olivLaw · European equity research
Erbud Spółka Akcyjna ERB.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLERBUD00012 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
Erbud is a Polish construction group active in housing, hotels, shopping centres, wind farms, motorways and industrial halls, working mainly on fixed-price contracts. Its gross margin on construction contracts fell sharply in 2022 compared with the prior year, making contract profitability the main point of attention. The group also states an ESG strategy with investments in renewable energy and timber construction.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Erbud Spółka Akcyjna (ERB.WA) stock was 24.20 PLN (−2.02% on the day), with beta 0.70, 52-week range 18.06–34.80 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 22.60 – 25.09
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.64 · band width 10.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 22.27 / 25.72
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.57 / 0.61
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.0% | −0.6% | +5.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +7.6% | −4.2% | +11.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.4% | +4.3% | −14.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −14.2% | +7.5% | −21.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −16.4% | +9.9% | −26.3 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | −36.3% | +49.8% | −86.2 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | −65.9% | +42.8% | −108.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.2 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +39.2% | +24.3% |
| Net income | 46.7 m | 8.8 m | 8.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −81.2% | −5.7% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2022 · 31 Dec 2022
- Cash
- 164.0 m PLN
- Financial debt
- unavailable PLN
- Net debt
- unavailable PLN
- Equity
- 665.5 m PLN
- Total assets
- 2.0 bn PLN
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.42x
- ROE
- 1.2%
- ROA
- 0.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.2 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Gross profit | 193.5 m | 293.3 m | 222.1 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Operating income | 70.6 m | 90.8 m | 20.9 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Interest expense | 13.4 m | 14.1 m | 35.9 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Pre-tax income | 64.3 m | 85.4 m | -1.6 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Income tax | 13.9 m | 64.1 m | -12.6 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Net income | 46.7 m | 8.8 m | 8.3 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 292.6 m | 363.2 m | 164.0 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Inventories | 25.7 m | 67.4 m | 160.2 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Current assets | 990.1 m | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 91.6 m | 167.9 m | 195.9 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Goodwill | 40.7 m | 41.2 m | 41.6 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 12.5 m | 9.9 m | 13.5 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Total assets | 1.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Current liabilities | 813.7 m | 940.5 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Equity | 310.5 m | 684.7 m | 665.5 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
Cash flow · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 304.1 m | -173.4 m | -135.6 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Investing cash flow | -23.0 m | -143.7 m | -52.2 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Financing cash flow | -136.7 m | 387.7 m | -11.4 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Dividends paid | 2.0 m | 3.3 m | 500.0 k | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Share repurchases | 16.5 m | 70.0 m | 31.0 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
17% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.2% | 23 (vs peers) | 38% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 38% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 52 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet21/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial23/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Erbud Spółka Akcyjna (ERB.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2022; data up to 2022-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.9 bn PLN in 2022; YoY growth 24.3%; net margin 0.2%; ROE 1.5%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 0.2%
- Interest coverage: 0.6x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
| ASM.WAAsm Group Spółka Akcyjna | 7.2 m | — | -6.6% | -1.2% | +1.9% | −70% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ERB.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Erbud is a Polish construction group active in housing, hotels, shopping centres, wind farms, motorways and industrial halls, working mainly on fixed-price contracts. Its gross margin on construction contracts fell sharply in 2022 compared with the prior year, making contract profitability the main point of attention. The group also states an ESG strategy with investments in renewable energy and timber construction.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a broad range of project types, from housing to motorways and wind farms, which diversifies its revenue sources 1.
- The group applies an internal system for controlling project targets and budgets, with checks by internal audit 1.
- The group states an ESG strategy and investments in renewable energy, which can be a long-term advantage 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Renewable energy projects and timber construction could generate new long-term contracts.
- Developing property rental activity, as the investment property reclassification began, could diversify revenue 1.
- Rising infrastructure demand could support the group's contract volume.
Threats
- Pressure from material and labour costs could reduce margins on fixed-price contracts.
- Higher financing costs could affect the group's ability to repay debt at maturity.
- Strong competition for large projects could push prices down and limit profitability.
Risks
- Loss-making contractshigh
The group sets up provisions for contracts that could close at a loss, and in 2022 these provisions affected the result 1. A larger number of such contracts could weigh on profitability.
- Liquidity and debt maturitiesmedium
The group's debt maturities are spread across several intervals, and payments to subcontractors and suppliers could put pressure on liquidity 1.
- Subcontractor execution riskmedium
The group relies on subcontractors, and delays or problems on their side could generate extra costs and penalties.
- Currency risklow
The group has transactions and assets in foreign currencies, exposed to exchange rate differences 1. Currency movements could influence the financial result.
- Climate risklow
The group says it does not currently identify a significant impact from climate risks, but these could affect sites and long-term costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If margins stabilise after the 2022 decline, the group's profitability could gradually recover, and diversification across project types could support this 1.
- Investments in renewable energy and timber construction could open growth segments over the long term.
- A varied contract portfolio and an internal project control system could help the group select and execute work more efficiently.
What would break the thesis
- A gross margin of 4% in 2022, compared with 11% before, shows that contract profitability could remain under pressure 1.
- Fixed-price contracts expose the group to cost increases, and provisioning for loss-making contracts could continue.
- Debt and short-term payment obligations could limit financial flexibility if financing becomes more expensive 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of the gross margin on construction contracts2023
- Level of provisions for loss-making contractsnext annual report
- Evolution of debt and payment maturities2023
- Progress of renewable energy and timber construction projectsnext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Erbud group carries out construction work under fixed-price contracts, including housing (including entire estates), hotels, SPA facilities, shopping centres, wind farms, power plants, production halls and motorways. Revenue from construction contracts is recognised over time as work progresses, using either a results-based or an expenditure-based method. Revenue from construction contracts in 2022 was 3 341 874 thousand zł 1.
Payment terms for construction services run from 30 to 180 days from invoice, and part of the billed amounts is withheld by clients as performance guarantees, capped at a maximum of 10% of contract remuneration and released within at most 5 years after completion 1. The group uses subcontractors, recorded as supplier liabilities, and could face execution risk if they are delayed.
Provisions for contracts with negative margins are booked in full once indications appear that a contract will close at a loss 1. The group monitors climate risks and, at the reporting date, does not identify a significant impact of climate factors on its activity 1.
Segments
Residential and commercial construction
The segment covers housing, hotels, shopping centres and SPA facilities, mainly executed on fixed-price contracts with revenue recognised over time.
Infrastructure and energy
The segment covers motorways, power plants and wind farms. The group states that it pursues renewable energy projects as part of its ESG strategy 1.
Industrial halls and timber construction
The activity includes production halls and timber construction, which the group explicitly names as development directions in its ESG strategy 1.
Market context
The Polish construction market is linked to public and private investment in housing, infrastructure and energy. Revenue of 3 341 874 thousand zł from construction contracts in 2022 shows the scale of the group's activity 1.
Demand in housing and commercial projects depends on financing conditions, and margins on such contracts can be more sensitive to costs and to loss-making contracts, as the fall in gross margin to 4% in 2022 shows 1.
Trends
- Pressure on contract marginsheadwind
The gross margin fell to 4% in 2022 from 11% in the prior year, indicating pressure on the profitability of fixed-price projects 1. If this trend continues, the group's profitability could remain below earlier levels.
- Energy transitiontailwind
The group invests in renewable energy and timber construction projects, which could open new long-term contracts 1.
- Financing costs and debtmixed
The group has loans, issued bonds and lease liabilities, with payment maturities spread across several time intervals 1. Higher financing costs could weigh on net margins.
- Digitalisation of construction processestailwind
The group uses an internal project management system to track progress and budgets, which could improve cost control 1.
Competitive position
Erbud competes with other construction groups in Poland and the region, both in residential projects and in infrastructure and energy. The analysed sources do not list competitors, so market positions cannot be confirmed.
The group's competitive advantage rests on experience with large projects and subcontractor management, but competitive pressure could reduce margins, as the 2022 development suggests 1.
- Other Polish builders of residential and infrastructure projects
Competitors in the same segments, not listed on a US exchange.
- Regional construction groups active in energy
Companies active in energy and infrastructure projects in Central Europe.
- Property developers executing their own contracts
Competition in residential and commercial projects, where the group could compete on price.
- International contractors with Polish subsidiaries
Competitors on large projects, with access to broader financing and resources.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202204 May 2023
- Annual report 202113 Apr 2022
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2022-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Erbud Spółka Akcyjna · 31 Dec 2022
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.