olivLaw · US equity research
Polibeli Group Ltd PLBL
Wholesale-Electrical Appliances, Tv & Radio Sets · SIC 5064 · Vertical: Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 506x)
Polibeli Group Ltd, a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands, provides digital supply chain services and distribution sales mainly through subsidiaries in Japan and Indonesia. The company reported revenues of 26.42 mn USD in fiscal 2025, down from the prior year, and a net loss of 5.97 mn USD, and it matters because it is trying to move small retailers' offline procurement onto digital platforms.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Polibeli Group Ltd (PLBL) stock was 5.45 USD (−3.71% on the day), with beta 0.40, 52-week range 5.11–11.75 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.3
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.28 – 5.66
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.45 · band width 6.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 5.59 / 7.27
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.05 / -0.07
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −3.9% | −1.1% | −2.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −11.5% | −0.5% | −11.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −23.2% | +4.4% | −27.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −50.3% | +12.3% | −62.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −32.0% | +13.5% | −45.5 pp | +56.5% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +77.1% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.8 m | 30.2 m | 26.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +32.6% | −12.6% |
| Net income | -6.7 m | -11.0 m | -6.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -29.5% | -36.3% | -22.6% |
| Free cash flow | -6.7 m | -5.7 m | -6.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 3.5 m USD
- Net debt
- 1.7 m USD
- Equity
- -45.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 17.5 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.88x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -31.0%
- FCF margin
- -24.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.8 m | 30.2 m | 26.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 21.8 m | 29.1 m | 24.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.0 m | 1.1 m | 1.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| SG&A | 4.1 m | 6.7 m | 6.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | -6.3 m | -9.6 m | -7.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 120.0 k | 250.6 k | 177.9 k | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -6.2 m ≈ | -9.3 m ≈ | -7.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -6.7 m | -11.0 m | -6.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 2.8 k | — | 9.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | -6.7 m | -11.0 m | -6.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.02 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 360.0 m | 360.0 m | 362.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.0 m | 2.6 m | 1.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 5.5 m | 8.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 4.3 m | 2.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 19.2 m | 16.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 298.7 k | 265.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 21.0 m | 17.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 760.3 k | 1.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 504.7 k | 3.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 17.8 k | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 12.9 m | 19.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 45.7 m | 63.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | -9.2 m | -24.6 m | -45.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -4.7 m | -5.5 m | -6.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.0 m | 119.3 k | 155.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -6.7 m ≈ | -5.7 m ≈ | -6.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.0 m | 1.7 m | 2.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 7.1 m | 3.7 m | 3.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
10% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -22.6% | 14 (vs peers) | 60% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 6 (on a fixed band) | 40% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial6/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial14/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Polibeli Group Ltd (PLBL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 26.4 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -12.6%; net margin -22.6%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -22.6%
- Current ratio: 0.9x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 506x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TELTe Connectivity PLC | 63.8 bn | 27.5 | 18.5% | 12.6% | +8.9% | −3% / +68% |
| WCCWESCO International, Inc. | 15.4 bn | 19.8 | 15.4% | 3.0% | +7.8% | +18% / +103% |
| ARWArrow Electronics, Inc. | 10.3 bn | 12.9 | 12.2% | 2.3% | +10.5% | +88% / +71% |
| AVTAvnet, Inc. | 7.0 bn | 21.4 | 6.7% | 1.2% | +24.5% | +80% / +83% |
| ITRNIturan Location & Control Ltd. | 1.1 bn | 18.2 | 28.8% | 16.1% | +6.8% | +33% / +98% |
| RELLRichardson Electronics, Ltd. | 211.2 m | 24.7 | 5.2% | 3.6% | +9.4% | +87% / +50% |
| DCMDeFi Capital Markets, Inc. | 10.0 m | — | -95.0% | -437.8% | −79.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| PLBLPolibeli Group Ltd | — | — | — | -22.6% | −12.6% | −32% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PLBL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 24 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (19 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (21 Sept 2026), 6-K (07 Aug 2026), 6-K (15 Jul 2026), 6-K (02 Jul 2026).
In brief
Polibeli Group Ltd, a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands, provides digital supply chain services and distribution sales mainly through subsidiaries in Japan and Indonesia. The company reported revenues of 26.42 mn USD in fiscal 2025, down from the prior year, and a net loss of 5.97 mn USD, and it matters because it is trying to move small retailers' offline procurement onto digital platforms.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a deep local presence in several countries and established relationships with brands and suppliers, allowing it to offer a broad product range.
- An integrated digital platform with dedicated apps for small retailers offers a simplified procurement process and useful demand data.
- The goods trading model in the core segment improved its gross margin in fiscal 2025 compared with the prior year.
Weaknesses
- The company has reported net losses in recent years and cannot guarantee that it will reach profitability in the future.
- General and administrative costs are high relative to revenue, and expected credit losses rose sharply in 2025.
- Revenue fell in 2025 compared with 2024, indicating difficulty converting operational growth into stable revenue.
Opportunities
- Growth in cross-border trade and demand for international products could open new customers and regions.
- Digitalisation of procurement in Southeast Asia could expand the base of merchants using the platform.
- Higher-margin business customers that the company has started to target could improve profitability if the strategy succeeds.
Threats
- Competition from digital platforms and traditional distributors could reduce margins and market share.
- Weaker economic conditions in local markets could reduce spending by small retailers, the main customers.
- Regulatory changes or failure to comply with local laws could lead to sanctions and affect international operations.
Risks
- Dependence on attracting and retaining customershigh
If the company fails to attract and keep small retailers, revenues could decline and results could be materially affected 1.
- Recurring net losseshigh
The company has reported losses in recent years and gives no assurance that it will reach profitability, which could limit its ability to fund operations 1.
- Credit risk on customersmedium
The sharp rise in expected credit loss charges in 2025 shows that collecting receivables from small customers could be difficult 1.
- International expansionmedium
Operating across several countries exposes the company to regulatory risks and to the possibility that some new markets do not justify the investment 1.
- Reliance on third partiesmedium
The platform depends on logistics providers and payment processors, and problems at these partners could affect deliveries and customer experience 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If digital adoption among small retailers in Southeast Asia accelerates, the Polibeli platform could benefit from an early-mover position and the local network built in Indonesia 1.
- The improvement in gross margin in the core segment during 2025 suggests that the product mix strategy and higher-value customers could support profitability 1.
- Relationships with suppliers and international brands could allow the range to expand and entry into new markets at lower cost 1.
What would break the thesis
- Repeated net losses and lower revenue in 2025 show the business model is not yet profitable and could require additional financing 1.
- The sharp rise in expected credit loss charges may indicate quality problems in the customer base, which could weigh on future results 1.
- The digital procurement market in Indonesia is still unproven over the long term, and if adoption stays slow, the investment could fail to deliver the expected return 1.
What to watch
- Trend in goods trading revenue and gross marginQ1 2027
- Level of expected credit losses and collection of receivables2027
- Progress of Polibeli Platform adoption in Indonesia and the number of active merchants2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 24 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (19 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (21 Sept 2026), 6-K (07 Aug 2026), 6-K (15 Jul 2026), 6-K (02 Jul 2026).
The business
The principal business is global goods trading: the company procures products directly from suppliers and sells them mostly to small and medium-sized retailers, and in some regions also to large retailers or distributors 1. Operations are concentrated in Japan and Indonesia, with a presence also in Singapore, Korea, the US, France, Hong Kong and Italy 1. Besides goods sales, the group offers warehousing, logistics, brand operations and promotion services that complement the core model 1.
The Polibeli Platform, made up of the Polibeli App and Polisales App, was launched in Indonesia in 2022 and 2023 and lets small retailers buy a wide range of products in one place, with delivery and payment support 1. The company built these apps after noticing that Indonesia's fragmented retail market was difficult to supply 1.
Structurally, Polibeli Group Ltd is a holding company without operations of its own, incorporated in the Cayman Islands in March 2024, which completed its business combination with Chenghe on August 7, 2025 1. The principal executive office is in Jakarta and the shares are listed in the United States 1.
Market context
The company operates in emerging Southeast Asian markets as well as in developed markets such as Japan, where retailers look for diverse international products 1. In Indonesia the consumer market has grown quickly, but small retailers, who mainly operate offline, remain the main points of purchase and play a very important role 1. The company describes the digital supply chain services market in Indonesia as still at an early stage, with uncertain developments 1.
Management sees the growth in cross-border trade, fed by online platforms and consumer demand for diverse and cost-effective products, as a factor that could support the group's volumes 1. That development could however slow if small retailers do not adopt digital channels quickly 1.
Trends
- Growth in cross-border tradetailwind
Consumers increasingly seek international products, and retailers procure them through digital providers, which could support growth in the global goods trading business 1.
- Digitalisation of procurement in Indonesiamixed
The move of small retailers from offline purchasing to digital platforms has not yet been tested over the long term, so growth could accelerate if adoption spreads 1.
- Pressure on SME spendingheadwind
Weaker economic conditions could reduce spending by small customers, who are more sensitive to economic changes than larger businesses, and could affect revenues 1.
- Costs of expanding into new regionsheadwind
Expansion into new product categories and countries requires investment and pressures margins, and if results fall short of expectations the group could reduce its investments 1.
Competitive position
The sources position the company against other wholesale procurement platforms and traditional distributors in its markets, but do not name individual competitors, and describe competition as intense 1. The company says its advantage comes from its local network and its collaborations with brands and suppliers 1.
The digital procurement market is still forming, which makes the competitive position hard to measure over the long term, especially in Indonesia 1. If rivals or traditional distributors accelerate their digitalisation, the group's margins and market share could be affected 1.
- Local digital procurement platforms
Competitors offering online ordering for small retailers, referenced implicitly in the competition discussion of the source.
- Traditional wholesale distributors
Physical wholesale markets and local distributors from which small retailers bought before digitalisation.
- Suppliers and brands selling direct
Manufacturers and brand owners that can distribute their products directly in emerging markets without an intermediary.
- E-commerce operators
E-commerce platforms competing for the same merchants and consumers, particularly in Hong Kong and Italy.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)19 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)12 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)08 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 May 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)24 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Polibeli Group Ltd · 24 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.