olivLaw · European equity research
Tokmanni Group Oyj TOKMAN.HE
Finland · Nasdaq Helsinki · Vertical: Listed companies from Finland
Tokmanni Group Oyj is a Finnish discount retail chain with a broad range of products, operating in several Nordic and Baltic countries. In its latest financial year revenue was roughly flat and profit margin narrowed, so the 2026 guidance is central to discussions about the company.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN.HE) stock was 6.14 EUR (−12.29% on the day), with beta 0.59, 52-week range 6.14–8.83 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 32.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.38 – 7.30
- below the lower band · %B -0.26 · band width 13.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.98 / 7.24
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.11 / -0.06
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.4% | −0.6% | −7.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.0% | −4.2% | −10.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −20.8% | +4.3% | −25.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −20.6% | +7.5% | −28.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −26.9% | +9.9% | −36.8 pp | −1.2% |
| 3 years | −53.0% | +49.8% | −102.8 pp | +6.8% |
| 5 years | −68.8% | +42.8% | −111.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +20.3% | +3.2% |
| Net income | 54.0 m | 48.4 m | 36.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −10.4% | −25.0% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Free cash flow | 166.2 m | 49.7 m | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 69.4 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 286.0 m EUR
- Total assets
- 1.5 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.39x
- ROE
- 13.2%
- ROA
- 2.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 93.0 m | 99.6 m | 83.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 96.8 m | 127.6 m | 133.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 189.9 m ≈ | 227.2 m ≈ | 217.1 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 27.3 m | 45.4 m | 43.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 68.4 m | 60.7 m | 45.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | -14.4 m | 12.3 m | 9.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 54.0 m | 48.4 m | 36.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 133.7 m | 15.9 m | 69.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 29.1 m | 38.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 342.9 m | 428.4 m | 424.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 510.2 m | 475.9 m | 534.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 633.4 m | 638.6 m | 696.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 218.1 m | 217.3 m | 220.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 45.8 m | 42.4 m | 42.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 259.9 m | 266.6 m | 240.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 401.6 m | 396.6 m | 384.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 265.4 m | 263.1 m | 286.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 220.2 m | 89.1 m | 139.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 54.0 m | 39.4 m | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 166.2 m ≈ | 49.7 m ≈ | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -167.0 m | -38.3 m | -8.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 70.7 m | -168.2 m | -78.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 44.7 m | 44.7 m | 20.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 3.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.1% | 46 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 275.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 6 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 49 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 20.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet23/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality73/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN.HE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.7 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 3.2%; net margin 2.1%; ROE 13.2%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 275.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 20.0%
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 1.9x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Finland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORTUM.HEFortum Oyj | 20.8 bn | 27.2 | 8.7% | 15.3% | −14.0% | +32% / +81% |
| ELISA.HEElisa Oyj | 5.6 bn | 16.3 | 27.0% | 15.2% | +3.0% | −8% / −15% |
| KALMAR.HEKalmar Oyj | 2.4 bn | 14.7 | 24.1% | 9.4% | +1.2% | +0% / unavailable |
| KCR.HEKonecranes Oyj | 2.2 bn | 5.6 | 20.3% | 9.5% | −0.9% | −4% / +134% |
| EXEL.HEExel Composites Oyj | 1.8 bn | — | -18.5% | -5.3% | +3.6% | +163% / +74% |
| BITTI.HEBittium Oyj | 1.2 bn | 55.8 | 17.5% | 17.9% | +40.1% | +73% / +603% |
| ALMA.HEAlma Media Oyj | 1.2 bn | 21.2 | 23.0% | 16.9% | +4.6% | +9% / +57% |
| FIA1S.HEFinnair Oyj | 927.4 m | 50.4 | 2.9% | 0.6% | +1.9% | +54% / +22% |
| GRK.HEGRK Infra Oyj | 788.5 m | 18.3 | 27.8% | 4.9% | +19.7% | +52% / unavailable |
| HARVIA.HEHarvia Oyj | 768.7 m | 29.3 | 21.0% | 13.3% | +13.5% | −1% / +64% |
| ATRAV.HEAtria Oyj | 451.7 m | 11.1 | 9.8% | 2.2% | +3.3% | +13% / +57% |
| ANORA.HEAnora Group Oyj | 317.6 m | 57.8 | 1.4% | 0.8% | −4.9% | +26% / +11% |
| CAPMAN.HECapMan Oyj | 300.2 m | 23.1 | 6.8% | 20.9% | +9.4% | −8% / −20% |
| ICP1V.HEIncap Oyj | 261.0 m | 18.7 | 10.4% | 6.5% | −6.7% | −3% / +37% |
| FSECURE.HEF-Secure Oyj | 243.7 m | 10.9 | 43.4% | 15.3% | −0.4% | −17% / −23% |
| ASPO.HEAspo Oyj | 219.4 m | 9.3 | 15.4% | 5.0% | +2.1% | +2% / +9% |
| ETTE.HEEtteplan Oyj | 173.7 m | 16.4 | 8.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | −27% / −51% |
| DIGIA.HEDigia Oyj | 131.6 m | 10.5 | 14.5% | 5.9% | +5.5% | −16% / −12% |
| ILKKA.HEIlkka Oyj | 93.8 m | 8.1 | 6.2% | 30.8% | +22.6% | +0% / +21% |
| CONSTI.HEConsti Oyj | 77.4 m | 11.6 | 15.3% | 2.0% | +2.9% | −8% / −6% |
| APETIT.HEApetit Oyj | 75.6 m | 8.4 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +3.1% | −14% / −3% |
| ESENSE.HEEnersense International Oyj | 74.9 m | 74.7 | 3.1% | 0.4% | −27.7% | +12% / +9% |
| CTH1V.HEComponenta Oyj | 66.1 m | 324.0 | 0.8% | 0.2% | −4.6% | +49% / +182% |
| KAMUX.HEKamux Oyj | 47.4 m | 10.3 | 4.2% | 0.5% | +0.8% | −40% / −77% |
| GLA1V.HEGlaston Oyj Abp | 42.1 m | 35.4 | 1.8% | 0.6% | −4.2% | −12% / −32% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TOKMAN.HE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Tokmanni Group Oyj is a Finnish discount retail chain with a broad range of products, operating in several Nordic and Baltic countries. In its latest financial year revenue was roughly flat and profit margin narrowed, so the 2026 guidance is central to discussions about the company 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has an extensive store network, a low-price image and a customer count that grew in fiscal 2025 1.
- The sourcing structure through the joint venture with Europris gives access to large volumes of products from Asia 1.
- Management has set clear indicators for comparable performance, which makes results easier to assess 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on Asian sourcinghigh
An interruption of cooperation with the sourcing partner could generate extra costs and higher purchase prices 1.
- High indebtednesshigh
The level of net debt relative to comparable EBITDA could limit investment capacity and repayment if profitability falls 1.
- Danish court casemedium
The authority decision in Brønderslev could influence how variety stores are treated across the country 1.
- Acquisition integrationmedium
Difficulties integrating systems and staff could delay strategic goals and slow growth 1.
- Cybersecuritymedium
A disruption of IT systems or a cyberattack could halt sales and payments across the network 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The 2026 guidance points to a recovery in comparable operating profit, which could support a new growth cycle if demand stabilises 1.
- The customer count grew in 2025, a sign the format remains attractive even in a difficult economic environment 1.
- Recent acquisitions and optimised sourcing could generate synergies that improve margins over time 1.
What would break the thesis
- Comparable sales declined slightly and margins narrowed, which could signal structural pressure on profitability 1.
- High net debt could limit flexibility and leave the company vulnerable to a slowdown in profit 1.
- Dependence on one major sourcing partner and geopolitical risks could raise costs and disrupt deliveries 1.
What to watch
- Delivery of the 2026 guidance for revenue and comparable operating profit2026
- Development of comparable sales and customer count in quarterly reportsQ1 2026
- Outcome of the court case on the Big Dollar store in Denmark2026
- Board decision on the second dividend instalment and the level of net debtautumn 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the annual report for the year ended 31 December 2025, the group generated revenue of 1,728.325 million euros, while gross margin was 35.1% and EBITDA reached 217.058 million euros 1. The group defines comparable indicators that exclude one-off items, such as fair value changes in currency derivatives, to show operating performance more clearly 1. The customer count rose slightly by 1.8%, suggesting store traffic held up even though comparable sales declined slightly 1.
The group relies heavily on a sourcing network in East Asia, and an essential part of its goods comes through a joint venture with Europris, which acts as the main purchasing channel for Far Eastern goods 1. The company also manages recent acquisitions, which involves integrating systems, processes and staff 1. Net debt remains high relative to comparable EBITDA, so operating performance matters a great deal for funding capacity 1.
For fiscal 2026 management estimates revenue between 1,780 and 1,860 million euros and comparable operating profit between 85 and 105 million euros 1. The board proposes a dividend of up to 0.34 euros per share for 2025, payable in two instalments, and shareholders will also vote on the board composition, which could grow to seven members 1.
Segments
Discount retail
The core activity is discount stores with a varied range of household goods, gift items, food and maintenance products, which generate most of the group's revenue 1. The rise in customer numbers shows the format attracts shoppers, but pressure on comparable sales indicates demand remains sensitive to economic conditions 1.
Big Dollar format in Denmark
A separate format, Big Dollar, operates in Denmark, and a decision by local authorities at the end of 2025 challenges how a store in Brønderslev is classified 1. The company has taken the decision to court, arguing it could affect the whole retail sector in the country, not just one store 1.
Market context
The group operates in discount retail across the Nordic and Baltic countries, where demand depends on household purchasing power and prices of basic goods 1. The report notes that macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical developments could slow economic growth and affect demand for the products sold 1.
Suppliers are concentrated in Asia, and transport costs, purchase prices and political stability in producing countries influence margins and product availability 1. Over the longer term, consumer interest in more responsible products and supply chain transparency are becoming increasingly important purchasing factors 1.
Trends
- Pressure on consumer demandheadwind
Economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainty could reduce demand for the goods the group sells, putting pressure on comparable sales 1.
- Sourcing costs from Asiaheadwind
Political instability and regulatory changes in supplier countries such as China, Turkey or Bangladesh could raise purchase prices or cause delays 1.
- Price sensitivity of shoppersmixed
Keeping a low-price image is central to the business model, and guidance for stronger consumption could support volumes if customers remain drawn to discount 1.
- Sustainability concernsmixed
Greater awareness of environmental impact can change buying habits, which could favour companies offering more responsible ranges but could also pressure supply chains 1.
Competitive position
The group competes with other discount retailers and with food and household goods chains in the regions where it operates, and differentiation rests on prices, range and access to its store network 1. The report does not give a full list of competitors, so the exact market position is hard to judge from this source alone 1.
Competitive pressure could increase if large retailers expand discount formats or improve their supply chains, which could limit the group's ability to keep margins stable 1.
- Europris
Joint venture partner providing sourcing from the Far East, and also a competitor in the regional discount market 1.
- Household goods retailers in Northern Europe
Chains selling similar products at competitive prices that can contest the same shoppers in stores and online 1.
- Local food proximity retailers
Stores competing for everyday consumer goods, where Tokmanni has seen a slight rise in customer numbers 1.
- International discount chains
Operators using the same low-price model that could enter or expand in Nordic markets 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Tokmanni Group Oyj · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.