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olivLaw · European equity research

Erste Group Bank AG EBS.VI

Austria · Wiener Börse · ISIN AT0000652011 · Vertical: Listed companies from Austria

112.40EUR+1.35% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Erste Group Bank AG is a banking group headquartered in Austria that operates in seven core markets in Central and Southeastern Europe and, since 2025, has integrated Erste Bank Polska as an eighth core market. The group targets a return on tangible equity of about 19% for 2026, but the year will be shaped by one-off effects from the consolidation, including a 300 mn EUR provision, making 2026 performance an important test of the group structure.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Erste Group Bank AG (EBS.VI) stock was 112.40 EUR (+1.35% on the day), with P/E 13.6 on diluted EPS of 8.24 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.67%, beta 1.16, 52-week range 88.05–126.40 EUR.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
unavailable
P/E (TTM)
13.6
Diluted EPS TTM 8.24 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
7.33%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.67%
DPS 12m 0.75
Beta (2y)
1.16
Volatility (1y) 30%
52-week range
88.05126.40

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
52.5
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
104.68 – 113.12
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.91 · band width 7.7%
SMA 50 / 200
115.97 / 108.85
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.73 / -2.52
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyEURO STOXX 50vs EURO STOXX 50Vertical median
1 month−3.4%+0.4%−3.7 pp—
3 months−7.6%−3.3%−4.4 pp—
6 months+12.5%+4.0%+8.5 pp—
Year to date+9.2%+8.1%+1.1 pp—
1 year+26.7%+10.7%+16.0 pp+5.4%
3 years+226.4%+50.1%+176.3 pp+8.1%
5 years+176.2%+43.6%+132.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−19.4%
03 Feb 2026 → 20 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−51.8%
09 Feb 2022 → 26 Aug 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+22.5%
EURO STOXX 50 +7.5%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 8.3, median 10.4, max 12.5; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20242025
Revenueunavailableunavailable
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailable
Net income3.1 bn3.5 bn
Net income YoYunavailable+12.3%
Diluted EPS7.198.24
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+14.6%
net %unavailableunavailable
Free cash flow-9.8 bn3.3 bn

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
27.6 bn EUR
Financial debt
unavailable EUR
Net debt
unavailable EUR
Equity
34.7 bn EUR
Total assets
368.6 bn EUR
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
10.7%
ROA
1.0%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (EUR)

Income statement · EUR

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
547.0 m
2025
560.0 m

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
5.0 bn
2025
5.4 bn

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.1 bn

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2024
3.1 bn
2025
3.5 bn

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
7.19
2025
8.24

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
416.2 m
2025
409.2 m

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2024
3.00
2025
0.75

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · EUR

Cash
2024
25.1 bn
2025
27.6 bn

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
2.8 bn
2025
2.9 bn

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2024
353.7 bn
2025
368.6 bn

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2024
30.8 bn
2025
34.7 bn

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · EUR

Operating cash flow
2024
-9.0 bn
2025
4.0 bn

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2024
746.0 m
2025
753.0 m

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
-9.8 bn ≈
2025
3.3 bn ≈

esef· 18 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-850.0 m
2025
-1.0 bn

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-1.6 bn
2025
-630.0 m

esef· 18 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
12.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
14.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
unavailable
input data missing
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
16.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
1.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
9.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
4.0 bn EUR
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
753.0 m EUR
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
3.3 bn EUR
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
93.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
13.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
7.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
P/S
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
0.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 2 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

112.40 EUR

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: unavailable

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
13.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
16.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
0.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Coverage and freshness

16/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Source: esefpublished 18 Mar 2026
verified 34

Score by group

17% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
96.33
EUR per share
Mid
140.42
EUR per share
High
183.11
EUR per share
Price: 112.40 EUR
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 24.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 20.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 96.33 – 183.11 EUR.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (EUR per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E96.33 – 183.11 (Mid 140.42)
    25 companies used · median multiple 17.0x · quartiles 11.7x – 22.2x
    1AST.VI, ACAG.VI, AMAG.VI, ANDR.VI, BMAG.VI, CPI.VI, DOC.VI, ETS.VI, EVN.VI, FAA.VI, FACC.VI, FQT.VI, MMK.VI, OMV.VI, POS.VI, POST.VI, PYT.VI, ROS.VI, SBO.VI, STR.VI, SWUT.VI, TKA.VI, VER.VI, VOE.VI, WIE.VI
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate10.20 – 13.91 (Mid 11.77)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
3.0%
Equity risk premium
5.5%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
8.5%
Terminal growth
2.0%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
FCF conversion · Quality93.6%91 (on a fixed band)38%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/E (TTM) · Valuation13.6x63 (vs peers)63%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial91/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial63/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ERSTE GROUP BANK AG (EBS.VI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 16.2%.

The estimated value range is 96.33–183.11 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 140.42 EUR, the price of 112.40 EUR leaves a potential of 24.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 20.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 93.6%

What contradicts it

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Listed companies from Austria · same country · compared with 40 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
13.6x
vertical median 17.1x
below median (−20.3%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 5.3x
P/S
—
vertical median 0.7x
P/B
—
vertical median 1.6x
ROE
16.2%
vertical median 8.0%
above median (+103.2%)
Net margin
—
vertical median 3.6%
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 5.8%
Revenue YoY
—
vertical median -1.8%
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.6x
Dividend yield
0.7%
vertical median 2.6%
below median (−74.7%)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
OMV.VIOmv Aktiengesellschaft35.6 bn23.48.9%6.3%−7.2%+53% / +86%
VER.VIVerbund AG26.2 bn17.614.7%18.6%−2.8%+19% / −14%
STR.VIStrabag Se11.7 bn12.817.2%4.9%+7.4%+32% / +168%
ANDR.VIAndritz AG8.1 bn17.719.3%5.8%−5.2%+33% / +66%
VOE.VIvoestalpine AG7.1 bn17.05.7%2.8%−4.3%+12% / +61%
EVN.VIEvn AG5.5 bn12.56.9%14.6%+3.8%+15% / +14%
ATS.VIAT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik Aktiengesellschaft2.5 bn—-2.4%-1.4%+12.7%+238% / +346%
DOC.VIDO & CO Aktiengesellschaft2.4 bn22.224.0%4.3%+7.1%+12% / +70%
CPI.VICPI Europe AG2.2 bn4.212.2%68.2%−6.7%+1% / −17%
POST.VIÖsterreichische Post Aktiengesellschaft2.2 bn16.418.3%4.3%−2.6%+6% / +2%
WIE.VIWienerberger AG1.9 bn11.75.9%3.6%+1.2%−40% / −32%
LNZ.VILenzing Aktiengesellschaft1.8 bn—-11.8%-5.2%−2.3%−48% / −65%
MMK.VIMayr-Melnhof Karton Aktiengesellschaft1.3 bn17.13.6%1.9%−4.8%−21% / −41%
POS.VIPorr AG1.2 bn10.712.9%1.8%+1.7%+6% / +167%
AMAG.VIAMAG Austria Metall AG1.1 bn33.44.7%2.3%+2.1%+34% / +19%
BMAG.VIPIERER Mobility AG1.1 bn1.8638.9%58.9%−46.3%+85% / −47%
FQT.VIFrequentis AG790.7 m28.115.5%4.9%+20.8%−14% / +111%
ETS.VIEuroTeleSites AG745.4 m22.38.8%11.9%+3.7%−6% / +34%
AGR.VIAGRANA Beteiligungs-Aktiengesellschaft722.9 m—-3.6%-1.2%−7.9%−3% / −15%
FACC.VIFacc AG602.4 m28.49.1%2.2%+11.3%+22% / +127%
ROS.VIRosenbauer International AG591.1 m11.917.4%3.5%+9.4%+35% / +104%
1AST.VIASTA Energy Solutions AG467.7 m15.542.3%4.3%+8.3%unavailable / unavailable
SBO.VISbo AG456.6 m19.45.2%5.2%−18.8%+5% / −30%
SEM.VISemperit Aktiengesellschaft Holding379.1 m902.50.1%0.1%−2.1%+39% / +28%
ACAG.VIAustriacard Holdings AG347.8 m25.611.4%4.1%−8.2%+76% / +65%

1- and 3-year price returns: for EBS.VI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Scenarios are not available. input data missing

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Erste Group Bank AG is a banking group headquartered in Austria that operates in seven core markets in Central and Southeastern Europe and, since 2025, has integrated Erste Bank Polska as an eighth core market. The group targets a return on tangible equity of about 19% for 2026, but the year will be shaped by one-off effects from the consolidation, including a 300 mn EUR provision, making 2026 performance an important test of the group structure 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Broad regional presence across core markets, with solid client bases and brand recognition in Central and Southeastern Europe 1.
  • High Common Equity Tier 1 capital levels, providing flexibility for distributions and strategic transactions 1.
  • Proprietary digital platform and API partnerships that support personalised services and expansion into new segments 1.

Weaknesses

  • Integration of the Polish bank creates significant integration costs and one-off effects in the 2026 financial year 1.
  • Exposure to property and high-emission sectors increases the portfolio's sensitivity to climate transition and physical risks 1.
  • The dividend payout was temporarily reduced, which may limit appeal for investors expecting stable distributions 1.

Opportunities

  • Growth in lending and service volumes in core markets, if the macroeconomic environment remains supportive 1.
  • Financing renewable energy projects and companies investing in decarbonisation could create new revenue opportunities 1.
  • Extending the digital offering to younger clients and fintech partners could reduce distribution costs 1.

Threats

  • Financial market volatility and international sanctions may indirectly affect the group's activities and funding costs 1.
  • Physical effects of climate change may damage property collateral and increase credit losses 1.
  • Regulatory pressure and competition from fintechs could limit margins and revenue growth 1.

Risks

  • One-off effects of the Erste Bank Polska consolidationhigh

    The consolidation could create negative effects on net interest income, expenses and risk costs in 2026, which could affect reported profit 1.

  • Physical climate risksmedium

    Part of the property collateral is exposed to flooding and other extreme events, which could reduce collateral values and increase credit losses 1.

  • Climate transition risksmedium

    Clients in high-emission sectors could face repayment difficulties if climate policies intensify, which would affect portfolio quality 1.

  • Geopolitical and macroeconomic developmentsmedium

    International conflicts and market volatility could have indirect effects on funding costs and loan demand 1.

  • Goodwill impairment risklow

    A weaker economic environment than expected could make a goodwill impairment necessary, which would affect reported results 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the integration of the Polish bank proceeds as planned, the group could benefit from an additional core market and higher profitability from 2027 1.
  • High capital levels and a cautious distribution policy could provide flexibility for strategic transactions and higher returns 1.
  • The digital platform and fintech partnerships could support fee income growth and lower distribution costs 1.

What would break the thesis

  • One-off effects in 2026 could reduce reported profit and delay reaching profitability targets 1.
  • Exposure to climate risks and high-emission sectors could increase credit losses if the transition accelerates 1.
  • Competitive pressure from local banks and fintechs could limit margin expansion in retail 1.

What to watch

  • Development of the CET1 ratio after the consolidation of Erste Bank PolskaQ1 2026
  • Achievement of the return on tangible equity target2026
  • Level of risk costs in Poland and the other markets2026
  • Progress in reducing exposure to assets with material transition risknext annual report

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The group provides universal banking services with retail, corporate and investment activities, focused on Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia and, since 2025, Poland 1. The George digital platform, available to private clients in several countries, is central to the digitalisation strategy, and API partnerships with fintechs aim to extend reach to new customer segments 1. The group emphasises financial education and support for clients' financial health as part of its financial inclusion offering 1.

The business model relies mainly on net interest and fee income, and the 2026 targets assume higher operating income and an improved cost-income ratio if the macroeconomic environment stays favourable and margins remain stable 1. The group has a restrictive dividend policy, with a payout ratio capped at a maximum of 10% of net profit, leaving room to reinvest capital 1.

Operations are subject to climate-related portfolio risks, particularly through loans secured by property, and management seeks to reduce exposure through responsible financing policies and decarbonisation strategies for high-emission sectors 1.

Segments

Retail and private clients

The retail segment serves private clients in the core markets and relies on the George digital platform, which provides access to personalised products and supports financial education 1.

Corporate and investment

The corporate segment finances companies and property projects, including renewable energy projects, and its exposure to high-emission sectors is subject to climate transition analysis 1.

Market context

The group operates in Central and Southeastern Europe, where, according to the report, the macroeconomic environment has improved and lending has grown, and management expects loan volume growth of more than 5% for 2026 1.

Risks to the forecast include geopolitical and macroeconomic developments, regulation and changes in the competitive environment; indirect effects of international conflicts, such as market volatility or supply chain disruptions, cannot be ruled out 1.

Trends

  • Consolidation of Erste Bank Polskamixed

    The acquisition and consolidation of the Polish bank adds a core market but creates one-off effects on net interest income, operating expenses and risk costs in 2026, if integration proceeds as planned 1.

  • Digitalisation of banking servicestailwind

    Clients increasingly expect digital services, and the George platform and API partnerships could support customer growth and lower costs if adoption remains high 1.

  • Climate transitionheadwind

    Assets with material transition risk under the base scenario form a significant part of the portfolio, and clients' adaptation or energy costs could affect their repayment capacity 1.

  • Regulation and capital requirementsmixed

    The high CET1 ratio offers flexibility for distributions or M&A, but regulatory requirements and compliance costs may limit that flexibility 1.

Competitive position

The group competes with international and local banks in its core markets, particularly in retail and digital banking, where fintechs play an increasingly active role 1.

The group's competitive position rests on its broad regional presence and digital platform, but pressure on margins and on digital development costs remains a challenge in the competitive environment 1.

  • UniCredit

    European bank with presence in Central and Southeastern Europe, competing directly in corporate and retail segments in the region.

  • Raiffeisen Bank International

    Austrian banking group with similar operations in several Central and Southeastern European markets.

  • OTP Bank

    Hungarian bank with regional activity, competing in retail and lending to small and medium-sized enterprises.

  • Regional fintechs

    Digital companies offering payment and credit services that compete with the group's digital platform for younger clients.

News & filings

In the press

Annual reports (ESEF)

Sources

  1. [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Erste Group Bank AG · 31 Dec 2025

Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.