olivLaw · European equity research
MEX POLSKA S.A. MEX.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLMEXPL00010 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
MEX POLSKA S.A. operates a group of restaurants and bars in several large Polish cities, with concepts such as The Mexican and Pankejk. Net revenue of 81.84 mn PLN in 2022 shows a clear increase, but margins remain thin and inflation and cost pressures put the sustainability of this momentum in question.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, MEX POLSKA S.A. (MEX.WA) stock was 3.39 PLN (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 25.9 m PLN, P/E 4.5 on diluted EPS of 0.76 PLN over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.18%, beta 0.28, 52-week range 3.14–5.76 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.3
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.11 – 3.50
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.72 · band width 12.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.37 / 3.72
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.00 / -0.02
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.3% | −0.6% | −1.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.9% | −4.2% | +3.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −13.3% | +4.3% | −17.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −12.4% | +7.5% | −19.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −4.0% | +9.9% | −13.9 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | −12.2% | +49.8% | −62.0 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | +51.3% | +42.8% | +8.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 2.9, median 3.1, max 3.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 41.5 m | 47.2 m | 81.8 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +13.7% | +73.4% |
| Net income | -12.2 m | 6.2 m | 5.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −6.1% |
| Diluted EPS | -1.38 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +8.6% |
| net % | -29.3% | 13.1% | 7.1% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2022 · 31 Dec 2022
- Cash
- 7.6 m PLN
- Financial debt
- 1.0 m PLN
- Net debt
- -6.6 m PLN
- Equity
- 12.9 m PLN
- Total assets
- 64.5 m PLN
- Debt / equity
- 0.08x
- Current ratio
- 0.63x
- ROE
- 56.0%
- ROA
- 8.9%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 41.5 m | 47.2 m | 81.8 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Cost of revenue | 42.7 m | 41.1 m | 68.5 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Gross profit | -1.2 m | 6.1 m | 13.3 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Operating income | -10.7 m | 8.6 m | 9.9 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Interest expense | 4.1 m | 1.3 m | 2.2 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Pre-tax income | -14.4 m | 7.3 m | 7.9 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Income tax | -647.8 k | -47.2 k | 615.9 k | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Net income | -12.2 m | 6.2 m | 5.8 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.38 | 0.70 | 0.76 | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.01 | — | 0.14 | esef· 10 May 2023derived |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.4 m | 7.5 m | 7.6 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Inventories | 761.4 k | 1.3 m | 1.4 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Current assets | 7.7 m | 11.9 m | 11.7 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 6.5 m | 6.4 m | 8.2 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Goodwill | 8.0 m | 8.0 m | 8.0 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 11.0 k | 12.8 k | 9.1 k | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Total assets | 54.0 m | 66.0 m | 64.5 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Long-term debt | 7.3 m | 2.5 m | 1.0 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Current liabilities | 19.4 m | 21.1 m | 18.4 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Equity | 445.2 k | 7.8 m | 12.9 m | esef· 10 May 2023verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 7.7 m | 7.6 m | 7.6 m | esef· 10 May 2023derived |
Cash flow · PLN
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 25.9 m PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 200.8% | 100 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.1% | 67 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.5x | 46 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 4.5x | 84 (vs peers) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.2% | 60 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet28/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality88/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial60/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial84/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MEX POLSKA SPÓŁKA AKCYJNA (MEX.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2022; data up to 2022-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 81.8 m PLN in 2022; YoY growth 73.4%; net margin 7.1%; ROE 56.3%.
The estimated value range is 4.84–13.37 PLN per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 8.41 PLN, the price of 3.39 PLN leaves a potential of 148.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 59.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 200.8%
- P/E (TTM): 4.5x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.6x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| MEX.WAMex Polska Spółka Akcyjna | 25.9 m | 4.5 | 56.3% | 7.1% | +73.4% | −6% / −8% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MEX.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 2.22 Total return -31% · Per year -31% | 3.90 Total return 20% · Per year 20% | 5.85 Total return 78% · Per year 78% |
| 3 years | 2.63 Total return -11% · Per year -4% | 5.16 Total return 69% · Per year 19% | 8.42 Total return 169% · Per year 39% |
| 5 years | 3.12 Total return 14% · Per year 3% | 6.82 Total return 134% · Per year 18% | 12.13 Total return 301% · Per year 32% |
- Exit P/E± 1.29
- Net margin± 0.90
- Annual revenue growth± 0.67
- Annual dilution± 0.08
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
MEX POLSKA S.A. operates a group of restaurants and bars in several large Polish cities, with concepts such as The Mexican and Pankejk. Net revenue of 81.84 mn PLN in 2022 1 shows a clear increase, but margins remain thin and inflation and cost pressures put the sustainability of this momentum in question.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Margins are thin, and costs for food, rent and staff are rising faster than the prices charged 1.
- Activity is concentrated in one market and one type of business, with no geographic diversification 1.
- The group has a complex structure with numerous subsidiaries, which increases administrative costs 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Inflationary pressure on marginshigh
Rising food and utility costs could reduce margins, and passing prices on to customers could reduce visit frequency 1.
- Debt and bank collateralhigh
Loans are secured by a blank promissory note, guarantees from subsidiaries and assignment of receivables; if payments fail, the bank could enforce these securities 1.
- Dependence on lease contractsmedium
Losing a good location when a lease expires could affect the revenue of a venue 1.
- Alcohol sales licencesmedium
Losing the authorisation to sell alcoholic drinks could affect bar profitability 1.
- Tax changes and labour costslow
Frequent changes in tax and social security rules could increase the company's costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If restaurant revenue keeps growing and margins stabilise, the company could quickly rebuild its self-financing capacity, as the positive operating cash flow in 2022 suggests 1.
- A lower net debt and growing equity could give the company more flexibility in negotiations with banks 1.
- If its differentiated concepts keep attracting loyal customers, the portfolio could support better prices and cautious expansion through franchising 1.
What would break the thesis
- If inflation and rent costs keep rising, thin margins could stay under pressure and profit could decline 1.
- Dependence on a single market and on consumption in large cities could make the company vulnerable to an economic slowdown 1.
- High collateral demanded by banks could limit financial flexibility if results deteriorate 1.
What to watch
- Trend in gross margin and food costsQ1 2027
- Level of net debt and evolution of bank loans2027
- Number of venues and any new lease contractsnext 10-K
- Evolution of restaurant and bar revenue after the consumer recovery2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The main activity of the Mex Polska Group is gastronomy, organised into several formats: casual dining restaurants under The Mexican concept, Pankejk restaurants, Prosty Temat restaurants, Pijalnia Wódki i Piwa bistros and Chicas & Gorillas shot bars 1. The parent company is based in Łódź, and the venues operate in cities such as Warsaw, Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław, Kraków, Gdańsk or Lublin 1. The group operates through numerous subsidiaries and includes franchised outlets 1.
The group structure is extensive, with dozens of subsidiaries, many of them dedicated to a single venue or geographic area 1. This organisation allows each unit to be managed separately, but it increases administrative complexity and dependence on premises leases 1.
In 2022 the company stated it did not plan new venues outside Poland and lost control of a German subsidiary that was put into insolvency 1. Activity therefore remains focused on the domestic market.
Segments
The Mexican casual dining restaurants
The Mexican concept is the main table-service restaurant format in the portfolio, operated in several large cities 1.
Pankejk and Prosty Temat concepts
Pankejk and Prosty Temat restaurants complement the offer with more accessible formats, operated by the group through dedicated subsidiaries 1.
Bars and shot bars
Pijalnia Wódki i Piwa and Chicas & Gorillas bring revenue from alcoholic drinks and evening consumption; alcohol sales are described as essential to venue profitability, and the group protects its licences carefully 1.
Market context
The Polish restaurant market is where the company runs all its activity, and demand depends on the overall economic situation, wage levels and inflation 1. The sources do not provide data on total market size.
Rising prices for food, rents and utilities have pressured the company's margins; lease contracts are indexed annually to inflation, and part of these costs is passed on to customers through higher prices 1.
Trends
- High inflation and operating costsheadwind
Rising costs for food, rents and utilities could reduce margins, while lower-income customers may visit less often, which could reduce sales 1.
- Consumer recovery after the pandemictailwind
The 2020 closures hit revenue hard; the resumption of activity and government support helped stabilise the company in 2022 1.
- War in Ukrainemixed
The conflict may reduce consumers' willingness to dine out and the number of foreign tourists, but it may also bring new customers and employees from among refugees 1.
- Interest rates and financing costheadwind
Loans with fixed interest rates taken by the company carry a high margin, and any increase in rates would raise financing costs 1.
Competitive position
The analysed sources do not identify direct competitors of the company and do not give market shares. Competition is described only in general terms, as the risk of losing venues when lease contracts expire 1.
The company relies on its reputation as a reliable rent payer and on long-term contracts, which reduce the risk of other operators taking over good locations 1.
- Other restaurant operators in Poland
The sources do not name competitors; competition appears only as the risk of taking over premises when leases expire.
- Casual dining restaurant operators
Competition in the casual dining segment is not detailed in the sources.
- Bar and shot bar operators
Competition in the bar segment is not detailed in the sources.
- Restaurant franchise chains
The analysed sources contain no information on franchise competitors.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202210 May 2023
- Annual report 202103 May 2022
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2022-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / MEX POLSKA S.A. · 31 Dec 2022
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.