olivLaw · European equity research
Citycon Oyj CTY1S.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
Citycon Oyj is a shopping centre owner and operator in the Nordic countries and Estonia, carrying a large debt load that it refinances. Its situation is now shaped by the takeover offer launched by G City, and its financial expenses rose sharply in 2025.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Citycon Oyj (CTY1S.HE) stock was 3.01 EUR (+0.33% on the day), with market capitalisation 986.0 m EUR, P/E 10.4 on diluted EPS of 0.29 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.27, 52-week range 2.64–4.00 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 62.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.92 – 3.02
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.87 · band width 3.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.96 / 3.29
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.01 / 0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.7% | +0.4% | +1.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +3.1% | −3.3% | +6.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −2.4% | +4.0% | −6.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −24.5% | +8.1% | −32.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −24.5% | +10.7% | −35.2 pp | −1.9% |
| 3 years | −41.8% | +50.1% | −91.9 pp | +5.4% |
| 5 years | −58.2% | +43.6% | −101.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 13.7, median 13.7, max 13.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | -37.9 m | 95.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.40 | 0.29 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 92.1 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 1.8 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 1.7 bn EUR
- Equity
- 1.9 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 4.1 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.95x
- Current ratio
- 0.55x
- ROE
- 5.1%
- ROA
- 2.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 29.8 m | 226.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 152.7 m | 180.5 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -47.0 m | 126.1 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -9.2 m | 31.2 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -37.9 m | 95.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.40 | 0.29 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 358.5 m | 92.1 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 46.1 m | 26.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 411.3 m | 120.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 600.0 k | 400.0 k | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 89.9 m | 89.7 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 9.7 m | 7.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.3 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 20.8 m | 130.5 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.1 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 112.6 m | 217.5 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 94.8 m | 327.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 986.0 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.41 – 5.34 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E2.41 – 5.34 (Mid 3.29)24 companies used · median multiple 11.4x · quartiles 8.3x – 18.4xALMA.HE, APETIT.HE, ASPO.HE, ATRAV.HE, BIOBV.HE, CAPMAN.HE, CONSTI.HE, DIGIA.HE, ELEAV.HE, ELISA.HE, ENENTO.HE, ETTE.HE, FORTUM.HE, FSECURE.HE, GLA1V.HE, GRK.HE, HARVIA.HE, ICP1V.HE, ILKKA.HE, INVEST.HE, KALMAR.HE, KAMUX.HE, KCR.HE, KEMIRA.HE
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 4.7% | 32 (vs peers) | 28% |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.4x | 69 (vs peers) | 28% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.3% | 4 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial32/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial4/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial69/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Citycon Oyj (CTY1S.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 7.3%.
The estimated value range is 2.41–5.34 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.29 EUR, the price of 3.01 EUR leaves a potential of 9.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 8.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 1.3x
- Current ratio: 0.6x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.3%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KEMIRA.HEKemira Oyj | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 10.5% | 6.6% | −6.6% | −17% / +4% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CTY1S.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Citycon Oyj is a shopping centre owner and operator in the Nordic countries and Estonia, carrying a large debt load that it refinances. Its situation is now shaped by the takeover offer launched by G City, and its financial expenses rose sharply in 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A portfolio concentrated in shopping centres in stable Nordic markets with a well-established local position.
- Long operating experience and a sustainability programme recognised by sector organisations.
- Access to funding through bonds and undrawn committed credit lines.
Weaknesses
- High debt that makes the company sensitive to rising interest rates and refinancing conditions.
- Frequent management changes in 2025 that could slow strategic decisions.
- Losses on financial instruments that do not qualify for hedge accounting under IFRS.
Opportunities
- A recovery in Nordic consumer spending could support rents and occupancy in the centres.
- Modernisation and development projects could raise the attractiveness of the properties.
- If the G City transaction completes, the company could enter a new shareholder structure.
Threats
- Competition from online commerce can reduce demand for physical retail space.
- Rising construction costs can delay or inflate development projects.
- Economic uncertainty linked to the war in Ukraine can weigh on consumer confidence.
Risks
- Debt refinancinghigh
If interest rates stay high, refinancing bonded debt could raise financial costs and reduce profit margins.
- Property valuationshigh
If investors require higher yields, the value of shopping centres could fall, affecting the balance sheet.
- Tenant demandmedium
Local competition and online commerce can reduce rents or raise vacancy, especially outside the capital cities.
- Development project costsmedium
Rising construction costs or delays can increase budgets and postpone project delivery.
- Change in shareholdingmedium
The takeover by G City could change the company's strategy and governance structure.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Nordic economy recovers and consumption grows, rents and occupancy in the centres could support the company's income.
- A portfolio concentrated in stable markets and diversified funding could provide a solid base for future projects.
- The G City transaction could bring new financial or strategic support to the company.
What would break the thesis
- If interest rates stay high, the cost of financing could weigh on profitability and investment capacity.
- Online commerce and local competition could reduce demand for retail space, especially in less attractive locations.
- Frequent management changes and uncertainty over the shareholder structure could slow the execution of strategy.
What to watch
- Outcome of the public takeover offer launched by G City Ltd2026
- Trend in the average cost of debt and refinancingQ1 2026
- Occupancy rates and rent levels in the main centresnext 10-K
- Progress of development projects and construction costs2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Citycon Oyj owns, develops and manages shopping centres in Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Estonia, with a focus on Nordic markets. According to the annual report for 2025, the company kept its strategy centred on properties with local impact and on sustainability targets through 2030 1. Management changed several times in 2025, and the current chief executive took office in September 2025 1.
In January 2026 the company paid a one-off capital return of 0.20 EUR per share and signed a new secured loan of 270 million EUR 1. The board recommended that shareholders accept the public takeover offer launched by G City Ltd 1.
Segments
Nordic shopping centres
The core portfolio consists of shopping centres in the Nordic countries, where the company concentrates most of its assets and development investment 1.
Development and properties in Estonia
Activity in Estonia and development projects are managed separately and are sensitive to construction costs and project timing, factors the report flags as risks 1.
Market context
The core market is shopping centres in Northern Europe, where demand depends on consumer confidence and the overall economy. The annual report indicates that trends in shopper activity and incomes in these countries directly affect property values, occupancy and rent levels 1.
Competition in retail and the growth of online commerce could press on demand for retail space, especially outside major cities. Interest rate levels also shape the yields investors require on real estate 1.
Trends
- Consumer spending in Northern Europetailwind
If consumer confidence and disposable incomes improve, demand for retail space could support rents and occupancy.
- Cost of financingheadwind
High interest rates raise the cost of debt and can press on the yields required from properties, especially if refinancing takes place at higher levels.
- Online commercemixed
Growth in online sales can reduce demand for traditional retail space, but well-located centres could benefit from local experiences and services.
- Construction costsheadwind
Rising construction costs can inflate development budgets or delay projects, which would affect planned returns.
Competitive position
Citycon competes with other property operators specialised in shopping centres in the Nordic region and with property funds that invest in the same assets. The annual report notes that stronger local competition can reduce rents or raise vacancy rates 1.
Beyond direct competition, the company faces pressure from online commerce and new retail formats that draw customers away from centres. Its advantage could lie in locations with strong local demand.
- Nordic shopping centre operators
Local companies that own and manage similar shopping centres, with competing tenants and shoppers in the same cities.
- European property funds
Institutional investors that buy retail assets and compete for tenants and capital.
- Retailers with strong online sales
Retail companies that may reduce the need for physical space and influence demand in shopping centres.
- Other retail property developers
Developers that compete for land, permits and tenants in new projects in the region.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Citycon Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.