olivLaw · European equity research
Aedifica AED.BR
Belgium · Euronext Brussels · Vertical: Listed companies from Belgium
Aedifica is a Belgian investor in healthcare real estate, with a portfolio of 617 care sites in eight European countries, operated by more than 140 operator groups. The company remains relevant because of structural demand created by an ageing population, though higher financing costs and slower transaction markets in 2023 were a challenge.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Aedifica (AED.BR) stock was 65.10 EUR (−0.31% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.9 bn EUR, P/E 116.2 on diluted EPS of 0.56 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.07%, beta 0.27, 52-week range 60.55–79.25 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 62.5
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 60.93 – 65.34
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.95 · band width 7.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 64.37 / 69.69
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.21 / -0.19
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.7% | −0.6% | +5.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.1% | −4.2% | −1.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.1% | +4.3% | −14.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −3.6% | +7.5% | −11.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +2.1% | +9.9% | −7.8 pp | +7.2% |
| 3 years | +15.3% | +49.8% | −34.5 pp | −5.5% |
| 5 years | −42.7% | +42.8% | −85.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 8.5, median 61.1, max 113.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 331.8 m | 24.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −92.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 8.71 | 0.56 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −93.6% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 18.3 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 3.6 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 6.2 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.31x
- ROE
- 0.7%
- ROA
- 0.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 297.2 m | 95.2 m | esef· 04 Apr 2024verified |
| Interest expense | 30.7 m | 45.0 m | esef· 04 Apr 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 386.4 m | -3.1 m | esef· 04 Apr 2024verified |
| Net income | 331.8 m | 24.5 m | esef· 04 Apr 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | 8.71 | 0.56 | esef· 04 Apr 2024verified |
| Dividend per share | 3.13 | 2.65 | esef· 04 Apr 2024derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 13.9 m | 18.3 m | esef· 04 Apr 2024verified |
| Current assets | 139.9 m | 127.3 m | esef· 04 Apr 2024verified |
| Goodwill | 143.7 m | 117.6 m | esef· 04 Apr 2024verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.9 m | 1.7 m | esef· 04 Apr 2024verified |
| Total assets | 6.1 bn | 6.2 bn | esef· 04 Apr 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 532.2 m | 407.3 m | esef· 04 Apr 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.8 bn | 2.6 bn | esef· 04 Apr 2024verified |
| Equity | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 04 Apr 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 38.1 m | 43.8 m | esef· 04 Apr 2024derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.9 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.99 – 49.10 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E5.99 – 13.06 (Mid 8.19)25 companies used · median multiple 14.6x · quartiles 10.7x – 23.3xACKB.BR, AGS.BR, AZE.BR, BANI.BR, BAR.BR, BEKB.BR, BELYS.BR, BPOST.BR, CAMB.BR, CFEB.BR, COLR.BR, DECB.BR, DEME.BR, DIE.BR, ECONB.BR, ELI.BR, EVS.BR, FAGR.BR, FLOB.BR, FOU.BR, IBAB.BR, JEN.BR, KIN.BR, MELE.BR, MOUR.BR
- Dividend discount (DDM)36.00 – 49.10 (Mid 41.54)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 9 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 116.3x | 4 (vs peers) | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.1% | 58 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet6/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial58/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial4/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AEDIFICA (AED.BR). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 0.7%.
The estimated value range is 21.00–31.08 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 24.86 EUR, the price of 65.10 EUR leaves a potential of -61.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -161.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.1x
- Current ratio: 0.3x
- P/E (TTM): 116.2x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Belgium · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELI.BRElia Group | 11.9 bn | 23.3 | 9.6% | 13.6% | −2.0% | +28% / +34% |
| LOTB.BRLotus Bakeries | 11.4 bn | 66.4 | 20.9% | 12.7% | +10.0% | +82% / +76% |
| GBLB.BRGroupe Bruxelles Lambert - Groep Brussel Lambert | 10.6 bn | 82.4 | 0.8% | 2.1% | +1.0% | +6% / +9% |
| DIE.BRD'ieteren Group | 9.7 bn | 23.2 | — | 5.3% | −1.5% | +22% / +16% |
| ACKB.BRAckermans & Van Haaren | 8.8 bn | 22.2 | 8.4% | 7.6% | +18.6% | +22% / +77% |
| COLR.BRColruyt Group | 4.4 bn | 14.6 | 9.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +12% / −6% |
| DEME.BRDeme Group | 4.2 bn | 12.2 | 15.5% | 8.3% | +1.3% | +21% / +72% |
| AZE.BRAzelis Group | 2.9 bn | 16.1 | 6.6% | 4.3% | +1.5% | +29% / −42% |
| MELE.BRMelexis | 2.1 bn | 12.4 | 30.7% | 18.4% | −3.3% | −1% / −38% |
| BEKB.BRNV Bekaert SA | 2.1 bn | 30.7 | 3.1% | 1.8% | −6.4% | +10% / −5% |
| FAGR.BRFagron | 1.8 bn | 22.2 | 16.7% | 9.2% | +14.3% | +15% / +40% |
| KIN.BRKinepolis Group | 1.4 bn | 33.9 | 19.3% | 7.0% | −4.5% | +62% / +11% |
| JEN.BRJensen Group | 706.9 m | 17.2 | 15.1% | 9.1% | +13.3% | +28% / +111% |
| BAR.BRBarco | 563.5 m | 9.1 | 7.9% | 6.7% | −9.9% | −48% / −59% |
| IBAB.BRIon Beam Applications | 487.2 m | 39.5 | 10.7% | 2.1% | +24.5% | +48% / +52% |
| DECB.BRDeceuninck | 341.3 m | 24.6 | 4.3% | 1.7% | −4.5% | +8% / +8% |
| CAMB.BRCampine | 272.3 m | 12.2 | 28.6% | 6.1% | +13.4% | −12% / +161% |
| CFEB.BRAannemingsmaatschappij Cfe | 266.8 m | 11.1 | 9.9% | 2.0% | −5.3% | +22% / +48% |
| MOUR.BRMoury Construct | 261.2 m | 10.7 | 21.3% | 13.1% | −4.0% | +11% / +76% |
| EVS.BREvs Broadcast Equipment | 245.9 m | 6.0 | 20.8% | 21.7% | +14.3% | −49% / −36% |
| BPOST.BRBpost | 229.8 m | 3.5 | 6.3% | 1.5% | −2.6% | −39% / −75% |
| ECONB.BREconocom Group | 210.7 m | 40.5 | 1.2% | 0.2% | +4.3% | −1% / −36% |
| IMMO.BRImmobel | 172.2 m | — | -7.4% | -25.2% | −32.8% | −24% / −36% |
| MONNI.BRKeyware Technologies | 171.0 m | 162.0 | 3.5% | 4.5% | −5.9% | −5% / −17% |
| HYSG.BRHybrid Software Group PLC | 121.3 m | — | -2.5% | -5.5% | +7.2% | −4% / +13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AED.BR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Aedifica is a Belgian investor in healthcare real estate, with a portfolio of 617 care sites in eight European countries, operated by more than 140 operator groups. The company remains relevant because of structural demand created by an ageing population, though higher financing costs and slower transaction markets in 2023 were a challenge 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Large portfolio diversified across several European countries, with many sites and a high share of private tenants 1.
- Triple net contracts in many countries, which shift most operating costs to operators 1.
- Broad energy certification of the portfolio and a clear plan to reduce energy intensity up to 2030 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a few large operators whose financial difficulties could affect rent collection 1.
- Exposure to older buildings in some markets that may need investment to meet new standards 1.
- Small operating structure that leaves day-to-day running to operators and limits direct control over service quality 1.
Opportunities
- Structural demand for residential care, supported by an ageing population, could allow portfolio growth through acquisitions 1.
- Markets with a high share of privately financed care could offer new investment opportunities 1.
- Sustainability requirements may favour energy-efficient assets, which could attract green financing 1.
Threats
- Higher financing costs could make acquisitions harder and reduce the appeal of property investment 1.
- Operator difficulties caused by staff shortages and energy costs could raise the risk of rent default 1.
- Changes in regulation and public care funding could alter market conditions in the portfolio's countries 1.
Risks
- Tenant concentrationhigh
A limited number of operator groups generate a significant share of contractual rent. Difficulties at one of them could directly affect the company's revenue 1.
- Climate riskmedium
Climate change may raise temperatures inside buildings and bring flooding, which could require costly asset adaptations 1.
- Cost of financingmedium
High interest rates could reduce asset values and slow acquisitions, affecting the company's growth 1.
- Energy compliancemedium
Stricter energy performance requirements could force additional investment in older buildings if sufficient renovations cannot be carried out 1.
- Sector staff shortageslow
A shortage of qualified care staff can affect operator activity and the stability of long-term rents 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for residential care keeps growing with the ageing population, the existing portfolio could generate stable long-term rental income 1.
- The contract structure, in which operators bear many costs, could protect the company's margins if the market remains stable 1.
- If financing becomes more accessible, acquisitions could speed up portfolio growth compared with the level seen in 2023 1.
What would break the thesis
- If major operators run into financial difficulty, rents could fall and income could be lost from the affected sites 1.
- Higher financing costs could reduce asset values and make new investments less attractive 1.
- Adapting buildings to energy and climate standards could require significant spending, which could reduce returns 1.
What to watch
- Development of contractual rents and operator occupancy rates2024
- Pace of acquisitions and transactions in key markets2024
- Progress towards the 130 kWh/m² target by 20302030
- Publication of the Environmental Data Report for 2023June 2024
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Aedifica owns and leases healthcare buildings, mainly residential care homes for older people, but also senior housing, childcare centres, mixed-use care buildings and other care facilities. At 31 December 2023 the fair value of its real estate investments was 5.679.565.002 € 1, and the portfolio had a total area of 2.193.002 m² 1. Most contracts are triple net, so the operator generally bears operating costs, maintenance and the risk of rent default, which means the gross yield is generally close to the net yield 1.
Revenue comes from contractual rent paid by operators, which at 31 December 2023 amounted to 325.213.490 € 1. The average gross yield was 5,8% 1, while properties in Germany, Finland and Sweden are often double net, with some costs borne by the owner 1. The company relies on a few large operator groups, but most tenants are private, which reduces dependence on a single type of public funding 1.
Aedifica has a small operating structure with 127 employees 1 and focuses on acquisitions, development and portfolio management rather than direct operation of the sites. Sustainability targets include reducing the portfolio's energy intensity to 130 kWh/m² by 2030, compared with 167 kWh/m² in 2022 1.
Segments
Residential care homes for older people
Residential care homes are the main segment, accounting for 67% of the portfolio's real value 1. They provide permanent residence with collective services, help with daily life and nursing or paramedical care 1.
Market context
Elderly care markets in Western and Northern Europe are supported by a growing number of people over 80, and the source points to strong demand against limited supply of space 1. However, higher energy costs, staff shortages and stricter regulation have made financing harder for operators and lengthened transaction processes 1. This dynamic could slow acquisitions if financing remains expensive.
In many countries a large part of care funding comes from public sources, but the privately paid share has risen in recent years, especially in the United Kingdom 1. This can support demand for private places, but it exposes operators to pressure from social budgets and policy changes 1.
Trends
- Ageing populationtailwind
The share of people over 80 is rising in several European countries, and the source links this trend to sustained demand for residential care 1. If supply stays limited, the position of existing sites could be strengthened.
- Energy and staffing costsheadwind
Rising energy costs and staff shortages weigh on operator margins and can raise the risk of rent default 1. Aedifica is trying to reduce consumption through energy efficiency and EPC certificates, but the impact could persist 1.
- More expensive financingheadwind
Higher interest rates reduced the number of transactions in 2023 in several markets, which could slow growth through acquisitions 1. The effect on yields depends on how the cost of capital evolves 1.
- Regulation and sustainabilitymixed
European requirements on energy performance and the EU taxonomy are becoming more important for buildings 1. They can create adaptation costs, but also opportunities for energy-efficient assets 1.
Competitive position
The care investment market includes specialised real estate investors and funds competing for the same quality assets, especially in the top segment. The source indicates that investors are highly selective about building quality and location, and the top segment is seen as a relatively safe haven 1. Competition for well-located assets could push up acquisition prices.
On the operator side, competition comes from large groups that manage many sites and can negotiate their contract terms. The company depends in part on a few such groups, so their performance matters considerably 1.
- Clariane
Major care operator and one of Aedifica's largest tenants, present in several countries of the portfolio 1.
- Colisée
Care operator present among the company's main tenants, with a significant share of revenue 1.
- Orpea
Care operator that appears in the Aedifica portfolio and whose share of rent declined in 2023 1.
- Vivalto
Care operator group active in some of the countries where Aedifica holds assets 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202304 Apr 2024
- Annual report 202304 Apr 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Aedifica · 31 Dec 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.