olivLaw · US equity research
Onto Innovation Inc. ONTO
Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC · SIC 3829 · Vertical: Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC (SIC 3829)
Onto Innovation designs, makes and supports metrology and inspection tools for the semiconductor industry, used for process control and yield from silicon wafers through to advanced chip packaging. It matters now because demand linked to artificial intelligence pushed quarterly revenue to a record of $ million in the second quarter of 2026.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) stock was 184.82 USD (−8.68% on the day), with market capitalisation 9.1 bn USD, P/E 69.4 on diluted EPS of 2.66 USD over the last 12 months, beta 2.51, 52-week range 124.09–378.45 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 343.1 m USD (+35.3% YoY), net income of 60.1 m USD (+77.2% YoY), diluted EPS 1.21 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 31.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 164.09 – 288.65
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.17 · band width 55.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 258.78 / 260.66
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -21.50 / -19.34
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −43.2% | −1.1% | −42.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −33.0% | −0.5% | −32.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −37.1% | +4.4% | −41.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +17.1% | +12.3% | +4.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +43.1% | +13.5% | +29.6 pp | −33.4% |
| 3 years | +55.4% | +76.4% | −21.0 pp | −9.9% |
| 5 years | +99.1% | +63.7% | +35.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 252.2 m | 263.9 m | 266.6 m | 253.6 m | 218.2 m | 266.9 m | 291.9 m | 343.1 m |
| Cost of revenue | 115.8 m | 131.5 m | 123.4 m | 131.5 m | 107.6 m | 143.1 m | 145.6 m | 159.9 m |
| Gross profit | 136.4 m | 132.4 m | 143.2 m | 122.1 m | 110.6 m | 123.8 m | 146.4 m | 183.3 m |
| Research & development | 28.3 m | 32.0 m | 28.0 m | 35.3 m | 32.5 m | 36.2 m | 35.1 m | 38.9 m |
| Operating income | 53.1 m | 42.5 m | 63.1 m | 32.2 m | 23.7 m | 13.9 m | 33.5 m | 63.6 m |
| Pre-tax income | 61.0 m | 51.3 m | 71.7 m | 39.7 m | 32.0 m | 19.5 m | 38.1 m | 68.5 m |
| Income tax | 8.0 m | 2.5 m | 7.6 m | 5.8 m | 3.8 m | 9.0 m | 4.3 m | 8.4 m |
| Net income | 53.1 m | 48.8 m | 64.1 m | 33.9 m | 28.2 m | 10.5 m | 33.8 m | 60.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.07 | 0.98 ≈ | 1.30 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 0.21 ≈ | 0.67 | 1.21 |
| Operating cash flow | 67.2 m ≈ | 56.0 m | 92.0 m | 57.9 m ≈ | 83.4 m ≈ | 95.0 m | 26.3 m | 61.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 8.0 m ≈ | 4.6 m | 8.2 m | 13.8 m ≈ | 1.4 m ≈ | 5.1 m | 3.6 m | 3.7 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 25.1 m | 75.0 m | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | 205.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 71 percentile of its own 14-quarter history (min 15.1, median 61.0, max 142.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 255.1 m | 273.8 m | 305.9 m | 556.5 m | 1.0 bn | 815.9 m | 987.3 m | 1.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +15.4% | +7.3% | +11.7% | +81.9% | unavailable | −18.8% | +21.0% | unavailable |
| Net income | 32.9 m | 45.1 m | 223.3 m | 31.0 m | 223.3 m | 121.2 m | 201.7 m | 136.8 m |
| Net income YoY | −25.3% | +37.0% | +395.2% | −86.1% | unavailable | −45.7% | +66.5% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 1.27 | 1.74 | 0.06 | 0.63 | 4.49 | 2.46 | 4.06 | 2.78 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −27.4% | +37.0% | −96.6% | +950.0% | unavailable | −45.2% | +65.0% | unavailable |
| net % | 12.9% | 16.5% | 73.0% | 5.6% | 22.2% | 14.9% | 20.4% | 13.6% |
| Free cash flow | 54.0 m | 27.6 m | 11.3 m | 102.2 m | 118.3 m | 149.4 m | 213.8 m | 299.8 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 03 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 346.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 2.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 5.79x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 5.8%
- FCF margin
- 29.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 305.9 m | 556.5 m | 1.0 bn | 815.9 m | 987.3 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 170.9 m | 278.0 m | 466.0 m | 395.6 m | 472.0 m | 505.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 135.0 m | 278.5 m | 539.2 m | 420.3 m | 515.3 m | 499.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 48.4 m | 84.6 m | 112.0 m | 104.4 m | 113.9 m | 132.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -5.0 m | -26.7 m | 236.7 m | 116.1 m | 187.1 m | 132.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -597.0 k | -26.9 m | 241.6 m | 132.6 m | 220.4 m | 162.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -18.3 m | -4.2 m | 18.3 m | 11.4 m | 18.8 m | 26.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 223.3 m | 31.0 m | 223.3 m | 121.2 m | 201.7 m | 136.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.06 | 0.63 | 4.49 | 2.46 | 4.06 | 2.78 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 49.8 m | 49.5 m | 49.8 m | 49.3 m | 49.7 m | 49.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 130.7 m | 136.7 m | 175.9 m | 233.5 m | 212.9 m | 346.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Receivables | 123.7 m | 149.3 m | 241.4 m | 226.6 m | 308.1 m | 268.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 176.1 m | 191.2 m | 324.3 m | 327.8 m | 287.0 m | 298.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 641.7 m | 731.7 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 98.4 m | 92.0 m | 92.0 m | 103.6 m | 123.9 m | 127.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 315.8 m | 306.6 m | 315.8 m | 315.8 m | 330.0 m | 644.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 372.0 m | 222.2 m | 222.2 m | 167.4 m | 127.5 m | 298.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 27.7 m | 40.2 m | 54.5 m | 49.9 m | 56.3 m | 107.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 85.7 m | 120.1 m | 160.6 m | 147.7 m | 170.1 m | 218.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 184.6 m | 203.4 m | 198.4 m | 173.2 m | 191.2 m | 267.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.3 bn † | 1.3 bn † | 1.6 bn † | 1.7 bn † | 1.9 bn † | 2.1 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 18.1 m | 106.0 m | 136.7 m | 172.0 m | 245.7 m | 328.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 6.8 m | 3.8 m | 18.4 m | 22.6 m | 31.9 m | 28.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 11.3 m ≈ | 102.2 m ≈ | 118.3 m ≈ | 149.4 m ≈ | 213.8 m ≈ | 299.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 4.1 m | 48.6 m | -55.7 m | -103.4 m | -226.5 m | -121.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -4.2 m | -53.7 m | -68.4 m | -9.5 m | -35.7 m | -75.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 744.0 k | 52.0 m | 65.3 m | 3.2 m | 25.1 m | 75.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 9.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.8% | 75 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 190.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 7.2% | 60 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 4.2% | 28 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 9.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 69.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.8% | 35 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.3% | 32 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth44/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality88/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial32/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation15/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ONTO INNOVATION INC. (ONTO). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.0 bn USD in 2026; net margin 11.8%; ROE 6.8%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 11.8%
- FCF conversion: 190.4%
- Current ratio: 9.7x
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 4.2%
- P/E (TTM): 69.4x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC (SIC 3829) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMOThermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 261.6 bn | 37.3 | 13.4% | 14.9% | +3.9% | +20% / +42% |
| ROKRockwell Automation, Inc. | 49.3 bn | 41.6 | 34.5% | 13.4% | +0.9% | +12% / +61% |
| TRMBTrimble Inc. | 12.4 bn | — | -2.9% | -4.1% | −2.6% | −33% / +17% |
| ONTOOnto Innovation Inc. | 9.1 bn | 69.4 | 6.8% | 11.8% | unavailable | +43% / +55% |
| MIRMirion Technologies, Inc. | 336.9 m | 159.4 | 1.6% | 2.7% | +7.5% | −31% / +101% |
| OWLTOwlet, Inc. | 132.4 m | — | — | -7.7% | +35.4% | −66% / −10% |
| GEOSGeospace Technologies Corp | 51.0 m | — | -34.4% | -43.1% | −18.3% | −70% / −67% |
| BCHTBirchtech Corp. | 28.9 m | — | -134.4% | -21.7% | +1.3% | −75% / −78% |
| QSIQuantum-Si Incorporated | — | — | -49.1% | -6,138.3% | −20.3% | −9% / −20% |
| NIKINiki BioSolutions, Inc. | — | — | -6.2% | — | −66.7% | −87% / −90% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ONTO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 113.88 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 201.08 Total return 9% · Per year 9% | 302.54 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 116.62 Total return -37% · Per year -14% | 231.11 Total return 25% · Per year 8% | 380.91 Total return 106% · Per year 27% |
| 5 years | 119.42 Total return -35% · Per year -8% | 265.62 Total return 44% · Per year 8% | 479.57 Total return 159% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 57.78
- Net margin± 40.44
- Annual revenue growth± 32.36
- Annual dilution± 3.40
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Onto Innovation designs, makes and supports metrology and inspection tools for the semiconductor industry, used for process control and yield from silicon wafers through to advanced chip packaging. It matters now because demand linked to artificial intelligence pushed quarterly revenue to a record of $1 million in the second quarter of 2026 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- Broad portfolio of metrology, inspection and process control software, with a leadership position the company claims 1. Sustained investment in research and development, which rose in fiscal 2025 1. Backlog exceeded one billion dollars for the first time 3.
- Gross margin rose and results beat the high end of guidance in the second quarter of 2026, showing execution strength 3. Cash and short-term investments stood at about 1.88 billion dollars at quarter end 3.
- Integrated systems embedded in the fabrication process create high switching costs for customers and protect existing positions 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenue is concentrated among a few large customers whose reduced orders would significantly affect revenue and cash flows 1.
- New system sales are cyclical and depend on the timing of new node launches, which makes quarters hard to forecast 1.
- Gross margin fell in fiscal 2025 because of inventory write-downs and restructuring costs 1.
Opportunities
- AI-related demand for advanced nodes and advanced packaging could sustain growth 13. The shift from wafers to panels could open a new market for lithography and inspection 1.
- Integrating Semilab USA could extend the offer to SiC specialty devices and materials characterization 1.
- If customers keep multi-year growth plans, order visibility could remain high 3.
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
A small number of large customers account for a substantial part of revenue. If they buy less or delay large orders, cash flows could decline considerably 1.
- Industry cyclicalityhigh
Demand for semiconductor equipment has fallen substantially in the past and could fall again, directly affecting the company's sales 1.
- Export restrictions and tariffshigh
New export rules and tariffs have already reduced sales in China and could continue to affect operations, financial condition and results 1.
- Semilab USA integrationmedium
Integrating the acquisition could prove more difficult and costly than expected, and the anticipated benefits might not be achieved 1.
- Supply chainmedium
Components come from a limited group of suppliers, several of them sole sources. Delays or price increases could affect margins and deliveries 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Revenue growth, rising gross margin and a backlog above one billion dollars suggest that demand for advanced nodes and advanced packaging is solid 3.
- Its leadership in metrology and inspection, plus high switching costs for customers, could protect market share over the long term 1.
- Expansion into advanced packaging, panels and materials characterization could open new revenue sources if those markets keep growing 1.
What would break the thesis
- Revenue is cyclical and depends on investment by a few large customers, which can make quarterly results hard to anticipate 1.
- Export restrictions and trade tensions could reduce access to the Chinese market and raise costs 1.
- Gross margin fell in fiscal 2025, and integrating a large acquisition could slow the improvement in results 1.
What to watch
- Delivery against third-quarter 2026 revenue guidanceQ3 2026
- Trend in backlog and demand for advanced nodes2027
- Effect of new export rules on sales in Chinanext 10-K
- Semilab USA integration and realization of expected benefits2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Onto Innovation describes itself as a worldwide leader in the design, development, manufacture and support of metrology and inspection tools for the semiconductor industry, including optical metrology systems, macro defect inspection on patterned and panel substrates, lithography systems and process control analytical software 1. Its products are used mainly by silicon wafer manufacturers, IC fabricators and advanced packaging manufacturers, and its principal market is semiconductor capital equipment 1. Systems and software dominate revenue, representing 84% in fiscal 2025 1. The Semilab USA acquisition, completed in the fourth quarter of 2025, added product lines for wafer contamination monitoring, materials characterization and surface charge metrology 1.
The company reports one business segment, and its process control focus is on measuring the structure, composition and geometry of devices on silicon wafers to improve performance and manufacturing yields 1. Its products cover both front-end and back-end manufacturing, from critical dimension metrology to backside defect inspection before EUV lithography 1. Customers are concentrated in Asia, where most capacity investment occurs: Taiwan and South Korea together accounted for 60% of revenue in fiscal 2025 1.
The current momentum is driven by demand for advanced nodes and advanced packaging linked to AI applications. Advanced node sales tend to be cyclical because metrology is bought when new lines are set up, while advanced packaging sales follow assembly volumes 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported advanced node revenue up 50% sequentially to a new quarterly record 3.
Segments
Systems and software
This is the largest revenue source, including Atlas automated metrology systems, IMPULSE integrated metrology, Dragonfly inspection systems and AI Diffract software. It represented 84% of revenue in fiscal 2025 1. Inspection sales for packaging declined while metrology sales for advanced nodes rose 1.
Parts and services
This includes spare parts, maintenance contracts, system upgrades and billable service calls. Revenue rose in fiscal 2025 on customer spending for upgrades and repairs of existing systems 1. It is less cyclical than new system sales.
Semilab USA
The acquisition adds FAaST, CnCV and MBIR product lines for wafer contamination monitoring and materials characterization, including for SiC specialty devices. The company said it contributed revenue in fiscal 2025, and integration remains a risk 1.
Market context
The principal market is semiconductor capital equipment, with demand across logic, memory, advanced packaging and specialty devices such as LEDs, MEMS and CMOS image sensors 1. AI-related demand created new requirements for both advanced nodes and advanced packaging 1. Management expects demand trends to extend into 2027, though these are management views rather than certainties 3.
The industry is cyclical, and sales of metrology for new nodes concentrate in fab construction periods. Once yields stabilize, purchases shift toward additional capacity 1. This cycle explains why revenue can swing from quarter to quarter even when long-term demand stays high 1.
Trends
- AI-driven demandtailwind
AI applications have generated demand for advanced nodes and advanced packaging, including high-bandwidth memory, leading to new quarterly records 13. If this demand holds, it could support revenue growth in the second half of 2026.
- Shift to panel substratestailwind
Advanced packaging is moving from 300mm wafers to large rectangular panels, and the JetStep X500 and Firefly systems are positioned for this segment 1. Adoption could open a new market but is still in an early growth phase.
- Export restrictions on Chinaheadwind
New US export rules for semiconductor technology sold in China lowered sales in that region, which fell to 7% of revenue in fiscal 2025 from 12% a year earlier 1. The company has applied for licences but cannot control the outcome.
- Supply chain costs and tariffsmixed
Tariffs and supply chain imbalances raised material and logistics costs, and gross margin fell to 49.7% in fiscal 2025 partly due to inventory write-downs 1. The company reported a higher gross margin in the second quarter of 2026, but cost pressure remains a factor to monitor 3.
Competitive position
The company notes that some current and potential competitors have significantly greater resources, which could impair sales or force lower prices 1. However, the high cost of switching equipment vendors makes it difficult for rivals to win customers even when their systems are superior 1. The sources do not name competitors, so the list below reflects only the categories described.
- Metrology equipment makers with greater resources
The company says some current and potential competitors have significantly greater resources, without naming them in the source.
- Integrated equipment suppliers for wafer fabs
Integrated metrology systems are installed on wafer fabrication equipment from other suppliers, and a decline in those suppliers' sales or the development of competing systems could affect the company 1.
- Flat panel display lithography suppliers
The source notes the JetStep lithography system emerged from the flat panel display market, so competition from that field exists, without explicit names 1.
- Materials characterization instrument makers
The company enters materials characterization through the Semilab USA acquisition, where competition is fragmented and unnamed in the source 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Onto Innovation (ONTO) Bets $720M on X-Ray Chip TechnologyYahoo Finance — News · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
- Onto Innovation Director Lynch Sells 1,000 Shares for $302,300Yahoo Finance — News · 01 Sept 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report10 Aug 2026Acquisition or disposition of assets · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Item 3.02 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 May 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Apr 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-03 · SEC / Onto Innovation Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Onto Innovation Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Onto Innovation Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.