olivLaw · European equity research
Kapsch TrafficCom AG KTCG.VI
Austria · Wiener Börse · ISIN AT000KAPSCH9 · Vertical: Listed companies from Austria
Kapsch TrafficCom AG is a global provider of intelligent traffic solutions, notably electronic tolling, urban traffic management and data-based mobility. The company is currently under pressure: the market has been weak, the shares fell 24.0 % in fiscal 2025/26, and a restructuring plan and a significant liquidity risk weigh on the outlook.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Kapsch TrafficCom AG (KTCG.VI) stock was 3.68 EUR (−0.54% on the day), with market capitalisation 52.6 m EUR, beta 0.29, 52-week range 3.68–6.52 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 32.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.60 – 4.18
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.14 · band width 15.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.16 / 5.12
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.13 / -0.13
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −9.1% | +0.4% | −9.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −20.2% | −3.3% | −16.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −35.4% | +4.0% | −39.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −36.6% | +8.1% | −44.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −43.4% | +10.7% | −54.1 pp | +5.6% |
| 3 years | −61.7% | +50.1% | −111.8 pp | +12.7% |
| 5 years | −77.3% | +43.6% | −120.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 538.8 m | 530.3 m | 430.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −1.6% | −18.8% |
| Net income | 23.2 m | -12.1 m | -18.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −152.2% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -1.72 | -0.85 | -1.31 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 4.3% | -2.3% | -4.3% |
| Free cash flow | 56.1 m | 21.5 m | -13.8 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 23.2 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 67.8 m EUR
- Total assets
- 383.6 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.89x
- ROE
- -24.3%
- ROA
- -4.5%
- FCF margin
- -3.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 538.8 m | 530.3 m | 430.6 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Operating income | 70.3 m | 7.3 m | 5.6 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 18.3 m | 16.5 m | 13.0 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 88.5 m ≈ | 23.8 m ≈ | 18.6 m ≈ | esef· 04 Aug 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 36.5 m | 22.3 m | 17.6 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 36.9 m | -9.6 m | -5.8 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Income tax | 14.6 m | -1.2 m | 11.2 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Net income | 23.2 m | -12.1 m | -18.7 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.72 | -0.85 | -1.31 | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 33.4 m | 47.8 m | 23.2 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Receivables | 131.5 m | 115.4 m | 115.7 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Inventories | 47.8 m | 49.0 m | 39.9 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Current assets | 308.0 m | 297.0 m | 234.3 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 46.0 m | 43.1 m | 37.2 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Total assets | 443.7 m | 449.2 m | 383.6 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 62.9 m | 58.8 m | 55.3 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 210.1 m | 209.2 m | 263.1 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 360.3 m | 363.4 m | 315.8 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Equity | 83.4 m | 85.8 m | 67.8 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 14.2 m | 14.3 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 61.9 m | 27.7 m | -10.2 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Capex | 5.7 m | 6.2 m | 3.5 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 56.1 m ≈ | 21.5 m ≈ | -13.8 m ≈ | esef· 04 Aug 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 43.8 m | -6.5 m | 11.9 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -111.6 m | -6.5 m | -25.4 m | esef· 04 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 52.6 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
25% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -4.3% | 13 (vs peers) | 25% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 8 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -26.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 33% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet3/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial13/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Kapsch TrafficCom AG (KTCG.VI). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 430.6 m EUR in 2026; YoY growth -18.8%; net margin -4.3%; ROE -25.2%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -4.3%
- Interest coverage: 0.3x
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- FCF yield: -26.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Austria · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OMV.VIOmv Aktiengesellschaft | 35.6 bn | 23.4 | 8.9% | 6.3% | −7.2% | +53% / +86% |
| VER.VIVerbund AG | 26.2 bn | 17.6 | 14.7% | 18.6% | −2.8% | +19% / −14% |
| STR.VIStrabag Se | 11.7 bn | 12.8 | 17.2% | 4.9% | +7.4% | +32% / +168% |
| ANDR.VIAndritz AG | 8.1 bn | 17.7 | 19.3% | 5.8% | −5.2% | +33% / +66% |
| VOE.VIvoestalpine AG | 7.1 bn | 17.0 | 5.7% | 2.8% | −4.3% | +12% / +61% |
| EVN.VIEvn AG | 5.5 bn | 12.5 | 6.9% | 14.6% | +3.8% | +15% / +14% |
| ATS.VIAT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik Aktiengesellschaft | 2.5 bn | — | -2.4% | -1.4% | +12.7% | +238% / +346% |
| DOC.VIDO & CO Aktiengesellschaft | 2.4 bn | 22.2 | 24.0% | 4.3% | +7.1% | +12% / +70% |
| CPI.VICPI Europe AG | 2.2 bn | 4.2 | 12.2% | 68.2% | −6.7% | +1% / −17% |
| POST.VIÖsterreichische Post Aktiengesellschaft | 2.2 bn | 16.4 | 18.3% | 4.3% | −2.6% | +6% / +2% |
| WIE.VIWienerberger AG | 1.9 bn | 11.7 | 5.9% | 3.6% | +1.2% | −40% / −32% |
| LNZ.VILenzing Aktiengesellschaft | 1.8 bn | — | -11.8% | -5.2% | −2.3% | −48% / −65% |
| MMK.VIMayr-Melnhof Karton Aktiengesellschaft | 1.3 bn | 17.1 | 3.6% | 1.9% | −4.8% | −21% / −41% |
| POS.VIPorr AG | 1.2 bn | 10.7 | 12.9% | 1.8% | +1.7% | +6% / +167% |
| AMAG.VIAMAG Austria Metall AG | 1.1 bn | 33.4 | 4.7% | 2.3% | +2.1% | +34% / +19% |
| BMAG.VIPIERER Mobility AG | 1.1 bn | 1.8 | 638.9% | 58.9% | −46.3% | +85% / −47% |
| FQT.VIFrequentis AG | 790.7 m | 28.1 | 15.5% | 4.9% | +20.8% | −14% / +111% |
| ETS.VIEuroTeleSites AG | 745.4 m | 22.3 | 8.8% | 11.9% | +3.7% | −6% / +34% |
| AGR.VIAGRANA Beteiligungs-Aktiengesellschaft | 722.9 m | — | -3.6% | -1.2% | −7.9% | −3% / −15% |
| FACC.VIFacc AG | 602.4 m | 28.4 | 9.1% | 2.2% | +11.3% | +22% / +127% |
| ROS.VIRosenbauer International AG | 591.1 m | 11.9 | 17.4% | 3.5% | +9.4% | +35% / +104% |
| 1AST.VIASTA Energy Solutions AG | 467.7 m | 15.5 | 42.3% | 4.3% | +8.3% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SBO.VISbo AG | 456.6 m | 19.4 | 5.2% | 5.2% | −18.8% | +5% / −30% |
| SEM.VISemperit Aktiengesellschaft Holding | 379.1 m | 902.5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | −2.1% | +39% / +28% |
| ACAG.VIAustriacard Holdings AG | 347.8 m | 25.6 | 11.4% | 4.1% | −8.2% | +76% / +65% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for KTCG.VI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Kapsch TrafficCom AG is a global provider of intelligent traffic solutions, notably electronic tolling, urban traffic management and data-based mobility. The company is currently under pressure: the market has been weak, the shares fell 24.0 % in fiscal 2025/26, and a restructuring plan and a significant liquidity risk weigh on the outlook 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a long-standing global presence and a reputation as a technology leader in tolling and traffic management.
- The modular portfolio allows solutions to be adapted to different client requirements, from systems to services.
- The governance structure is controlled by a family, which may provide strategic continuity over the long term.
Weaknesses
- Revenue fell significantly in fiscal 2025/26, and this decline was not fully offset by liquidity measures.
- The company operates under a restructuring plan with obligations to comply with financial ratios.
- The share price was volatile and fell considerably in the second half of the year, reflecting investor uncertainty.
Opportunities
- Demand for tolling and urban traffic systems could grow if environmental regulation expands.
- Vertical integration through tolling as a service and entry into new markets such as connected vehicles could open additional revenue sources.
- Client-requested changes during projects and upgrades of existing systems could generate recurring revenue.
Threats
- Uncertainty in key markets and geopolitical volatility could delay new contracts.
- If the restructuring does not succeed, pressure on financing could seriously affect operations.
- Competition in public tenders and pricing pressure could limit margins.
Risks
- Liquidity riskhigh
The company names liquidity risk as the most significant, with an obligation to comply with the restructuring timetable and defined financial ratios.
- Project execution riskhigh
Market pressure in tenders and project implementation remained elevated, which could lead to delays or additional costs.
- Geopolitical and market riskmedium
Geopolitical volatility and uncertainty in target markets could postpone public orders and affect planning.
- Dependence on public contractsmedium
Revenue depends heavily on projects with authorities and infrastructure operators, making decision timing hard to predict.
- Change of control risklow
Certain financing arrangements and client contracts contain change of control clauses, which could lead to their termination if the shareholding changes.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for sustainable mobility and road tolling strengthens, the company could benefit from its technology portfolio and global reputation.
- Orders already contracted and the sale of the tolltickets subsidiary could support revenue and EBIT in the coming year.
- If the restructuring succeeds, easing liquidity pressure could reopen room for investment and growth.
What would break the thesis
- If the market remains weak, revenue could keep falling, and the company could struggle to meet the ratios in its restructuring plan.
- The share price has fallen considerably over the past year, showing investor uncertainty about the prospects for recovery.
- If public tenders are postponed or become more competitive, margins could come under further pressure.
What to watch
- Development of revenue and EBIT against the prior year, in line with management's guidance2026/27
- Compliance with financial ratios and the timetable of the Restrukt-IBR restructuring plan2026/27
- Completion of the sale of the majority of tolltickets GmbH and the effect of deconsolidation on EBITnext 10-K
- New orders in tolling and urban traffic management, and progress in the new demand management and connected vehicle markets2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Kapsch TrafficCom presents its business model as contributing to lower emissions and congestion through distance-based tolling systems, traffic management, environmental zones and demand management. The company describes end-to-end solutions, from design and construction to operation and maintenance, as well as project change requests that can be billed separately 1. The shares have been listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange, Prime Market segment, since 26 June 2007 1.
The company belongs to a family-controlled group: KAPSCH-Group Beteiligungs GmbH holds the majority of shares, and as of 31 March 2026 no other shareholder held more than 10 % of voting rights 1. Management has three board members, and the supervisory board has six members, four elected by the general meeting and two sent by the works council 1.
The annual report indicates that revenue fell significantly in fiscal 2025/26 and that the company is in a restructuring process under the Restrukt-IBR framework, which requires compliance with a defined timetable and financial ratios 1. Management stated that, based on already contracted orders, revenue and EBIT in fiscal 2026/27 are expected to be above the prior-year levels, without publishing a quantitative forecast 1.
Segments
Traffic systems and projects
This area includes electronic tolling systems, urban traffic management, environmental zones and projects delivered as complete solutions. The source indicates that projects can generate additional revenue through client-requested changes during implementation and through extensions or upgrades of existing systems 1.
Tolling as a Service and data services
The report mentions growth potential through vertical integration, namely providing tolling as a service, and entry into pioneer markets such as demand management and connected vehicles, which could complement the systems business 1.
Market context
The company describes the market as having structural demand for sustainable, connected and digitally managed mobility, driven by the need to reduce emissions and urban congestion. Public investment in transport digitalisation, often supported by national or European programmes, is identified as a source of opportunities 1. At the same time, management described the recent market as disappointing and expects weak conditions to persist into fiscal 2026/27 1.
The report highlights geopolitical volatility and uncertainty in several markets as factors that complicate planning 1. The company also mentioned agreeing the sale of the majority of its subsidiary tolltickets GmbH, which it expects to have a positive effect on EBIT through deconsolidation, subject to approvals 1.
Trends
- Sustainable mobility and environmental regulationtailwind
The need to cut emissions and limit urban pollution creates demand for environmental zones, distance-based tolling and intelligent traffic management. If such regulations expand, they could support orders for the company's solutions 1.
- Digitalisation of public transport investmenttailwind
The shift of public investment towards digitalisation and transport modernisation, often financed by national or European programmes, opens new markets for traffic systems and data services 1.
- Weak market and delayed projectsheadwind
Management described the market as weak and expects the period of uncertainty to continue, which could delay new contracts and reduce the volume of new projects 1.
- Restructuring and liquidity pressuremixed
The company operates under a restructuring plan that requires compliance with financial ratios and a timetable; if these conditions are not met, pressure on financing could increase 1.
Competitive position
The source provided does not explicitly name the company's competitors. However, the business description shows that it competes in electronic tolling, traffic management and mobility solutions, where a reputation as a technology provider and the ability to deliver complex projects matter 1.
The company's stated advantage rests on a modular technology portfolio, decades of global experience and a reputation for quality and innovation leadership, which could help it win projects where clients request integrated solutions 1.
- Regional tolling and traffic system providers
The source does not name specific competitors; such providers may compete for local public contracts for tolling and urban traffic management.
- Transport systems integrators
Large technology and engineering companies offering complete road infrastructure solutions could compete for the same public tenders.
- Mobility data solution providers
Data platforms and connected-vehicle players, cited as target markets, also attract new actors not named in the source.
- Traffic management system operators
Specialist suppliers of signal and urban flow control may compete for city modernisation projects.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202604 Aug 2026
- Annual report 202501 Jul 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Kapsch TrafficCom AG · 31 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.