olivLaw · European equity research
Mostostal Warszawa S.A. MSW.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLMSTWS00019 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
Mostostal Warszawa is a construction group performing engineering works and general contractor assignments, with an order book of 3,282,754 thousand PLN at the end of 2023. The group reported a net profit of 17,279 thousand PLN in 2023, and its relevance lies in the size of its order book and its reliance on intragroup financing from the majority shareholder.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Mostostal Warszawa S.A. (MSW.WA) stock was 3.71 PLN (−3.39% on the day), with market capitalisation 74.4 m PLN, P/E 3.2 on diluted EPS of 1.17 PLN over the last 12 months, beta 0.62, 52-week range 3.16–8.18 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 44.0
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.43 – 4.56
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.25 · band width 28.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.75 / 4.89
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / 0.04
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.1% | −0.6% | −0.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +14.9% | −4.2% | +19.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −22.7% | +4.3% | −27.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −53.3% | +7.5% | −60.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −48.2% | +9.9% | −58.1 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | −46.2% | +49.8% | −96.1 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | −46.2% | +42.8% | −89.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 5.6, median 6.2, max 8.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +23.7% | +3.8% |
| Net income | 15.0 m | 18.0 m | 23.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +20.1% | +30.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.75 | 0.90 | 1.17 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +20.0% | +30.0% |
| net % | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 282.1 m PLN
- Financial debt
- unavailable PLN
- Net debt
- unavailable PLN
- Equity
- 110.8 m PLN
- Total assets
- 1.2 bn PLN
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.04x
- ROE
- 22.7%
- ROA
- 2.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Gross profit | 118.1 m | 112.7 m | 92.0 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Operating income | 39.9 m | 36.4 m | 24.6 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Interest expense | 12.2 m | 17.6 m | 18.8 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 35.4 m | 27.3 m | 25.6 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Income tax | 10.7 m | 8.1 m | 8.4 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Net income | 15.0 m | 18.0 m | 23.4 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.75 | 0.90 | 1.17 | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 240.8 m | 205.7 m | 282.1 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Receivables | — | 330.2 m | 369.2 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Inventories | 51.4 m | 40.3 m | 57.7 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Current assets | 791.6 m | 832.2 m | 934.3 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 43.7 m | 75.9 m | 89.4 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.1 m | 1.2 m | 772.0 k | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Total assets | 922.2 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 256.1 m | 373.5 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 741.0 m | 755.8 m | 900.4 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 841.4 m | 942.6 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Equity | 80.7 m | 96.0 m | 110.8 m | esef· 07 May 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 20.0 m | 20.0 m | 20.0 m | esef· 07 May 2024derived |
Cash flow · PLN
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 74.4 m PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.4% | 41 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 20 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 3.2x | 84 (vs peers) | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet8/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial41/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial84/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Mostostal Warszawa S.A. (MSW.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.7 bn PLN in 2023; YoY growth 3.8%; net margin 1.4%; ROE 26.8%.
The estimated value range is 7.46–20.58 PLN per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 12.94 PLN, the price of 3.71 PLN leaves a potential of 248.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 71.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 3.2x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 1.3x
- Current ratio: 1.0x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| MSW.WAMostostal Warszawa S.A. | 74.4 m | 3.2 | 26.8% | 1.4% | +3.8% | −46% / −42% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MSW.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 2.18 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 3.85 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 5.80 Total return 56% · Per year 56% |
| 3 years | 2.08 Total return -44% · Per year -18% | 4.15 Total return 12% · Per year 4% | 6.86 Total return 85% · Per year 23% |
| 5 years | 1.99 Total return -46% · Per year -12% | 4.47 Total return 20% · Per year 4% | 8.12 Total return 119% · Per year 17% |
- Exit P/E± 1.04
- Net margin± 0.73
- Annual revenue growth± 0.60
- Annual dilution± 0.06
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Mostostal Warszawa is a construction group performing engineering works and general contractor assignments, with an order book of 3,282,754 thousand PLN at the end of 2023 1. The group reported a net profit of 17,279 thousand PLN in 2023 1, and its relevance lies in the size of its order book and its reliance on intragroup financing from the majority shareholder 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Large order book at the end of 2023, giving visibility on future activity 1.
- Group structure with specialized subsidiaries, including engineering and design services, supporting execution of complex contracts 1.
- Management states that the group has sufficient funds for at least 12 months after the balance sheet date 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Client litigationhigh
The group is a party to several court cases, and their outcome may affect provisions and financial results 1.
- Revision of contract budgetshigh
If actual costs exceed budgets, provisions for contract losses may be needed 1.
- Dependence on intragroup financingmedium
Payment of interest and repayment of majority shareholder loans could limit financial flexibility 1.
- Warranty and repair reservesmedium
Reserves for warranty work depend on estimates that may be revised if unforeseen defects appear 1.
- Unconfirmed subcontractor worklow
Work performed by subcontractors but not yet invoiced at the balance sheet date may differ from final values 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- Development of the order book and newly won contracts2024
- Outcome of court proceedings and the level of provisions2024
- Repayment and interest payments to the majority shareholder2024
- Contract margins and budget revisionsnext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Mostostal Warszawa group operates in construction, mainly as general contractor for turnkey facility projects 1. The parent controls subsidiaries such as Mostostal Kielce, AMK Krakow (engineering, design and project management) and Mostostal Power Development 1. In 2023 the group earned a gross profit on sales of 91,961 thousand PLN and a net profit of 17,279 thousand PLN 1.
As consortium leader, the group carries out some long-term contracts as a joint venture, and revenue is recognized over time by comparing costs incurred to total expected costs 1. Warranty provisions are generally set at 0.5% to 1% of contract revenue, and subcontractor costs not yet invoiced are estimated at the balance sheet date 1.
The parent belongs to a group led by majority shareholder Acciona Construccion SA, which granted loans to the group; in 2023 interest paid was 7,523 thousand PLN 1. Management consists of members linked to the majority shareholder, and the group stated that no circumstances point to a threat to going concern 1.
Segments
General contracting (turnkey contracts)
The main segment is construction of facilities as general contractor, with a consistent order book at 31.12.2023 1. Revenue is recognized over time as work is performed, so results are sensitive to project budget revisions 1.
Market context
The group operates in construction for infrastructure and industrial projects, where large, long-duration contracts dominate revenue 1. The order book of 3,282,754 thousand PLN at 31.12.2023 indicates significant coverage of future activity, with active participation in several public tender procedures 1.
Operating margin depends on budget accuracy and subcontractor management, and client disputes and court cases can affect results 1. The source provides no comparative market size data, so conclusions on market share remain limited 1.
Trends
- Solid order booktailwind
An order book of 3,282,754 thousand PLN at end-2023 gives visibility on future revenue if execution stays on schedule 1.
- Participation in new tenderstailwind
The group takes part in several tenders that could generate new contracts in the coming period, which may support continuity of activity 1.
- Dependence on majority shareholder financingheadwind
Loans granted by the majority shareholder and interest payments, including partial repayments in 2024, show reliance on intragroup funding 1.
- Estimation risk in contractsmixed
Revenue recognition and provisions for loss-making contracts depend on budget estimates, which could be revised if costs rise 1.
Competitive position
The provided source does not name the group's competitors. From the structure of its activity it appears the market is competitive, with rivalry for public tenders and general construction contracts 1.
The group's apparent competitive edge is the combination of general contractor capacity, engineering services of subsidiary AMK Krakow, and membership of an international group 1. Without comparison data in the source, conclusions remain cautious 1.
- Competitors not named in the provided source
The source does not name direct competitors, so no trading symbols are given.
- General construction contractors in the Polish market
Companies competing for the same public tenders and industrial turnkey contracts.
- Engineering and project management firms
Competition for design and management services that complement construction contracts.
- International builders with Polish subsidiaries
Foreign groups active in the same segments, potentially with greater financial resources.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202307 May 2024
- Annual report 202216 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Mostostal Warszawa S.A. · 31 Dec 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.