olivLaw · US equity research
ADT Inc. ADT
Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services · SIC 7381 · Vertical: Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services (SIC 7381)
ADT Inc. is a major provider of security, interactive and smart home solutions for residential and small business customers in the United States, with roughly 6.1 million monitoring subscribers at the end of 2025. The company is shifting toward a platform model built on its ADT+ app and AI-based presence sensing, while the first half of 2026 was dominated by cash generation and capital returns to shareholders.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, ADT Inc. (ADT) stock was 9.90 USD (+0.51% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.5 bn USD, P/E 12.2 on diluted EPS of -0.57 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.22%, beta 0.68, 52-week range 6.08–9.90 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.3 bn USD (+3.9% YoY), net income of 150.6 m USD (+3.8% YoY).
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 87.8
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.84 – 10.25
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.93 · band width 71.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 7.12 / 7.11
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.80 / 0.44
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +59.4% | −1.1% | +60.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +28.6% | −0.5% | +29.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +41.8% | +4.4% | +37.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +22.7% | +12.3% | +10.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +22.5% | +13.5% | +9.0 pp | −36.8% |
| 3 years | +61.5% | +76.4% | −14.9 pp | +67.4% |
| 5 years | +9.5% | +63.7% | −54.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn |
| SG&A | 379.9 m | 368.6 m | 356.1 m | 384.4 m | 360.4 m | 364.8 m | 385.9 m | 400.4 m |
| Operating income | 305.4 m | 319.3 m | 342.0 m | 315.1 m | 332.6 m | 325.4 m | 315.9 m | 310.5 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 340.7 m | 339.5 m | 338.7 m | 347.8 m | 341.1 m | 345.5 m | 346.9 m | 345.3 m |
| Pre-tax income | 226.6 m | 193.5 m | 227.0 m | 198.6 m | 214.7 m | 227.5 m | 215.9 m | 209.4 m |
| Income tax | 29.3 m | 51.0 m | 58.7 m | 55.1 m | 68.4 m | 58.1 m | 60.8 m | 56.5 m |
| Net income | 190.0 m | 140.2 m | 165.2 m | 145.1 m | 145.4 m | 168.4 m | 153.9 m | 150.6 m |
| Operating cash flow | 459.7 m | 466.6 m | 563.9 m ≈ | 480.1 m ≈ | 373.6 m | 638.1 m | 666.4 m ≈ | 440.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 33.7 m | 45.4 m | 37.6 m ≈ | 42.6 m ≈ | 50.1 m | 48.9 m | 46.2 m ≈ | 45.8 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 50.1 m | 48.9 m | 47.1 m ≈ | 45.8 m ≈ | 45.0 m | 45.0 m | 44.9 m ≈ | 40.6 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 147.2 m | 396.6 m | 98.5 m ≈ | 111.7 m ≈ | 0 | 115.9 m | 484.1 m ≈ | 23.3 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.6 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.3 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +6.2% | +11.9% | +3.7% | −20.9% | +4.3% | +6.2% | +5.3% | +4.7% |
| Net income | -609.2 m | -424.2 m | -632.2 m | -340.8 m | 132.7 m | 463.0 m | 501.1 m | 596.0 m |
| Net income YoY | −277.8% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +249.0% | +8.2% | +18.9% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.81 | -0.57 | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −252.8% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -13.3% | -8.3% | -11.9% | -8.1% | 3.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.6% |
| Free cash flow | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 80.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 7.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- 7.6 bn USD
- Equity
- 3.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 15.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.04x
- Current ratio
- 0.93x
- ROE
- 15.7%
- ROA
- 3.7%
- FCF margin
- 33.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.3 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 40.6 m | 9.8 m | 725.1 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 2.0 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 710.0 m | 457.0 m | 277.0 m | 586.0 m | 451.0 m | 470.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -778.9 m | -475.8 m | 404.5 m | 604.4 m | 815.2 m | 833.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -146.7 m | -131.7 m | 87.7 m | 160.6 m | 195.8 m | 233.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -632.2 m | -340.8 m | 132.7 m | 463.0 m | 501.1 m | 596.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.22 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 205.0 m | 24.5 m | 257.2 m | 14.6 m | 96.2 m | 80.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 336.0 m | 442.2 m | 334.6 m | 370.2 m | 393.5 m | 384.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 967.4 m | 992.5 m | 1.7 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 945.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 325.7 m | 364.1 m | 306.2 m | 253.7 m | 247.2 m | 243.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 5.2 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.4 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 5.9 bn | 5.4 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 16.1 bn | 16.9 bn | 17.8 bn | 16.0 bn | 16.1 bn | 15.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 321.6 m | 475.0 m | 417.9 m | 277.2 m | 153.5 m | 107.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 44.8 m | 117.6 m | 857.6 m | 312.1 m | 195.8 m | 310.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 9.4 bn | 9.6 bn | 8.9 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 13.1 bn | 13.6 bn | 14.4 bn | 12.2 bn | 12.3 bn | 12.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.0 bn † | 3.2 bn † | 3.4 bn † | 3.8 bn † | 3.8 bn † | 3.8 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 157.2 m | 168.2 m | 176.7 m | 176.4 m | 163.8 m | 175.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.1 bn | -1.7 bn | -1.5 bn | 242.5 m | -1.3 bn | -1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -70.3 m | -128.4 m | -14.8 m | -2.1 bn | -515.4 m | -861.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 109.3 m | 116.3 m | 127.1 m | 128.6 m | 182.3 m | 186.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 4.0 k | 0 | 1.2 bn | 0 | 240.6 m | 606.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 66 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 7.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation88
- Returns100
- Quality71
- Balance sheet22
- Growth45
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.89 – 106.02 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)47.60 – 106.02 (Mid 66.57)WACC 6.8% · starting FCFF 2.3 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 82%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
- Dividend discount (DDM)2.89 – 3.89 (Mid 3.32)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 66/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.2% | 47 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.9% | 80 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 311.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.4% | 45 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 33 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.7x | 19 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 12.2x | 81 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 5.7x | 85 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 25.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 10.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 9.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet22/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial45/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation88/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ADT Inc. (ADT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.7%; net margin 11.9%; ROE 16.9%; net debt/EBITDA 2.8x.
The estimated value range is 25.24–54.96 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 34.94 USD, the price of 9.90 USD leaves a potential of 253.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 71.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 66/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 11.9%
- FCF conversion: 311.8%
- P/E (TTM): 12.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 5.7x
- FCF yield: 25.6%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 10.6%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 9.1%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.7x
- Current ratio: 0.5x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services (SIC 7381) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLEAllegion plc | 16.2 bn | 24.0 | 33.6% | 15.7% | +7.8% | +16% / +82% |
| ADTADT Inc. | 7.5 bn | 12.2 | 16.9% | 11.9% | +4.7% | +23% / +62% |
| ARLOArlo Technologies, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 56.3 | 22.1% | 5.2% | +3.6% | +5% / +67% |
| GFAIGuardforce Ai Co., Limited | 4.6 m | — | -20.5% | -16.1% | +0.2% | −79% / −95% |
| SUGPSU Group Holdings Ltd | 2.5 m | — | -20.1% | -9.6% | +5.5% | −99% / unavailable |
| CIGLConcorde International Group Ltd | — | — | -3,579.0% | -797.3% | −1.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ADT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 5.90 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 10.43 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 15.71 Total return 59% · Per year 59% |
| 3 years | 5.83 Total return -41% · Per year -16% | 11.59 Total return 17% · Per year 5% | 19.14 Total return 93% · Per year 25% |
| 5 years | 5.76 Total return -42% · Per year -10% | 12.87 Total return 30% · Per year 5% | 23.32 Total return 136% · Per year 19% |
- Exit P/E± 2.90
- Net margin± 2.03
- Annual revenue growth± 1.65
- Annual dilution± 0.17
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).
In brief
ADT Inc. is a major provider of security, interactive and smart home solutions for residential and small business customers in the United States, with roughly 6.1 million monitoring subscribers at the end of 2025 1. The company is shifting toward a platform model built on its ADT+ app and AI-based presence sensing, while the first half of 2026 was dominated by cash generation and capital returns to shareholders 23.
SWOT
Strengths
- The ADT brand has a long history and a reputation for trust, which matters to customers choosing security products 1. A large subscriber base and recurring revenue give predictability and cash generation capacity 13.
- The ADT+ platform integrates the user experience, customer service and back-end support, which can lower service costs through remote assistance 1. The company has also improved call centre efficiency through AI tools 3.
- Operating cash flow and the ability to return capital to shareholders show financial discipline, even in a year of nearly flat revenue 3.
Weaknesses
- Gross customer attrition has stayed high and rose year over year, eroding the recurring revenue base 12.
- Revenue growth increasingly relies on equipment sales, which carry lower margins than recurring monitoring 13.
- Dependence on Google for devices and services under exclusivity for DIFM customers limits commercial flexibility in some segments 1.
Opportunities
- The DIY segment and the retail and e-commerce channels can reach customers not served by traditional professional installation 13.
- AI presence sensing technology, acquired with Origin AI, could support more precise alarms and new use cases such as wellness monitoring 1.
- If attrition falls, each percentage point of improvement could have a significant impact on annual recurring revenue 1.
Threats
- Price pressure from DIY providers and large technology companies could reduce margins and market share 1.
- A weaker macroeconomic environment and a slower housing market could raise non-payment and reduce new subscriber additions 12.
- Software defects, cloud outages or security vulnerabilities could affect core security functions and the company's reputation 1.
Risks
- Customer attritionhigh
If attrition stays high or rises, recurring revenue could fall more than expected and contract amortisation could accelerate 12.
- Price competitionhigh
Lower-priced offers from professional and DIY competitors could force price cuts or a loss of market share 1.
- Dependence on Googlemedium
A failure of the partnership, or a future Google security product competing with ADT, could seriously affect the DIFM business 1.
- Platform technology riskmedium
Defects, vulnerabilities or outages in the ADT+ platform could affect safety functions and customer trust 1.
- Integration of Origin AIlow
Integrating and commercialising Origin AI technology could take longer than expected or fail to deliver the anticipated benefits 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If attrition stabilises and the DIY and retail expansion reaches scale, recurring revenue growth could return in coming years 13.
- Strong cash generation and the buyback programme could continue to support shareholder value while the company keeps its discipline 3.
- AI presence sensing technology could open new revenue streams and differentiate ADT from competitors 13.
What would break the thesis
- If attrition stays at current levels, growth in the recurring revenue base could remain weak and revenue could depend largely on equipment sales 12.
- Pressure from better-resourced and DIY competitors could prevent a recovery in margins 1.
- The roughly 2% revenue growth projected for 2026 signals limited momentum, and the cash flow targets depend on lower acquisition spending and lower cash taxes 3.
What to watch
- Trend in gross customer revenue attrition and RMRQ3 2026
- Delivery of the roughly 30% growth target for adjusted free cash flow2026
- Share of outright equipment sales in new subscriptions and its effect on marginsnext 10-K
- Adoption of ADT Blu and the new distribution channels2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (03 Nov 2026).
The business
ADT operates under the ADT brand, associated with security services since 1874, and offers burglar and life safety alarms, smart cameras, home automation and video surveillance 1. The company is evolving toward a platform-centric software-as-a-product model built around its proprietary ADT+ app, which integrates professionally installed and self-installed solutions 1. In July 2026 ADT launched ADT Blu, a self-installed solution with optional professional monitoring, and expanded its channels, including Amazon 3.
Segments
Single reportable segment
ADT reports one operating and reportable segment because its chief executive, as chief operating decision maker, manages the business on a consolidated basis 1. Revenue from customers outside the U.S. is not material 1. Revenue has two main lines: monitoring and related services, which edged down in the second quarter of 2026, and security installation, product and other revenue, which rose 3.
Monitoring and related services
This line represents the recurring revenue from monitoring subscriptions, which forms the predictable base of the business 1. In the quarter to June 30, 2026, monitoring revenue slipped year over year, reflecting the loss of revenue from the October 2025 divestiture of the multifamily business 3.
Market context
ADT competes in the U.S. residential and small business security market, which is fragmented and subject to strong price competition, and where acquiring a subscriber requires significant upfront investment recovered in roughly two years 1. Demand depends on economic conditions, the housing market, perceived crime threat and technology change 1. Rising preference for DIY solutions and AI-based detection creates room for growth but also pressure on the traditional professional installation model 1.
Relocations are sensitive to the residential housing market, and non-payment disconnects generally rise in a weaker macroeconomic environment 2. Customer attrition therefore depends on the economic cycle as well as on company execution 2.
Trends
- Shift to outright equipment salesmixed
A growing share of new subscriptions involves the customer owning the equipment outright, which raises installation and product revenue and the related costs 12. This change in accounting model can make quarterly results harder to compare over time 2.
- Rising demand for DIY and AI solutionstailwind
Customers increasingly seek flexible self-installed solutions, and AI presence sensing could reduce false alarms and extend use cases 13. The Origin AI acquisition, closed in February 2026, supports this direction 1.
- Customer attritionheadwind
Gross attrition rose in 2025 and stayed elevated into mid-2026, driven by non-payment and voluntary disconnects 12. Higher attrition feeds directly into lower recurring revenue 1.
- Cash generation and capital returnstailwind
Operating cash flow rose in the second quarter of 2026, and the company repurchased shares and paid dividends 3. The company says it is prioritising cash flow, buybacks and disciplined subscriber acquisition spending 3.
Competitive position
Competition comes from two directions: professional providers offering lower installation and monitoring fees, and DIY companies such as SimpliSafe, Wyze Home Monitoring and Amazon Ring 1. Cable, telecom and large technology companies bundle security with other services, often at lower monthly monitoring rates 1.
In the DIY segment, larger rivals can cross-subsidise their offers from other products, which could accelerate attrition at ADT 1. ADT's expansion into retail and e-commerce channels brings it into direct contact with consumer electronics brands of greater scale 1.
- SimpliSafe
provider of self-installed security systems with optional monitoring, a direct rival in the DIY segment 1
- Wyze Home Monitoring
monitoring service for DIY devices, named as a rival in the self-installed segment 1
- Amazon Ring
range of home security devices competing in the DIY segment and through online channels 1
- Cable, telecom and technology companies
providers that bundle security into service packages, often at lower monitoring rates 1
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Oct 2026Material agreement · Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Oct 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Aug 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / ADT Inc. · 02 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / ADT Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / ADT Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.