olivLaw · European equity research
Stora Enso Oyj STERV.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
Stora Enso is a Finnish-Swedish group producing renewable materials and packaging, with a 2026 focus on consumer and integrated packaging. For fiscal 2025 it proposes a dividend of 0.25 euro per share, and management expects market pressures to persist while the new Oulu line and emission allowance changes could shape 2026 profit.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Stora Enso Oyj (STERV.HE) stock was 9.75 EUR (−0.23% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.7 bn EUR, P/E 11.1 on diluted EPS of 0.88 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.56%, beta 0.89, 52-week range 9.10–12.02 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.4
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 9.41 – 10.19
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.43 · band width 8.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 10.07 / 10.04
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.12 / -0.12
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.1% | +0.4% | −2.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.1% | −3.3% | +3.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +0.3% | +4.0% | −3.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −8.9% | +8.1% | −17.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −3.2% | +10.7% | −13.9 pp | −1.2% |
| 3 years | −18.6% | +50.1% | −68.7 pp | +6.8% |
| 5 years | −32.6% | +43.6% | −76.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 12.2, median 12.2, max 12.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.4 bn | 9.0 bn | 9.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −3.7% | +3.1% |
| Net income | -357.0 m | -136.0 m | 695.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.45 | -0.17 | 0.88 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -3.8% | -1.5% | 7.5% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.2 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- 253.0 m EUR
- Net debt
- -959.0 m EUR
- Equity
- 10.6 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 19.1 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.02x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 6.7%
- ROA
- 3.6%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.4 bn | 9.0 bn | 9.3 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -322.0 m | 93.0 m | 942.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 264.0 m | 329.0 m | 263.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -495.0 m | -118.0 m | 783.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -64.0 m | 65.0 m | 97.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -357.0 m | -136.0 m | 695.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.45 | -0.17 | 0.88 | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.25 | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.2 bn | 969.0 m | 869.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 505.0 m | 162.0 m | 171.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 304.0 m | 277.0 m | 250.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 20.8 bn | 19.8 bn | 19.1 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 347.0 m | 1.1 bn | 253.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 9.9 bn | 9.8 bn | 8.4 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 10.9 bn | 10.0 bn | 10.6 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 793.3 m | 800.0 m | 789.8 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 752.0 m | 952.0 m | 645.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -1.3 bn | -1.1 bn | 60.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.1 bn | -301.0 m | -1.5 bn | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 472.0 m | 146.0 m | 209.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 6.0 m | 3.0 m | 2.0 m | esef· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 7.7 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
40% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.40 – 16.28 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E7.25 – 16.28 (Mid 9.77)23 companies used · median multiple 11.1x · quartiles 8.2x – 18.5xALMA.HE, APETIT.HE, ASPO.HE, ATRAV.HE, BIOBV.HE, CAPMAN.HE, CONSTI.HE, DIGIA.HE, ELEAV.HE, ELISA.HE, ENENTO.HE, ETTE.HE, FORTUM.HE, FSECURE.HE, GLA1V.HE, GRK.HE, HARVIA.HE, ICP1V.HE, ILKKA.HE, INVEST.HE, KALMAR.HE, KAMUX.HE, KCR.HE
- Dividend discount (DDM)3.40 – 4.64 (Mid 3.92)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.8% | 56 (vs peers) | 26% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.5% | 64 (vs peers) | 16% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.6x | 32 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.1x | 61 (vs peers) | 26% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.7% | 39 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial32/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality59/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial39/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial61/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Stora Enso Oyj (STERV.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 9.3 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 3.1%; net margin 7.5%; ROE 6.6%.
The estimated value range is 5.32–10.46 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 6.84 EUR, the price of 9.75 EUR leaves a potential of -29.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -42.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| STERV.HEStora Enso Oyj | 7.7 bn | 11.1 | 6.6% | 7.5% | +3.1% | −4% / −18% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for STERV.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 5.68 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 10.05 Total return 6% · Per year 6% | 15.15 Total return 59% · Per year 59% |
| 3 years | 5.35 Total return -39% · Per year -15% | 10.67 Total return 18% · Per year 6% | 17.69 Total return 92% · Per year 24% |
| 5 years | 5.05 Total return -39% · Per year -9% | 11.34 Total return 30% · Per year 5% | 20.65 Total return 131% · Per year 18% |
- Exit P/E± 2.67
- Net margin± 1.87
- Annual revenue growth± 1.55
- Annual dilution± 0.16
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Stora Enso is a Finnish-Swedish group producing renewable materials and packaging, with a 2026 focus on consumer and integrated packaging. For fiscal 2025 it proposes a dividend of 0.25 euro per share, and management expects market pressures to persist while the new Oulu line and emission allowance changes could shape 2026 profit 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Established position in packaging from renewable materials, with a new reporting structure that clarifies resource allocation.
- Stable shareholder base, with significant holdings by the Finnish state and a Swedish investor.
- Own forest resources and the ability to integrate the value chain from wood to packaging.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on wood and pulp prices, where variations can have large effects on profit.
- The new Oulu line still weighs on results while technical optimisation continues.
- Falling emission allowance income reduces one source of operating profit.
Opportunities
- Rising demand for sustainable packaging could support volumes if the market recovers.
- Separation of the Swedish forest business, planned for 2027, could change the structure of the company.
- Cost reduction from completing the Oulu line optimisation could improve margins.
Threats
- Geopolitical uncertainty and trade tariffs can affect demand, costs and supply chains.
- New capacity entering the market could press prices down.
- Regulatory requirements or clawbacks of investment grants in several countries could carry costs.
Risks
- Wood price volatilityhigh
Tensions in the wood market, especially in Northern Europe, could raise costs or reduce deliveries to mills, affecting production.
- Pulp price exposurehigh
According to the sensitivity analysis, a fall in pulp prices could materially reduce adjusted operating profit over the following twelve months.
- Oulu line risksmedium
Delays in optimising the new production line could extend the negative impact on adjusted operating profit.
- EU ETS changesmedium
Loss of free emission allowances at several sites reduces operating income and could make profitability targets harder to reach.
- Geopolitical and trade riskmedium
Tariffs, sanctions and conflicts can affect demand, costs and logistics, with effects on cash flows.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for renewable packaging recovers, the Integrated Packaging and Consumer Packaging segments could support revenue and margin growth.
- Completing the optimisation of the Oulu line could reduce the drag on profit and improve operating results.
- The stable shareholder base and earnings-based dividend policy could offer predictability to investors, if profit holds up.
What would break the thesis
- If demand for packaging and pulp stays weak, growth and margin targets could be difficult to reach.
- Falling emission allowance income and asset sales could reduce operating profit in 2026.
- High sensitivity to wood and pulp prices could amplify losses if prices decline.
What to watch
- First-quarter results and the impact of the Oulu line on adjusted operating profitQ1 2026
- Approval of the 0.25 euro per share dividend at the annual general meeting2026
- Evolution of emission allowance income after EU ETS changes2026
- Preparation for the separation of the Swedish forest business2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Stora Enso Oyj operates in renewable materials, packaging and biomaterials, drawing on its forest resources and industrial production. According to the annual report for the year ended 31 December 2025, the company adopted from 1 January 2026 a new reporting structure with four segments: Consumer Packaging, Integrated Packaging, Biomaterials and Other 1. The stated aim is a focus on packaging, with an adjusted operating margin above 10%, revenue growth above 4% and net debt to adjusted EBITDA below 1 1.
Recent events include the sale of 175,000 hectares of Swedish forest completed in 2025 and preparation for the separation of the Swedish forest business planned for 2027 1. The executive team was partly renewed, including the appointment of a new head of the Containerboard division from 1 January 2026 1.
Segments
Consumer Packaging
The segment includes the Cartonboard and Foodservice and Liquid Board business areas, focused on board packaging for consumer products and food service, from reporting in 2026 1.
Integrated Packaging
The segment combines Containerboard and Packaging Solutions. On Containerboard, a new production line at Oulu is still being optimised, and the negative impact on adjusted operating profit in the first quarter of 2026 is estimated at 15–30 million euro 1.
Biomaterials
The Biomaterials segment, linked to pulp and wood products, is sensitive to wood and pulp prices, where a 10% change could materially move adjusted operating profit 1.
Market context
Management describes markets as challenging, with weak consumer confidence and geopolitical uncertainty, and expects demand for packaging and pulp to remain stable at a low level 1. Wood prices in Scandinavia and the role of emission allowances under the EU ETS complete the picture of the market the company operates in 1.
Emission allowance income reached about 72 million euro in 2025 and is expected to fall to 10–20 million euro in 2026, as EU ETS rule changes remove free allowances at several sites 1. If demand recovers, the margin effect could differ from the base case the company presents 1.
Trends
- Shift to renewable packagingtailwind
The focus on packaging from renewable materials and the new reporting structure could support growth in packaging segments if demand improves 1.
- Weak demand and low consumer confidenceheadwind
Management expects markets to stay difficult and demand for packaging and pulp to remain low, which limits revenue growth 1.
- EU ETS changesmixed
Removal of some sites from the scheme reduces allowance sales income, but reflects lower fossil emissions, which may have mixed long-term effects 1.
- Volatile raw material pricesheadwind
Wood, chemical and energy prices are volatile in Europe, and tight wood markets in the Nordics could raise costs or disrupt deliveries 1.
Competitive position
The analysed source does not explicitly name the company's competitors. The company does, however, operate in board packaging, containerboard and pulp markets, where competition comes from European and international producers not named in this report 1.
Competitive position is shaped by wood and energy costs, new capacity entering the market and pulp prices, which the report describes as drivers of demand and margins 1.
- European board packaging producers
Competition in the Consumer Packaging segment, not individually named in the source.
- Containerboard producers
Competition in the Integrated Packaging segment, not individually named in the source.
- Pulp producers
Competition in Biomaterials, where pulp prices influence profit.
- New packaging capacity entrants
New capacity could distort demand and prices, according to the report.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202517 Feb 2026
- Annual report 202425 Feb 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Stora Enso Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.