 | 46.39 ≈ | -18.90 | 92.76 | 18.15 |
| Operating cash flow | 493.9 m | 376.2 m | 504.4 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 662.2 m | 15.9 m | 428.9 m ≈ | 946.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 74.0 m | 40.7 m | 50.6 m ≈ | 52.4 m ≈ | 63.1 m | 47.3 m | 44.3 m ≈ | 96.5 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 183.6 m | 170.3 m | 99.4 m ≈ | 74.4 m ≈ | 85.5 m | 133.9 m | 236.7 m ≈ | 314.7 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 5.8, median 15.0, max 496.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.8 bn | 9.5 bn | 9.7 bn | 12.8 bn | 11.7 bn | 14.3 bn | 14.8 bn | 15.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +12.9% | +39.2% | +2.2% | +32.0% | −9.1% | +22.3% | +3.7% | +4.7% |
| Net income | -128.2 m | 1.8 bn | 816.0 m | 2.4 bn | -216.3 m | 2.0 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | −132.4% | unavailable | −54.4% | +196.9% | −108.9% | unavailable | +37.6% | −23.3% |
| Diluted EPS | -9.55 | 129.07 | 55.63 | 176.38 | -23.72 | 146.98 | 199.32 | 169.22 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −137.0% | unavailable | −56.9% | +217.1% | −113.4% | unavailable | +35.6% | −15.1% |
| net % | -1.9% | 18.8% | 8.4% | 18.9% | -1.9% | 14.0% | 18.5% | 13.6% |
| Free cash flow | 786.3 m | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 4.0 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 4.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 339.1 m USD
- Equity
- 18.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 68.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.23x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 11.9%
- ROA
- 3.2%
- FCF margin
- 16.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 1.0 bn | 3.1 bn | -151.6 m | 2.7 bn | 3.6 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 816.0 m | 2.4 bn | -216.3 m | 2.0 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 55.63 | 176.38 | -23.72 | 146.98 | 199.32 | 169.22 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.3 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 41.7 bn | 48.5 bn | 49.8 bn | 55.0 bn | 61.9 bn | 68.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.5 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 28.6 bn | 33.3 bn | 36.1 bn | 39.5 bn | 44.4 bn | 49.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 12.8 bn | 14.7 bn | 13.2 bn | 15.1 bn | 16.9 bn | 18.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share repurchases | 26.8 m | 206.5 m | 290.8 m | 445.5 m | 572.7 m | 429.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 23.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
62% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1,239.49 – 3,748.02 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income1,496.60 – 1,566.73 (Mid 1,531.06)
- Justified P/B1,418.21 – 1,907.25 (Mid 1,626.77)
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
- Peers: P/E1,239.49 – 1,827.73 (Mid 1,545.74)11 companies used · median multiple 11.2x · quartiles 9.0x – 13.2xACGL, AIG, ALL, CB, CINF, EG, HIG, L, PGR, TRV, WRB
- Peers: P/B2,119.28 – 3,748.02 (Mid 2,954.54)11 companies used · median multiple 2.0x · quartiles 1.4x – 2.5xACGL, AIG, ALL, CB, CINF, EG, HIG, L, PGR, TRV, WRB
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 9.8% | 18 (vs peers) | 29% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 9.9% | 99 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 2.6% | 83 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/B · Valuation | 1.3x | 73 (vs peers) | 23% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 14.1x | 18 (vs peers) | 23% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet83/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth· partial99/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial18/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation45/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MARKEL GROUP INC. (MKL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 4.7%; net margin 11.4%; ROE 9.8%.
The estimated value range is 1,457.40–1,867.49 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1,586.26 USD, the price of 1,954.51 USD leaves a potential of -18.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -23.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.9%
- ROA: 2.6%
- P/B: 1.3x
What contradicts it
- ROE: 9.8%
- P/E (TTM): 14.1x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio, EPS CAGR 3Y, Dividend yield, Payout ratio (EPS).
Versus the vertical median
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance (SIC 6331) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 3.0 bn and 188.9 bn (within 8× of the company's); 46 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBChubb Limited | 143.0 bn | 13.1 | 15.5% | 18.2% | +6.5% | +26% / +63% |
| PGRProgressive Corp | 136.0 bn | 11.8 | 33.2% | 12.7% | +16.3% | +3% / +43% |
| TRVTravelers Companies, Inc. | 83.9 bn | 10.7 | 27.5% | 17.0% | +5.2% | +40% / +127% |
| ALLAllstate Corp | 66.6 bn | 6.1 | 38.9% | 16.6% | +5.6% | +26% / +95% |
| AIGAmerican International Group, Inc. | 42.4 bn | 13.3 | 8.2% | 11.9% | −1.7% | +7% / +24% |
| HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | 36.9 bn | 8.3 | 24.7% | 15.4% | +6.9% | +1% / +77% |
| ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | 36.0 bn | 9.0 | 18.7% | 23.3% | +14.3% | +18% / +32% |
| CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | 29.2 bn | 11.2 | 16.9% | 20.1% | +11.4% | +14% / +85% |
| WRBBerkley W R Corp | 28.5 bn | 16.2 | 19.2% | 12.5% | +7.8% | −1% / +59% |
| MKLMarkel Group Inc. | 23.9 bn | 14.1 | 9.8% | 11.4% | +4.7% | −1% / +46% |
| LLoews Corp | 22.6 bn | 15.4 | 8.1% | 7.9% | +5.4% | +4% / +59% |
| EGEverest Group, Ltd. | 15.6 bn | 8.9 | 12.8% | 11.7% | +1.2% | +34% / +3% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MKL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1,290.47 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 2,275.80 Total return 16% · Per year 16% | 3,420.25 Total return 75% · Per year 75% |
| 3 years | 1,393.04 Total return -29% · Per year -11% | 2,750.57 Total return 41% · Per year 12% | 4,518.34 Total return 131% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 1,503.76 Total return -23% · Per year -5% | 3,324.39 Total return 70% · Per year 11% | 5,968.97 Total return 205% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 687.64
- Net margin± 481.35
- Annual revenue growth± 375.55
- Annual dilution± 40.45
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
In brief
Markel Group (MKL) is a holding company whose cornerstone is Markel Insurance, which generated operating revenues of 15.5 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1. The Markel Insurance combined ratio was 95% in 2025 1. The first half of 2026 shows an improved combined ratio, though losses from the Middle East conflict weighed on results 2.
SWOT
Strengths
- A long-running insurance franchise with a history of underwriting profit that supports group results.
- Diversification through independently run businesses with cash flows from several sources.
- Low debt and flexibility for acquisitions and share repurchases.
Weaknesses
- A concentrated equity portfolio can produce large swings in results.
- Reported results can be distorted by gains and losses on investments.
- Decentralized management can lead to inconsistent governance practices.
Opportunities
- Growth in personal and international lines could widen the customer base.
- Acquisitions of majority-owned businesses could add growth if integration succeeds.
- Fronting arrangements with partners such as Nephila could generate fee income.
Threats
- Catastrophes and geopolitical conflicts could produce unexpected losses.
- Declines in capital markets could quickly weigh on capital and shareholder value.
- Activist campaigns and rating pressure could limit strategic choices.
Risks
- Equity portfolio volatilityhigh
A fall in the value of the equity portfolio could significantly reduce profit and shareholder capital 1.
- Catastrophes and rare eventshigh
Losses from natural catastrophes or terrorism-type events could exceed current estimates 12.
- Integration riskmedium
Integrating acquisitions may prove harder than expected, with a risk of goodwill impairment 1.
- Access to capital and ratingsmedium
A downgrade of senior debt ratings could raise borrowing costs and limit access to capital markets 1.
- Shareholder activismlow
Activist campaigns could divert management attention and add share price volatility 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the combined ratio stays below the profitability threshold and investments keep growing, underlying profit growth could support long-term value 12.
- The diversified holding model, with cash flows from several industries, could reduce dependence on a single economic cycle 1.
- Low debt and ongoing share repurchases could amplify per-share value if results hold up 13.
What would break the thesis
- If capital markets fall, the concentrated equity portfolio could produce large losses in profit and capital 1.
- Losses from the Middle East conflict and other rare events could recur and weigh on the combined ratio 2.
- Quarterly results are volatile because of investment gains and losses, which makes short-term assessment difficult 12.
What to watch
- Trend in the Markel Insurance combined ratioQ3 2026
- Impact of the Middle East conflict on lossesQ3 2026
- Integration of acquisitions and Industrial segment results2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
The business
Markel Group is a holding company that owns independently operated businesses across several industries. Its cornerstone business, Markel Insurance, provides specialized insurance products not typically available through the standard market, and generates the capital used for growth and investment across the group 1.
The other majority-owned businesses operate in diverse end markets, from industrial bakery equipment to ornamental plants to precast concrete. The group also owns shares in publicly traded companies, primarily held within its insurance operations 1.
Capital is redeployed through reinvestment, acquisitions of majority-owned businesses, investments in public companies and share repurchases, guided by a four-part test: good returns on capital with modest debt, capable and honest management, reinvestment opportunities, and a fair price 1.
Market context
Markel Insurance focuses on hard-to-place risks through divisions in the U.S. wholesale and specialty market, programs and solutions, a Bermuda platform and international operations in 15 countries 1. The specialty insurance market is cyclical, and results depend on underwriting discipline.
Most premiums are placed through wholesale brokers, with a portion distributed through retail agents and brokers 1. Exposure to natural catastrophes and geopolitical events can influence quarterly results 12.
Trends
- Recovering underwriting profitabilitytailwind
The combined ratio improved in 2025 and in the first half of 2026, supporting Markel Insurance results 12. If the trend continues, profitability could remain solid.
- Middle East conflictheadwind
Losses tied to the Middle East conflict weighed on the second-quarter 2026 combined ratio, mainly on terrorism, energy and marine war cover 2. The course of the conflict remains uncertain.
- Exit from global reinsurancemixed
The Global Reinsurance division is in run-off, so premiums will keep earning for several years while reserves run off 1. The effect on future premiums is negative but limited.
- Growth in fronting and specialty linesmixed
Fronting premiums rose sharply in 2025, and personal and international professional lines grew 12. These lines can add volume but may carry higher expense ratios.
Competitive position
The sources in this set do not provide a detailed competitive analysis, but Markel Insurance operates in specialty niches where it competes with other specialty insurers and reinsurers 1. Its exact position against rivals cannot be assessed from these documents alone.
The group's diversity, spanning industrial and financial businesses, makes a single-peer comparison difficult. Its stated advantages are the decentralized model and shared culture, which it describes as hard to replicate 1.
- Other specialty insurers
Competitors in casualty, marine and energy lines, described generically in the source documents.
- Reinsurance companies
Competitors in global reinsurance, a segment Markel has placed into run-off.
- Wholesale and retail brokers
Distribution channels through which most premiums are placed, influencing access to clients.
- Personal and collector auto and home insurers
Competitors in personal lines, where Markel offers cover for non-standard homes and special vehicles.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report28 Oct 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
- Current report08 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report22 May 2026Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Apr 2026
- Proxy statement02 Apr 2026
- Current report26 Feb 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report26 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Markel Group Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Markel Group Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Markel Group Inc. · 04 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.