olivLaw · European equity research
NEWAG Spółka Akcyjna NWG.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLNEWAG00012 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
NEWAG is a Polish maker of locomotives and rail rolling stock, based in Nowy Sacz, that combines manufacturing with repair and modernisation services for rail vehicles. Its consolidated group, described in the 2023 annual report, also includes leasing and property management activities.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, NEWAG Spółka Akcyjna (NWG.WA) stock was 92.60 PLN (−1.17% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.2 bn PLN, P/E 43.9 on diluted EPS of 2.11 PLN over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.90, 52-week range 84.90–128.00 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 33.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 92.66 – 103.34
- below the lower band · %B -0.01 · band width 10.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 98.93 / 103.89
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.67 / -0.98
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −10.6% | −0.6% | −10.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.6% | −4.2% | +0.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −16.3% | +4.3% | −20.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −1.8% | +7.5% | −9.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −2.5% | +9.9% | −12.4 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | +349.5% | +49.8% | +299.7 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | +300.9% | +42.8% | +258.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 10.2, median 13.2, max 26.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 917.5 m | 963.9 m | 1.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +5.0% | +27.7% |
| Net income | 71.7 m | 22.8 m | 95.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −68.2% | +318.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.58 | 0.51 | 2.11 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −67.7% | +313.7% |
| net % | 7.8% | 2.4% | 7.7% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 483.6 m PLN
- Financial debt
- 2.9 m PLN
- Net debt
- -480.7 m PLN
- Equity
- 802.3 m PLN
- Total assets
- 1.7 bn PLN
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 1.48x
- ROE
- 12.6%
- ROA
- 6.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 917.5 m | 963.9 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Cost of revenue | 744.6 m | 815.5 m | 968.0 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Gross profit | 172.9 m | 148.4 m | 263.1 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Operating income | 93.7 m | 53.6 m | 141.8 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Interest expense | 18.4 m | 43.3 m | 38.8 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 79.4 m | 21.7 m | 113.0 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Income tax | 8.1 m | -1.1 m | 17.9 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Net income | 71.7 m | 22.8 m | 95.2 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.58 | 0.51 | 2.11 | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.50 | 0.25 | 0.00 | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 127.7 m | 45.8 m | 483.6 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Receivables | 276.1 m | 354.2 m | 210.8 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Inventories | 480.6 m | 534.6 m | 492.9 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Current assets | 903.4 m | 935.9 m | 1.2 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 455.1 m | 442.1 m | 431.5 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Goodwill | 18.7 m | 17.0 m | 17.0 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 10.7 m | 7.5 m | 4.7 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Total assets | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Accounts payable | 211.4 m | 225.6 m | 620.7 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Long-term debt | 8.0 m | 0 | 2.9 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 557.5 m | 579.0 m | 802.3 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 704.2 m | 712.2 m | 928.7 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Equity | 697.3 m | 709.2 m | 802.3 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 45.4 m | 44.6 m | 45.1 m | esef· 01 May 2024derived |
Cash flow · PLN
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.2 bn PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 24.2% | 80 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.7% | 72 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.7x | 33 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 57 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 43.9x | 11 (vs peers) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet43/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality77/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial11/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NEWAG Spółka Akcyjna (NWG.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.2 bn PLN in 2023; YoY growth 27.7%; net margin 7.7%; ROE 12.6%.
The estimated value range is 13.45–37.11 PLN per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 23.34 PLN, the price of 92.60 PLN leaves a potential of -74.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -296.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 24.2%
- Net margin: 7.7%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 43.9x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| NWG.WANEWAG Spółka Akcyjna | 4.2 bn | 43.9 | 12.6% | 7.7% | +27.7% | −8% / +291% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NWG.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 60.51 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 106.49 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 159.73 Total return 72% · Per year 72% |
| 3 years | 71.78 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 140.83 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 230.02 Total return 148% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 85.14 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 186.25 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 331.23 Total return 258% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 35.21
- Net margin± 24.65
- Annual revenue growth± 18.38
- Annual dilution± 2.07
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
NEWAG is a Polish maker of locomotives and rail rolling stock, based in Nowy Sacz, that combines manufacturing with repair and modernisation services for rail vehicles. Its consolidated group, described in the 2023 annual report, also includes leasing and property management activities.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has an integrated structure combining rolling stock production with repairs, modernisation and control systems.
- Management states the group's going-concern basis, with no serious doubts identified.
- Specialised subsidiaries in electronics and leasing support a broader offer of complete solutions for customers.
Weaknesses
- The report gives no data on market share or order volumes, which makes the competitive position hard to assess.
- Shareholding is concentrated, and a concert agreement among shareholders could limit the diversification of influence.
- A property segment is in liquidation, signalling a reduction of non-core activities.
Opportunities
- Modernisation of the rail fleet could generate steady demand for repair and modernisation services.
- Expanding the control systems offer through the specialised subsidiary could add value for customers.
- Rolling stock leasing could give rail operators access to new equipment if these structures are developed.
Threats
- Competition from international rolling stock makers could pressure margins on large contracts.
- Changes in accounting and reporting rules could bring extra adaptation costs.
- Dependence on public rail investment could slow orders if budgets tighten.
Risks
- Dependence on rail transport ordershigh
Revenue depends on fleet purchases and services, which can be affected by public budgets and operator decisions.
- Concentrated shareholdingmedium
A shareholder agreement controls most votes, which could limit minority shareholders' influence over decisions.
- Adapting to new standardslow
New IFRS standards and reporting changes may require extra effort and could alter how results are presented.
- Subsidiary liquidationlow
The liquidation of a property subsidiary could have effects on results and on the group's portfolio.
- Competitive pressuremedium
International competitors with larger resources could affect the winning of major contracts and price levels.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for rail fleet modernisation holds, combining manufacturing with repair services could support recurring revenue and operational stability.
- The group's structure, with subsidiaries in electronics and leasing, could allow complete offers to customers and long-term relationships with them.
- Management's going-concern statement and the absence of serious doubts could support investor confidence in the group's stability.
What would break the thesis
- If budgets for rail transport decline, new orders could slow and affect results in the main segment.
- Concentrated shareholding could limit transparency and minority shareholders' influence over strategy.
- The lack of data on market share and order backlog could make a fair assessment of the group's prospects difficult.
What to watch
- Trend in new rolling stock orders and the contract backlog2026
- Results of the repair and modernisation segment, measured by EBITDA2026
- Completion of the Galeria Sadecka liquidation and effects on the property segmentnext 10-K
- Changes in the shareholder structure and the shareholder agreement2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the annual report for fiscal 2023, the parent company NEWAG S.A.'s core business is the production of rail locomotives and rolling stock, complemented by repair and modernisation of other transport equipment, metal structures and mechanical processing of metal parts 1. The company is headquartered in Nowy Sacz and was entered in the National Court Register in 2001 1. The consolidated group consists of NEWAG S.A. and five subsidiaries, including NEWAG INTECO DS S.A., based in Gliwice, which operates in electronic components and control apparatus 1.
As of 31 December 2023, the shareholder structure is dominated by a concert agreement among several shareholders that together control most of the votes at the general meeting 1. Board and management members are referred to by their roles, and this profile does not record the names of private individuals 1.
The consolidated financial statements were prepared under IFRS as endorsed by the European Union, in Polish zloty, on a going-concern basis, with management identifying no circumstances that would cast serious doubt on this assumption 1. Operating segments are reported separately, with EBITDA as the main performance measure 1.
Segments
Segment I: repair, modernisation and rolling stock production
The largest segment covers repair and modernisation of rail rolling stock, production of rolling stock and control systems, carried out by NEWAG S.A. and NEWAG INTECO DS S.A. 1.
Segment II: property rental and management
This segment covers rental and management of owned and leased properties, run through Galeria Sadecka Sp. z o.o. in liquidation, which has been in liquidation since September 2021 1.
Segment III: financial holding activities
The segment includes NEWAG IP Management and two NEWAG Lease companies, engaged in finance leasing, lending and management of intellectual property 1.
Market context
The annual report does not give data on the size of the rail rolling stock market or NEWAG's market share, which limits assessment of its competitive position from this source alone 1. The described activities depend on fleet purchases and maintenance demand, which in turn depend on rail transport investment 1.
The reviewed document does not detail market trends or contract volumes, so any conclusion about sector prospects would require additional sources such as press releases or later reports 1.
Trends
- Accounting standards in transitionmixed
The group assessed new IFRS standards, including IFRS 17 and amendments to IAS 12, which it considered to have no significant effect on the 2023 statements, and standards pending endorsement are not expected to have a material effect 1.
- Going-concern assumptiontailwind
At the reporting date, management identified no circumstances pointing to a risk to the group's ability to continue as a going concern, which supports the stated operational stability 1.
- Liquidation of a property subsidiarymixed
Galeria Sadecka has been in liquidation since 2021, which reduces the group's property-related activities and focuses the portfolio on rail operations 1.
- Concentrated shareholdingheadwind
A shareholder agreement controls most of the votes, which could shape strategic decisions and the attraction of new capital, depending on how relations among the parties develop 1.
Competitive position
The annual report does not identify the group's competitors or provide comparative market share information, so the competitive landscape must be completed from external sources 1. Manufacturing and modernisation of rolling stock involves rivalry with other producers of locomotives and rail vehicles, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe.
From the perspective of the document reviewed, competitive advantage cannot be quantified, but integrating manufacturing with maintenance services and control systems through the NEWAG INTECO DS subsidiary could support customer retention 1.
- Alstom
French rail rolling stock maker competing for locomotive and rolling stock supply on European markets; not named in the source report.
- Stadler Rail
Swiss rail vehicle manufacturer active in markets close to the group's; not named in the source report.
- Siemens Mobility
Siemens group division specialising in rail systems and rolling stock; a potential competitor for large equipment contracts.
- CRRC
Chinese rail rolling stock group present in several international markets; not named in the source.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202301 May 2024
- Annual report 202210 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / NEWAG Spółka Akcyjna · 31 Dec 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.