olivLaw · US equity research
The Progressive Corporation PGR
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance · SIC 6331 · Vertical: Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance (SIC 6331)
Progressive is a US insurance holding company led by personal auto insurance, with a growing commercial lines and property business. In 2026 it kept underwriting profit above its target while policies in force kept growing in a more competitive market.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) stock was 234.82 USD (+2.49% on the day), with market capitalisation 136.0 bn USD, P/E 11.8 on diluted EPS of 19.86 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.92%, beta 0.12, 52-week range 190.40–236.36 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 23.2 bn USD (+3.0% YoY), net income of 2.5 bn USD (−2.8% YoY), diluted EPS 4.37 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 64.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 211.75 – 236.74
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.92 · band width 11.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 218.34 / 209.71
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 4.65 / 3.76
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +10.4% | −1.1% | +11.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +10.4% | −0.5% | +10.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +19.3% | +4.4% | +14.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.1% | +12.3% | −9.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +12.0% | +13.5% | −1.5 pp | +10.5% |
| 3 years | +50.3% | +76.4% | −26.1 pp | +61.0% |
| 5 years | +145.0% | +63.7% | +81.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20.3 bn | 20.4 bn | 22.0 bn | 22.5 bn | 22.7 bn | 22.2 bn | 23.6 bn | 23.2 bn |
| Interest expense | 70.0 m | 70.0 m | 69.0 m | 70.0 m | 69.0 m | 70.0 m | 88.0 m | 87.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.2 bn |
| Income tax | 611.0 m | 669.0 m | 807.0 m | 708.0 m | 731.0 m | 748.0 m | 898.0 m | 694.0 m |
| Net income | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.5 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 4.01 ≈ | 4.37 | 5.40 | 4.45 | 5.02 ≈ | 4.80 | 5.67 | 4.37 |
| Operating cash flow | 3.0 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.0 bn ≈ | 5.2 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn | 4.4 bn | 3.6 bn ≈ | 4.5 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 110.0 m | 59.0 m | 102.0 m ≈ | 66.0 m ≈ | 121.0 m | 63.0 m | 138.0 m ≈ | 116.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 59.0 m | 2.7 bn | 59.0 m ≈ | 58.0 m ≈ | 59.0 m | 8.0 bn | 58.0 m ≈ | 58.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 20 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 8.7, median 16.7, max 109.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 32.0 bn | 39.0 bn | 42.7 bn | 47.7 bn | 49.6 bn | 62.1 bn | 75.4 bn | 87.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +19.2% | +22.0% | +9.3% | +11.8% | +4.0% | +25.2% | +21.4% | +16.3% |
| Net income | 2.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 5.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 722.0 m | 3.9 bn | 8.5 bn | 11.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | +64.3% | +51.8% | +43.7% | −41.3% | −78.5% | +440.6% | +117.3% | +33.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.42 | 6.72 | 9.66 | 5.66 | 1.18 | 6.58 | 14.40 | 19.23 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +62.5% | +52.0% | +43.8% | −41.4% | −79.2% | +457.6% | +118.8% | +33.5% |
| net % | 8.2% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 11.3% | 12.9% |
| Free cash flow | 6.0 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.7 bn | 7.5 bn | 6.6 bn | 10.4 bn | 14.8 bn | 17.2 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 138.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 0 USD
- Net debt
- -138.0 m USD
- Equity
- 30.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 123.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 40.4%
- ROA
- 9.9%
- FCF margin
- 19.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 7.2 bn | 4.2 bn | 922.0 m | 4.9 bn | 10.7 bn | 14.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 5.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 722.0 m | 3.9 bn | 8.5 bn | 11.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 9.66 | 5.66 | 1.18 | 6.58 | 14.40 | 19.23 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 4.90 | 1.90 | 0.40 | 1.15 | 4.90 | 13.90 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 76.5 m | 202.0 m | 221.0 m | 100.0 m | 154.0 m | 138.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 64.1 bn | 71.1 bn | 75.5 bn | 88.7 bn | 105.7 bn | 123.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 500.0 m | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 47.1 bn | 52.9 bn | 59.6 bn | 68.4 bn | 80.2 bn | 92.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 17.0 bn † | 18.2 bn † | 15.9 bn † | 20.3 bn † | 25.6 bn † | 30.3 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 1.6 bn | 3.7 bn | 234.0 m | 234.0 m | 674.0 m | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 71 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 136.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation25
- Returns84
- Quality90
- Balance sheet100
- Growth100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 80.97 – 315.46 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income90.14 – 94.02 (Mid 92.05)
- Justified P/B234.57 – 315.46 (Mid 269.07)
- Dividend discount (DDM)182.66 – 245.65 (Mid 209.52)
- Peers: P/E187.60 – 276.45 (Mid 240.91)10 companies used · median multiple 12.1x · quartiles 9.4x – 13.9xACGL, AIG, ALL, CB, CINF, HIG, L, MKL, TRV, WRB
- Peers: P/B80.97 – 121.11 (Mid 111.88)10 companies used · median multiple 1.9x · quartiles 1.4x – 2.0xACGL, AIG, ALL, CB, CINF, HIG, L, MKL, TRV, WRB
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 71/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 33.2% | 90 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 153.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 20.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 9.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/B · Valuation | 3.9x | 0 (vs peers) | 16% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.8x | 50 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 5.9% | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 70.0% | 57 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial90/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns84/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation25/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 16.3%; net margin 12.7%; ROE 33.2%.
The estimated value range is 182.66–245.65 USD per share (median of 5 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 209.52 USD, the price of 234.82 USD leaves a potential of -10.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -12.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 71/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: quality. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROE: 33.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 153.5%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 20.9%
- ROA: 9.3%
- Dividend yield: 5.9%
What contradicts it
- P/B: 3.9x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio.
Versus the vertical median
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance (SIC 6331) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 16.7 bn and 1,068.0 bn (within 8× of the company's); 47 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBChubb Limited | 143.0 bn | 13.1 | 15.5% | 18.2% | +6.5% | +26% / +63% |
| PGRProgressive Corp | 136.0 bn | 11.8 | 33.2% | 12.7% | +16.3% | +12% / +50% |
| TRVTravelers Companies, Inc. | 83.9 bn | 10.7 | 27.5% | 17.0% | +5.2% | +40% / +127% |
| ALLAllstate Corp | 66.6 bn | 6.1 | 38.9% | 16.6% | +5.6% | +26% / +95% |
| AIGAmerican International Group, Inc. | 42.4 bn | 13.3 | 8.2% | 11.9% | −1.7% | +7% / +24% |
| HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | 36.9 bn | 8.3 | 24.7% | 15.4% | +6.9% | +1% / +77% |
| ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | 36.0 bn | 9.0 | 18.7% | 23.3% | +14.3% | +18% / +32% |
| CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | 29.2 bn | 11.2 | 16.9% | 20.1% | +11.4% | +14% / +85% |
| WRBBerkley W R Corp | 28.5 bn | 16.2 | 19.2% | 12.5% | +7.8% | −1% / +59% |
| MKLMarkel Group Inc. | 23.9 bn | 14.1 | 9.8% | 11.4% | +4.7% | −6% / +36% |
| LLoews Corp | 22.6 bn | 15.4 | 8.1% | 7.9% | +5.4% | +4% / +59% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PGR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 155.01 Total return -29% · Per year -29% | 272.79 Total return 23% · Per year 23% | 409.19 Total return 83% · Per year 83% |
| 3 years | 183.86 Total return -5% · Per year -2% | 360.77 Total return 78% · Per year 21% | 589.23 Total return 181% · Per year 41% |
| 5 years | 218.09 Total return 24% · Per year 4% | 477.11 Total return 150% · Per year 20% | 848.49 Total return 323% · Per year 33% |
- Exit P/E± 90.19
- Net margin± 63.13
- Annual revenue growth± 47.09
- Annual dilution± 5.31
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 14 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).
In brief
Progressive is a US insurance holding company led by personal auto insurance, with a growing commercial lines and property business. In 2026 it kept underwriting profit above its target while policies in force kept growing in a more competitive market 23.
SWOT
Strengths
- Progressive has a strong position in personal and commercial auto, a large agency network and efficient direct distribution 1. Underwriting profit stayed above the company's goal in 2026 2.
- The company has a solid balance sheet with high total capital and a large number of policies in force 23. Its own data and pricing models are used to match rates to risk 1.
- The Destination Era strategy, which links multiple products, can raise customer loyalty, and bundled customers tend to stay longer 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Under-reserving for claimshigh
Loss reserves are estimates, and ultimate paid losses could exceed reported reserves, affecting profit 1.
- Catastrophe losseshigh
Severe weather can produce large property losses and exhaust reinsurance programs 1.
- Reinsurance counterparty riskmedium
If reinsurers cannot pay or dispute claims, the company remains liable to policyholders 1.
- Rating restrictionsmedium
Limits on rating factors could reduce the ability to match price to risk, affecting margins 1.
- Investment losseslow
Unrealized bond losses seen in 2026 could weigh on comprehensive income and capital 23.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Progressive keeps its lead in auto insurance and continues growing policies, it could support longer-term profit growth 13.
- Underwriting profit above target and a solid balance sheet give a base of stability even under competitive pressure 23.
- If its bundling strategy and direct distribution keep working, the company could grow revenue from multi-product customers 1.
What to watch
- Trend in underwriting margin and loss ratio in personal linesQ3 2026
- Growth in auto policies and demand for new businessQ4 2026
- Impact of the catastrophe season on the property line2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 14 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).
The business
Progressive writes mainly personal auto and special lines insurance, homeowners and renters property insurance, and commercial insurance for small businesses, commercial auto and transportation workers' compensation 1. It operates throughout the United States and sells through independent agents and directly online or by phone 1. Its Destination Era strategy aims to bundle products for customers, supported by a network of more than 40,000 independent agencies 1.
Personal Lines is the main revenue source, representing 87% of total net premiums written in 2025 1. Beyond auto, the company offers insurance for motorcycles, watercraft and RVs, and property coverage that includes manufactured homes and flood through the Write Your Own program 1. Its Snapshot usage-based program and rating models remain central to pricing 1.
Market context
In commercial auto Progressive has ranked first since 2015, and the top insurers hold about 88% of the segment 1. Competition rose in 2026, and the company noted increased competition without giving pricing figures 2. If competitive pressure continues, it could affect volume and margins in future periods 2.
Trends
- Growth in auto policiestailwind
Auto policy growth continued in 2026, supported by policies in force, although new business demand was weaker 2. If this pace holds, the company could keep its scale advantage in distribution 3.
- Higher claim costsheadwind
The loss and loss adjustment expense ratio rose in the second quarter of 2026, mainly due to higher claim severity 2. If severity stays high, margins could come under pressure 2.
- Catastrophes and climate changeheadwind
Hurricanes, storms and other severe weather directly affect property insurance, and the company notes climate change may make these events more frequent 1. The impact varies by year and region 3.
- Investment incomemixed
Investment income rose in 2026, while unrealized bond losses weighed on comprehensive income in the third quarter 23. If yields stay high, investment income could support net profit 3.
Competitive position
Progressive competes with specialty companies and large multi-line insurers, especially in personal auto, commercial auto and homeowners 1. The company says volume depends on price competitiveness, brand recognition and service quality delivered by its employees 1.
Auto competition intensified in 2026, and Progressive kept investing in advertising, with spending up 16% in the second quarter 2. If promotion costs stay high, pressure on the expense ratio could grow 2.
- Other US auto insurers
Large multi-line carriers and specialty auto insurers identified in the source as main competitors in personal auto.
- Recreational vehicle insurance specialists
Specialty companies compete for motorcycle, boat and RV coverage.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Dementia with Lewy bodies: What you should know about the little‑known, progressive brain diseaseMedical Xpress · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Dementia with Lewy bodies: what you should know about the little-known, progressive brain diseaseThe Conversation — Europe · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Progressive group calls for Senate Dems to replace Schumer as leaderThe Hill · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Democratic progressive wing notches win in California Central ValleyAl Jazeera English · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- California progressive Randy Villegas wins redrawn House seat for DemocratsThe Guardian World · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Democratic wins ignite centrist-progressive fight over path to 2028The Hill · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- The new Congress may struggle to push a progressive agendaAl Jazeera English · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Abdul El-Sayed: The progressive’s progressThe Hindu — International · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Progressive Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate race to become first Muslim US senatorThe Guardian World · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Republican Ashley Moody defeats progressive Angie Nixon in Florida Senate raceThe Guardian World · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Progressive Bulgaria: Gas Price Hike Will Not Affect Household Electricity and Heating BillsNovinite — Sofia News Agency (BG, EN) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Mamdani’s progressive allies vie for seats in CongressAl Jazeera — World · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Progressive newcomer shakes up New Zealand politics, evoking Jacinda ArdernThe Straits Times — Asia · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- From Politics to Process: Evidence from Progressive Era Naturalizations -- by Abhay Aneja, Guo XuNBER — New Working Papers · 19 Oct 2026 · EN
- The Christian progressive who could flip Texas : James Talarico on Trump , Gaza and a rSurge — GDELT DOC · 17 Oct 2026 · RO
- How Gina Hinojosa went from progressive to populist , emerging as Greg Abbott most formidable challenger – The Gilmer MirrorSurge — GDELT DOC · 17 Oct 2026 · RO
- Progressive Christianity Watch : Boy Band Theology ?Surge — GDELT DOC · 17 Oct 2026 · RO
- AOC transfers $1m to Michigan candidate El-Sayed in progressive pushAl Jazeera English · 16 Oct 2026 · EN
- Progressive team takes control of Social Security BoardBangkok Post · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
- Progressive CharlestownSurge — GDELT DOC · 10 Oct 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report02 Nov 2026
- Current report14 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report03 Aug 2026
- Current report15 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / The Progressive Corporation · 02 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / The Progressive Corporation · 03 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Progressive Corporation · 14 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.