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olivLaw · US equity research

NextDecade Corporation NEXT

Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution · SIC 4923 · Vertical: Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution (SIC 4923)

6.25USD−6.72% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

NextDecade is building an LNG liquefaction and export facility near Brownsville, Texas, with five trains under construction and expected capacity of about 30 MTPA. First LNG from Train 1 is expected in the first half of 2027, so the company remains in construction and development with no operating revenue yet.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) stock was 6.25 USD (−6.72% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.7 bn USD, P/E 129.9 on diluted EPS of 0.05 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.59, 52-week range 4.80–9.12 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 0 USD, net income of 573.8 m USD, diluted EPS 0.54 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.7 bn USD
shares as of 23 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
129.9
Diluted EPS TTM 0.05 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
0.77%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.59
Volatility (1y) 62%
52-week range
4.809.12

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
44.3
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
5.71 – 7.23
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.36 · band width 23.6%
SMA 50 / 200
6.81 / 6.97
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.01 / -0.06
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−4.9%−1.1%−3.8 pp—
3 months−2.6%−0.5%−2.2 pp—
6 months−16.4%+4.4%−20.8 pp—
Year to date+18.6%+12.3%+6.3 pp—
1 year+4.6%+13.5%−8.9 pp+3.8%
3 years+40.1%+76.4%−36.3 pp+35.8%
5 years+66.7%+63.7%+3.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−35.2%
15 May 2026 → 22 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−60.0%
18 Jul 2025 → 12 Jan 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+10.8%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
0 USD
unavailable YoY
Net income
573.8 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
0.54
unavailable YoY
net / operating
unavailable / unavailable

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue00000000
Research & development956.0 k307.0 k1.2 m2.9 m3.6 m2.1 m2.9 m2.2 m
Operating income-44.3 m-51.9 m-56.3 m-72.0 m-45.8 m-55.1 m-54.6 m-82.9 m
Depreciation & amortisation3.2 m3.1 m393.0 k393.0 k10.7 m3.0 m7.9 m18.5 m
Interest expense20.1 m27.2 m31.6 m40.3 m70.9 m79.2 m90.8 m69.3 m
Income tax—0000000
Net income481.4 m-245.2 m-70.6 m-184.8 m71.0 m-195.0 m-60.2 m573.8 m
Diluted EPS1.85 ≈-0.34-0.23-0.420.27 ≈-0.51-0.250.54
Operating cash flow-8.9 m-68.8 m-3.9 m ≈-76.0 m ≈-20.7 m-110.8 m-17.2 m ≈111.4 m ≈
Capex694.6 m770.0 m731.6 m ≈1.4 bn ≈2.0 bn1.2 bn980.7 m ≈1.2 bn ≈
Share repurchases125.0 k49.0 k42.0 k ≈15.5 m ≈1.4 m18.0 k0 ≈4.7 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 80 percentile of its own 5-quarter history (min 5.7, median 8.5, max 132.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue00000000
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Net income-42.0 m-35.9 m-14.3 m-22.0 m-60.1 m-221.6 m277.4 m-429.6 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable−254.9%
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailable-0.34-0.65-0.94-0.24-1.17
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Free cash flow-41.9 m-61.0 m-58.6 m-30.1 m-73.8 m-1.8 bn-2.7 bn-5.0 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
143.8 m USD
Financial debt
8.5 bn USD
Net debt
8.4 bn USD
Equity
2.3 bn USD
Total assets
12.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
3.70x
Current ratio
0.54x
ROE
-21.2%
ROA
-4.6%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
4.9 m
2024
8.3 m
2025
8.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-122.7 m
2024
-171.1 m
2025
-225.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
6.3 m
2024
12.7 m
2025
12.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-116.4 m ≈
2024
-158.4 m ≈
2025
-213.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
50.3 m
2024
87.5 m
2025
170.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
—
2024
—
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-221.6 m
2024
277.4 m
2025
-429.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.94
2024
-0.24
2025
-1.17

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
194.6 m
2024
258.5 m
2025
262.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
38.2 m
2024
148.1 m
2025
143.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
314.5 m
2024
412.6 m
2025
718.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
2.4 bn
2024
5.0 bn
2025
10.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
3.3 bn
2024
6.4 bn
2025
12.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
243.1 m
2024
244.6 m
2025
443.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2023verified

Long-term debt
2023
1.8 bn
2024
3.9 bn
2025
8.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
552.4 m
2024
595.1 m
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
2.6 bn
2024
4.7 bn
2025
10.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
740.4 m
2024
1.7 bn
2025
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-73.6 m
2024
-95.6 m
2025
-169.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
1.7 bn
2024
2.6 bn
2025
4.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-1.8 bn ≈
2024
-2.7 bn ≈
2025
-5.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.8 bn
2024
-2.6 bn
2025
-4.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
2.1 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
5.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
9.6 m
2024
6.7 m
2025
16.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
-254.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
insufficient data
EBIT margin
unavailable
insufficient data
Net margin
unavailable
insufficient data
FCF margin
unavailable
insufficient data

Returns

ROE
292.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
2.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
-1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
-1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
11.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
107.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
-0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-37.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
5.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
-5.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
-1,379.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
13.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
4.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
129.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
15.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
unavailable
insufficient data
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-319.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
-0.11
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

6.25 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
129.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
15.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
292.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
unavailable
insufficient data
Revenue growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

26/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 23 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 1240derived 99

Score by group

52% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
0.64
USD per share
Mid
0.76
USD per share
High
0.91
USD per share
Price: 6.25 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -87.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -723.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.64 – 0.91 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/E0.64 – 0.91 (Mid 0.76)
    4 companies used · median multiple 15.8x · quartiles 13.4x – 19.0x
    CPK, OKE, RGCO, SWX
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution (SIC 4923)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-1.7%0 (vs peers)20%
Net margin · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
FCF conversion · Quality-1,379.1%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-0.8x0 (on a fixed band)12%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.4x0 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation129.9x0 (vs peers)20%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-319.8%0 (on a fixed band)16%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.4%5 (on a fixed band)12%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Quality0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial5/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

NEXTDECADE CORPORATION (NEXT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 0 USD in 2025; ROE 292.6%.

The estimated value range is 0.64–0.91 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.76 USD, the price of 6.25 USD leaves a potential of -87.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -723.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -1.7%
  • FCF conversion: -1,379.1%
  • Interest coverage: -0.8x
  • Current ratio: 0.4x
  • P/E (TTM): 129.9x
  • FCF yield: -319.8%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.4%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution (SIC 4923) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
129.9x
vertical median 17.8x
above median (+630.6%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 12.3x
P/S
—
vertical median 1.3x
P/B
15.0x
vertical median 2.0x
above median (+635.8%)
ROE
292.6%
vertical median 11.7%
above median (+2,401.9%)
Net margin
—
vertical median 9.4%
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 17.3%
Revenue YoY
—
vertical median 12.9%
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 4.1x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 3.6%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
OKEONEOK, Inc.55.9 bn13.817.9%9.4%+55.0%+22% / +29%
SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc.6.7 bn12.214.1%—+9.6%+11% / +56%
CPKChesapeake Utilities Corp3.4 bn22.69.5%15.1%+18.1%+2% / +48%
CTRICenturi Holdings, Inc.2.1 bn67.14.0%0.9%+13.1%−9% / unavailable
BIPCBrookfield Infrastructure Corporation1.7 bn——-6.6%+0.1%−16% / +24%
NEXTNextdecade Corporation1.7 bn129.9292.6%—unavailable+5% / +40%
RGCORGC Resources, Inc.248.3 m17.811.7%13.1%+12.6%+6% / +36%

1- and 3-year price returns: for NEXT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Scenarios are not available. input data missing

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

In brief

NextDecade is building an LNG liquefaction and export facility near Brownsville, Texas, with five trains under construction and expected capacity of about 30 MTPA. First LNG from Train 1 is expected in the first half of 2027, so the company remains in construction and development with no operating revenue yet 12.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has long-term SPAs with several creditworthy counterparties, providing a base of future contracted revenue 1. Trains 1 through 5 have signed contracts for most of their capacity, and the site benefits from gas access and an uncongested waterway 1.
  • Construction is carried out by an experienced contractor under lump-sum EPC contracts, which shift part of the cost and schedule risk to Bechtel 1. Physical progress on the first trains has been reported as in line with or ahead of schedule 12.
  • The company has financed Trains 4 and 5 through large project structures with established investment partners 1. This shows access to capital for the next stages of development 1.

Weaknesses

  • The company does not generate operating revenue until the facility becomes operational, which creates dependence on external financing 1. Substantial subsidiary debt could limit cash flow available for distributions 1.
  • NextDecade holds only a share of Phase 1, Train 4 and Train 5 distributions, and these can be constrained by partner priorities 1. The joint venture structure gives less control over operational decisions 1.
  • The number of employees is relatively small for the size of the project, making management of contractors critical 1. Reliance on third parties to complete the project is a structural vulnerability 1.

Opportunities

  • Expansion through Trains 6 through 8 could add significant capacity if permits and financing are obtained 12. Demand for new long-term contracts could support this expansion 1.
  • Selling early cargoes before long-term SPAs start could generate additional revenue in 2027-2028 1. A carbon capture and storage project could open a separate revenue stream if developed 1.
  • If global LNG markets remain firm, the company could negotiate better terms for volumes not yet covered by contracts 1.

Threats

  • Construction delays or cost increases could affect the timing of first LNG and cash flow 2. Higher interest rates could make refinancing of debt more expensive 1.
  • A challenge to the FERC authorization before the D.C. Circuit could delay the project if the decision is unfavorable 1. Legislative or environmental changes could add compliance costs 1.
  • Global competition from companies with greater resources could reduce the company's share of uncontracted volumes 1.

Risks

  • Substantial subsidiary debthigh

    The subsidiaries have taken on significant debt to build the Rio Grande LNG Facility, which could limit cash flow and compliance with financial covenants 1. Refinancing could take place at higher rates 1.

  • Dependence on project completionhigh

    Revenue is not expected until the first trains become operational, and delays could postpone distributions 12.

  • Need for additional financingmedium

    Additional financing is required for the expansion of Trains 6 through 8, which might not be available on acceptable terms 1.

  • Joint venture structure risksmedium

    Partners may have different interests, and the company has limited control over some decisions and the timing of distributions 1.

  • Litigation over FERC authorizationmedium

    The intervenors' petition before the D.C. Circuit remains pending, and its outcome could affect the project schedule 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If Trains 1 through 3 are completed on schedule, first LNG could begin generating early revenue under SPAs already signed 12.
  • Long-term contracts with creditworthy counterparties could provide stable revenue once the facility is operating 1.
  • Expansion through Trains 6 through 8 could substantially increase the initial capacity if permits and financing are secured 12.

What would break the thesis

  • Substantial subsidiary debt could limit distributions to shareholders, particularly if projects are delayed 1.
  • Progress on Trains 4 and 5 is still early, which could expose the company to cost increases or delays 2.
  • A decision by the D.C. Circuit could delay the project if the outcome is unfavorable 1.

What to watch

  • First gas into the facility and progress on Trains 1-3second half of 2026
  • First LNG from Train 1first half of 2027
  • Completion of the full FERC application for Trains 6-8 expansion2026
  • Outcome of the D.C. Circuit proceeding on the FERC authorizationnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

The business

NextDecade Corporation is a Houston-based energy company focused on constructing and developing a natural gas liquefaction and LNG export facility, the Rio Grande LNG Facility, on the north shore of the Brownsville Ship Channel in south Texas 1. Phase 1, Train 4 and Train 5 include five liquefaction trains with a total expected capacity of about 30 MTPA 1. The company does not expect to generate revenue from liquefaction until the facility is operational, so cash flow depends on completing the projects 1.

The company has long-term SPAs with 14 creditworthy counterparties for about 25.3 MTPA from Trains 1 through 5, with a weighted average term of 19.5 years 1. Pricing combines a fixed fee per MMBtu with a variable fee meant to cover expected natural gas costs 1. Trains 6 through 8 are in development and are wholly owned by NextDecade 1.

Segments

Trains 4 and 5

Final investment decisions for Trains 4 and 5 were taken in September and October 2025 1. By June 2026, Train 4 was 15.5% complete and Train 5 was 9.4% complete 2. NextDecade expects 40% of Train 4 distributions and 50% of Train 5 distributions, rising when partners earn a certain return 1.

Trains 6-8 and development

Trains 6 through 8 are in the permitting stage, and in May 2026 the company filed a formal FERC application for the expansion including Train 6 and an additional marine berth 2. The expansion would add about 18 MTPA once placed in operation 1. The company is also evaluating a potential carbon capture and storage project 1.

Market context

The global LNG market is served by liquefaction facilities worldwide, and NextDecade expects to sell output mainly under long-term contracts indexed to Henry Hub 1. The company has signed agreements with partners including Saudi Aramco, TotalEnergies, JERA, EQT and ConocoPhillips for volumes from Trains 4 and 5 1. Early cargoes for 2027-2028 are expected to achieve a margin of over 3.00 USD per MMBtu, though this depends on gas costs and the market 1.

Competition is global, and companies with longer operating histories and greater financial resources could affect NextDecade's relative position 1. Future results could depend on the company's ability to deliver projects on time and on budget, as well as on natural gas market conditions 1.

Trends

  • Long-term demand for US LNGtailwind

    Long-term SPAs averaging close to 20 years suggest buyers want stable LNG volumes 1. If global demand stays strong, it could support negotiation of new contracts for Trains 6 through 8 1.

  • Physical progress on Trains 1-3tailwind

    Physical progress on Trains 1 and 2 and on Train 3 is advanced, which could reduce the risk of delay to first LNG 2. If progress continues, the commissioning phase could start on schedule 2.

  • Large project financing requirementsmixed

    Trains 4 and 5 were financed through multi-billion dollar project structures with non-recourse debt and investment partners 1. High debt costs and capital market conditions could limit financing for future trains 1.

  • Regulatory uncertaintyheadwind

    The FERC authorization for the first five trains was reaffirmed after a remand, but intervenors have petitioned the D.C. Circuit to review it 1. An unfavorable decision could delay activities depending on the outcome 1.

Competitive position

NextDecade competes with liquefaction facilities worldwide to supply LNG to the global market, including independent technology-driven companies, state-owned companies, other independent oil and gas companies and utilities 1. Many of these competitors have longer operating histories, greater name recognition and substantially greater financial and technical resources 1.

The company cites advantages such as proximity to Permian Basin and Eagle Ford gas, access to an uncongested waterway and long-term contracts 1. If competitors expand capacity faster, the company's relative position could be affected 1.

  • Independent technology-driven LNG liquefaction companies

    Competitors offering liquefaction and LNG export capacity, described in the source by category without naming individual firms.

  • State-owned LNG companies

    State-backed competitors that can supply LNG to the global market, with larger resources and longer operating histories.

  • Other independent oil and natural gas companies

    Companies that may develop their own LNG chains and compete for the same buyers.

  • Utilities and integrated buyers

    Players that can trade long-term LNG and compete for the same contracts.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / NextDecade Corporation · 02 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / NextDecade Corporation · 30 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NextDecade Corporation · 28 Jul 2017

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.