olivLaw · US equity research
Allstate Corporation (The Allstate Corporation) ALL
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance · SIC 6331 · Vertical: Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance (SIC 6331)
Allstate Corporation is one of the largest publicly held personal lines insurers in the United States, focused on auto and homeowners plus protection services. In the first half of 2026 revenue and underwriting results rose, with second-quarter revenue of 18.6 billion USD, while the investment portfolio stood at 83.24 billion USD at the end of 2025.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Allstate Corporation (The Allstate Corporation) (ALL) stock was 269.06 USD (+2.89% on the day), with market capitalisation 66.6 bn USD, P/E 6.1 on diluted EPS of 44.16 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.58%, beta 0.25, 52-week range 192.28–275.11 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 17.3 bn USD (+0.5% YoY), net income of 2.1 bn USD (−44.5% YoY), diluted EPS 8.03 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 69.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 226.52 – 271.58
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.94 · band width 18.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 245.85 / 229.40
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 6.47 / 4.24
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +19.7% | −1.1% | +20.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.7% | −0.5% | +2.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +23.5% | +4.4% | +19.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +29.3% | +12.3% | +16.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +37.8% | +13.5% | +24.3 pp | +7.3% |
| 3 years | +104.3% | +76.4% | +27.8 pp | +58.6% |
| 5 years | +129.7% | +63.7% | +66.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16.5 bn | 16.5 bn | 16.6 bn | 17.3 bn | 17.3 bn | 16.9 bn | 18.6 bn | 17.3 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 151.0 m | 132.0 m | 127.0 m ≈ | 115.0 m ≈ | 108.0 m | 101.0 m | 86.0 m ≈ | 81.0 m ≈ |
| Income tax | 559.0 m | 123.0 m | 604.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 650.0 m | 871.0 m | 537.0 m |
| Net income | 1.9 bn | 595.0 m | 2.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.8 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 7.07 | 2.11 | 7.76 | 13.95 | 14.37 | 9.25 | 12.51 | 8.03 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn ≈ | 3.3 bn ≈ | 3.0 bn | 3.6 bn | 2.6 bn ≈ | 3.8 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 50.0 m | 92.0 m | -1.0 m ≈ | 48.0 m ≈ | 89.0 m | 40.0 m | 43.0 m ≈ | 62.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 243.0 m | 244.0 m | 265.0 m ≈ | 264.0 m ≈ | 263.0 m | 261.0 m | 280.0 m ≈ | 275.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 2.0 m | 99.0 m | 340.0 m ≈ | 360.0 m ≈ | 434.0 m | 614.0 m | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 11 percentile of its own 38-quarter history (min 4.6, median 12.0, max 43.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 39.8 bn | 41.5 bn | 41.9 bn | 50.6 bn | 51.4 bn | 57.1 bn | 64.1 bn | 67.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +1.0% | +4.3% | +0.9% | +20.7% | +1.6% | +11.1% | +12.3% | +5.6% |
| Net income | 2.2 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.6 bn | 1.6 bn | -1.3 bn | -188.0 m | 4.7 bn | 10.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | −39.2% | +124.4% | +15.0% | −71.1% | −179.9% | unavailable | unavailable | +120.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.70 | 14.03 | 17.31 | 5.01 | -5.14 | -1.20 | 16.99 | 38.06 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −39.0% | +146.1% | +23.4% | −71.1% | −202.6% | unavailable | unavailable | +124.0% |
| net % | 5.4% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 3.2% | -2.5% | -0.3% | 7.3% | 15.2% |
| Free cash flow | 4.9 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.0 bn | 8.7 bn | 9.9 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 678.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 7.5 bn USD
- Net debt
- 6.8 bn USD
- Equity
- 30.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 119.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.24x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 39.6%
- ROA
- 8.9%
- FCF margin
- 14.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | — | — | — | -348.0 m | 5.8 bn | 13.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 5.6 bn | 1.6 bn | -1.3 bn | -188.0 m | 4.7 bn | 10.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 17.31 | 5.01 | -5.14 | -1.20 | 16.99 | 38.06 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.16 | 3.24 | 3.40 | 3.56 | 3.68 | 4.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 311.0 m | 763.0 m | 736.0 m | 722.0 m | 704.0 m | 678.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 126.0 bn | 99.4 bn | 98.0 bn | 103.4 bn | 111.6 bn | 119.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 7.8 bn | 8.0 bn | 8.0 bn | 7.9 bn | 8.1 bn | 7.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 95.8 bn | 74.3 bn | 80.6 bn | 85.7 bn | 90.3 bn | 89.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | -298.0 m | 24.9 bn | 17.4 bn | 17.6 bn | 21.4 bn | 30.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 668.0 m | 885.0 m | 926.0 m | 925.0 m | 962.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 335.0 m | 2.0 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 78 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 66.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet100
- Growth96
- Quality100
- Returns56
- Valuation64
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 164.87 – 819.84 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income233.24 – 244.61 (Mid 238.83)
- Justified P/B609.62 – 819.84 (Mid 699.27)
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate52.56 – 70.69 (Mid 60.29)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
- Peers: P/E435.68 – 605.89 (Mid 522.19)11 companies used · median multiple 11.8x · quartiles 9.9x – 13.7xACGL, AIG, CB, CINF, EG, HIG, L, MKL, PGR, TRV, WRB
- Peers: P/B164.87 – 316.62 (Mid 235.95)11 companies used · median multiple 1.8x · quartiles 1.3x – 2.4xACGL, AIG, CB, CINF, EG, HIG, L, MKL, PGR, TRV, WRB
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 78/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 38.9% | 100 (vs peers) | 23% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 9.6% | 96 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 9.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/B · Valuation | 2.1x | 27 (vs peers) | 18% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 6.1x | 100 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 1.6% | 30 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 9.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth· partial96/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns56/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation64/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ALLSTATE CORP (ALL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 5.6%; net margin 16.6%; ROE 38.9%.
The estimated value range is 334.46–461.26 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 380.51 USD, the price of 269.06 USD leaves a potential of 41.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 29.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 78/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, quality. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROE: 38.9%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.6%
- ROA: 9.4%
- P/E (TTM): 6.1x
- Payout ratio (EPS): 9.6%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- P/B: 2.1x
- Dividend yield: 1.6%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio, EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance (SIC 6331) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 8.2 bn and 524.1 bn (within 8× of the company's); 46 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBChubb Limited | 143.0 bn | 13.1 | 15.5% | 18.2% | +6.5% | +26% / +63% |
| PGRProgressive Corp | 136.0 bn | 11.8 | 33.2% | 12.7% | +16.3% | +3% / +43% |
| TRVTravelers Companies, Inc. | 83.9 bn | 10.7 | 27.5% | 17.0% | +5.2% | +40% / +127% |
| ALLAllstate Corp | 66.6 bn | 6.1 | 38.9% | 16.6% | +5.6% | +38% / +104% |
| AIGAmerican International Group, Inc. | 42.4 bn | 13.3 | 8.2% | 11.9% | −1.7% | +7% / +24% |
| HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | 36.9 bn | 8.3 | 24.7% | 15.4% | +6.9% | +1% / +77% |
| ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | 36.0 bn | 9.0 | 18.7% | 23.3% | +14.3% | +18% / +32% |
| CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | 29.2 bn | 11.2 | 16.9% | 20.1% | +11.4% | +14% / +85% |
| WRBBerkley W R Corp | 28.5 bn | 16.2 | 19.2% | 12.5% | +7.8% | −1% / +59% |
| MKLMarkel Group Inc. | 23.9 bn | 14.1 | 9.8% | 11.4% | +4.7% | −6% / +36% |
| LLoews Corp | 22.6 bn | 15.4 | 8.1% | 7.9% | +5.4% | +4% / +59% |
| EGEverest Group, Ltd. | 15.6 bn | 8.9 | 12.8% | 11.7% | +1.2% | +34% / +3% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ALL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 178.08 Total return -32% · Per year -32% | 314.10 Total return 19% · Per year 19% | 472.11 Total return 78% · Per year 78% |
| 3 years | 191.00 Total return -25% · Per year -9% | 377.30 Total return 46% · Per year 14% | 620.03 Total return 138% · Per year 34% |
| 5 years | 204.86 Total return -16% · Per year -4% | 453.22 Total return 80% · Per year 12% | 814.31 Total return 217% · Per year 26% |
- Exit P/E± 94.32
- Net margin± 66.03
- Annual revenue growth± 51.67
- Annual dilution± 5.55
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Allstate Corporation is one of the largest publicly held personal lines insurers in the United States, focused on auto and homeowners plus protection services. In the first half of 2026 revenue and underwriting results rose, with second-quarter revenue of 18.6 billion USD 3, while the investment portfolio stood at 83.24 billion USD at the end of 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Well known brand and broad network of exclusive agents and direct channel that support policy and premium growth 13.
- High return on equity, with rising underwriting results and solid investment portfolio 12.
- Diversification across auto, homeowners, device protection and identity services, reducing reliance on a single line 1.
Weaknesses
- High exposure to catastrophe and severe weather events, whose costs can swing sharply from one quarter to the next 1.
- Rising claims and operating costs could reduce margins if pricing does not keep pace with inflation 13.
- The Run-off Property-Liability segment remains exposed to legacy asbestos and environmental claims 1.
Opportunities
- Expanding Affordable, Simple and Connected products across more states and digital channels could raise market share 13.
- Growing Protection Services internationally, especially consumer product protection plans, could add revenue 23.
- Telematics and mobility data analytics could improve pricing and reduce customer acquisition costs 1.
Risks
- Claim reserve adequacyhigh
Ultimate claims costs may differ from recorded reserves, and reserve revisions could affect results and financial condition 1.
- Catastrophe eventshigh
Hurricanes, earthquakes and wildfires could produce large losses and pressure liquidity and credit ratings 13.
- Investment market riskmedium
Volatility in markets, interest rates and credit could reduce investment income and produce realized or unrealized losses 12.
- Rate regulationmedium
If regulators limit rate increases or require participation in assigned risk plans, margins could fall 1.
- Cybersecuritylow
Cybersecurity and privacy events could damage reputation and raise operating costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If policy and premium growth continues and underwriting results stay strong, profitability could support solid growth in equity 13.
- Second-quarter 2026 results show improving margins and higher protection services revenue, which could strengthen diversification 3.
- Transformative Growth could raise market share if it lowers costs and expands distribution through digital and independent channels 12.
What would break the thesis
- If catastrophe events become more frequent or severe, losses could reduce underwriting results and pressure capital 1.
- Competitive pressure and rate regulation could limit premium growth, while claims costs could outpace pricing 12.
- Financial market volatility could reduce investment income and produce significant unrealized losses 12.
What to watch
- Quarterly results and Property-Liability combined ratioQ3 2026
- Catastrophe losses during the late summer and autumn seasonQ3 2026
- Rollout of Affordable, Simple and Connected products in remaining states2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
Reportable segments are Allstate Protection, Run-off Property-Liability, Protection Services and Corporate 1. Total revenue reached 67.69 billion USD in 2025, up 5.6% from 2024 1, and second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 11.8% year over year 3. Net income applicable to common shareholders was 10.17 billion USD in 2025 1.
The Transformative Growth program targets low cost affordable, simple and connected protection, with distribution through exclusive agents, independent agents and the direct channel 1. The company expects availability of these products to expand across more states through 2026 13.
Segments
Market context
The US personal lines insurance market is highly competitive, and Allstate ranked as the third largest personal property and casualty insurer in the country by 2024 statutory direct premiums written 1. Market share is measured on statutory direct written premium and differs between auto and homeowners 1.
Demand and cost depend on repair costs, construction inflation and the frequency of catastrophe events, and in 2026 energy costs and tariffs added pressure on claims costs and customer affordability 2. The company reports that expansion relies on broader distribution and investment in customer acquisition 2.
Trends
- Policy and premium growthtailwind
Policies in force rose to 215.9 million in the second quarter of 2026 3 and property-liability earned premiums grew 4.0% in the quarter 3. This growth supports revenue if pricing discipline holds.
- Catastrophe and severe weatherheadwind
Catastrophe losses remain volatile: they fell in the second quarter of 2026 from the prior year, but could rise if severe weather intensifies, affecting underwriting results 13.
- Tariffs and cost inflationmixed
Auto repair and building material costs are rising under tariff and supply chain pressure, which could raise claims costs if premiums do not keep pace 12.
- Digitalization and telematicstailwind
Greater use of telematics and digital tools for pricing and distribution could lower costs and improve customer retention if it expands successfully across states 1.
Competitive position
Competition runs on underwriting, advertising, price, customer service and innovation, and rivals may cut prices or launch more sophisticated products, which could affect Allstate's growth and retention 1. The market is dominated by a few large personal lines carriers, and the company measures its position using published statutory data 1.
Allstate differentiates through its exclusive agency network, direct channel and well known brand, but competitors in the independent channel and digital insurers can attack price segments 1. Over the longer term its position depends on keeping costs low and extending distribution 1.
- Progressive CorporationPGR
US auto and personal lines insurer named as a principal competitor in auto and homeowners market share data in the source analysed 1.
- State Farm
US mutual personal lines insurer named among principal competitors in auto and homeowners market share rankings 1.
- GEICO (Berkshire Hathaway)
US direct auto insurer relevant to price competition in personal auto 1.
- Liberty Mutual
US personal and commercial insurer present among principal competitors in the personal lines market 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Jul 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Allstate Corporation (The Allstate Corporation) · 20 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Allstate Corporation (The Allstate Corporation) · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Allstate Corporation (The Allstate Corporation) · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.