olivLaw · European equity research
Orlen Spółka Akcyjna PKN.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLPKN0000018 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Orlen Spółka Akcyjna (PKN.WA) stock was 130.14 PLN (−7.52% on the day), with market capitalisation 151.1 bn PLN, P/E 7.3 on diluted EPS of 17.81 PLN over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.23%, beta 0.23, 52-week range 91.57–162.60 PLN.
Data as of · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 24.9
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 136.24 – 163.05
- below the lower band · %B -0.23 · band width 17.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 151.93 / 138.04
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -3.75 / -1.70
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −13.4% | −0.6% | −12.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.7% | −4.2% | −8.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −7.2% | +4.3% | −11.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +35.4% | +7.5% | +27.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +32.0% | +9.9% | +22.1 pp | +5.9% |
| 3 years | +99.9% | +49.8% | +50.1 pp | +1.8% |
| 5 years | +47.1% | +42.8% | +4.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 1.9, median 2.9, max 3.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 131.3 bn | 282.4 bn | 372.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +115.0% | +32.0% |
| Net income | 11.1 bn | 39.7 bn | 20.7 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +256.7% | −47.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 26.00 | 34.18 | 17.81 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +31.5% | −47.9% |
| net % | 8.5% | 14.0% | 5.5% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 13.3 bn PLN
- Financial debt
- 10.7 bn PLN
- Net debt
- -2.6 bn PLN
- Equity
- 153.2 bn PLN
- Total assets
- 264.2 bn PLN
- Debt / equity
- 0.07x
- Current ratio
- 1.35x
- ROE
- 14.0%
- ROA
- 7.2%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 131.3 bn | 282.4 bn | 372.8 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Cost of revenue | 110.8 bn | 224.8 bn | 311.8 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Gross profit | 20.6 bn | 57.7 bn | 60.9 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Operating income | 13.9 bn | 48.4 bn | 28.1 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Interest expense | 968.0 m | 2.8 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 13.7 bn | 47.8 bn | 30.3 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Income tax | 2.5 bn | 8.0 bn | 9.6 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Net income | 11.1 bn | 39.7 bn | 20.7 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | 26.00 | 34.18 | 17.81 | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Dividend per share | 3.50 | 3.50 | 5.50 | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.9 bn | 21.0 bn | 13.3 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Receivables | 15.0 bn | 37.9 bn | 39.7 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Inventories | 18.4 bn | 44.3 bn | 32.8 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Current assets | 38.0 bn | 138.8 bn | 93.4 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 55.4 bn | 136.4 bn | 134.7 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Total assets | 106.8 bn | 313.2 bn | 264.2 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Accounts payable | 19.8 bn | 40.2 bn | 41.5 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Long-term debt | 13.7 bn | 12.0 bn | 10.7 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 30.3 bn | 122.8 bn | 69.4 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 54.2 bn | 170.1 bn | 111.0 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Equity | 52.6 bn | 143.1 bn | 153.2 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 427.8 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 02 May 2024derived |
Cash flow · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 15.1 bn | 32.6 bn | 41.9 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Investing cash flow | -11.5 bn | 235.0 m | -36.4 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.0 bn | -14.6 bn | -12.1 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 6.4 bn | esef· 02 May 2024verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 151.1 bn PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 13.5% | 40 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.5% | 56 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 13.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 45 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.3x | 74 (vs peers) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.2% | 60 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet78/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality46/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial60/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial74/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ORLEN SPÓŁKA AKCYJNA (PKN.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 372.8 bn PLN in 2023; YoY growth 32.0%; net margin 5.5%; ROE 14.1%.
The estimated value range is 79.59–188.27 PLN per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 120.84 PLN, the price of 130.14 PLN leaves a potential of -7.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -7.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Interest coverage: 13.1x
- P/E (TTM): 7.3x
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PKN.WAOrlen Spółka Akcyjna | 151.1 bn | 7.3 | 14.1% | 5.5% | +32.0% | +38% / +120% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.0 bn | 37.8 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +18% / +199% |
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 18.9 bn | 35.3 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +18% / +33% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 130.7 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.6 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +6% / +50% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.6 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −15% / −26% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +88% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 999.4 m | 27.2 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +71% / +171% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 874.1 m | 8.2 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −25% / −28% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 588.0 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +37% / +18% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 462.9 m | 7.5 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +4% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 344.7 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −40% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 298.5 m | 11.0 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +2% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 229.7 m | 17.7 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +48% / +14% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 192.4 m | 9.4 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −2% / −22% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 158.1 m | 17.3 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +38% / +52% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 156.9 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −36% / −49% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.9 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −18% / −56% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.6 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 36.3 m | 62.0 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −31% / −46% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.1 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −29% / −43% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.3 m | 17.3 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +6% / +2% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 13.8 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −26% / −45% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PKN.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 85.04 Total return -31% · Per year -31% | 149.66 Total return 20% · Per year 20% | 224.49 Total return 78% · Per year 78% |
| 3 years | 100.87 Total return -10% · Per year -4% | 197.93 Total return 69% · Per year 19% | 323.27 Total return 170% · Per year 39% |
| 5 years | 119.65 Total return 14% · Per year 3% | 261.76 Total return 134% · Per year 19% | 465.51 Total return 301% · Per year 32% |
- Exit P/E± 49.48
- Net margin± 34.64
- Annual revenue growth± 25.83
- Annual dilution± 2.91
AI analysis
The qualitative analysis has not been written for this company yet.
Products, market & competition
The qualitative analysis has not been written for this company yet.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202302 May 2024
- Annual report 202223 May 2023
- Annual report 202123 May 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.