olivLaw · European equity research
Nordea Bank Abp NDA-FI.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
Nordea Bank Abp is the largest banking group in the Nordic region, operating in Finland, Denmark, Norway and Sweden and serving retail, corporate and institutional clients. In fiscal 2025 the bank kept a solid capital position, with a CET1 ratio of 15,7, and this matters now because falling interest rates and geopolitical tensions are shaping its income and risks.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Nordea Bank Abp (NDA-FI.HE) stock was 16.50 EUR (+0.79% on the day), with market capitalisation 57.1 bn EUR, P/E 11.9 on diluted EPS of 1.39 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.70%, beta 0.92, 52-week range 14.29–18.01 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 14.90 – 17.06
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.74 · band width 13.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 16.94 / 16.51
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.24 / -0.37
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −3.3% | −0.6% | −2.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −5.7% | −4.2% | −1.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +5.4% | +4.3% | +1.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +2.6% | +7.5% | −4.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +15.6% | +9.9% | +5.7 pp | −1.9% |
| 3 years | +63.5% | +49.8% | +13.7 pp | +5.4% |
| 5 years | +52.3% | +42.8% | +9.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 7.3, median 9.4, max 11.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 5.0 bn | 4.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −4.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.44 | 1.39 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −3.5% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- unavailable EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 32.4 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 654.4 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 14.8%
- ROA
- 0.8%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
Balance sheet · EUR
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 57.1 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
17% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 11.56 – 25.59 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E11.56 – 25.59 (Mid 15.79)24 companies used · median multiple 11.4x · quartiles 8.3x – 18.4xALMA.HE, APETIT.HE, ASPO.HE, ATRAV.HE, BIOBV.HE, CAPMAN.HE, CONSTI.HE, DIGIA.HE, ELEAV.HE, ELISA.HE, ENENTO.HE, ETTE.HE, FORTUM.HE, FSECURE.HE, GLA1V.HE, GRK.HE, HARVIA.HE, ICP1V.HE, ILKKA.HE, INVEST.HE, KALMAR.HE, KAMUX.HE, KCR.HE, KEMIRA.HE
- Dividend discount (DDM)12.78 – 17.43 (Mid 14.75)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.9x | 55 (vs peers) | 63% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.7% | 82 (on a fixed band) | 38% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial82/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial55/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Nordea Bank Abp (NDA-FI.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 14.8%.
The estimated value range is 12.17–21.51 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 15.27 EUR, the price of 16.50 EUR leaves a potential of -7.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -8.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.7%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KEMIRA.HEKemira Oyj | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 10.5% | 6.6% | −6.6% | −17% / +4% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NDA-FI.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Nordea Bank Abp is the largest banking group in the Nordic region, operating in Finland, Denmark, Norway and Sweden and serving retail, corporate and institutional clients. In fiscal 2025 the bank kept a solid capital position, with a CET1 ratio of 15,7 1, and this matters now because falling interest rates and geopolitical tensions are shaping its income and risks.
SWOT
Strengths
- A dominant market position in the Nordic countries, with a broad customer base and solid capital, which gives flexibility in distributing surplus to shareholders 1.
- Geographic and product diversification, which reduces dependence on a single economy or business segment 1.
- A solid liquidity indicator and diversified funding access, supported by good credit ratings and strong deposits in home markets 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on net interest income makes revenue sensitive to lower policy rates, even though some loans have floors 1.
- High exposure to credit risk, which accounts for most of the risk exposure amount, makes profitability sensitive to portfolio quality 1.
- Uneven economic development across the Nordic countries can complicate a uniform growth strategy across the region 1.
Opportunities
- Continued digitalisation of services and use of artificial intelligence could lower costs and widen the customer base, if the related risks are managed 1.
- Economic recovery in Sweden and monetary easing could stimulate credit demand and trading volumes 1.
- Surplus capital could be used for strategic acquisitions or share buybacks, as long as it stays within the capital policy 1.
Threats
- Geopolitical tensions and sabotage risks against critical infrastructure could affect confidence in the economy and raise security costs 1.
- A deterioration of the European economy or of exports could increase credit losses if vulnerable sectors are hit 1.
- Regulatory pressure, including new capital requirements and possible state intervention in certain sectors, could limit the bank's flexibility 1.
Risks
- Credit riskhigh
Sectors and clients vulnerable to weaker demand or disruptive technology could generate credit losses if the economy cools 1.
- Lower interest ratesmedium
Rate cuts could compress net interest income, given that most loans carry floating rates 1.
- Geopolitical and cyber riskhigh
Cyber attacks and sabotage of critical infrastructure could disrupt operations and affect client confidence 1.
- Regulatory requirementsmedium
Higher capital requirements following authority decisions, some of which the bank contests, could reduce capacity for distributions to shareholders 1.
- Model and artificial intelligence riskmedium
Internal risk models and the use of artificial intelligence could produce errors if not properly validated, affecting capital calculations 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The capital position is solid and the bank has the capacity to distribute capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, if profit holds 1.
- The dominant position in the Nordic region and geographic diversification offer a stable base for long-term revenue 1.
- Liquidity and funding indicators are comfortable, which reduces the risk of funding pressure in difficult periods 1.
What would break the thesis
- Rate cuts could compress the interest margin, and revenue could fall if credit volumes do not compensate 1.
- High exposure to credit risk and sectors vulnerable to trade tensions could generate larger losses than anticipated 1.
- Regulatory pressure and rising capital requirements could limit flexibility in distributions to shareholders 1.
What to watch
- Trend in credit portfolio quality and loan loss provisions2026
- Execution of the 500 million euro share buyback programme, which must end by May 2026May 2026
- Development of net interest income as central banks cut rates2026
- Impact of the new CRR3 market risk rules, which take effect on 1 January 20272027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Nordea is a Finnish public limited company and the parent of the Nordea group, whose shares are listed on Nasdaq Helsinki, Stockholm and Copenhagen, while its ADRs trade in the USA 1. The group offers retail, corporate and investment banking services in the Nordic countries and has specialised subsidiaries for mortgage lending, such as Nordea Kredit in Denmark and Nordea Hypotek in Sweden 1. The strategy rests on a dominant market position in the region, supported by attractive products and digital offerings 1.
The bank's capital policy aims for strong returns to shareholders, with a buffer of 150 points above the CET1 regulatory requirement 1. Surplus capital is used for strategic acquisitions and share buybacks, which reflects an active distribution model towards shareholders 1. The bank operates as an integrated Nordic group, and corporate financing and household savings form the basis of its income 1.
The group's capital structure is monitored by the Asset & Liability Committee and the risk committee, and the funding plan includes senior debt and additional capital issuance, including Tier 1 notes issued in 2025 in Swedish kronor, Norwegian kroner and dollars 1. This mix of capital and funding supports the bank's ability to finance growth and meet regulatory requirements 1.
Segments
Credit and allocated capital
Allocated capital across the segments stood at 32,4 billion euro at the end of 2025, anchoring the group's operational decisions 1. Credit risk represents 83 percent of the risk exposure amount, which makes the loan portfolio the main source of both risk and return 1.
Operational risk and market risk
Operational risk accounts for about 13 percent of the risk exposure amount and includes compliance risk and cyber security, where the bank has increased investment in resilience 1. Market risk is small at about 3 percent of the risk exposure amount, while net interest income remains sensitive to rate cuts, although floating-rate loans have floors that protect against severe downside 1.
Liquidity and funding
The group maintained a solid liquidity position, with a liquidity coverage ratio of 171 percent at the end of 2025, supported by high-quality liquid assets and strong deposits in home markets 1. Diversified access to funding across all markets and solid credit ratings underpin this position 1.
Market context
Nordea operates in the banking markets of Finland, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, where economies grew in 2025 with differing dynamics and moderate inflation 1. The bank's shares rose about 53 percent on Nasdaq Helsinki in 2025, ahead of the Nasdaq OMXH index, which shows investor interest in the stock 1. The rate environment eased, with the European Central Bank cutting its deposit rate to 2,0 percent 1.
The regional market is influenced by geopolitical volatility and US trade policy, which created uncertainty in the first half of 2025 before tensions eased 1. Housing demand is uneven, with prices falling in Finland and rising in Norway, factors that matter for the mortgage portfolio 1.
Trends
- Lower policy ratesmixed
Central banks have cut rates, which compresses the interest margin but could also stimulate credit demand and trading volumes if the easing continues 1.
- Trade and geopolitical uncertaintyheadwind
Trade tensions and sabotage risks against critical infrastructure could weaken confidence in the economy and affect credit quality if they worsen 1.
- Digitalisation and artificial intelligencemixed
The bank is investing in digital products and new risk models, yet the use of artificial intelligence brings model and governance risks that must be managed 1.
- CRR3 and Basel IV regulationtailwind
The new CRR3 rules took effect in 2025 and introduce a capital floor, and the bank reports that Basel IV requirements are already met, which reduces regulatory uncertainty 1.
Competitive position
Nordea competes with other large banks in the Nordic region, which also hold strong positions in their home markets, and a comparison of total return shows rivals with different performance over 2019–2025 1. Competition is especially intense in mortgage lending, digital services and corporate clients 1.
The bank's differentiation rests on regional scale, solid capital and access to funding in international markets, and over the longer term competitive pressure will depend on how quickly both traditional banks and new digital entrants adapt 1.
- Danske Bank
Major Danish bank and direct rival in Nordic markets, whose shares are not US-listed, so no ticker is given.
- Swedbank
Swedish banking group active in the Baltic countries and Sweden, an important rival in regional retail banking.
- Handelsbanken
Swedish bank with a decentralised decision model that competes with Nordea in corporate and retail segments.
- DNB Bank
Largest bank in Norway, competing directly in the Norwegian market where Nordea has a significant presence.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202521 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Nordea Bank Abp · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.