olivLaw · US equity research
SU Group Holdings Ltd SUGP
Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services · SIC 7381 · Vertical: Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services (SIC 7381)
SU Group Holdings Ltd (SUGP) is a security services group operating in Hong Kong, with Shine Union designing, supplying and maintaining security systems and Fortune Jet providing guarding and screening services. The company reported revenues of HK$192.4 million (US$24.7 million) for fiscal 2025, up 5.6%. Its relevance now also reflects its Nasdaq status, after it received compliance notices in 2025.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, SU Group Holdings Ltd (SUGP) stock was 1.69 USD (+1.81% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.5 m USD, beta 0.27, 52-week range 1.59–213.90 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 31.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.29 – 2.24
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.42 · band width 54.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.82 / 72.61
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.54 / -0.70
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −29.4% | −1.1% | −28.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −85.3% | −0.5% | −84.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −98.7% | +4.4% | −103.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −99.1% | +12.3% | −111.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −99.0% | +13.5% | −112.6 pp | +10.5% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +68.0% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | 20.9 m | 23.4 m | 24.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +12.1% | +5.5% |
| Net income | unavailable | unavailable | 1.2 m | 1.4 m | -2.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +10.7% | −273.3% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | 0.10 | 0.11 | -1.72 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +10.0% | −1,663.6% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | 5.9% | 5.8% | -9.6% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | -1.8 m | 1.4 m | -2.2 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 3.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 11.1 m USD
- Total assets
- 16.2 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.82x
- ROE
- -20.1%
- ROA
- -13.1%
- FCF margin
- -8.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | 20.9 m | 23.4 m | 24.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | — | 14.8 m | 17.3 m | 20.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Gross profit | — | — | 6.1 m | 6.1 m | 4.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Research & development | 17.2 k | 200.0 k | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| SG&A | — | — | 4.7 m | 4.6 m | 6.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Operating income | — | — | 1.4 m | 1.4 m | -2.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.1 m | 2.3 m | 933.0 k | 1.6 m | 2.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | — | 2.3 m ≈ | 3.0 m ≈ | -114.5 k ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | — | — | 1.6 m | 1.5 m | -2.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Income tax | — | — | 298.7 k | 168.2 k | -82.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Net income | — | — | 1.2 m | 1.4 m | -2.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | 0.10 | 0.11 | -1.72 | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 12.0 m | 12.0 m | 1.2 m | 1.3 m | 1.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | 3.2 m | 2.1 m | 6.7 m | 3.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | — | 4.5 m | 2.8 m | 2.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | — | 5.2 m | 6.1 m | 3.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | — | 12.4 m | 17.4 m | 12.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | — | 1.1 m | 1.1 m | 875.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | 162.4 k | 163.5 k | 163.3 k | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | — | 18.5 k | 34.5 k | 24.9 k | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | — | 14.6 m | 20.2 m | 16.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | — | 7.0 m | 6.9 m | 4.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | — | 7.4 m | 7.6 m | 5.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Equity | — | — | 7.2 m | 12.6 m † | 11.1 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | — | — | -1.7 m | 1.8 m | -2.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Capex | — | — | 99.0 k | 388.4 k | 210.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | — | -1.8 m ≈ | 1.4 m ≈ | -2.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | — | — | -14.3 k | -417.6 k | -210.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | — | — | 611.6 k | 3.2 m | 12 | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Jan 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 17.0 m | 8.0 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jan 2024verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.5 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
19% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -9.6% | 40 (vs peers) | 33% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -88.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 44% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial40/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SU Group Holdings Ltd (SUGP). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 24.7 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.5%; net margin -9.6%; ROE -20.1%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.8x
What contradicts it
- FCF yield: -88.7%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services (SIC 7381) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLEAllegion plc | 16.2 bn | 24.0 | 33.6% | 15.7% | +7.8% | +16% / +82% |
| ADTADT Inc. | 7.5 bn | 12.2 | 16.9% | 11.9% | +4.7% | +20% / +69% |
| ARLOArlo Technologies, Inc. | 1.6 bn | 56.3 | 22.1% | 5.2% | +3.6% | +5% / +67% |
| GFAIGuardforce Ai Co., Limited | 4.6 m | — | -20.5% | -16.1% | +0.2% | −79% / −95% |
| SUGPSU Group Holdings Ltd | 2.5 m | — | -20.1% | -9.6% | +5.5% | −99% / unavailable |
| CIGLConcorde International Group Ltd | — | — | -3,579.0% | -797.3% | −1.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SUGP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Jan 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Oct 2026), 6-K (29 Sept 2026), 6-K (15 Sept 2026), 6-K (21 Aug 2026).
In brief
SU Group Holdings Ltd (SUGP) is a security services group operating in Hong Kong, with Shine Union designing, supplying and maintaining security systems and Fortune Jet providing guarding and screening services. The company reported revenues of HK$192.4 million (US$24.7 million) for fiscal 2025, up 5.6% 1. Its relevance now also reflects its Nasdaq status, after it received compliance notices in 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Stable relationships with a broad base of recurring customers and an integrated range of security services 1.
- Exclusive distribution of two threat detection system brands and authorized distributor status for several more 1.
- More than two decades of experience in security and infrastructure projects in Hong Kong 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on recurring customershigh
If recurring customers stop engaging the company and revenue is not replaced, results could be significantly affected 1.
- Labour costhigh
A shortage of qualified guarding and screening staff or higher wage costs could affect margins and the ability to fulfil contracts 1.
- Nasdaq compliancemedium
The source describes notices on minimum bid price and public float requirements, with a risk of delisting if not resolved 1.
- Government policymedium
Changes in security or Smart City policy could alter demand for the company's services 1.
- Service mix and marginslow
Shifts in project mix can cause gross margin swings that are difficult to anticipate 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If revenue keeps growing and the recurring customer base stays stable, the company could strengthen its position in a market with moderate entry barriers 1.
- The integrated offer across engineering, guarding and screening could generate cross-selling and larger market share 1.
- Smart City policies could support demand for security systems over the longer term 1.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on new contracts and recurring clients could make revenue volatile if a major customer withdraws 1.
- Labour-intensive guarding and competition for staff could erode margins in guarding and screening 1.
- Concentration in Hong Kong could expose the company to local economic or regulatory shocks 1.
What to watch
- Trend in security engineering revenue and the number of recurring customersnext 10-K
- Status of Nasdaq compliance and any new notices2027
- Gross margins by segment, especially guarding and screeningQ1 2027
- Effect of Smart City policies on the volume of new contracts2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Jan 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Oct 2026), 6-K (29 Sept 2026), 6-K (15 Sept 2026), 6-K (21 Aug 2026).
The business
Through Shine Union, established in 1998, the group provides security engineering services: design, supply, installation and maintenance of threat detection systems, traffic and pedestrian control systems and ELV systems 1. Through Fortune Jet, acquired in 2019, it provides security guarding, screening and related vocational training in Hong Kong 1. The company is a holding company with no material operations of its own, with business conducted entirely through its subsidiaries 1.
The business model combines project-based contracts with standalone maintenance and equipment leasing contracts. Shine Union is an authorized distributor for over 10 brands of security systems and the exclusive distributor for two brands of threat detection systems 1. Customers include system integrators, logistics companies and an air cargo terminal operator in Hong Kong 1.
The sources show that a significant part of revenue comes from recurring customers, and contracts are obtained either through direct quotation requests or competitive tendering 1. The company is therefore exposed both to the pace of infrastructure projects in Hong Kong and to its ability to win new contracts 1.
Segments
Market context
The reference market is security services in Hong Kong, where the company describes its position across several integrated service types 1. According to the source, demand depends on private and public infrastructure development, events and government policies, including Smart City initiatives 1.
Entry barriers and setup costs are described as moderate, and services are regulated through a permit and licence system 1. Competition is described as fierce, particularly in related vocational training 1.
Trends
- Smart City policiestailwind
Hong Kong government Smart City initiatives could increase demand for security systems and services, as the source anticipates 1.
- Dependence on new contractsheadwind
Results could be affected if existing customers stop engaging the company and it fails to win sufficiently large new contracts 1.
- Labour cost and availabilityheadwind
Guarding and screening are labour-intensive, so a shortage of staff or rising wage costs could reduce profitability 1.
- Service mixmixed
Gross margins vary with project types and service mix, which makes profitability trends harder to predict 1.
Competitive position
The company states it faces significant competition in security engineering and in guarding, screening and vocational training in Hong Kong 1. Its stated differentiation rests on a comprehensive solution range, flexibility, reputation and access to skilled professionals 1.
The source does not explicitly name US-listed competitors, which limits a direct comparison of competitive position 1. The group's stated advantage remains its integrated service offer, which could attract clients preferring a single provider 1.
- Local Hong Kong security service providers
The source mentions numerous providers of security and vocational training services without naming them 1.
- System integrators and main contractors
They may engage the company as a subcontractor or compete for the same infrastructure projects 1.
- Security vocational training providers
Competition is described as fierce, with some participants able to gain share through additional courses 1.
- Guarding firms competing for part-time staff
Competition for flexible personnel may require more attractive pay packages 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- SU Group Secures Exclusive Macao Rights for Inspec Spider Robotic Inspection SolutionYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- What's Going On With SU Group Stock Monday?Yahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 24 Aug 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Jul 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / SU Group Holdings Ltd · 16 Jan 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.