olivLaw · European equity research
NEUCA S.A. NEU.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLTRFRM00018 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
NEUCA S.A. is a Polish group focused on pharmaceutical distribution and services for pharmacies, with a clinical research component active in Poland and several European countries. Its consolidated 2022 report shows total liabilities above 2.8 billion PLN in the comparative period, as the group prepares for the new insurance accounting standard (IFRS 17), which would materially change reported assets and liabilities. A key point to watch is reliance on bank financing with variable interest rates.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, NEUCA S.A. (NEU.WA) stock was 694.00 PLN (+0.87% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.0 bn PLN, P/E 23.3 on diluted EPS of 29.80 PLN over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.66%, beta 0.34, 52-week range 655.00–850.00 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 41.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 687.72 – 714.78
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.23 · band width 3.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 724.76 / 733.59
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -7.79 / -7.74
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.7% | −0.6% | −1.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −13.0% | −4.2% | −8.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −3.7% | +4.3% | −8.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −14.7% | +7.5% | −22.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −12.4% | +9.9% | −22.3 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | −4.9% | +49.8% | −54.8 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | −24.2% | +42.8% | −67.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 20.4, median 21.8, max 25.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.2 bn | 9.9 bn | 11.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +6.7% | +13.9% |
| Net income | 141.8 m | 150.7 m | 136.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +6.3% | −9.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 31.98 | 32.51 | 29.80 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +1.7% | −8.3% |
| net % | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2022 · 31 Dec 2022
- Cash
- 208.4 m PLN
- Financial debt
- 5.9 m PLN
- Net debt
- -202.6 m PLN
- Equity
- 930.5 m PLN
- Total assets
- 4.8 bn PLN
- Debt / equity
- 0.01x
- Current ratio
- 0.92x
- ROE
- 15.1%
- ROA
- 3.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.2 bn | 9.9 bn | 11.2 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Cost of revenue | 8.3 bn | 8.8 bn | 10.0 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Gross profit | 919.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Operating income | 212.1 m | 198.2 m | 241.3 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Interest expense | 28.5 m | 17.3 m | 56.5 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Pre-tax income | 193.4 m | 202.2 m | 202.0 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Income tax | 50.2 m | 49.7 m | 54.4 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Net income | 141.8 m | 150.7 m | 136.4 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Diluted EPS | 31.98 | 32.51 | 29.80 | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 4.4 m | 4.6 m | 4.6 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Dividend per share | 8.58 | 10.00 | 11.50 | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 22.6 m | 64.6 m | 208.4 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Receivables | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Inventories | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Current assets | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.3 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 401.3 m | 391.1 m | 427.3 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Goodwill | 427.9 m | 649.4 m | 726.5 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 109.6 m | 125.4 m | 132.8 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Total assets | 3.6 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.8 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Long-term debt | 598.0 k | 4.7 m | 5.9 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.9 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Equity | 771.4 m | 879.7 m | 930.5 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 4.3 m | 4.4 m | 4.4 m | esef· 04 May 2023derived |
Cash flow · PLN
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 324.7 m | 300.2 m | 335.9 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Investing cash flow | -146.9 m | -145.5 m | -180.2 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Financing cash flow | -234.1 m | -112.8 m | -6.6 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Dividends paid | 37.1 m | 44.2 m | 51.6 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
| Share repurchases | 18.2 m | 55.0 m | 73.3 m | esef· 04 May 2023verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.0 bn PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 22.8% | 80 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.2% | 38 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.3x | 43 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 10 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 23.3x | 26 (vs peers) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.1% | 59 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet29/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality64/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial59/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial26/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NEUCA S.A. (NEU.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2022; data up to 2022-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.2 bn PLN in 2022; YoY growth 13.9%; net margin 1.2%; ROE 15.8%.
The estimated value range is 151.35–331.71 PLN per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 227.17 PLN, the price of 694.00 PLN leaves a potential of -67.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -205.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 22.8%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- P/E (TTM): 23.3x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| NEU.WANeuca S.A. | 3.0 bn | 23.3 | 15.8% | 1.2% | +13.9% | −17% / −17% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NEU.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 471.14 Total return -31% · Per year -31% | 829.51 Total return 22% · Per year 22% | 1,244.78 Total return 82% · Per year 82% |
| 3 years | 547.44 Total return -16% · Per year -6% | 1,075.60 Total return 62% · Per year 17% | 1,758.92 Total return 162% · Per year 38% |
| 5 years | 636.09 Total return 0% · Per year 0% | 1,394.69 Total return 114% · Per year 16% | 2,485.42 Total return 275% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 268.90
- Net margin± 188.23
- Annual revenue growth± 141.78
- Annual dilution± 15.82
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
NEUCA S.A. is a Polish group focused on pharmaceutical distribution and services for pharmacies, with a clinical research component active in Poland and several European countries. Its consolidated 2022 report shows total liabilities above 2.8 billion PLN in the comparative period, as the group prepares for the new insurance accounting standard (IFRS 17), which would materially change reported assets and liabilities. A key point to watch is reliance on bank financing with variable interest rates.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Variable-rate debt exposes the group to higher financing costs when reference rates rise 1.
- The large volume of trade receivables and payables makes the balance sheet sensitive to late payments and working capital management 1.
- The change of insurance accounting standard introduces a reconciliation requirement that can complicate short-term interpretation of results 1.
Opportunities
- Rising demand for pharmacy services and clinical studies could expand the group's business volume if the market develops favourably 1.
- Higher interest charged on loans to pharmacies could improve margins if credit risk stays under control 1.
- Expanding clinical research operations across more countries could open new revenue sources 1.
Threats
- A rise in interbank rates could significantly increase the group's debt costs and affect net profit 1.
- An unfavourable zloty exchange rate against EUR and USD could raise the cost of foreign-currency purchases and lease liabilities 1.
- Late payments by partner pharmacies could affect receivables recovery and liquidity 1.
Risks
- Exposure to variable interest rateshigh
Debt carrying variable interest tied to WIBOR can raise financing costs if interbank rates increase 1.
- Credit risk on receivablesmedium
The group has significant exposure to trade receivables and loans to pharmacies, although the source considers the risk low 1.
- Currency risklow
Purchases and debt denominated in EUR, USD and GBP expose the group to zloty exchange rate movements, currently without hedging 1.
- Liquidity riskmedium
Short-term trade and bank obligations are concentrated, and the group depends on access to credit lines 1.
- Effects of the IFRS 17 transitionmedium
The change of standard materially alters the balance sheet and may make comparison with earlier periods more difficult 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the group maintains its relationships with partner pharmacies and controls credit risk, distribution and lending could support stable long-term revenue 1.
- The clinical research component, extended across several countries, could add a complementary revenue source if demand from the pharmaceutical industry remains strong 1.
- Higher interest charged on loans to pharmacies could improve net margin if the group's debt does not grow at the same pace 1.
What would break the thesis
- If reference rates keep rising, the cost of variable-rate debt could materially reduce the group's profitability 1.
- A large volume of trade receivables could become a problem if pharmacies delay payments or if collateral does not cover the exposure 1.
- The move to a new accounting standard could make it harder to assess the group's real performance in the short term 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of bank financing costs and variable-rate debt2027
- Actual impact of IFRS 17 on the first annual report under the new standard2023
- Level of trade receivables and pharmacy payment delaysnext 10-K
- Revenue trend of clinical research subsidiaries in Europe and the USA2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The NEUCA group includes the parent and several consolidated subsidiaries, some in Poland and others in the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Spain, Italy, Germany and the USA, so reporting is prepared in several functional currencies and consolidated results rely on uniform accounting policies 1. The core activity relates to trade in pharmaceutical products and support for partner pharmacies, and the group lends to a segment of pharmacy customers to develop their businesses 1. Beyond these lines, the group has a clinical research business run through dedicated subsidiaries in Europe and the USA 1. The group uses credit limits and collateral for customers, and management assesses credit risk on trade receivables as low 1.
The funding structure is dominated by bank borrowings and trade obligations to suppliers, and a significant part of debt carries variable interest tied to WIBOR, which exposes the group to rising financing costs 1. The group uses receivables factoring and has pledged assets, including trade receivables with a carrying amount of 297 500 thousand PLN, as security for borrowings 1.
The 2022 annual report is prepared under accounting principles applicable in the European Union, and management concluded there were no indications that going concern was at risk 1. The transition to IFRS 17 is presented as a major accounting effect, mainly on insurance-related assets and liabilities, although the impact on equity and profit is smaller 1.
Segments
Pharmaceutical distribution and pharmacy services
This is the central segment, where product distribution and support for pharmacies generate the main volume of trade receivables and payables 1. Trade receivables and supplier obligations in this segment are large relative to the rest of the balance sheet 1.
Market context
The group operates in pharmaceutical distribution and pharmacy services in Poland and Central Europe, where access to credit limits and bank financing shapes the ability to support large receivables volumes 1. Adoption of the new accounting standards and the zloty's exchange rates against EUR and USD are factors that could influence reported results 1.
Demand for clinical research services depends on the volume of studies run by the pharmaceutical industry, and study timing can vary, which could affect that segment's revenue 1.
Trends
- Transition to IFRS 17mixed
The new standard for insurance contracts would materially reduce reported assets and liabilities, although the effect on equity is smaller 1. If this change is reflected consistently in future reports, comparability with prior periods could be affected 1.
- Rising reference interest ratesheadwind
Debt with variable interest tied to WIBOR means any rise in interbank rates passes directly into the group's financing costs 1. The group tries to limit this effect by managing working capital 1.
- Higher rates on loans grantedtailwind
Loans to pharmacies largely carry interest above the cost of external financing, which can support the group's net margin when financing conditions tighten 1.
- Currency fluctuationsheadwind
Foreign-currency purchases are a small fraction of the total, but the zloty's rate against EUR and other currencies can affect trade payables and leases denominated in foreign currency 1. The group does not currently hedge this risk, which it considers limited 1.
Competitive position
The source provided does not explicitly identify competitors, so the competitive analysis is limited to what follows from the structure of the business. Pharmaceutical distribution in Poland and other European countries normally involves other drug distributors and pharmacy chains, but these players are not named in the available report 1.
The group's differentiation against competitors appears to rest on the combination of distribution, financing for partner pharmacies and the clinical research component, but the source does not allow a comparison of market shares 1.
- Polish and European pharmaceutical distributors
Not identified in the available source; they are known players in the market, but the data does not allow a quantitative comparison.
- Clinical research organisations (CROs)
Competitors in the clinical research segment, not explicitly identified in the source provided.
- Pharmacy chains and networks
They can influence the purchasing and credit terms of partner pharmacies, but are not mentioned in the report.
- Pharmacy financing providers
Indirect competition that may condition pharmacies' access to credit and alternative financing.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202204 May 2023
- Annual report 202105 Apr 2022
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2022-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / NEUCA S.A. · 31 Dec 2022
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.