olivLaw · European equity research
PKP CARGO S.A. PKP.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLPKPCR00011 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
PKP CARGO S.A. is the largest rail freight operator in Poland, active in domestic and international freight transport and integrated logistics. Revenue from contracts with customers reached 5491.9 million PLN in 2023, while the group remains under pressure from debt and rolling stock investment as its financing sources have expanded considerably.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, PKP CARGO S.A. (PKP.WA) stock was 9.95 PLN (+1.63% on the day), with market capitalisation 446.4 m PLN, P/E 5.4 on diluted EPS of 1.83 PLN over the last 12 months, beta 0.68, 52-week range 9.22–15.93 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 46.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 9.50 – 10.68
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.38 · band width 11.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 10.33 / 12.14
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.17 / -0.14
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −5.7% | −0.6% | −5.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.5% | −4.2% | +0.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −33.0% | +4.3% | −37.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −25.1% | +7.5% | −32.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −37.2% | +9.9% | −47.1 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | −35.6% | +49.8% | −85.4 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | −45.6% | +42.8% | −88.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 4.4, median 6.2, max 8.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.3 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +26.3% | +1.9% |
| Net income | -225.3 m | 148.0 m | 82.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −44.5% |
| Diluted EPS | -5.03 | 3.31 | 1.83 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −44.7% |
| net % | -5.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 263.7 m PLN
- Financial debt
- unavailable PLN
- Net debt
- unavailable PLN
- Equity
- 3.2 bn PLN
- Total assets
- 8.3 bn PLN
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.55x
- ROE
- 2.6%
- ROA
- 1.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.3 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.5 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Operating income | -208.8 m | 333.3 m | 291.4 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | -264.4 m | 191.8 m | 119.0 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Income tax | -39.1 m | 43.8 m | 36.9 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Net income | -225.3 m | 148.0 m | 82.1 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | -5.03 | 3.31 | 1.83 | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 254.5 m | 181.5 m | 263.7 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Inventories | 164.6 m | 200.8 m | 200.2 m | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Current assets | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Total assets | 7.6 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.3 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.6 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.1 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Equity | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 01 May 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 44.8 m | 44.7 m | 44.9 m | esef· 01 May 2024derived |
Cash flow · PLN
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 446.4 m PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
21% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.5% | 44 (vs peers) | 30% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 5.4x | 79 (vs peers) | 50% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial44/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial79/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
PKP CARGO S.A. (PKP.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.5 bn PLN in 2023; YoY growth 1.9%; net margin 1.5%; ROE 2.6%.
The estimated value range is 11.66–32.18 PLN per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 20.24 PLN, the price of 9.95 PLN leaves a potential of 103.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 50.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 5.4x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.6x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| PKP.WAPkp Cargo S.A. | 446.4 m | 5.4 | 2.6% | 1.5% | +1.9% | −38% / −35% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PKP.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 5.73 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 10.14 Total return 2% · Per year 2% | 15.29 Total return 54% · Per year 54% |
| 3 years | 5.27 Total return -47% · Per year -19% | 10.52 Total return 6% · Per year 2% | 17.47 Total return 76% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 4.85 Total return -51% · Per year -13% | 10.93 Total return 10% · Per year 2% | 19.96 Total return 101% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 2.63
- Net margin± 1.84
- Annual revenue growth± 1.55
- Annual dilution± 0.15
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
PKP CARGO S.A. is the largest rail freight operator in Poland, active in domestic and international freight transport and integrated logistics. Revenue from contracts with customers reached 5491.9 million PLN in 2023, while the group remains under pressure from debt and rolling stock investment as its financing sources have expanded considerably.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position on the Polish rail freight market, with a national network and a diversified customer base.
- Vertical integration through logistics and terminal subsidiaries, enabling full solutions for customers.
- International presence through subsidiaries in several Central European countries, diversifying revenue sources.
Weaknesses
- High level of financial debt, increasing the group's sensitivity to the cost of financing.
- Dependence on relationships with state-controlled entities, which account for a significant share of receivables.
- Currency exposure through EUR and CZK debt and receivables, which can affect financial results.
Opportunities
- Growing demand for green rail transport, if decarbonisation policies support moving freight from road to rail.
- Development of terminals and logistics services could add value and attract new customers.
- European funding for infrastructure and rolling stock could lower investment costs if it is accessed.
Threats
- Competition from road haulage and other rail operators could reduce market share.
- Rising energy and personnel costs could erode margins if they cannot be passed on to customers.
- Changes in public policy or regulation on relations with the state could alter the revenue structure.
Risks
- Indebtedness and cost of financinghigh
Financial debt has risen, and a significant part is tied to variable rates. Higher rates could weigh on profitability and investment capacity.
- Liquiditymedium
Short-term debt and lease obligations could put pressure on liquidity if operating cash flows decline.
- Currency riskmedium
Exposure to EUR and CZK could generate losses from exchange differences if these currencies depreciate.
- Dependence on public-sector customersmedium
A significant part of receivables comes from state-controlled entities, creating dependence on public policy and on payment delays.
- Operational and infrastructure risklow
Dependence on rail infrastructure, rolling stock availability and staff could lead to service interruptions.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for rail freight rises alongside decarbonisation policies, the group, as the leader on the Polish market, could benefit from higher volumes and better pricing.
- Integration with logistics and terminals could support margin growth if full-service offerings become a customer preference.
- Leasing-financed fleet investment could lower operating costs over the long term if utilisation rates rise.
What would break the thesis
- High financial debt and exposure to variable rates could limit investment capacity and reduce net profit if rates stay high.
- Dependence on public-sector customers and payment delays could weigh on cash flows and create liquidity pressure.
- Competition from road haulage and other rail operators could lead to lower tariffs and loss of volumes.
What to watch
- Trend in financial debt and cost of financingnext 10-K
- Level of trade receivables from public-sector entities2027
- Rolling stock investment and use of leasing2027
- Effect of exchange differences on resultsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The PKP CARGO group operates in a single segment, domestic and international rail freight transport, complemented by complex logistics services. According to the 2023 annual report 1, revenue from contracts with customers was 5491.9 million PLN and operating costs were 5155.6 million PLN. The group includes several subsidiaries in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Slovenia, as well as in Germany and Poland, many consolidated under the full method.
The financing structure changed in 2023: financial liabilities reached 2893.8 million PLN 1, and the group used leasing for locomotives, including a sale-and-leaseback transaction for 45 locomotives worth 344.8 million PLN 1. The entity applied the going concern assumption, stating that no material circumstances existed at the reporting date indicating a threat to it.
The group's assets are dominated by rolling stock: railway rolling stock is carried at 4440.3 million PLN 1, and right-of-use assets rose to 1436.1 million PLN 1. Equity remained broadly stable at 3202.5 million PLN 1 against a backdrop of rising debt.
Segments
Rail freight and forwarding
This is the main revenue stream, covering freight transport and forwarding services. In 2023 it generated 4485.7 million PLN of revenue from transport and forwarding services 1.
Integrated logistics and terminals
The group offers complex logistics services and operates transhipment terminals through subsidiaries and joint ventures, including interests in joint terminals, which allows it to provide integrated transport chains.
Market context
The Polish rail freight market is the company's core domain, and its customers include both public-sector and private entities. In 2023 a significant part of trade receivables was linked to entities controlled by the Polish State, representing 31.8% of total trade receivables 1. This means revenue also depends on relationships with public entities.
Activity outside Poland, through subsidiaries in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, extends the geographic reach of services and diversifies customer exposure, but also brings currency risk, as the group is exposed to EUR and CZK 1.
Trends
- Demand for sustainable rail transporttailwind
European policies to cut emissions could support demand for rail freight transport, if infrastructure and traction capacity develop accordingly.
- Cost of financingheadwind
Higher financial debt and exposure to variable WIBOR and EURIBOR rates could make financing investment more expensive if rates stay high.
- Fleet renewalmixed
Investment in locomotives and wagons financed through leasing may improve efficiency but increases the long-term debt burden.
- Currency fluctuationsheadwind
Exposure to EUR and CZK could produce significant exchange differences in results if local currencies depreciate against the Polish zloty.
Competitive position
Competition comes from other rail freight operators in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as road haulage, which competes on short and medium distances. The company's advantage lies in its national network and historic position on the Polish market.
Pressure on prices and market share could increase if competing operators invest faster in rolling stock and terminal capacity, since such investment could shift the balance of forces on the market.
- Central European rail freight operators
Regional competitors on the same international corridors, not listed on a US exchange.
- Road freight hauliers
Competitors on short and medium distances that can take volumes away from rail.
- Terminal and logistics operators
Companies offering integrated transhipment and warehousing services in competition with the group's logistics offering.
- Western European rail operators
Competitors that could enter international routes through partnerships or acquisitions.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202301 May 2024
- Annual report 202209 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / PKP CARGO S.A. · 31 Dec 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.