olivLaw · European equity research
Sampo Oyj SAMPO.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
Sampo Oyj is a Nordic financial group whose core is non-life insurance through If, supported by investments. For 2026 the group projects insurance revenue growth between 5% and 8%, and proposes a dividend of 0.36 euro per share for 2025.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Sampo Oyj (SAMPO.HE) stock was 9.95 EUR (+1.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 26.9 bn EUR, P/E 13.4 on diluted EPS of 0.74 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.62%, beta 0.29, 52-week range 8.69–10.33 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 81.5
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 8.67 – 9.86
- above the upper band · %B 1.08 · band width 12.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 9.25 / 9.27
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.17 / 0.08
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.3% | −0.6% | +13.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +3.9% | −4.2% | +8.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +11.5% | +4.3% | +7.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −3.7% | +7.5% | −11.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +1.7% | +9.9% | −8.2 pp | −1.9% |
| 3 years | +33.4% | +49.8% | −16.4 pp | +5.4% |
| 5 years | +21.6% | +42.8% | −21.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 3.0, median 14.0, max 17.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −12.8% | +73.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.62 | 0.45 | 0.74 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −82.8% | +64.4% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.3 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 8.1 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 25.7 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 26.4%
- ROA
- 8.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 339.0 m | 330.0 m | 439.0 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.62 | 0.45 | 0.74 | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.60 | 0.34 | 0.36 | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.4 bn | 962.0 m | 1.3 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 24.2 bn | 24.5 bn | 25.7 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 16.5 bn | 17.4 bn | 17.6 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 7.7 bn | 7.1 bn | 8.1 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 505.0 m | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 970.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | — | 37.0 m | 92.0 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -223.0 m | -125.0 m | -150.0 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.4 bn | -1.7 bn | -1.3 bn | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 555.0 m | 475.0 m | 290.0 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 26.9 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
31% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.90 – 13.62 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E6.16 – 13.62 (Mid 8.41)24 companies used · median multiple 11.4x · quartiles 8.3x – 18.4xALMA.HE, APETIT.HE, ASPO.HE, ATRAV.HE, BIOBV.HE, CAPMAN.HE, CONSTI.HE, DIGIA.HE, ELEAV.HE, ELISA.HE, ENENTO.HE, ETTE.HE, FORTUM.HE, FSECURE.HE, GLA1V.HE, GRK.HE, HARVIA.HE, ICP1V.HE, ILKKA.HE, INVEST.HE, KALMAR.HE, KAMUX.HE, KCR.HE, KEMIRA.HE
- Dividend discount (DDM)4.90 – 6.68 (Mid 5.65)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 83.4% | 76 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.4x | 55 (vs peers) | 33% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.2% | 78 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.1% | 15 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial76/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial15/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation65/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Sampo Oyj (SAMPO.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 26.4%.
The estimated value range is 5.53–10.15 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.03 EUR, the price of 9.95 EUR leaves a potential of -29.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -41.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 83.4%
- FCF yield: 6.2%
What contradicts it
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KEMIRA.HEKemira Oyj | 2.5 bn | 13.6 | 10.5% | 6.6% | −6.6% | −17% / +4% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SAMPO.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Sampo Oyj is a Nordic financial group whose core is non-life insurance through If, supported by investments. For 2026 the group projects insurance revenue growth between 5% and 8%, and proposes a dividend of 0.36 euro per share for 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a solid capital position, with a high Solvency II ratio and a clear dividend policy linked to the operating result 1.
- The integration of Topdanmark into If created a unified pan-Nordic organisation that could support operational efficiency 1.
- The governance and risk management framework is described in detail, with dedicated committees and quarterly reporting to the board 1.
Weaknesses
- A material part of earnings comes from investments, so net profit is more sensitive to financial markets than the underwriting result 1.
- The underwriting result depends on estimates that can vary, especially for weather and large claims 1.
- The two share class structure, where B shares carry five votes, concentrates voting power with one shareholder independent of the company 1.
Opportunities
- The projected 2026 revenue growth could come from expanding pan-Nordic operations after the Topdanmark integration 1.
- Returning excess capital through share buybacks could support shareholder value 1.
- Digitalisation and artificial intelligence could bring efficiencies in underwriting and customer service 1.
Risks
- Market and credit riskhigh
Market and credit risks directly affect investment portfolio returns and could weigh on profitability, especially in periods of volatility 1.
- Underwriting riskhigh
Large claims, weather events and changes in prior year estimates could weaken the underwriting result, and the forecast needs periodic updates 1.
- Operational and cyber riskmedium
Cyber threats and operational risks are identified as sources of uncertainty that could affect continuity of operations 1.
- Macroeconomic uncertaintymedium
Slower growth, persistent inflation and an uncertain interest rate path could affect both investments and insurance liabilities 1.
- Competitive pressure in the UKlow
Competitive conditions in UK motor insurance can change rapidly, which could affect projected revenue 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the If and Topdanmark integration proceeds as planned, the group could reach its projected revenue growth and a stronger underwriting result 1.
- A high capital position and a policy of returning excess capital could provide room for dividends and buybacks 1.
- If the combined ratio stays below the target level, the group could meet its 2024-2026 financial targets 1.
What would break the thesis
- If weather or large claims exceed estimates, the underwriting result could fall short of the projection 1.
- Part of profit depends on investments, so market volatility could have a larger impact than underwriting activity 1.
- If competitive pressure in the UK intensifies, the projected revenue could be harder to reach 1.
What to watch
- Delivery of the projected insurance revenue growth2026
- Development of the underwriting result and combined ratioQ1 2027
- Approval of the proposed dividend of 0.36 euro per share2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Sampo plc, the parent of the Sampo group, is governed by its board of directors and committee structure, while operations run mainly through the group's insurance and investment companies 1. The merger of If and Topdanmark was completed on 1 July 2025, after Sampo obtained about 92.6% of Topdanmark's shares through the 2024 exchange offer 1. The group reported an operating result of 1,343 million euro for 2025 and proposes a dividend of 0.36 euro per share 1. Its dividend policy targets a stable dividend that grows with the operating result, with excess capital returned through buybacks or extra dividends 1.
Segments
If (pan-Nordic non-life insurance)
Non-life insurance is the largest part of the group and expanded after the Topdanmark integration, when its P&C operations were combined with If in a pan-Nordic organisation completed on 1 July 2025 1. Insurance revenue is the main growth indicator for 2026 1.
Investments and financial result
Returns on the investment portfolio and insurance finance income and expense contribute materially to group earnings, and the company does not provide an outlook for its net financial result 1.
Trends
- Claims costs and weather eventsheadwind
The underwriting result forecast depends on estimates for weather claims, large claims and prior year development, which vary and lie outside the group's control, making regular forecast updates necessary 1.
- Interest rates and financial marketsmixed
The path of interest rates and the risk of abrupt asset repricing can influence investment returns and insurance liabilities, with effects on profitability 1.
- Digitalisation and artificial intelligencemixed
Digital technologies and artificial intelligence are changing how the business operates, but they also raise threats from cybercrime, identified as long-term trends 1.
- Economic slowdown and inflation in Europeheadwind
Trade tensions and geopolitical events could slow European economic growth and weaken the debt service capacity of businesses and households, which could reduce demand and raise claims risk 1.
Competitive position
The group faces competition in non-life insurance across the Nordic countries and the United Kingdom, where conditions may change rapidly, particularly in motor insurance 1. The supplied sources do not explicitly name competitors, so the list below is limited to what the report mentions.
- Nordic and UK insurers in general
The source does not name competitors; competition in UK motor insurance is mentioned as a risk factor 1.
- Other Nordic non-life insurers
The report refers to general sector competition without identifying specific firms 1.
- Investment managers active in the Nordic market
The group's investment activity operates in a competitive environment, without names in the source 1.
- UK motor insurance providers
Competition in the British motor segment could quickly change projected revenue 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202518 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202418 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Sampo Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.