olivLaw · US equity research
NeuroPace, Inc. NPCE
Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus · SIC 3841 · Vertical: Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841)
NeuroPace develops the RNS System, a closed-loop neuromodulation device that monitors the brain's electrical activity and intervenes in real time to prevent seizures in patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy. The company grew RNS revenue 21.3 percent in the second quarter of 2026 and raised its annual guidance, but it remains loss-making.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE) stock was 13.34 USD (+8.37% on the day), with market capitalisation 457.9 m USD, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 1.21, 52-week range 12.24–19.29 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 22.8 m USD (+17.1% YoY), net income of -6.2 m USD, diluted EPS -0.18 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.6
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 12.10 – 13.50
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.89 · band width 10.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 13.60 / 14.92
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.21 / -0.26
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.9% | −1.1% | +2.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −2.6% | −0.5% | −2.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −26.4% | +4.4% | −30.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −13.6% | +12.3% | −25.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +41.9% | +13.5% | +28.4 pp | −3.6% |
| 3 years | +86.1% | +76.4% | +9.6 pp | −16.1% |
| 5 years | −23.2% | +63.7% | −86.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 21.1 m | 21.5 m | 22.5 m | 19.5 m | 27.4 m | 26.6 m | 22.1 m | 22.8 m |
| Cost of revenue | 5.6 m | 5.3 m | 5.2 m | 3.3 m | 6.2 m | 6.0 m | 4.0 m | 3.9 m |
| Gross profit | 15.4 m | 16.2 m | 17.3 m | 16.2 m | 21.2 m | 20.6 m | 18.0 m | 18.9 m |
| Research & development | 5.8 m | 6.1 m | 7.4 m | 6.8 m | 6.6 m | 7.0 m | 7.2 m | 6.9 m |
| SG&A | 13.9 m | 13.8 m | 15.0 m | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | -4.2 m | -3.7 m | -5.1 m | -8.2 m | -2.6 m | -1.8 m | -5.6 m | -5.1 m |
| Interest expense | 2.2 m | 2.2 m | 2.2 m | 2.1 m | 1.6 m | 1.6 m | 1.5 m | 1.5 m |
| Income tax | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Net income | -5.5 m | -5.3 m | -6.6 m | -8.7 m | -3.5 m | -2.7 m | -6.7 m | -6.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.19 | -0.18 ≈ | -0.21 | -0.26 | -0.11 | -0.08 ≈ | -0.20 | -0.18 |
| Operating cash flow | -1.7 m ≈ | -4.8 m | -7.5 m | -2.1 m ≈ | -1.9 m ≈ | 506.0 k | -5.9 m | -3.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 100.0 k ≈ | 39.0 k | 37.0 k | 168.0 k ≈ | 30.0 k ≈ | 97.0 k | 117.0 k | 125.0 k ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 0 | 49.5 m | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 41.1 m | 45.2 m | 45.5 m | 65.4 m | 79.9 m | 100.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +9.8% | +0.7% | +43.7% | +22.1% | +25.1% |
| Net income | -24.3 m | -36.1 m | -47.1 m | -33.0 m | -27.1 m | -21.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -117.85 | -2.17 | -1.91 | -1.27 | -0.93 | -0.66 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -59.0% | -79.9% | -103.4% | -50.4% | -34.0% | -21.5% |
| Free cash flow | -21.7 m | -25.0 m | -37.5 m | -19.9 m | -18.3 m | -11.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 21.7 m USD
- Financial debt
- 58.9 m USD
- Net debt
- 37.2 m USD
- Equity
- 19.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 105.6 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 3.09x
- Current ratio
- 5.28x
- ROE
- -158.7%
- ROA
- -21.4%
- FCF margin
- -11.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 41.1 m | 45.2 m | 45.5 m | 65.4 m | 79.9 m | 100.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 10.9 m | 11.7 m | 13.0 m | 17.3 m | 20.8 m | 22.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 30.3 m | 33.4 m | 32.5 m | 48.1 m | 59.1 m | 77.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | 15.7 m | 18.2 m | 21.9 m | 20.8 m | 23.7 m | 27.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 27.6 m | 39.0 m | 51.3 m | 54.5 m | 57.1 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2025verified |
| Operating income | -13.1 m | -23.7 m | -40.8 m | -27.2 m | -21.7 m | -16.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 11.5 m | 7.4 m | 7.5 m | 8.5 m | 8.8 m | 7.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -24.3 m | -36.1 m | -47.1 m | -33.0 m | -27.1 m | -21.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -117.85 | -2.17 | -1.91 | -1.27 | -0.93 | -0.66 | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 204.1 k | 16.6 m | 24.6 m | 25.9 m | 29.1 m | 32.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 26.4 m | 19.2 m | 6.6 m | 18.1 m | 13.4 m | 21.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 8.4 m | 7.1 m | 7.5 m | 12.3 m | 12.9 m | 12.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Aug 2026verified |
| Inventories | 6.9 m | 7.8 m | 9.7 m | 11.2 m | 13.4 m | 14.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Aug 2026verified |
| Current assets | 54.6 m | 132.8 m | 97.7 m | 92.7 m | 81.3 m | 94.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 515.0 k | 603.0 k | 1.1 m | 1.0 m | 1.1 m | 1.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 56.0 m | 133.6 m | 114.1 m | 107.7 m | 94.6 m | 105.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 949.0 k | 1.4 m | 2.1 m | 2.3 m | 3.0 m | 1.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Aug 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.0 m | 0 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2022verified |
| Long-term debt | 50.8 m | 49.8 m | 52.9 m | 57.0 m | 59.5 m | 58.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 9.6 m | 9.3 m | 11.0 m | 16.2 m | 15.2 m | 17.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 62.4 m | 60.1 m | 79.3 m | 87.0 m | 86.6 m | 86.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | -147.8 m † | 73.5 m † | 34.8 m † | 20.7 m † | 8.0 m † | 19.0 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -21.6 m | -24.6 m | -36.9 m | -19.7 m | -17.9 m | -11.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 62.0 k | 384.0 k | 603.0 k | 173.0 k | 306.0 k | 332.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -21.7 m ≈ | -25.0 m ≈ | -37.5 m ≈ | -19.9 m ≈ | -18.3 m ≈ | -11.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -10.8 m | -85.4 m | 23.8 m | 23.0 m | 9.0 m | -332.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 55.0 m | 102.5 m | 490.0 k | 8.1 m | 4.3 m | 19.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | — | 0 | 49.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 457.9 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
50% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -22.3% | 11 (vs peers) | 21% |
| Net margin · Quality | -19.3% | 38 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 30.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -2.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 4.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -2.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality21/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NEUROPACE, INC. (NPCE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 100.0 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 25.1%; net margin -19.3%; ROE -122.1%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 30.0%
- Current ratio: 4.9x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -22.3%
- Interest coverage: -2.4x
- FCF yield: -2.5%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYKStryker Corp | 129.3 bn | 36.2 | 16.0% | 13.8% | +11.2% | −8% / +15% |
| MMM3m Company | 100.2 bn | 28.9 | 80.8% | 14.0% | +1.5% | +13% / +134% |
| BSXBoston Scientific Corporation | 66.4 bn | 19.4 | 14.3% | 16.6% | +19.9% | −55% / −18% |
| BDXBecton, Dickinson And Company | 57.0 bn | 63.2 | 3.8% | 4.0% | +8.2% | +37% / +13% |
| RMDResMed Inc. | 33.8 bn | 21.9 | 26.4% | 27.8% | +9.9% | −6% / +52% |
| DXCMDexcom, Inc. | 33.0 bn | 34.8 | 37.7% | 19.4% | +15.6% | +39% / −23% |
| WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 28.5 bn | 45.9 | 21.2% | 18.8% | +6.3% | +47% / +17% |
| GKOSGLAUKOS Corp | 14.6 bn | — | -22.8% | -24.6% | +32.3% | +132% / +286% |
| BAXBaxter International Inc. | 13.7 bn | — | -10.5% | -6.2% | +5.7% | +41% / −27% |
| PODDInsulet Corporation | 11.4 bn | 26.9 | 28.9% | 13.4% | +30.7% | −50% / −13% |
| TFXTeleflex Incorporated | 6.4 bn | — | -28.9% | -45.8% | +17.2% | +31% / −34% |
| HAEHaemonetics Corporation | 5.8 bn | 62.3 | 11.2% | 7.1% | −2.0% | +57% / +58% |
| ICUIIcu Medical Inc | 4.3 bn | 144.2 | 1.4% | 1.4% | −6.3% | +16% / +97% |
| LMATLemaitre Vascular, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 30.9 | 16.8% | 25.0% | +13.5% | +6% / +67% |
| KMTSKestra Medical Technologies, Ltd. | 1.8 bn | — | -73.7% | -140.4% | +59.0% | +13% / unavailable |
| IARTIntegra Lifesciences Holdings Corp | 1.2 bn | 88.3 | 1.2% | 0.8% | +1.5% | +13% / −62% |
| SIBNSi-Bone, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -7.7% | -6.2% | +20.2% | +28% / +32% |
| MDXGMimedx Group, Inc. | 467.0 m | — | -8.5% | -6.3% | +20.0% | −53% / −59% |
| NPCENeuropace, Inc. | 457.9 m | — | -122.1% | -19.3% | +25.1% | +42% / +86% |
| CARLCarlsmed, Inc. | 439.3 m | — | -6,196.9% | -57.4% | +85.9% | −1% / unavailable |
| BWAYBrainsway Ltd. | 439.0 m | 224.2 | 5.6% | 7.1% | +29.0% | +28% / +258% |
| OFIXOrthofix Medical Inc. | 395.9 m | — | -13.9% | -7.4% | +2.9% | −40% / −12% |
| CTSOCytosorbents Corporation | 286.6 m | — | -336.2% | -48.9% | +4.1% | −72% / −81% |
| UTMDUtah Medical Products, Inc. | 230.6 m | 22.1 | 8.8% | 29.0% | −5.8% | +29% / −14% |
| LUNGPulmonx Corporation | 123.2 m | — | -90.3% | -47.9% | +8.0% | +75% / −74% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NPCE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
NeuroPace develops the RNS System, a closed-loop neuromodulation device that monitors the brain's electrical activity and intervenes in real time to prevent seizures in patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy. The company grew RNS revenue 21.3 percent in the second quarter of 2026 and raised its annual guidance, but it remains loss-making.
SWOT
Strengths
- The RNS System is the only commercially available closed-loop neuromodulation device that also records brain data, an advantage that is hard to replicate 1.
- A high gross margin and steady RNS revenue growth suggest the sales model is working 3.
- Reimbursement for the implant and follow-up care is well established, and payor coverage is favourable 1.
Weaknesses
- The company depends almost entirely on a single product, which makes revenue sensitive to any market or regulatory problem.
- The company remains loss-making and carries term loan debt, which limits financial flexibility 2.
- Manufacturing takes place at a single facility, which raises the risk of operational interruption 1.
Opportunities
- Extending indications to generalized epilepsy and to children could open new patient populations if the FDA accepts the additional data 12.
- The community channel of epileptologists and neurosurgeons outside specialised centres could increase new implants 1.
- Collaborations with drug developers on biomarker data could generate additional revenue if they expand 1.
Threats
- Competition from larger neuromodulation makers and from surgery could reduce market share, especially in centres already used to other treatments 2.
- Regulatory delays or further FDA requests could postpone the launch of new indications 2.
- Supply difficulties with single-source component suppliers could affect production and deliveries 1.
Risks
- Dependence on a single producthigh
Revenue depends almost entirely on the RNS System, so any fall in adoption would directly affect financial results 1.
- Rejection of the indication extension requesthigh
The FDA has said the PMA-S for generalized epilepsy is not approvable in its current form, which could delay growth 2.
- Losses and funding needsmedium
The company reports net losses and carries debt; if cash flow does not improve, new financing could be needed 2.
- Single manufacturing sitemedium
Manufacturing is concentrated in one location, and production interruptions or quality problems could limit deliveries 1.
- Competition and pressure on personnellow
Larger competitors have superior resources and compete for qualified staff, which could slow growth 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Growth in RNS revenue and the raised annual guidance show that adoption in existing centres and in the community can continue 3.
- Long-term data, including the sustained median seizure reduction, supports the clinical case for the system 2.
- If the indication extension succeeds, the potential patient market becomes much larger than the current one 1.
What would break the thesis
- The company remains loss-making and depends on a single product, which makes results vulnerable to any slowdown 2.
- The preliminary rejection of the generalized epilepsy extension could delay the growth the company has signalled 2.
- Larger competitors and traditional treatments keep an entrenched patient base, which could limit market share 2.
What to watch
- Outcome of the SIR meeting with the FDA on the PMA-S for generalized epilepsy2026
- Delivery of the 2026 revenue guidance of 99.5 to 101.5 million USD2026
- Evolution of non-GAAP gross margin against the 82.0 to 83.0 percent rangenext 10-K
- Trend in cash and debt against the 51.7 million USD balanceQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
NeuroPace is a medical device company focused on patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy. Its RNS System continuously records brain activity, identifies patient-specific abnormal patterns and delivers stimulation only when needed, with about three minutes per day on average according to the annual report 1. As of December 31, 2025, over 8,000 patients had received the system 1.
The company aims to extend the indication to idiopathic generalized epilepsy and patients under 18, but in July 2026 the FDA said the PMA-S for generalized epilepsy is not approvable in its current form 2. This could delay market expansion if the agency's requests for further information are not resolved quickly.
Segments
RNS System (drug-resistant focal epilepsy)
The RNS System is indicated in the US for adults with drug-resistant focal epilepsy and accounts for practically all revenue. The battery has an estimated life of nearly 11 years, which creates a recurring replacement stream 1. RNS revenue grew 21.3 percent in the second quarter of 2026 3.
Clinical data and artificial intelligence
The company launched ECoG Assistant, the first of a planned suite of AI-based clinical decision support tools, built on its proprietary long-term intracranial EEG dataset 3. This area does not yet report separate revenue but supports the differentiation of the system from other neuromodulation devices.
Market context
The company estimates the total addressable market for drug-resistant focal epilepsy in the US at about 27 billion USD 1. According to the same source, about 575,000 adults in the US have this form of the disease 1. Expanding indications could enlarge the market, but there is not yet approval for generalized epilepsy patients.
The global drug-resistant epilepsy population is about 16.5 million patients, of which the US accounts for about 1.2 million 1. International expansion remains limited: Israel has a distributor with small sales, while Canada allows access only on a case-by-case basis 1.
Trends
- Adoption at Level 4 centres and in the communitytailwind
The 2023 PMA-S allows the company to target epileptologists and neurosurgeons outside Level 4 centres, expanding the potential market to all US adults with drug-resistant focal epilepsy 1. If this channel produces new volumes, growth could accelerate.
- Delay in extension to generalized epilepsyheadwind
The FDA requested additional information on the PMA-S for idiopathic generalized epilepsy, and the company noted that its revenue guidance excludes this indication 23. The delay could limit medium-term growth.
- High gross margin and cost controlmixed
Non-GAAP gross margin in the second quarter of 2026 was 83.4 percent 3, and annual guidance was raised. Operating costs could nevertheless rise as the commercial team and next-generation platform research scale up.
- Funding and debtheadwind
As of June 30, 2026, the company had 51.7 million USD in cash and short-term investments and 59.0 million USD of term loan debt 2. Continued losses and debt could require new financing, with dilution, if cash flow does not improve.
Competitive position
For adults with drug-resistant epilepsy there are two main alternatives: resective or ablative surgery and implantation of a neuromodulation device 2. Within neuromodulation, the company competes with two manufacturers that have longer operating histories, greater resources and established relationships with physicians and hospitals 2.
The main device competitors are vagus nerve stimulation and deep brain stimulation, both approved for the same population 1. The company argues that these devices stimulate a non-specific anatomical target and can cause memory and sleep side effects, but competition for personnel and market share remains intense 12.
- Vagus Nerve Stimulation (VNS)
Device approved for drug-resistant epilepsy patients who are not good surgical candidates; the company considers it less specific, with stimulation for several hours per day 1.
- Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS)
Device approved for epilepsy that stimulates one fixed location in the brain on a non-varying schedule; the source describes side effects similar to VNS 1.
- Resective or ablative surgery
Treatment long considered the best option for focal epilepsy, but carrying neurological risk and limited seizure freedom for a restricted group of patients 1.
- Other neuromodulation manufacturers
The source refers to two neuromodulation manufacturers with greater resources and entrenched clinic relationships, without naming them 2.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report11 Aug 2026
- Current report11 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report12 May 2026
- Current report12 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement21 Apr 2026
- Annual report03 Mar 2026
- Current report03 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / NeuroPace, Inc. · 03 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / NeuroPace, Inc. · 11 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NeuroPace, Inc. · 11 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.