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olivLaw · US equity research

T-Mobile US, Inc. TMUS

Radiotelephone Communications · SIC 4812 · Vertical: Radiotelephone Communications (SIC 4812)

159.17USD+3.08% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) is one of the three largest wireless operators in the US and keeps its position through its 5G network and value offer. In the second quarter of 2026, service revenues grew 9% year-over-year to 19.0 billion USD, and Core Adjusted EBITDA reached 9.5 billion USD, up 12%. The 2026 guidance remains elevated, but execution depends on competition, the UScellular integration and network costs.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) stock was 159.17 USD (+3.08% on the day), with market capitalisation 168.6 bn USD, P/E 15.4 on diluted EPS of 10.37 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.66%, beta 0.06, 52-week range 146.54–221.98 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 23.6 bn USD (+7.4% YoY), net income of 3.5 bn USD (+27.3% YoY), diluted EPS 3.22 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
168.6 bn USD
shares as of 23 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.4
Diluted EPS TTM 10.37 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
6.51%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.66%
DPS 12m 4.23
Beta (2y)
0.06
Volatility (1y) 35%
52-week range
146.54221.98

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
51.4
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
142.53 – 166.63
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.69 · band width 15.6%
SMA 50 / 200
165.66 / 186.53
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-2.83 / -4.19
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−3.3%−1.1%−2.2 pp—
3 months−8.2%−0.5%−7.8 pp—
6 months−17.6%+4.4%−22.0 pp—
Year to date−21.6%+12.3%−33.9 pp—
1 year−22.8%+13.5%−36.4 pp+18.3%
3 years+7.9%+76.4%−68.5 pp+29.1%
5 years+29.8%+63.7%−33.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−34.0%
24 Feb 2026 → 23 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−46.3%
03 Mar 2025 → 23 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+5.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
23.6 bn USD
+7.4% YoY
Net income
3.5 bn USD
+27.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.22
+33.6% YoY
net / operating
14.6% / 24.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue21.9 bn20.9 bn21.1 bn22.0 bn24.3 bn23.1 bn22.8 bn23.6 bn
SG&A5.4 bn5.5 bn5.4 bn6.0 bn6.6 bn6.0 bn5.8 bn6.0 bn
Operating income4.6 bn4.8 bn5.2 bn4.5 bn3.7 bn4.5 bn5.5 bn5.7 bn
Depreciation & amortisation3.1 bn3.2 bn3.1 bn3.4 bn3.8 bn3.8 bn3.4 bn3.5 bn
Pre-tax income3.8 bn3.8 bn4.3 bn3.5 bn2.6 bn3.3 bn4.3 bn4.5 bn
Income tax858.0 m885.0 m1.1 bn814.0 m532.0 m830.0 m1.1 bn1.1 bn
Net income3.0 bn3.0 bn3.2 bn2.7 bn2.1 bn2.5 bn3.2 bn3.5 bn
Diluted EPS2.57 ≈2.582.842.411.89 ≈2.272.993.22
Operating cash flow5.5 bn6.8 bn7.0 bn7.5 bn6.7 bn7.2 bn7.5 bn7.3 bn
Capex2.2 bn2.5 bn2.4 bn2.6 bn2.5 bn2.6 bn2.7 bn2.3 bn
Dividends paid1.0 bn1.0 bn996.0 m987.0 m1.1 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn
Share repurchases4.7 bn2.5 bn2.6 bn2.5 bn2.4 bn4.8 bn2.3 bn2.4 bn

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 9 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 11.0, median 23.9, max 110.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue43.3 bn45.0 bn68.4 bn80.1 bn79.6 bn78.6 bn81.4 bn88.3 bn
Revenue YoY+6.7%+3.9%+52.0%+17.1%−0.7%−1.3%+3.6%+8.5%
Net income2.9 bn3.5 bn3.1 bn3.0 bn2.6 bn8.3 bn11.3 bn11.0 bn
Net income YoY−36.3%+20.1%−11.6%−1.3%−14.4%+221.1%+36.3%−3.1%
Diluted EPS3.364.022.652.412.066.939.669.72
Diluted EPS YoY−35.4%+19.6%−34.1%−9.1%−14.5%+236.4%+39.4%+0.6%
net %6.7%7.7%4.5%3.8%3.3%10.6%13.9%12.4%
Free cash flow-1.6 bn433.0 m-2.4 bn1.6 bn2.8 bn8.8 bn13.5 bn18.0 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
5.6 bn USD
Financial debt
86.3 bn USD
Net debt
80.7 bn USD
Equity
59.2 bn USD
Total assets
219.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.46x
Current ratio
1.00x
ROE
18.2%
ROA
5.1%
FCF margin
20.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
78.6 bn
2024
81.4 bn
2025
88.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
21.3 bn
2024
20.8 bn
2025
23.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
14.3 bn
2024
18.0 bn
2025
18.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
12.8 bn
2024
12.9 bn
2025
13.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
27.1 bn ≈
2024
30.9 bn ≈
2025
31.8 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2022verified

Pre-tax income
2023
11.0 bn
2024
14.7 bn
2025
14.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
2.7 bn
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
8.3 bn
2024
11.3 bn
2025
11.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
6.93
2024
9.66
2025
9.72

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.65
2024
3.71
2025
3.80

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
5.1 bn
2024
5.4 bn
2025
5.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
4.7 bn
2024
4.3 bn
2025
4.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
19.0 bn
2024
18.4 bn
2025
24.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
40.4 bn
2024
38.5 bn
2025
38.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
12.2 bn
2024
13.0 bn
2025
13.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.5 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
207.7 bn
2024
208.0 bn
2025
219.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
10.4 bn
2024
8.5 bn
2025
10.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
3.6 bn
2024
4.1 bn
2025
5.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
71.4 bn
2024
74.2 bn
2025
81.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
20.9 bn
2024
20.2 bn
2025
24.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
64.7 bn †
2024
61.7 bn †
2025
59.2 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
18.6 bn
2024
22.3 bn
2025
28.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
9.8 bn
2024
8.8 bn
2025
10.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
8.8 bn ≈
2024
13.5 bn ≈
2025
18.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-5.8 bn
2024
-9.1 bn
2025
-17.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-12.1 bn
2024
-12.8 bn
2025
-10.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
747.0 m
2024
3.3 bn
2025
4.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
13.1 bn
2024
11.2 bn
2025
10.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
8.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
1.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-3.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
61.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
29.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
0.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
67.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
29.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
33.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
36.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
20.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
12.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
19.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
19.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
5.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
24.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
10.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
40.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
23.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
723.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
28.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
10.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
18.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
165.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
84.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
20 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
168.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
169.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
14.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
6.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
3.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
8.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
1.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
9.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
11.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
9.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 74 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

159.17 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 168.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
168.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
3.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
19.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
12.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
8.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 23 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 28 Oct 2026
verified 2874derived 196

Score by group

  • Valuation81
  • Balance sheet31
  • Quality89
  • Growth65
  • Returns100

Estimated value range

Low
102.08
USD per share
Mid
140.61
USD per share
High
209.34
USD per share
Price: 159.17 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -11.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -13.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 49.94 – 214.24 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA135.55 – 214.24 (Mid 140.61)
    3 companies used · median multiple 4.4x · quartiles 4.3x – 6.7x
    AD, CHT, IHS
  • Peers: P/E102.08 – 209.34 (Mid 140.85)
    5 companies used · median multiple 13.6x · quartiles 9.8x – 20.2x
    AD, IHS, KYIV, SPOK, TIGO
  • Dividend discount (DDM)49.94 – 67.16 (Mid 57.28)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Radiotelephone Communications (SIC 4812)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 74/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality24.5%100 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality12.0%58 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality165.0%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth3.5%29 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth67.7%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.0x40 (vs peers)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.9x9 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation15.4x57 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation5.0x91 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation11.1%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns9.8%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns23.8%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet31/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth65/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality89/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

T-MOBILE US, INC. (TMUS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 88.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.5%; net margin 12.0%; ROE 19.4%; net debt/EBITDA 0.0x.

The estimated value range is 102.08–209.34 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 140.61 USD, the price of 159.17 USD leaves a potential of -11.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -13.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 74/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 24.5%
  • FCF conversion: 165.0%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 67.7%
  • EV/EBITDA: 5.0x
  • FCF yield: 11.1%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 9.8%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 23.8%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.5%
  • Current ratio: 0.9x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.

Versus the vertical median

Radiotelephone Communications (SIC 4812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
15.4x
vertical median 20.2x
below median (−24.0%)
EV/EBITDA
5.0x
vertical median 4.4x
above median (+13.1%)
P/S
1.8x
vertical median 2.7x
below median (−33.9%)
P/B
3.0x
vertical median 2.3x
above median (+27.7%)
ROE
19.4%
vertical median 10.4%
above median (+85.7%)
Net margin
12.0%
vertical median 9.9%
above median (+21.7%)
EBIT margin
20.7%
vertical median 16.6%
above median (+24.1%)
Revenue YoY
8.5%
vertical median 1.9%
above median (+337.9%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.0x
vertical median -0.0x
above median
Dividend yield
2.7%
vertical median 5.3%
below median (−50.1%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd.380.0 bn326.59.4%16.2%−3.8%+17% / +29%
TMUST-Mobile Us, Inc.168.6 bn15.419.4%12.0%+8.5%−23% / +8%
VEONVEON Ltd.146.1 bn263.448.5%13.4%+9.9%+48% / +294%
TIGOMillicom International Cellular SA13.0 bn9.836.2%22.6%+0.3%+45% / +357%
KYIVKyivstar Group Ltd.3.1 bn23.910.4%10.7%+25.9%−4% / unavailable
ADArray Digital Infrastructure, Inc.2.9 bn5.418.3%250.8%+58.3%−32% / −27%
IHSIHS Holding Ltd2.8 bn20.2—9.1%+3.6%+19% / +82%
SPOKSpok Holdings, Inc.252.6 m13.612.8%13.9%+1.5%−9% / −28%
SIDUSidus Space, Inc.18.7 m—-27.0%-970.3%−27.6%+49% / −82%
CHAICore Ai Holdings, Inc.3.6 m—-1,196.1%-57.2%+58.6%−93% / −100%
SKMSK Telecom Co., Ltd.——10.8%7.0%+1.9%+55% / +39%
TUTelus Corp——7.1%5.4%+0.6%−30% / −49%
VODVodafone Group Public Ltd Co——-7.4%-11.1%+2.0%+31% / +80%

1- and 3-year price returns: for TMUS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
95.87
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
169.57
Total return 9% · Per year 9%
255.53
Total return 64% · Per year 64%
3 years
91.25
Total return -36% · Per year -14%
181.77
Total return 23% · Per year 7%
301.00
Total return 100% · Per year 26%
5 years
86.84
Total return -35% · Per year -8%
194.84
Total return 38% · Per year 7%
354.57
Total return 143% · Per year 19%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 45.44
  • Net margin± 31.81
  • Annual revenue growth± 26.35
  • Annual dilution± 2.67

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).

In brief

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) is one of the three largest wireless operators in the US and keeps its position through its 5G network and value offer. In the second quarter of 2026, service revenues grew 9% year-over-year to 19.0 billion USD 2, and Core Adjusted EBITDA reached 9.5 billion USD, up 12% 3. The 2026 guidance remains elevated, but execution depends on competition, the UScellular integration and network costs.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a strong network position and 5G coverage recognized by independent awards, which supports customer loyalty 1.
  • Operating cash flow is solid and grew in the first half of 2026, supporting buybacks and dividends 2.
  • A multilayer spectrum portfolio gives flexibility for both broadband and mobile network needs 1.

Weaknesses

  • Substantial indebtedness limits financial flexibility and can make debt service more sensitive to market conditions 2.
  • Integrating acquisitions such as UScellular involves restructuring costs and execution risks that could delay expected benefits 1.
  • Reliance on third-party providers for critical systems and services exposes the company to operational and security risks 1.

Opportunities

  • Expanding fixed 5G broadband and fiber could open new revenue streams within households 1.
  • Digitalization and AI could reduce service costs and grow online sales if customer adoption is strong 1.
  • Synergies from the UScellular integration could improve margins if achieved at the expected level 1.

Threats

  • Intensifying competition from carriers and cable providers could pressure pricing and margins 1.
  • Cyberattacks and security incidents could affect customer data, reputation and financial results 1.
  • Regulatory changes and litigation could add costs or limit offerings if adverse decisions occur 1.

Risks

  • Intense competitionhigh

    If the company fails to attract and retain customers, growth and competitive position could be affected 1.

  • Cybersecurityhigh

    Past attacks and data incidents show that breaches can be costly and damage reputation, and threats keep evolving 1.

  • Digital and technology executionmedium

    If digital transformation or adoption of new network technologies is delayed, the network leadership position could erode 1.

  • Indebtedness and access to capitalmedium

    Substantial debt and credit market conditions could limit access to financing and raise refinancing costs 2.

  • Regulation and licenseslow

    Changes in FCC rules and the revocation or non-renewal of spectrum licenses could affect operations 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Growth in service revenues and EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026 suggests the value and network strategy is working 3.
  • Raised adjusted free cash flow guidance could support buybacks and dividends if the trend holds 3.
  • Fixed broadband and fiber offer a growth path beyond mobile telephony that competitors cannot easily replicate 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Net new postpaid accounts declined year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026 as the market approaches saturation 3.
  • The UScellular integration and other acquisitions carry costs and execution risks that could reduce expected benefits 1.
  • High indebtedness and competitive pressure could limit financial flexibility and long-term margins 2.

What to watch

  • Net postpaid account additions versus the 2026 guidanceQ3 2026
  • Pace of UScellular integration synergies2027
  • Capital expenditure level against the guidance of about 10 billion USDnext 10-K
  • Changes to adjusted free cash flow guidanceQ3 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).

The business

Beyond telephony, TMUS offers fixed 5G broadband and fiber through joint ventures such as Lumos and Metronet. The UScellular acquisition, completed August 1, 2025 with 2.8 billion USD in cash 2, and the Vistar and Blis deals extend its advertising and data solutions. The company expects annual run-rate cost synergies of 1.2 billion USD from the integration 1.

Substantially all revenues are earned in the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands 1. The company employed about 75,000 people at the end of 2025 1. It is controlled by Deutsche Telekom AG, whose interests may differ from those of other stockholders 2.

Segments

Postpaid wireless services

The postpaid segment generates most service revenues and grew fastest in the second quarter of 2026, with revenues of 15.9 billion USD, up 13% year-over-year 3. Postpaid ARPA was 152.91 USD, up 2% 3.

Broadband and other services

Fixed 5G broadband and fiber complement the wireless offer. The Lumos and Metronet joint ventures added fiber customers, and Metronet's residential fiber operations and customers moved to the company 1.

Market context

The US mobile telecom market is mature, and growth increasingly comes from winning accounts and raising average revenue per account. The company reported 34.7 million postpaid accounts at June 30, 2026 3, and its 2026 guidance points to between 950 thousand and 1.05 million net postpaid account additions 3.

Fixed broadband and fiber are an increasingly contested area, where cable operators, AT&T, Verizon and satellite internet providers compete for the same customers 1. Demand in these segments depends on coverage and pricing, and competitive pressure could weigh on margins.

Trends

  • Market saturationheadwind

    As the market approaches saturation, competition in all segments intensifies, putting pressure on pricing and margins 1. If this intensifies, growth in new accounts could become harder to sustain.

  • Artificial intelligence and digitalizationmixed

    The company is transforming operations through AI and digital channels such as the T-Life app, which could lower costs and raise customer satisfaction 1. Execution and customer adoption risks remain significant 1.

  • Fixed-mobile convergencetailwind

    Fixed 5G broadband and fiber offer a complementary product for wireless customers and could raise revenue per household 1. This advantage depends on the build-out of fiber networks through joint ventures.

  • Device procurement cost pressureheadwind

    Higher procurement costs, including the effect of memory chip prices on smartphones, could erode device sales margins 2. Tariffs and trade restrictions further complicate the supply chain 2.

Competitive position

TMUS is the second largest provider of wireless services in the US by total postpaid and prepaid customers 1. Its main rivals are AT&T and Verizon, both of which have invested heavily in spectrum and networks 1.

Competition also comes from cable operators offering mobile services under MVNO agreements, from regional providers and from satellite internet providers 1. Some competitors use discounted pricing or bundled services as a source of differentiation 1.

  • AT&T Inc.T

    Major mobile and broadband operator with fixed wireless products that compete directly 1.

  • Verizon Communications, Inc.VZ

    Direct competitor in wireless and fixed wireless broadband, with large investments in spectrum 1.

  • Charter Communications, Inc.CHTR

    Cable operator competing in broadband and offering mobile services through MVNO agreements 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 17 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 28 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / T-Mobile US, Inc. · 11 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / T-Mobile US, Inc. · 23 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / T-Mobile US, Inc. · 23 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.