olivLaw · European equity research
Ascencio SA ASCE.BR
Belgium · Euronext Brussels · Vertical: Listed companies from Belgium
Ascencio is a Belgian real estate company with SIR status that owns and manages commercial property in France, Spain and Belgium. For the year ended 30 September 2025 it reports an average cost of financing of 2.15% and a spot hedging ratio of 96.6%, indicating limited exposure to interest rate swings.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Ascencio SA (ASCE.BR) stock was 52.90 EUR (−0.94% on the day), with market capitalisation 349.1 m EUR, P/E 9.8 on diluted EPS of 5.40 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 8.12%, beta 0.29, 52-week range 48.70–56.20 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 49.0
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 52.26 – 53.94
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.38 · band width 3.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 52.76 / 51.74
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.17 / 0.19
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.1% | −0.6% | +1.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.0% | −4.2% | +5.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +6.1% | +4.3% | +1.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −0.9% | +7.5% | −8.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +5.8% | +9.9% | −4.1 pp | +6.4% |
| 3 years | +19.8% | +49.8% | −30.0 pp | −6.8% |
| 5 years | +6.3% | +42.8% | −36.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 9.5, median 11.0, max 12.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 25.5 m | 35.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +39.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.87 | 5.40 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +39.5% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 42.6 m | 45.9 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 2.8 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 450.2 m EUR
- Total assets
- 773.6 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.14x
- ROE
- 8.0%
- ROA
- 4.6%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 49.5 m | 45.2 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 6.5 m | 5.9 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 26.1 m | 36.4 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Net income | 25.5 m | 35.6 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.87 | 5.40 | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 4.15 | 4.30 | esef· 08 Jan 2026derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.1 m | 2.8 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Current assets | 14.6 m | 11.7 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 375.0 k | 459.0 k | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Total assets | 780.7 m | 773.6 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 129.8 m | 84.8 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 337.7 m | 323.4 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Equity | 442.9 m | 450.2 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 6.6 m | 6.6 m | esef· 22 Jan 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 43.5 m | 46.0 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Capex | 942.0 k | -65.0 k | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 42.6 m ≈ | 45.9 m ≈ | esef· 08 Jan 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.9 m | 3.5 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -43.0 m | -49.7 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 27.4 m | 28.4 m | esef· 08 Jan 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 349.1 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
46% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 58.45 – 126.28 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E58.64 – 126.28 (Mid 78.12)25 companies used · median multiple 14.5x · quartiles 10.9x – 23.4xACKB.BR, AGS.BR, AZE.BR, BANI.BR, BAR.BR, BEKB.BR, BELYS.BR, BPOST.BR, CAMB.BR, CFEB.BR, COLR.BR, DECB.BR, DEME.BR, DIE.BR, ECONB.BR, ELI.BR, EVS.BR, FAGR.BR, FLOB.BR, FOU.BR, IBAB.BR, JEN.BR, KIN.BR, MELE.BR, MOUR.BR
- Dividend discount (DDM)58.45 – 79.70 (Mid 67.44)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 128.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 7.7x | 95 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.1x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.8x | 79 (vs peers) | 23% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 13.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 8.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 61.8% | 83 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet57/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns93/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation88/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ASCENCIO (ASCE.BR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 8.0%.
The estimated value range is 58.54–102.99 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 72.78 EUR, the price of 52.90 EUR leaves a potential of 37.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 27.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 128.9%
- Interest coverage: 7.7x
- P/E (TTM): 9.8x
- FCF yield: 13.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 8.1%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 61.8%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.1x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Belgium · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELI.BRElia Group | 12.0 bn | 23.4 | 9.6% | 13.6% | −2.0% | +29% / +35% |
| LOTB.BRLotus Bakeries | 11.4 bn | 66.4 | 20.9% | 12.7% | +10.0% | +82% / +76% |
| GBLB.BRGroupe Bruxelles Lambert - Groep Brussel Lambert | 10.6 bn | 82.3 | 0.8% | 2.1% | +1.0% | +6% / +9% |
| DIE.BRD'ieteren Group | 9.5 bn | 22.7 | — | 5.3% | −1.5% | +19% / +14% |
| ACKB.BRAckermans & Van Haaren | 8.8 bn | 22.1 | 8.4% | 7.6% | +18.6% | +22% / +77% |
| COLR.BRColruyt Group | 4.4 bn | 14.5 | 9.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +10% / −7% |
| DEME.BRDeme Group | 4.1 bn | 12.0 | 15.5% | 8.3% | +1.3% | +18% / +69% |
| AZE.BRAzelis Group | 2.9 bn | 15.9 | 6.6% | 4.3% | +1.5% | +27% / −43% |
| MELE.BRMelexis | 2.2 bn | 12.6 | 30.7% | 18.4% | −3.3% | +1% / −37% |
| BEKB.BRNV Bekaert SA | 2.0 bn | 30.2 | 3.1% | 1.8% | −6.4% | +8% / −6% |
| FAGR.BRFagron | 1.8 bn | 22.0 | 16.7% | 9.2% | +14.3% | +14% / +39% |
| KIN.BRKinepolis Group | 1.3 bn | 33.1 | 19.3% | 7.0% | −4.5% | +58% / +9% |
| JEN.BRJensen Group | 710.7 m | 17.3 | 15.1% | 9.1% | +13.3% | +28% / +112% |
| BAR.BRBarco | 556.0 m | 9.0 | 7.9% | 6.7% | −9.9% | −49% / −59% |
| IBAB.BRIon Beam Applications | 479.6 m | 38.9 | 10.7% | 2.1% | +24.5% | +45% / +50% |
| DECB.BRDeceuninck | 337.1 m | 24.3 | 4.3% | 1.7% | −4.5% | +7% / +7% |
| CAMB.BRCampine | 270.8 m | 12.2 | 28.6% | 6.1% | +13.4% | −12% / +160% |
| CFEB.BRAannemingsmaatschappij Cfe | 269.3 m | 11.2 | 9.9% | 2.0% | −5.3% | +24% / +49% |
| MOUR.BRMoury Construct | 265.2 m | 10.9 | 21.3% | 13.1% | −4.0% | +13% / +79% |
| EVS.BREvs Broadcast Equipment | 243.5 m | 6.0 | 20.8% | 21.7% | +14.3% | −49% / −36% |
| ECONB.BREconocom Group | 205.3 m | 39.5 | 1.2% | 0.2% | +4.3% | −4% / −37% |
| BPOST.BRBpost | 176.2 m | 2.7 | 6.3% | 1.5% | −2.6% | −53% / −81% |
| IMMO.BRImmobel | 172.2 m | — | -7.4% | -25.2% | −32.8% | −24% / −36% |
| MONNI.BRKeyware Technologies | 166.0 m | 157.4 | 3.5% | 4.5% | −5.9% | −8% / −20% |
| HYSG.BRHybrid Software Group PLC | 121.3 m | — | -2.5% | -5.5% | +7.2% | −4% / +13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ASCE.BR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Ascencio is a Belgian real estate company with SIR status that owns and manages commercial property in France, Spain and Belgium. For the year ended 30 September 2025 it reports an average cost of financing of 2.15% and a spot hedging ratio of 96.6%, indicating limited exposure to interest rate swings.
SWOT
Strengths
- Financing structure with a low average cost of debt and a high interest rate hedging ratio.
- Geographic diversification across three markets with special tax regimes.
- Shareholder base with high free float and governance structured through a board and committees.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on a limited number of commercial assets and on retail tenants.
- Exposure to debt, with a significant average volume of bank financing.
- Complex group structure, with many SCIs and subsidiaries across different jurisdictions.
Opportunities
- Gradual refinancing of debt could lower the cost of financing further.
- Developing the portfolio in Spain and Belgium could add stable returns.
- Modernising shopping centres could support tenant demand.
Threats
- Rising interest rates could affect refinancing costs once current hedges expire.
- A decline in retail spending could reduce rents and occupancy levels.
- Changes to the SIR, SIIC or Socimi rules could alter the tax regime.
Risks
- Interest rate riskmedium
Exposure to interest rates depends on the structure of derivative instruments and on the maturities hedged through 2032.
- Refinancing riskmedium
If market conditions deteriorate, refinancing the debt could come at higher costs.
- Tenant riskmedium
Financial difficulties among retail tenants could lead to vacancies and income losses.
- Concentration risklow
Concentration of shareholding and family control could influence strategic decisions.
- Regulatory riskhigh
Changes to the SIR, SIIC and Socimi frameworks could affect the tax regime and distributions.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A falling average cost of financing and a high interest rate hedging ratio could support margins in the period ahead.
- Diversification across three European markets reduces dependence on a single local economy.
- The special tax status could allow a large part of profit to be distributed to shareholders.
What would break the thesis
- If interest rates rise after the hedges expire, the cost of financing could return to higher levels.
- Weak retail consumption could reduce rents and occupancy in the shopping centres.
- The complexity of the group structure and the exposure to debt could limit strategic flexibility.
What to watch
- Trend in the average cost of financing and the hedging rationext 10-K
- Occupancy levels and rents in the shopping centres2026
- Any changes to the SIR, SIIC or Socimi regimes2027
- Pace of investments and disposals in the portfolionext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Ascencio SA is set up as a public limited company with SIR real estate investment status, and its sole statutory administrator is Ascencio Management SA. The governance structure is one-tier, with a board that sets strategy, approves investments and oversees risks. According to the 2025 annual report, the company has share capital of 39,575,910 EUR, split into 6,595,985 ordinary shares with no preference shares. Free float is 85% of shares, while the Mestdagh family controls about 10%.
Operations run through subsidiaries and a branch: a French branch with SIIC status that holds several SCIs with commercial assets, and a Spanish subsidiary, Ascencio Iberia SAU, with Socimi status. This organisation separates assets by jurisdiction, each with its own tax and regulatory regime.
Financing and interest rate risk management are central to the business model. The company refinanced and extended its derivatives portfolio, lowering its average cost of debt compared with the prior year, which shows the emphasis placed on financing policy.
Segments
Retail in France
Most of the portfolio is held through the French branch, via several property companies (SCIs) that own retail parks and shopping centres.
Retail in Spain
Spanish assets are held through Ascencio Iberia SAU, with Socimi status, and represent a secondary geographic exposure relative to France.
Portfolio in Belgium
The parent Ascencio SA, with Belgian SIR status, holds assets directly and coordinates the overall strategy of the group.
Market context
Ascencio operates in the commercial real estate market in France, Spain and Belgium, where it acts as an investor and manager of retail assets. Its exact market share is not detailed in the analysed source, but the SIR, SIIC and Socimi regimes determine the rules for profit distribution and financing.
Demand and rental values depend on local consumption and financing conditions. Since the cost of financing is a major factor, changes in interest rates could influence both yields and asset values.
Trends
- Cost of financingtailwind
A lower average cost of financing, at 2.15%, supports margins, although interest rate exposure depends on the structure of derivatives for 2025-2032.
- Interest rate hedgingmixed
A high hedging ratio reduces sensitivity to rate increases, but it may limit the benefit if rates fall.
- Retail consumptionheadwind
Shopping centre activity depends on consumption in France and Spain, and pressure on household incomes could weigh on rents.
- SIR and SIIC regulatory frameworkmixed
Special tax regimes require profit distributions and debt limits, which shape the capital strategy.
Competitive position
The analysed source does not include a detailed list of competitors. In general, Ascencio competes with other retail real estate companies and property investment funds active in France, Spain and Belgium.
The company's competitive edge lies in its SIR and SIIC status, its access to lower-cost financing and its geographic diversification, although these do not guarantee its market position.
- Other retail real estate companies in France
Competition for rents and for the acquisition of shopping centres; no detailed data in the analysed source.
- Spanish Socimi companies
Direct competition for commercial assets, through the Ascencio Iberia subsidiary.
- Belgian SIR property funds
Competition in the local Belgian market and for investor capital.
- European real estate funds
Competition for financing and for cross-border acquisitions.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202508 Jan 2026
- Annual report 202522 Jan 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 (ESEF) · SEC / Ascencio SA · 30 Sept 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.