olivLaw · European equity research
Posti Group Oyj POSTI.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
Posti Group Oyj is the postal and logistics operator in Finland, also active in Sweden and the Baltic states, facing a transformation driven by declining paper mail and growing e-commerce. The company listed in Helsinki in October 2025 and guides for 2026 revenue of 1,400–1,500 million euros, according to.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Posti Group Oyj (POSTI.HE) stock was 11.86 EUR (−0.84% on the day), with market capitalisation 474 EUR, P/E 0.0 on diluted EPS of 590,000.00 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.32, 52-week range 7.85–13.62 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 30.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 11.72 – 13.93
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.07 · band width 17.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 13.07 / 10.36
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.30 / -0.16
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −9.6% | −0.6% | −9.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +14.0% | −4.2% | +18.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +35.5% | +4.3% | +31.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +38.6% | +7.5% | +31.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +50.3% | +9.9% | +40.4 pp | −1.2% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +49.8% | unavailable | +6.8% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +42.8% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 0.0, median 0.0, max 0.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −4.9% |
| Net income | 43.8 m | 23.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −46.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 1,100,000.00 | 590,000.00 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −46.4% |
| net % | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Free cash flow | 82.2 m | 53.4 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 41.4 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 269.4 m EUR
- Net debt
- 228.0 m EUR
- Equity
- 276.9 m EUR
- Total assets
- 1.1 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.97x
- Current ratio
- 0.68x
- ROE
- 8.4%
- ROA
- 2.1%
- FCF margin
- 3.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 68.0 m | 52.3 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 126.7 m | 126.9 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 194.7 m ≈ | 179.2 m ≈ | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 15.5 m | 21.0 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 58.9 m | 35.7 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 15.1 m | 12.2 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 43.8 m | 23.5 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1,100,000.00 | 590,000.00 | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 61.9 m | 41.4 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 225.4 m | 226.9 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 3.6 m | 4.1 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 332.7 m | 285.6 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 262.2 m | 267.4 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 170.1 m | 170.2 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 63.3 m | 61.3 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 422.4 m | 243.5 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 89.6 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 89.8 m | 179.8 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 522.2 m | 421.6 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 856.0 m | 863.1 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 282.1 m | 276.9 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 40 | 40 | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 148.6 m | 111.2 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 66.4 m | 57.8 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 82.2 m ≈ | 53.4 m ≈ | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -77.3 m | -55.9 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -73.9 m | -76.2 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 65 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 474 EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet17
- Valuation100
- Quality65
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4,858,058.57 – 489,830,778.54 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)47,193,925.67 – 489,830,778.54 (Mid 106,283,049.79)WACC 3.3% · starting FCFF 67.2 m EUR · terminal value share of EV 94%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA21,441,493.97 – 22,635,546.53 (Mid 21,741,282.41)6 companies used · median multiple 6.1x · quartiles 6.1x – 6.3xANORA.HE, ETTE.HE, HARVIA.HE, HONBS.HE, ICP1V.HE, KAMUX.HE
- Peers: P/E4,858,058.57 – 10,914,589.38 (Mid 6,547,361.11)23 companies used · median multiple 11.1x · quartiles 8.2x – 18.5xALMA.HE, APETIT.HE, ASPO.HE, ATRAV.HE, BIOBV.HE, CAPMAN.HE, CONSTI.HE, DIGIA.HE, ELEAV.HE, ELISA.HE, ENENTO.HE, ETTE.HE, FORTUM.HE, FSECURE.HE, GLA1V.HE, GRK.HE, HARVIA.HE, ICP1V.HE, ILKKA.HE, INVEST.HE, KALMAR.HE, KAMUX.HE, KCR.HE
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 65/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.4% | 56 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.6% | 44 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 227.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 25 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 15 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 0.0x | 100 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 1.3x | 100 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 11,256,323.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet17/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality65/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Posti Group Oyj (POSTI.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.4 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -4.9%; net margin 1.6%; ROE 8.4%; net debt/EBITDA 1.3x.
The estimated value range is 21,441,493.97–22,635,546.53 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 21,741,282.41 EUR, the price of 11.86 EUR leaves a potential of 183,315,940.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 100.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 65/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 227.2%
- P/E (TTM): 0.0x
- EV/EBITDA: 1.3x
- FCF yield: 11,256,323.8%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net debt / EBITDA: 1.3x
- Interest coverage: 2.5x
- Current ratio: 0.7x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
| GLA1V.HEGlaston Oyj Abp | 42.1 m | 35.4 | 1.8% | 0.6% | −4.2% | −12% / −32% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for POSTI.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 6.32 Total return -47% · Per year -47% | 11.24 Total return -5% · Per year -5% | 17.00 Total return 43% · Per year 43% |
| 3 years | 5.04 Total return -58% · Per year -25% | 10.17 Total return -14% · Per year -5% | 17.05 Total return 44% · Per year 13% |
| 5 years | 4.01 Total return -66% · Per year -19% | 9.21 Total return -22% · Per year -5% | 17.10 Total return 44% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 2.54
- Net margin± 1.78
- Annual revenue growth± 1.61
- Annual dilution± 0.15
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Posti Group Oyj is the postal and logistics operator in Finland, also active in Sweden and the Baltic states, facing a transformation driven by declining paper mail and growing e-commerce. The company listed in Helsinki in October 2025 and guides for 2026 revenue of 1,400–1,500 million euros, according to 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company operates an extensive distribution network in Finland and holds a long-established position in letters and postal services.
- Presence in three markets, Finland, Sweden and the Baltic states, offers potential network synergies.
- The Helsinki stock exchange listing and recent investment in digitalisation and automation support financial flexibility.
Weaknesses
- Revenue from traditional mail is declining, and the adjusted operating margin remains modest relative to turnover.
- Reliance on services with volumes sensitive to the economic cycle and seasonality can amplify swings in results.
- Personnel and restructuring costs, including the job reductions announced in 2026, add cost pressure.
Opportunities
- Growth in online retail and second-hand resale could support parcel volumes.
- Digital postal services and sorting automation could reduce costs and create new revenue.
- Network consolidation with partners and transferring some outlets to partner networks could improve efficiency.
Threats
- Continuing decline of paper mail, accelerated by digitalisation legislation, could cut revenue quickly.
- Intense parcel competition and the competition authority investigation could bring price pressure and sanctions.
- Geopolitical tensions and transport disruption, including in the Baltic Sea, may affect routes and costs.
Risks
- Decline in letter volumeshigh
Continuing decline in physical mail could significantly affect postal service revenue, and the company cannot guarantee it will maintain profitability as volumes fall.
- Competition authority investigationhigh
The Finnish competition authority is investigating a possible abuse of dominance in the commercial mail market. If an infringement is established, the penalty under law could be substantial relative to turnover.
- Data protection litigationmedium
The November 2025 annulment of the fine is not final, as the authority has appealed. The final outcome remains uncertain.
- Restructuring and labour relationsmedium
The reorganisation announced for 2026 involves job reductions and could lead to disputes with unions, particularly in Finland, affecting costs and internal climate.
- Uncertainty on subsidies and VATlow
The company awaits clarification on compensation for newspaper distribution and its VAT treatment. Differences could create unexpected costs.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If e-commerce growth holds, the parcel segment could offset the decline in letters, and 2026 guidance could be met with effective execution.
- Reorganisation and automation could improve margins, while digital services could create new revenue as customers move online.
- The established position in Finland and regional presence may offer network synergies and stability relative to smaller competitors.
What would break the thesis
- If letter volumes fall faster than expected, revenue and adjusted operating profit could remain below guidance.
- Intense parcel competition and a possible competition authority sanction could squeeze margins and reputation.
- Economic and geopolitical uncertainty could weaken demand and raise transport and personnel costs.
What to watch
- Delivery against guidance for revenue and adjusted operating profit2026
- Outcome of the competition authority investigation into commercial mail2026
- Effects of the reorganisation on costs and headcount2026
- Development of parcel volumes and competition in Finland and the BalticsQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Posti Group Oyj delivers letters, parcels and digital postal services to customers in Finland, Sweden and the Baltics. In fiscal 2025 revenue was 1,447.6 million euros and adjusted EBIT 69.3 million euros, according to 1. The company describes its strategy as a combination of commercial growth, network synergies and operational efficiency.
Segments
Postal and letter services
This activity faces a steady decline in paper letter volumes, which the company tries to offset with digital postal solutions and more efficient distribution models. From 2026 legislation requires much of official state correspondence to be delivered digitally, adding pressure 1.
Parcels and logistics
The parcel segment benefits from growth in online retail and the rising popularity of second-hand resale, but competes intensely in Finland and the Baltics. The company also notes overlapping warehouse capacity in Finland and Sweden 1.
Digital services and e-commerce
The company is expanding digital offerings to support customers moving to online services. Management sees this direction as a lever for commercial growth and for synergies with the physical network 1.
Market context
The company describes the logistics market in the region as challenging in 2026, with limited growth in trade and industry due to uncertainty and weak consumer confidence. Parcel market growth is supported by online retail, but competition remains high. Traditional mail volumes keep falling with digitalisation 1.
Economic developments in Finland, Sweden and the Baltic states directly influence the company, since its customer base is broad. Finnish GDP growth forecasts for 2026 are described as moderate, while growth is expected to continue in Sweden and the Baltics 1.
Trends
- Decline of paper mailheadwind
Physical letter volumes decline steadily, and the company is adapting its network and distribution model. If the decline accelerates, pressure on postal service revenue could increase.
- Growth of e-commercetailwind
Online retail, including second-hand resale and smaller parcels, supports delivery demand. It could sustain parcel volumes if the pace holds.
- Digitalisation and regulationmixed
Legislation requiring digital delivery of official correspondence reduces physical volumes but opens opportunities for digital postal services.
- Economic and geopolitical uncertaintyheadwind
Trade tensions, conflicts in Europe and financial uncertainty may weaken consumer confidence and transport costs, affecting demand and supply chains.
Competitive position
The company faces intense competition in parcels in Finland and the Baltics, where rival networks are expanding. In letters, competition has grown since market opening, and the Finnish competition authority is investigating, at rivals' initiative, a possible abuse of dominance in the commercial mail market 1.
In warehousing there is a risk of overlapping capacity in Finland and Sweden, which could push prices down. Investment in automation is needed to remain competitive 1.
- DHL Group
Global logistics operator with parcel and mail presence, active in the Nordic and Baltic markets.
- DSV
International logistics and freight company, competing in warehousing and distribution.
- PostNord
Postal operator in Sweden and Denmark, a direct rival in mail and parcels in the Nordic region.
- UPSUPS
Global parcel delivery company present in the European commercial parcel market.
News & filings
In the press
- Aleksandër Vuçiq jep dorëheqje nga posti i presidentit të SerbisëSurge — GDELT DOC · 27 Sept 2026 · RO
- Fundi i epokës Vuçiq në presidencën e Serbisë : Jep dorëheqjen nga postiSurge — GDELT DOC · 27 Sept 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202518 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202518 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Posti Group Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.