olivLaw · European equity research
Outokumpu Oyj OUT1V.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
Outokumpu produces stainless steel, largely from recycled material and ferrochrome, for customers in Europe and the Americas. The company launched its EVOLVE strategy for 2026–2030, which places it at the centre of discussions on the green transition of the steel industry, as the CBAM mechanism took effect in January 2026.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Outokumpu Oyj (OUT1V.HE) stock was 4.50 EUR (−2.09% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.0 bn EUR, dividend yield 5.78%, beta 1.12, 52-week range 3.61–6.19 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 37.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.35 – 5.15
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.19 · band width 16.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 5.14 / 5.29
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.17 / -0.18
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −11.5% | −0.6% | −10.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.8% | −4.2% | −11.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −23.6% | +4.3% | −28.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +0.4% | +7.5% | −7.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +26.7% | +9.9% | +16.8 pp | −1.2% |
| 3 years | +13.9% | +49.8% | −36.0 pp | +6.8% |
| 5 years | −20.5% | +42.8% | −63.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.9 bn | 5.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −8.0% |
| Net income | -40.0 m | -137.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.09 | -0.31 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -0.7% | -2.5% |
| Free cash flow | -26.0 m | -40.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 362.0 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 519.0 m EUR
- Net debt
- 157.0 m EUR
- Equity
- 3.4 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 5.7 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.15x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- -3.8%
- ROA
- -2.3%
- FCF margin
- -0.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.9 bn | 5.5 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 5.7 bn | 5.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 232.0 m | 189.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | 15.0 m | 11.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -51.0 m | -134.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -89.0 m | -174.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -49.0 m | -36.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -40.0 m | -137.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.09 | -0.31 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.25 | 0.26 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 313.0 m | 362.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 492.0 m | 457.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.0 bn | 5.7 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 246.0 m | 519.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.7 bn | 3.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 444.4 m | 441.9 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 147.0 m | 79.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 173.0 m | 119.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -26.0 m ≈ | -40.0 m ≈ | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -218.0 m | -125.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -118.0 m | 97.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 110.0 m | 116.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 34.0 m | 0 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.0 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
31% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.54 – 4.82 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)3.54 – 4.82 (Mid 4.08)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -3.1% | 8 (vs peers) | 33% |
| Net margin · Quality | -2.5% | 15 (vs peers) | 20% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -2.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.8% | 83 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality11/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial83/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Outokumpu Oyj (OUT1V.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.5 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -8.0%; net margin -2.5%; ROE -3.8%.
The estimated value range is 3.54–4.82 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 4.08 EUR, the price of 4.50 EUR leaves a potential of -9.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -10.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.8%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -3.1%
- Net margin: -2.5%
- FCF yield: -2.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| OUT1V.HEOutokumpu Oyj | 2.0 bn | — | -3.8% | -2.5% | −8.0% | +11% / +4% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for OUT1V.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Outokumpu produces stainless steel, largely from recycled material and ferrochrome, for customers in Europe and the Americas. The company launched its EVOLVE strategy for 2026–2030, which places it at the centre of discussions on the green transition of the steel industry, as the CBAM mechanism took effect in January 2026 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in responsible stainless steel, with high recycled content and a carbon footprint well below the industry average 1.
- Vertical integration through the Ferrochrome segment and the company's own Kemi mine, giving control over a key raw material 1.
- Clear strategy for 2026–2030, with climate targets based on science 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Risks
- Raw material supply riskhigh
The supply chain includes suppliers in regions where forced labour or child labour risks may arise, which could lead to operational disruption 1.
- Cyclical demandmedium
Dependence on distributors and industry makes volumes and margins sensitive to the economic cycle 1.
- Accuracy of sustainability reportingmedium
The company identifies data inaccuracy and delayed updates as major risks that could affect investor confidence 1.
- Evolution of CBAMmedium
If the mechanism is not extended or is applied unevenly, the advantage for low-emission steel could be smaller than the company expects 1.
- Investment disciplinelow
The capex cap and the minimum return requirement could limit growth projects if the market deteriorates 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company could benefit from growing demand for steel with a low carbon footprint, if industrial customers keep reducing emissions in their supply chains 1.
- Vertical integration through Ferrochrome and the Kemi mine could support margins if raw material prices remain volatile 1.
- The EVOLVE strategy, if executed, could shift the portfolio towards products with higher added value 1.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on distributors and industrial sectors could make revenue vulnerable in a period of economic slowdown 1.
- Risks linked to supply from sensitive regions could lead to disruption or additional compliance costs 1.
- If CBAM is not extended to finished products, the competitive advantage could remain limited 1.
What to watch
- How CBAM is applied and whether it is extended to finished products2026
- Progress towards the target of cutting emissions intensity by 42% versus 20162030
- Execution of the EVOLVE strategy and volumes of higher-value products2026
- Quality of sustainability reporting and the IT systems used for data collectionnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Outokumpu is a stainless steel producer positioned as a leader in responsible steel, whose main product is stainless steel delivered mainly as hot- and cold-rolled strip and plate products 1. The business model is built on the circular economy, with most raw materials being recycled steel, and operations are organised into three segments: Europe, Americas and Ferrochrome 1. In 2025 the company delivered about 1.8 million tonnes of stainless steel and produced about 382,000 tonnes of ferrochrome 1.
The company mines chromite at its Kemi mine in Finland and buys nickel, molybdenum and recycled material from external suppliers, with a focus on low-emission materials 1. It had 8,605 employees in 2025 1. Medium- and long-term climate targets include reducing emissions intensity and reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 1.
The dividend policy aims at a stable and growing distribution to shareholders, while capital expenditure was capped for 2023–2025 1. The EVOLVE strategy emphasises higher-margin products, special alloys and close collaboration with customers 1.
Segments
Europe
Europe is the company's main market, representing 65% of group net sales in 2025 1. The segment mainly serves distributors, metal processing and the automotive sector 1.
Americas
The Americas accounted for 31% of group net sales in 2025 1. The segment covers the same customer categories, with an emphasis on distribution and industry 1.
Ferrochrome
The Ferrochrome segment sits at the start of the value chain and supplies ferrochrome as a raw material to the other segments, with annual output of about 382,000 tonnes in 2025 1.
Market context
Outokumpu's main customer base is made up of distributors, which account for 48% of net sales, followed by metal processing and tubes at 16% and automotive at 10% 1. These customers are sensitive to the cyclicality of the steel industry, which explains the importance of the strategy to build a more resilient portfolio 1.
The company stresses that its stainless steel has a carbon footprint far below the industry average, and CBAM-type regulation could favour producers with low emissions 1. If the mechanism were extended to steel-intensive finished products, the company's position could become even more favourable 1.
Trends
- CBAM mechanismtailwind
The introduction of CBAM from January 2026 is seen by the company as an important step towards fair carbon pricing and an opportunity for low-emission steel 1.
- Cyclicality of the steel industryheadwind
The company built the EVOLVE strategy precisely to reduce sensitivity to the cycle, suggesting that demand fluctuations remain a constant pressure 1.
- Demand for low-emission materialstailwind
Customers seeking to cut emissions in their supply chains may prefer products with a small carbon footprint, and Outokumpu indicates its products support this reduction 1.
- Cost and capex pressuremixed
The capex cap for 2023–2025 and the need for projects with a high minimum return show that financial discipline remains essential 1.
Competitive position
The company operates in a competitive stainless steel sector, where advantage rests on recycled content, carbon footprint and the ability to deliver special alloys 1. Outokumpu presents itself as a leader in responsible steel, but the source document does not name its competitors 1.
Differentiation depends on upstream partnerships, such as those for low-emission nickel and molybdenum, and on innovation in advanced materials 1. Competitors are not named in the source, so direct market-share comparisons cannot be drawn from this document 1.
- Global stainless steel producers
The source does not name individual competitors, so no tickers are listed.
- European stainless steel producers
Competition in Europe is implicit in the company's strategy but not detailed in the source.
- Asian stainless steel producers
Their relevance appears in the carbon footprint comparisons the company cites, without names.
- Ferrochrome and alloy suppliers
Not identified in the source; their role is evident from the company's integrated model.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202404 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Outokumpu Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.