olivLaw · European equity research
Trakcja Spółka Akcyjna TRK.WA
Poland · GPW Warszawa · ISIN PLTRKPL00014 · Vertical: Listed companies from Poland
Trakcja is a Polish joint-stock company active in building and modernising railway infrastructure, with most of its shares held by PKP PLK. It returned to profit in 2023 after a large loss in 2022, but remains dependent on extending its financing and settling mediations with its main client, with an order backlog of 1 905 mln zł at year end.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Trakcja Spółka Akcyjna (TRK.WA) stock was 3.06 PLN (−2.86% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.0 m PLN, P/E 0.0 on diluted EPS of 160.00 PLN over the last 12 months, dividend yield 14.09%, beta 0.67, 52-week range 2.91–5.00 PLN.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 32.4
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.06 – 3.42
- below the lower band · %B -0.00 · band width 11.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.50 / 3.86
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.10 / -0.09
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −13.3% | −0.6% | −12.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −13.7% | −4.2% | −9.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −25.3% | +4.3% | −29.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −13.2% | +7.5% | −20.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −5.4% | +9.9% | −15.3 pp | +7.1% |
| 3 years | +112.2% | +49.8% | +62.3 pp | +3.3% |
| 5 years | +38.9% | +42.8% | −4.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 0.0, median 0.0, max 0.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +5.4% | +37.5% |
| Net income | -11.4 m | -306.4 m | 55.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -100.00 | 1,620.00 | 160.00 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −90.1% |
| net % | -0.8% | -20.4% | 2.7% |
| Free cash flow | -44.5 m | -127.5 m | 461.6 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 379.0 m PLN
- Financial debt
- unavailable PLN
- Net debt
- unavailable PLN
- Equity
- 248.2 m PLN
- Total assets
- 1.5 bn PLN
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.88x
- ROE
- 24.3%
- ROA
- 3.9%
- FCF margin
- 22.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (PLN)
Margins
Income statement · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Gross profit | 57.6 m | -142.9 m | 150.3 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Operating income | 22.2 m | -289.1 m | 95.7 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Interest expense | 27.9 m | 42.3 m | 41.1 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | -1.6 m | -326.4 m | 56.9 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Income tax | 10.0 m | -15.4 m | 671.0 k | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Net income | -11.4 m | -306.4 m | 55.7 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | -100.00 | 1,620.00 | 160.00 | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Dividend per share | 6.80 | — | 0.43 | esef· 24 Apr 2024derived |
Balance sheet · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 126.9 m | 97.9 m | 379.0 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Receivables | 331.4 m | 406.9 m | 309.4 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Inventories | 107.3 m | 150.5 m | 147.3 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Current assets | 817.8 m | 895.4 m | 1.0 bn | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 265.9 m | 255.5 m | 246.0 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Goodwill | 181.6 m | 113.7 m | 103.2 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 4.0 m | 4.0 m | 4.3 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Total assets | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Accounts payable | 370.1 m | 430.1 m | 474.4 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 702.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Equity | 320.1 m | 210.1 m | 248.2 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 87.9 k | — | 327.7 k | esef· 24 Apr 2024derived |
Cash flow · PLN
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -42.9 m | -125.7 m | 463.1 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Capex | 1.6 m | 1.8 m | 1.5 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Free cash flow | -44.5 m ≈ | -127.5 m ≈ | 461.6 m ≈ | esef· 24 Apr 2024derived |
| Investing cash flow | 40.4 m | 24.3 m | 4.4 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Financing cash flow | -6.4 m | 72.2 m | -186.3 m | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Dividends paid | 597.0 k | 142.0 k | 141.0 k | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.0 m PLN
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.7% | 46 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 828.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.3x | 13 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 7 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 0.0x | 100 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 46,112.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 14.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 0.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet10/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality73/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Trakcja Spółka Akcyjna (TRK.WA). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.1 bn PLN in 2023; YoY growth 37.5%; net margin 2.7%; ROE 24.6%.
The estimated value range is 1,019.56–2,813.79 PLN per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1,770.00 PLN, the price of 3.06 PLN leaves a potential of 57,837.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 99.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 828.7%
- P/E (TTM): 0.0x
- FCF yield: 46,112.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 14.1%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 0.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.3x
- Current ratio: 0.9x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Poland · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDX.WABudimex Spółka Akcyjna | 19.3 bn | 36.1 | 41.5% | 6.2% | +8.9% | +21% / +36% |
| ACP.WAAsseco Poland S.A. | 19.2 bn | 38.1 | 7.8% | 2.9% | +19.8% | +19% / +202% |
| BFT.WABenefit Systems Spółka Akcyjna | 18.1 bn | 131.1 | 20.8% | 7.2% | +99.9% | +74% / +221% |
| ASE.WAAsseco South Eastern Europe Spółka Akcyjna | 3.7 bn | 19.8 | 18.1% | 12.0% | +36.5% | +7% / +52% |
| 1AT.WAAtal Spółka Akcyjna | 2.3 bn | 6.4 | 29.8% | 22.2% | −1.3% | +7% / +8% |
| ATT.WAGrupa Azoty Spółka Akcyjna | 1.7 bn | — | -37.9% | -20.8% | −45.1% | −10% / −22% |
| ARH.WAArchicom Spółka Akcyjna | 1.3 bn | 12.1 | 15.9% | 22.1% | −21.6% | +13% / +89% |
| ACT.WAAction S.A. | 997.4 m | 27.1 | 8.3% | 1.5% | +6.1% | +70% / +170% |
| BRS.WABoryszew Spółka Akcyjna | 889.2 m | 8.3 | 6.3% | 1.6% | +8.4% | −24% / −26% |
| AGO.WAAgora Spółka Akcyjna | 601.9 m | — | -14.2% | -9.2% | +15.2% | +40% / +21% |
| AMB.WAAmbra S.A. | 468.0 m | 7.6 | 16.4% | 7.0% | +12.9% | +5% / −33% |
| ATC.WAArctic Paper Spółka Akcyjna | 357.2 m | 1.4 | 16.3% | 7.0% | −27.5% | −38% / −75% |
| ATG.WA"atm Grupa Spółka Akcyjna" | 299.3 m | 11.1 | 8.9% | 11.6% | −22.0% | −11% / +3% |
| ART.WAArtifex Mundi S.A. | 226.6 m | 17.4 | 35.7% | 33.3% | +51.9% | +46% / +12% |
| APN.WAAPLISENS Spółka Akcyjna | 194.6 m | 9.5 | 11.4% | 13.8% | +21.8% | −1% / −21% |
| BMC.WABumech Spółka Akcyjna | 155.7 m | — | -3.4% | -3.9% | −40.0% | −37% / −49% |
| ALI.WAALTUS Spolka Akcyjna | 153.9 m | 16.8 | 7.9% | 16.9% | +30.3% | +34% / +48% |
| BBT.WABoomBit Spółka Akcyjna | 71.4 m | 4.5 | 20.7% | 6.4% | −16.5% | −19% / −57% |
| BBD.WABbi Development S.A. | 54.1 m | 1.1 | 36.0% | 208.3% | +50.2% | +1% / +9% |
| ALG.WAAll in! Games Spółka Akcyjna | 39.8 m | — | — | -156.9% | −72.2% | −27% / −56% |
| BMX.WABioMaxima Spółka Akcyjna | 37.0 m | 63.2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | −67.5% | −29% / −45% |
| 06N.WAMagna Polonia Spółka Akcyjna | 31.3 m | 0.5 | 115.4% | 964.7% | +13.0% | −28% / −42% |
| BCM.WABETACOM Spółka Akcyjna | 26.7 m | 17.6 | 8.0% | 0.9% | +21.3% | +8% / +4% |
| AWM.WAAirway Medix Spółka Akcyjna | 14.3 m | — | -25.8% | -117,400.0% | −97.7% | −23% / −43% |
| ASM.WAAsm Group Spółka Akcyjna | 7.2 m | — | -6.6% | -1.2% | +1.9% | −70% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TRK.WA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (PLN)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 2.12 Total return -18% · Per year -18% | 3.73 Total return 39% · Per year 39% | 5.60 Total return 104% · Per year 104% |
| 3 years | 2.52 Total return 25% · Per year 8% | 4.94 Total return 121% · Per year 30% | 8.06 Total return 239% · Per year 50% |
| 5 years | 2.98 Total return 76% · Per year 12% | 6.53 Total return 230% · Per year 27% | 11.61 Total return 434% · Per year 40% |
- Exit P/E± 1.23
- Net margin± 0.86
- Annual revenue growth± 0.64
- Annual dilution± 0.07
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Trakcja is a Polish joint-stock company active in building and modernising railway infrastructure, with most of its shares held by PKP PLK. It returned to profit in 2023 after a large loss in 2022, but remains dependent on extending its financing and settling mediations with its main client, with an order backlog of 1 905 mln zł at year end 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A consistent order backlog and a relationship with an important public client, which also underpins its financing.
- Return to profit in 2023 after a large loss, with new contracts signed during the year.
- Experience in executing complex railway infrastructure works, including telecommunications systems.
Weaknesses
- Negative working capital at year end 2023 and equity below the share capital.
- Reliance on mediation settlements for positive results, which are not recurring revenue.
- Large financial debt with near-term maturities and high financing costs.
Opportunities
- New railway infrastructure contracts that could strengthen the order backlog.
- Better margins through more prudent bidding and valuation of new contracts.
- Sale of non-strategic assets could bring liquidity to stabilise financing.
Threats
- Failure to meet financial covenants at the 2024 test could trigger financing restrictions.
- If the Torprojekt sale agreement is not concluded, the risk of breaching equity conditions remains high.
- High interest rates and construction cost pressure could reduce profitability in the coming years.
Risks
- Going concernhigh
Management flagged uncertainty about the company's ability to continue as a going concern and to obtain extended financing.
- Financial covenantshigh
The first test of financial ratios is scheduled for 2024, and a failure could lead to early repayment of loans.
- Equity capitalmedium
With equity below share capital, a breach of a financing clause could arise if the Torprojekt sale is delayed.
- Client dependencemedium
Results and financing depend on PKP PLK, which is at once shareholder, client and creditor, concentrating the risk.
- Contract margin riskmedium
Fixed-price contracts with rising costs could generate losses if they are not updated correctly.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The return to profit in 2023 and an order backlog above 1 900 mln zł show the business can be restored, especially if new contract margins improve.
- If financing is extended and the settlements are collected, working capital could turn positive and ease pressure on the balance sheet.
- Public demand for railway infrastructure remains a support for work volume, and the new contracts signed in 2023 confirm this.
What would break the thesis
- The 2023 profit relied largely on settlements and budget updates rather than recurring profitability, which makes the result fragile.
- Uncertainty about going concern and the risk of failing the covenants could force much harsher financing terms.
- Full dependence on the shareholder-client and high interest rates could limit the company's ability to invest and rebuild its balance sheet.
What to watch
- Extension of financing deadlines and fulfilment of conditions set by PKP PLKQ2 2024
- First test of financial covenants for the company and the groupQ2 2024
- Completion of the Torprojekt sale and its effect on equity2024
- Development of the order backlog and margins on new contracts2024
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Trakcja, together with its group, carries out construction and modernisation of railway lines, railway traffic control systems and rail telecommunications networks, mainly for PKP Polskie Linie Kolejowe. The parent is Trakcja S.A., and the group's situation depends closely on that of the parent 1. Contracts are construction-type, with variable revenue from price indexation and mediations, which makes results sensitive to approval of budget changes 1. In 2023 the company earned a net profit of 37 776 tys. zł after a loss of 287 212 tys. zł in 2022 1.
The analysed source does not break out separate segments; the core activity is contracting for railway infrastructure, and the group also includes subsidiaries in Lithuania, Latvia, Sweden and Ukraine with their respective functional currencies 1. The executive board changed at the start of 2024, with the president resigning and a board member temporarily taking over the role 1.
As an issuer listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Trakcja reports in złoty, and the annual figures are consolidated and prepared under IFRS as adopted by the EU 1. The financial statements were marked by uncertainty about going concern, and management identified steps to reduce these risks during 2023 1.
Segments
Railway construction
The group's main activity is executing construction contracts for railway lines and installations, including traffic control systems, telecommunications and post-warranty services 1. The order backlog of 1 905 mln zł at 31 December 2023 points to contracted work spanning several years 1.
Related services and design
The group includes design and service companies, among them Torprojekt, whose sale to PKP PLK was negotiated and postponed through an amendment signed in 2024 1.
Market context
The reference market is public investment in railway infrastructure in Poland and the Baltic states, where the main client is the state rail line operator. Demand depends on public funding programmes and the pace of tenders, and in 2023 the company signed new contracts worth 1 002 mln zł but needed extra financing for working capital 1.
Rising construction costs and interest rates directly affect margins and the cost of financing, and contracts with indexation and mediations with the main client can change annual results quickly 1.
Trends
- Profit recovery through settlementsmixed
The positive 2023 result rested largely on mediation settlements with PKP PLK and fourth-quarter budget updates rather than only on current execution 1.
- High interest ratesheadwind
The elevated WIBOR level made debt service costs very high in 2023 and could stay high in the coming years if rates do not fall 1.
- Public railway investmenttailwind
New contracts signed in 2023, including the Gliwice Łabędy project, show that demand for railway works remains active, which could support revenue volume 1.
- Dependence on a single clientheadwind
The majority shareholder PKP PLK is also the main client and recourse creditor, and any extension of financing depends on its decisions, which could limit the company's flexibility 1.
Competitive position
The source does not list direct competitors of Trakcja. In the Polish railway construction market, competition comes from other construction firms and consortia bidding for the same public contracts, and results depend on the ability to win new contracts at good margins 1.
Trakcja stated that it is improving its bidding and contract valuation to obtain better gross margins, but the source does not measure its position relative to competitors 1.
- Polish railway construction firms
The analysed source names no individual competitors; rail construction firms in Poland cannot be confirmed from this document.
- Construction consortia for public contracts
Consortia and firms with which Trakcja cooperates or competes in tenders are not identified in the source.
- Railway traffic control system suppliers
Competition in railway safety and telecommunications systems is not detailed in the source.
- Railway design companies
Design competitors are not mentioned; the source describes only the sale of Torprojekt to the client.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202324 Apr 2024
- Annual report 202324 Apr 2024
- Annual report 202209 May 2023
- Annual report 202109 May 2023
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2023-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Trakcja Spółka Akcyjna · 31 Dec 2023
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.