olivLaw · US equity research
The Travelers Companies, Inc. TRV
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance · SIC 6331 · Vertical: Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance (SIC 6331)
The Travelers Companies is one of the oldest insurance organizations in the United States, providing property and casualty coverage to businesses, government units and individuals. It closed fiscal 2025 with net income of $6.29 billion, and its third-quarter 2026 combined ratio of 86.8% shows why underwriting discipline matters amid catastrophe volatility.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) stock was 409.25 USD (+3.50% on the day), with market capitalisation 83.9 bn USD, P/E 10.7 on diluted EPS of 38.24 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.73%, beta 0.32, 52-week range 269.42–409.25 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 12.4 bn USD (−0.5% YoY), net income of 1.9 bn USD (+1.5% YoY), diluted EPS 9.04 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 68.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 366.61 – 414.21
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.90 · band width 12.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 376.57 / 331.82
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 8.19 / 7.61
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.5% | −1.1% | +14.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +7.0% | −0.5% | +7.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +35.7% | +4.4% | +31.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +41.1% | +12.3% | +28.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +47.6% | +13.5% | +34.1 pp | +7.3% |
| 3 years | +143.0% | +76.4% | +66.6 pp | +58.6% |
| 5 years | +156.4% | +63.7% | +92.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.0 bn | 11.8 bn | 12.1 bn | 12.5 bn | 12.4 bn | 11.9 bn | 12.2 bn | 12.4 bn |
| SG&A | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 163.0 m | 188.0 m | 164.0 m ≈ | 166.0 m ≈ | 162.0 m | 193.0 m | 170.0 m ≈ | 174.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 98.0 m | 99.0 m | 99.0 m | 111.0 m | 116.0 m | 116.0 m | 113.0 m | 118.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 2.6 bn | 468.0 m | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Income tax | 512.0 m | 73.0 m | 372.0 m | 456.0 m | 607.0 m | 408.0 m | 559.0 m | 452.0 m |
| Net income | 2.1 bn | 395.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.9 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 9.03 ≈ | 1.70 | 6.53 | 8.24 | 11.16 ≈ | 7.78 | 10.26 | 9.04 |
| Operating cash flow | 2.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.3 bn ≈ | 4.2 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.9 bn ≈ | 3.9 bn ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 240.0 m | 240.0 m | 250.0 m ≈ | 247.0 m ≈ | 242.0 m | 237.0 m | 263.0 m ≈ | 259.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 256.0 m | 250.0 m | 500.0 m ≈ | 619.0 m ≈ | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 16 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 8.7, median 12.5, max 18.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 30.3 bn | 31.6 bn | 32.0 bn | 34.8 bn | 36.9 bn | 41.4 bn | 46.4 bn | 48.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +4.8% | +4.3% | +1.3% | +8.9% | +5.9% | +12.1% | +12.2% | +5.2% |
| Net income | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 6.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | +22.7% | +3.9% | +2.9% | +35.8% | −22.4% | +5.2% | +67.1% | +25.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 9.28 | 9.92 | 10.52 | 14.49 | 11.77 | 12.79 | 21.47 | 27.43 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +26.6% | +6.9% | +6.0% | +37.7% | −18.8% | +8.7% | +67.9% | +27.8% |
| net % | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 12.9% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 842.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 300.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -542.0 m USD
- Equity
- 32.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 143.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.01x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 20.7%
- ROA
- 4.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 3.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 6.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 10.52 | 14.49 | 11.77 | 12.79 | 21.47 | 27.43 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 721.0 m | 761.0 m | 799.0 m | 650.0 m | 699.0 m | 842.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 116.8 bn | 120.5 bn | 115.7 bn | 126.0 bn | 133.2 bn | 143.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 100.0 m | 100.0 m | 100.0 m | 100.0 m | 100.0 m | 300.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 87.6 bn | 91.6 bn | 94.2 bn | 101.1 bn | 105.3 bn | 110.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 29.2 bn † | 28.9 bn † | 21.6 bn † | 24.9 bn † | 27.9 bn † | 32.9 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 861.0 m | 869.0 m | 875.0 m | 908.0 m | 951.0 m | 979.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 625.0 m | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 958.0 m | 1.0 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 65 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 83.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation41
- Returns10
- Quality82
- Balance sheet100
- Growth99
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 37.19 – 609.73 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income204.57 – 214.52 (Mid 209.46)
- Justified P/B453.39 – 609.73 (Mid 520.06)
- Dividend discount (DDM)37.19 – 50.01 (Mid 42.66)
- Peers: P/E342.44 – 524.61 (Mid 452.14)11 companies used · median multiple 11.8x · quartiles 9.0x – 13.7xACGL, AIG, ALL, CB, CINF, EG, HIG, L, MKL, PGR, WRB
- Peers: P/B176.59 – 276.69 (Mid 238.67)10 companies used · median multiple 1.7x · quartiles 1.2x – 2.0xACGL, AIG, ALL, CB, CINF, EG, HIG, L, MKL, WRB
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 65/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 27.5% | 82 (vs peers) | 22% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 32.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 9.8% | 98 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 5.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/B · Valuation | 2.9x | 18 (vs peers) | 17% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.7x | 64 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 0.7% | 10 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth99/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial82/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns· partial10/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation41/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 5.2%; net margin 17.0%; ROE 27.5%.
The estimated value range is 204.57–276.69 USD per share (median of 5 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 238.67 USD, the price of 409.25 USD leaves a potential of -41.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -71.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 65/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: quality, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROE: 27.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 32.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.8%
- ROA: 5.8%
What contradicts it
- P/B: 2.9x
- Dividend yield: 0.7%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio, Payout ratio (EPS).
Versus the vertical median
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance (SIC 6331) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 10.4 bn and 664.7 bn (within 8× of the company's); 46 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBChubb Limited | 143.0 bn | 13.1 | 15.5% | 18.2% | +6.5% | +26% / +63% |
| PGRProgressive Corp | 136.0 bn | 11.8 | 33.2% | 12.7% | +16.3% | +3% / +43% |
| TRVTravelers Companies, Inc. | 83.9 bn | 10.7 | 27.5% | 17.0% | +5.2% | +48% / +143% |
| ALLAllstate Corp | 66.6 bn | 6.1 | 38.9% | 16.6% | +5.6% | +26% / +95% |
| AIGAmerican International Group, Inc. | 42.4 bn | 13.3 | 8.2% | 11.9% | −1.7% | +7% / +24% |
| HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | 36.9 bn | 8.3 | 24.7% | 15.4% | +6.9% | +1% / +77% |
| ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | 36.0 bn | 9.0 | 18.7% | 23.3% | +14.3% | +18% / +32% |
| CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | 29.2 bn | 11.2 | 16.9% | 20.1% | +11.4% | +14% / +85% |
| WRBBerkley W R Corp | 28.5 bn | 16.2 | 19.2% | 12.5% | +7.8% | −1% / +59% |
| MKLMarkel Group Inc. | 23.9 bn | 14.1 | 9.8% | 11.4% | +4.7% | −6% / +36% |
| LLoews Corp | 22.6 bn | 15.4 | 8.1% | 7.9% | +5.4% | +4% / +59% |
| EGEverest Group, Ltd. | 15.6 bn | 8.9 | 12.8% | 11.7% | +1.2% | +34% / +3% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TRV from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 270.91 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 477.79 Total return 17% · Per year 17% | 718.10 Total return 75% · Per year 75% |
| 3 years | 291.69 Total return -29% · Per year -11% | 576.05 Total return 41% · Per year 12% | 946.42 Total return 131% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 314.07 Total return -23% · Per year -5% | 694.51 Total return 70% · Per year 11% | 1,247.34 Total return 205% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 144.01
- Net margin± 100.81
- Annual revenue growth± 78.75
- Annual dilution± 8.47
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
The Travelers Companies is one of the oldest insurance organizations in the United States, providing property and casualty coverage to businesses, government units and individuals. It closed fiscal 2025 with net income of $6.29 billion, and its third-quarter 2026 combined ratio of 86.8% shows why underwriting discipline matters amid catastrophe volatility 13.
SWOT
Strengths
- Long operating history dating back well over a century, with an extensive network of independent agents and brokers 1.
- Disciplined underwriting and a balance sheet described as strong, with substantial holding company liquidity 12.
- Strong operating results in the third quarter of 2026, with an excellent combined ratio 3.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Catastrophe losseshigh
Catastrophe losses can materially affect results in a given year and reduce available capital if events are severe 1.
- Loss reserveshigh
Reserves are estimates and may prove insufficient if inflation or litigation rises, requiring later increases 1.
- Regulation and residual marketsmedium
State authorities may require participation in residual markets or limit rate increases, affecting profitability 1.
- Credit riskmedium
Some large deductible and retrospectively rated contracts expose the company to customer nonpayment, although collateral is generally obtained 1.
- Cyber and technology riskmedium
A widespread cyber event could produce losses that are difficult to model, especially for newer products 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- Catastrophe losses and reserve developmentQ4 2026
- Pace of net written premium growth in Business Insurance2027
- Portfolio yields and Bond & Specialty resultsQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Underwriting emphasizes product returns and profitable growth over time rather than premium volume or market share 1. Rates are subject to state approval requirements that seek to keep them from being excessive or inadequate 1. Products are distributed through independent agents and brokers, as well as direct-to-consumer, affinity and partner platforms 1.
Travelers agreed in May 2025 to sell its Canadian personal insurance business and most of its Canadian commercial business to Definity Financial, closing on January 2, 2026, while retaining its Canadian surety business 12. This transaction helps explain changes in premium comparisons for 2026 23.
Segments
Market context
Trends
- Catastrophes and climate changeheadwind
Catastrophe frequency and severity are viewed as rising, and catastrophe losses reached $3.69 billion in fiscal 2025 1. If this trend continues, reinsurance costs and capital needs could grow, although catastrophe losses in the first nine months of 2026 were lower than a year earlier 12.
- Pricing and renewal ratesmixed
Renewal premium increases and strong retention can support margins, but could weaken if competition reduces prices 3. The company described third-quarter 2026 renewal premium change in Business Insurance as orderly 3.
- Investment incometailwind
Net investment income rose in fiscal 2025 and in the first nine months of 2026, helped by higher long-term yields on fixed maturity holdings 12. If long-term yields hold, investment income could keep supporting earnings 2.
- Claims cost inflationheadwind
Recent inflation significantly increased loss costs, particularly in long-tail lines such as general liability and workers' compensation 1. If inflation runs above expectations, reserves could need to be raised 1.
Competitive position
Competition centers on price, service, product breadth, agent and broker relationships, claims speed and perceived financial strength 1. Alternative risk products such as large deductible programs and captive insurers also compete directly for commercial clients 1.
Travelers competes with both domestic and foreign insurers, and its geographic scope and local presence are cited as advantages 1. The sources do not give a ranked comparison of competitors, so no precise conclusions about each rival's position can be drawn.
- Other US property and casualty insurers
The sources refer to domestic competitors in general terms without naming them, so no ticker is given.
- Foreign insurers active in the US market
Described generally in the filing without naming specific companies.
- Alternative risk providers such as captives and risk retention groups
Mentioned as competing structures, without named entities in the text.
- Lloyd's market participants
Travelers also writes business at Lloyd's, where it competes with other syndicates, but none are named in the sources.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Booking.com Bets Travelers Will Research With AI but Book With ItSkift · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Gulf Hotels’ Peak Season Stalls as Travelers Wait Out the U.S. MidtermsSkift · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- As US airlines deploy AI pricing tools, startups help travelers cash in on fare dropsCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- American & United Airlines Continue Price Hikes For Solo Travelers, Report FindsSimple Flying · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Southwest Priority Credit Card review: Valuable perks for frequent Southwest travelersThe Points Guy · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- 6 Places in the US Where Travelers Can Hunt, Fish, or Forage for Their Own FoodConde Nast Traveler · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- The surprising new way scammers are fooling Google and cheating travelers out of thousands of dollarsThe Points Guy · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- UAE Travelers Hesitate After Houthi Attacks But Aren’t CancelingSkift · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
- American Airlines Replaced Its 84-Mile Chicago Bus With Bombardier CRJ700 Jets After Travelers Booked 'Flights' That Weren'tSimple Flying · 25 Oct 2026 · EN
- Welcome , World Travelers : What Critics Are Saying About Animal Kingdom New Better Zoogether Show Entertainment & LifestyleSurge — GDELT DOC · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Cruise lines chase luxury travelers with suites for up to $25,000 a nightCNBC — Top News · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- United Airlines slashes 2026 profit outlook on fuel prices, but travelers keep booking despite higher faresCNBC — Top News · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- AI Will Know Your Travelers. And the World’s Travelers. Will You?Skift · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- UK’s India Growth Plan Means Getting Travelers Out of LondonSkift · 19 Oct 2026 · EN
- Chicago Tops Travelers’ Favorite US CitiesBloomberg Markets · 18 Oct 2026 · EN
- Tanzania tightens health screening for travelers amid Ebola concernsCGTN — World · 18 Oct 2026 · EN
- TSA pauses expansion of Gateside program that lets non-travelers through airport securityThe Points Guy · 16 Oct 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Tesla, SpaceX, Alcoa, CoreWeave, Travelers & moreCNBC — Top News · 16 Oct 2026 · EN
- A dengue vaccine is now available for travelers. Here's what you need to knowMedical Xpress · 16 Oct 2026 · EN
- How Marriott Is Investing in the Maldives to Win Indian TravelersSkift · 15 Oct 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report16 Oct 2026
- Current report16 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report24 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report17 Jul 2026
- Current report17 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report16 Apr 2026
- Current report16 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / The Travelers Companies, Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / The Travelers Companies, Inc. · 16 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Travelers Companies, Inc. · 16 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.