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olivLaw · US equity research

VSE Corporation VSEC

Services-Engineering Services · SIC 8711 · Vertical: Services-Engineering Services (SIC 8711)

163.96USD+0.61% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

VSE Corporation is a major provider of aftermarket distribution and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services for aviation assets in commercial and government markets. Following the PAG acquisition and rapid revenue growth, the company has become a larger player in the aviation aftermarket.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, VSE Corporation (VSEC) stock was 163.96 USD (+0.61% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.6 bn USD, P/E 59.9 on diluted EPS of 2.74 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.24%, beta 1.58, 52-week range 142.17–243.48 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 449.1 m USD (+65.0% YoY), net income of 28.5 m USD (+792.2% YoY), diluted EPS 0.91 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
4.6 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
59.9
Diluted EPS TTM 2.74 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
1.67%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.24%
DPS 12m 0.40
Beta (2y)
1.58
Volatility (1y) 59%
52-week range
142.17243.48

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
51.5
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
140.57 – 174.40
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.69 · band width 21.5%
SMA 50 / 200
175.24 / 195.07
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-4.99 / -7.55
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−2.5%−1.1%−1.4 pp—
3 months−24.0%−0.5%−23.6 pp—
6 months−21.0%+4.4%−25.4 pp—
Year to date−5.1%+12.3%−17.4 pp—
1 year−8.3%+13.5%−21.8 pp−5.1%
3 years+181.1%+76.4%+104.7 pp+81.4%
5 years+171.9%+63.7%+108.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−41.6%
17 Aug 2026 → 23 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−47.9%
12 Nov 2021 → 13 Jul 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+22.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
449.1 m USD
+65.0% YoY
Net income
28.5 m USD
+792.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.91
+468.8% YoY
net / operating
6.4% / 10.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue203.6 m227.4 m256.0 m272.1 m282.9 m301.2 m324.6 m449.1 m
SG&A2.5 m4.4 m2.3 m2.6 m667.0 k7.7 m6.2 m9.0 m
Operating income20.1 m20.4 m24.5 m22.5 m10.1 m32.5 m32.7 m49.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation7.5 m ≈8.4 m9.9 m9.6 m ≈10.2 m ≈10.2 m12.7 m24.0 m ≈
Interest expense9.0 m6.9 m—6.4 m4.3 m1.8 m—5.2 m
Pre-tax income11.1 m13.5 m16.6 m16.1 m5.7 m30.7 m34.2 m39.3 m
Income tax2.3 m3.1 m2.6 m2.4 m2.2 m8.4 m5.1 m10.7 m
Net income11.7 m13.1 m-9.0 m3.2 m3.9 m13.6 m29.1 m28.5 m
Diluted EPS0.630.65 ≈-0.440.160.190.60 ≈1.040.91
Operating cash flow10.2 m ≈55.4 m-46.6 m11.9 m ≈24.1 m ≈37.6 m-62.3 m27.6 m ≈
Capex5.8 m ≈3.3 m2.9 m5.6 m ≈6.0 m ≈6.8 m6.5 m8.9 m ≈
Dividends paid1.8 m ≈2.0 m2.1 m2.1 m ≈2.1 m ≈2.1 m2.3 m2.8 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 61 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 5.4, median 21.4, max 340.5; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue697.2 m752.6 m661.7 m481.4 m669.4 m544.0 m786.3 m1.1 bn
Revenue YoY−8.3%+7.9%−12.1%−27.2%+39.1%−18.7%+44.5%+41.5%
Net income35.1 m37.0 m-5.2 m8.0 m28.1 m39.1 m15.3 m11.7 m
Net income YoY−10.3%+5.5%−114.0%unavailable+252.2%+39.5%−60.8%−23.6%
Diluted EPS3.213.35-0.470.632.192.760.850.55
Diluted EPS YoY−10.8%+4.4%−114.0%unavailable+247.6%+26.0%−69.2%−35.3%
net %5.0%4.9%-0.8%1.7%4.2%7.2%1.9%1.1%
Free cash flow15.7 m8.4 m31.3 m-28.1 m-3.2 m-40.5 m-51.7 m5.7 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
69.4 m USD
Financial debt
292.8 m USD
Net debt
223.4 m USD
Equity
1.4 bn USD
Total assets
2.0 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.20x
Current ratio
3.76x
ROE
1.0%
ROA
0.6%
FCF margin
0.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
544.0 m
2024
786.3 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
7.1 m
2024
13.6 m
2025
13.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
50.1 m
2024
58.8 m
2025
89.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
23.4 m
2024
28.8 m
2025
39.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
73.6 m ≈
2024
87.5 m ≈
2025
129.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
31.1 m
2024
34.9 m
2025
20.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
19.1 m
2024
23.8 m
2025
69.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
4.5 m
2024
4.4 m
2025
15.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
39.1 m
2024
15.3 m
2025
11.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
2.76
2024
0.85
2025
0.55

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
14.2 m
2024
18.0 m
2025
21.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.40
2024
0.40
2025
0.40

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
7.8 m
2024
29.5 m
2025
69.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
128.0 m
2024
158.1 m
2025
190.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
774.0 m
2024
965.3 m
2025
893.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
58.1 m
2024
71.0 m
2025
91.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
288.6 m
2024
428.3 m
2025
641.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
114.1 m
2024
197.2 m
2025
296.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
173.0 m
2024
145.5 m
2025
154.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
22.5 m
2024
30.0 m
2025
7.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
406.8 m
2024
400.2 m
2025
285.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
286.9 m
2024
298.5 m
2025
237.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
733.6 m
2024
754.4 m
2025
589.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
616.7 m †
2024
988.2 m †
2025
1.4 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-21.8 m
2024
-31.0 m
2025
27.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
18.7 m
2024
20.7 m
2025
21.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-40.5 m ≈
2024
-51.7 m ≈
2025
5.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-235.7 m
2024
-263.7 m
2025
-276.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
265.0 m
2024
315.8 m
2025
289.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
5.4 m
2024
7.1 m
2025
8.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
41.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
18.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
10.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
52.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-23.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-25.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-35.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-36.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
13.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
9.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
5.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-0.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
2.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
3.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
14.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Balance sheet

Net debt
871.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
4.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
12.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
3.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
27.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
28.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-1.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
-1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
14.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
62 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
4.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
5.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
61.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
59.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
3.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
30.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
44.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
4.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 22 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

163.96 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 4.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
4.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
59.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
30.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
5.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
41.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 2614derived 190

Score by group

  • Valuation0
  • Returns3
  • Quality10
  • Balance sheet50
  • Growth50

Estimated value range

Low
55.41
USD per share
Mid
68.84
USD per share
High
79.81
USD per share
Price: 163.96 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -58.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -138.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: same comparison basis (not independent confirmations) · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 42.23 – 87.31 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA42.23 – 72.31 (Mid 58.96)
    4 companies used · median multiple 13.9x · quartiles 11.3x – 16.0x
    ACM, MG, TTEK, WLDN
  • Peers: P/E68.60 – 87.31 (Mid 78.71)
    6 companies used · median multiple 28.8x · quartiles 25.1x – 31.9x
    ACFN, ACM, JLHL, MG, TTEK, WLDN
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate5.26 – 7.07 (Mid 6.03)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Engineering Services (SIC 8711)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 22/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality3.7%0 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality5.5%38 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality-1.5%0 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth18.4%100 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-36.9%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet4.8x0 (on a fixed band)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet12.4x100 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet3.8x100 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation59.9x0 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation30.2x0 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation-0.0%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.2%3 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet50/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality10/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial3/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation0/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

VSE CORPORATION (VSEC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 41.5%; net margin 5.5%; ROE 3.8%; net debt/EBITDA 4.8x.

The estimated value range is 55.41–79.81 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 68.84 USD, the price of 163.96 USD leaves a potential of -58.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -138.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 22/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 18.4%
  • Interest coverage: 12.4x
  • Current ratio: 3.8x

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 3.7%
  • FCF conversion: -1.5%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -36.9%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 4.8x
  • P/E (TTM): 59.9x
  • EV/EBITDA: 30.2x
  • FCF yield: -0.0%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.2%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Engineering Services (SIC 8711) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
59.9x
vertical median 28.8x
above median (+108.3%)
EV/EBITDA
30.2x
vertical median 13.9x
above median (+116.6%)
P/S
3.4x
vertical median 2.1x
above median (+63.9%)
P/B
1.6x
vertical median 4.0x
below median (−60.8%)
ROE
3.8%
vertical median 17.6%
below median (−78.2%)
Net margin
5.5%
vertical median 7.3%
below median (−23.8%)
EBIT margin
9.2%
vertical median 7.1%
above median (+29.8%)
Revenue YoY
41.5%
vertical median 4.6%
above median (+804.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
4.8x
vertical median 0.6x
above median (+643.6%)
Dividend yield
0.2%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TTEKTetra Tech Inc10.5 bn24.724.3%8.6%+4.7%+18% / +29%
ACMAecom8.8 bn31.312.3%1.9%+0.2%−34% / −23%
VSECVse Corporation4.6 bn59.93.8%5.5%+41.5%−8% / +181%
WLDNWilldan Group, Inc.1.1 bn17.421.2%8.8%unavailable−26% / +271%
MGMistras Group, Inc.644.7 m32.18.8%2.8%−0.8%+69% / +206%
JLHLJulong Holding Ltd152.3 m39.437.5%10,226.0%unavailable+76% / unavailable
ACFNAcorn Energy, Inc.40.4 m26.319.7%16.1%+4.5%+8% / +133%
OFALOFA Group7.6 m—-68.9%-1,119.1%+254.9%−97% / unavailable
STNStantec Inc.——15.5%5.9%+8.6%−18% / +6%

1- and 3-year price returns: for VSEC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
104.68
Total return -36% · Per year -36%
184.21
Total return 13% · Per year 13%
276.32
Total return 69% · Per year 69%
3 years
124.16
Total return -24% · Per year -9%
243.62
Total return 50% · Per year 14%
397.90
Total return 144% · Per year 35%
5 years
147.28
Total return -9% · Per year -2%
322.19
Total return 98% · Per year 15%
572.98
Total return 252% · Per year 29%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 60.91
  • Net margin± 42.63
  • Annual revenue growth± 31.80
  • Annual dilution± 3.58

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

VSE Corporation is a major provider of aftermarket distribution and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services for aviation assets in commercial and government markets. Following the PAG acquisition and rapid revenue growth, the company has become a larger player in the aviation aftermarket 13.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds a strong position in aviation parts distribution and repair, with established OEM relationships and expanded repair capabilities 12.
  • Rising revenue and Adjusted EBITDA margin show management's execution and the synergies from acquisitions 3.
  • The combined platform gives global scale and broad reach across commercial, business, and defense customers 23.

Weaknesses

  • High leverage after the PAG acquisition could limit financial flexibility 3.
  • Dependence on one affiliated customer group, which accounted for a significant share of revenue, creates concentration exposure 1.
  • Rapid integration of several large acquisitions may strain systems and staff 13.

Opportunities

  • Integrating PAG and NorthStar could bring revenue and margin synergies, including insourcing and joint sales 3.
  • Demand for engine and component repair services could grow if aviation activity stays solid 23.
  • Continued OEM licensed manufacturing programs could extend access to new markets and customer bases 2.

Threats

  • A drop in air transport activity or a negative economic cycle could reduce demand for parts and repairs 1.
  • Geopolitical tensions, export controls and tariffs could disrupt supply and affect costs 1.
  • Competition from OEMs and integrated providers could pressure prices and contract wins 1.

Risks

  • Acquisition integrationhigh

    Simultaneous integration of PAG, NorthStar and Aero 3 could bring unexpected costs and delay promised synergies 13.

  • Indebtednesshigh

    Total debt rose after acquisitions, and debt service could limit investment if revenue declines 3.

  • Customer concentrationmedium

    One affiliated customer group represented a significant share of revenue, and losing it could affect results 1.

  • Goodwill impairmentmedium

    Goodwill and intangible assets make up a large part of total assets, and weaker performance could lead to impairment 1.

  • Geopolitical and trade riskslow

    Conflicts, tariffs and export controls could restrict markets or delay deliveries 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Recent acquisitions added global scale and repair capacity, and management raised 2026 guidance 23.
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin reached a record level, suggesting synergies and higher-margin product and repair mix are working 3.
  • If integration continues and free cash flow rises in the second half, debt reduction could accelerate 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Debt after the PAG acquisition is significant, and several simultaneous acquisitions could strain management capacity 3.
  • Dependence on one customer group and on aviation activity exposes the company to economic cycles and contract losses 1.
  • Rapid growth through acquisitions could lead to goodwill impairment if acquired performance falls short 1.

What to watch

  • Progress of PAG and NorthStar integration and synergy captureQ3 2026
  • Free cash flow in the second half of the year and leverage reductionQ4 2026
  • Delivery against the raised 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

VSE Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides aftermarket parts distribution and MRO services for air transportation assets for commercial and government customers 1. The company operates as a single reportable segment, Aviation, after selling its Fleet and Federal and Defense segments 1. Revenue for fiscal 2025 was 1112.275 million USD, up 41% from 2024 1.

In May 2026 the company completed the acquisition of Precision Aviation Group, its largest deal in history, valued at about 2.025 billion USD in cash and equity 23. The deal was partly funded by the February 2026 offerings, which brought in about 1.3 billion USD 2.

The business relies on parts distribution, supply chain management and MRO services delivered from strategically located repair facilities certified by the FAA 1. The company employed about 1,600 people as of December 31, 2025 1.

Market context

The company operates in the commercial and business aviation aftermarket, a fragmented market with intense competition and a few visible leaders 1. Demand depends on air travel activity and economic cycles, and industry downturns can reduce demand for parts and repairs 1.

Trends

  • Acquisition-led consolidationtailwind

    The PAG, NorthStar and Aero 3 acquisitions expanded the company's scale and capabilities, and synergy integration is underway 23. If integration succeeds, margins could keep improving.

  • Commercial aviation demandtailwind

    Solid air transport activity and new distribution contracts supported record revenue in fiscal 2025 and the first half of 2026 12.

  • Tariff and supply chain pressuremixed

    New tariffs on imported goods and supply chain delays could raise costs and delay deliveries 1.

Competitive position

The aviation aftermarket is fragmented, with OEM competitors that have greater name recognition and financial resources, as well as smaller specialized competitors 1. Larger competitors may bundle integrated service packages, which could intensify competitive pressure 1.

The principal competitive factors are customer knowledge, product availability, technical and financial qualifications, past performance, repair turnaround time and price 1. The company differentiates through OEM relationships and integration into engine supply chains 2.

  • OEM aviation suppliers

    Original equipment manufacturers have greater brand recognition and complementary businesses, and can compete directly on parts and repairs 1.

  • Independent MRO providers

    Specialized providers concentrate resources on narrower services and can be aggressive competitors in certain segments 1.

  • Leasing companies and FAA-certificated repair stations

    These entities may bundle services and products, which could increase industry competition 1.

  • Aftermarket parts distributors

    Competitors offering similar distribution operate in the same fragmented market, where competition centers on price and availability 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 04 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Current report04 Nov 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report04 Nov 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report06 Aug 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
  • Current report05 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report08 May 2026
    Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report08 May 2026
  • Current report07 May 2026
    Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report05 May 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Proxy statement24 Mar 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / VSE Corporation · 27 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / VSE Corporation · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / VSE Corporation · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

VSE Corporation (VSEC): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw